arXiv subjects

Matthew J. Payne

Publications and source records attributed to Matthew J. Payne.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2019

A TESS Search for Distant Solar System Planets: A Feasibility Study

As the NASA Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) fulfills its primary mission it is executing an unprecedented all-sky survey with the potential to discover distant planets in our own solar system, as well as hundreds of Transneptunian Objects (TNOs) and Centaurs. We demonstrate that shift-and-stack techniques can be used to efficiently search the Full-Frame Image (FFI) data from the TESS mission and survey the entire sky for outer Solar System objects down to $\sim22^{nd}$ magnitude.

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arXiv2019

Prospects for TTV Detection and Dynamical Constraints with TESS

We consider the potential for the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) to detect transit timing variations (TTVs) during both its nominal and extended mission phases. Building on previous estimates of the overall yield of planetary systems from the TESS mission, we predict that during its nominal two-year mission, TESS will observe measurable TTVs in $\sim30$ systems, from which $\mathcal{O}(10)$ planet will get precise mass measurements from TTVs alone, $\sim 5$ planets will have significant constraints placed on their masses from TTVs, and over a dozen systems will be singly-transiting TTV systems. We consider a number of different extended mission scenarios, and predict that in a typical scenario, an extended mission will allow TESS to increase the number of systems with measurable TTVs to a total of $\sim90$, from which $\sim 15$ planets will have precise mass measurements, another $\sim 15$ will have significant constraints placed on their masses, and $\sim60$ will be singly-transiting TTV systems. We also describe how follow-up transit observations of multi-planet systems discovered by the TESS mission can be optimally planned to maximize TTV mass and eccentricity constraints.

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arXiv2019

The digest2 NEO Classification Code

We describe the digest2 software package, a fast, short-arc orbit classifier for small Solar System bodies. The digest2 algorithm has been serving the community for more than 13 years. The code provides a score, D2, which represents a pseudo-probability that a tracklet belongs to a given Solar System orbit type. digest2 is primarily used as a classifier for Near-Earth Object (NEO) candidates, to identify those to be prioritized for follow-up observation. We describe the historical development of digest2 and demonstrate its use on real and synthetic data. We find that digest2 can accurately and precisely distinguish NEOs from non- NEOs. At the time of detection, 14% of NEO tracklets and 98.5% of non-NEOs tracklets have D2 below the critical value of D2 = 65. 94% of our simulated NEOs achieved the maximum D2 = 100 and 99.6% of NEOs achieved $D2 \ge 65$ at least once during the simulated 10-year timeframe. We demonstrate that D2 varies as a function of time, rate of motion, magnitude and sky-plane location, and show that NEOs tend to have lower D2 at low Solar elongations close to the ecliptic. We use our findings to recommend future development directions for the digest2 code.

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arXiv2019

The Solar Neighborhood XLV. The Stellar Multiplicity Rate of M Dwarfs Within 25 pc

We present results of the largest, most comprehensive study ever done of the stellar multiplicity of the most common stars in the Galaxy, the red dwarfs. We have conducted an all-sky, volume-limited survey for stellar companions to 1120 M dwarf primaries known to lie within 25 pc of the Sun via trigonometric parallaxes. In addition to a comprehensive literature search, stars were explored in new surveys for companions at separations of 2" to 300". A reconnaissance of wide companions to separations of 300" was done via blinking archival images. I-band images were used to search our sample for companions at separations of 2" to 180". Various astrometric and photometric methods were used to probe the inner 2" to reveal close companions. We report the discovery of 20 new companions and identify 56 candidate multiple systems. We find a stellar multiplicity rate of 26.8 +/- 1.4% and a stellar companion rate of 32.4 +/- 1.4% for M dwarfs. There is a broad peak in the separation distribution of the companions at 4 -- 20 AU, with a weak trend of smaller projected linear separations for lower mass primaries. A hint that M dwarf multiplicity may be a function of tangential velocity is found, with faster moving, presumably older, stars found to be multiple somewhat less often. We calculate that stellar companions make up at least 17% of mass attributed to M dwarfs in the solar neighborhood, with roughly 11% of M dwarf mass hidden as unresolved companions. Finally, when considering all M dwarf primaries and companions, we find that the mass distribution for M dwarfs increases to the end of the stellar main sequence.

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arXiv2018

Prospects for Refining Kepler TTV Masses using TESS Observations

In this paper we investigate systems previously identified to exhibit transit timing variations (TTVs) in Kepler data, with the goal of predicting the expected improvements to the mass and eccentricity constraints that will arise from combining Kepler data with future data from the TESS mission. We advocate for the use of the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence as a means to quantify improvements in the measured constraints. Compared to the original Kepler data, the TESS data will have a lower signal-to-noise ratio, rendering some of the planetary transits undetectable, and lowering the accuracy with which the transit mid-time can be estimated. Despite these difficulties, out of the 55 systems (containing 143 planets) investigated, we predict that the collection of short-cadence data by TESS will be of significant value (i.e. it will improve the mass uncertainty such that the KL divergence is > 0.1) for approximately 6 - 14 planets during the nominal mission, with the range primarily driven by the uncertain precision with which transit mid-times will be recovered from TESS data. In an extended mission this would increase to a total of approximately 12 - 25 planets.

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arXiv2018

Unconfirmed Near-Earth Objects

We studied the Near-Earth Asteroid (NEA) candidates posted on the Minor Planet Center's Near-Earth Object Confirmation Page (NEOCP) between years 2013 and 2016. Out of more than 17,000 NEA candidates, while the majority became either new discoveries or were associated with previously known objects, about 11% were unable to be followed-up or confirmed. We further demonstrate that of the unconfirmed candidates, 926+/-50 are likely to be NEAs, representing 18% of discovered NEAs in that period. Only 11% (~93) of the unconfirmed NEA candidates were large (having absolute magnitude H<22). To identify the reasons why these NEAs were not recovered, we analyzed those from the most prolific asteroid surveys: Pan-STARRS, the Catalina Sky Survey, the Dark Energy Survey, and the Space Surveillance Telescope. We examined the influence of plane-of-sky positions and rates of motion, brightnesses, submission delays, and computed absolute magnitudes, as well as correlations with the phase of the moon and seasonal effects. We find that delayed submission of newly discovered NEA candidate to the NEOCP drove a large fraction of the unconfirmed NEA candidates. A high rate of motion was another significant contributing factor. We suggest that prompt submission of suspected NEA discoveries and rapid response to fast moving targets and targets with fast growing ephemeris uncertainty would allow better coordination among dedicated follow-up observers, decrease the number of unconfirmed NEA candidates, and increase the discovery rate of NEAs.

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arXiv2018

Finding Asteroids Down the Back of the Couch: A Novel Approach to the Minor Planet Linking Problem

We present a novel approach to the minor planet linking problem. Our heliocentric transformation-and-propagation algorithm clusters tracklets at common epochs, allowing for the efficient identification of tracklets that represent the same minor planet. This algorithm scales as $O(N log N)$, with the number of tracklets $N$, a significant advance over standard methods, which scale as $O(N^3)$. This overcomes one of the primary computational bottlenecks faced by current and future asteroid surveys. We apply our algorithm to the Minor Planet Center's Isolated Tracklet File, establishing orbits for $\sim41,000$ new minor planets.

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arXiv2018

Chaotic Dynamics of Trans-Neptunian Objects Perturbed by Planet Nine

Observations of clustering among the orbits of the most distant trans-Neptunian objects (TNOs) has inspired interest in the possibility of an undiscovered ninth planet lurking in the outskirts of the solar system. Numerical simulations by a number of authors have demonstrated that, with appropriate choices of planet mass and orbit, such a planet can maintain clustering in the orbital elements of the population of distant TNOs, similar to the observed sample. However, many aspects of the rich underlying dynamical processes induced by such a distant eccentric perturber have not been fully explored. We report the results of our investigation of the dynamics of coplanar test-particles that interact with a massive body on an circular orbit (Neptune) and a massive body on a more distant, highly eccentric orbit (the putative Planet Nine). We find that a detailed examination of our idealized simulations affords tremendous insight into the rich test-particle dynamics that are possible. In particular, we find that chaos and resonance overlap plays an important role in particles' dynamical evolution. We develop a simple mapping model that allows us to understand, in detail, the web of overlapped mean-motion resonances explored by chaotically evolving particles. We also demonstrate that gravitational interactions with Neptune can have profound effects on the orbital evolution of particles. Our results serve as a starting point for a better understanding of the dynamical behavior observed in more complicated simulations that can be used to constrain the mass and orbit of Planet 9.

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arXiv2017

A dwarf planet class object in the 21:5 resonance with Neptune

We report the discovery of a $H_r = 3.4\pm0.1$ dwarf planet candidate by the Pan-STARRS Outer Solar System Survey. 2010 JO$_{179}$ is red with $(g-r)=0.88 \pm 0.21$, roughly round, and slowly rotating, with a period of $30.6$ hr. Estimates of its albedo imply a diameter of 600--900~km. Observations sampling the span between 2005--2016 provide an exceptionally well-determined orbit for 2010 JO$_{179}$, with a semi-major axis of $78.307\pm0.009$ au, distant orbits known to this precision are rare. We find that 2010 JO$_{179}$ librates securely within the 21:5 mean-motion resonance with Neptune on hundred-megayear time scales, joining the small but growing set of known distant dwarf planets on metastable resonant orbits. These imply a substantial trans-Neptunian population that shifts between stability in high-order resonances, the detached population, and the eroding population of the scattering disk.

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arXiv2016

The Fate of Exomoons in White Dwarf Planetary Systems

Roughly 1000 white dwarfs are known to be polluted with planetary material, and the progenitors of this material are typically assumed to be asteroids. The dynamical architectures which perturb asteroids into white dwarfs are still unknown, but may be crucially dependent on moons liberated from parent planets during post-main-sequence gravitational scattering. Here, we trace the fate of these exomoons, and show that they more easily achieve deep radial incursions towards the white dwarf than do scattered planets. Consequently, moons are likely to play a significant role in white dwarf pollution, and in some cases may be the progenitors of the pollution itself.

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arXiv2016

Discovery of A New Retrograde Trans-Neptunian Object: Hint of A Common Orbital Plane for Low Semi-Major Axis, High Inclination TNOs and Centaurs

Although the majority of Centaurs are thought to have originated in the scattered disk, with the high-inclination members coming from the Oort cloud, the origin of the high inclination component of trans-Neptunian objects (TNOs) remains uncertain. We report the discovery of a retrograde TNO, which we nickname "Niku", detected by the Pan-STARRS 1 Outer Solar System Survey. Our numerical integrations show that the orbital dynamics of Niku are very similar to that of 2008 KV$_{42}$ (Drac), with a half-life of $\sim 500$ Myr. Comparing similar high inclination TNOs and Centaurs ($q > 10$ AU, $a < 100$ AU and $i > 60^\circ$), we find that these objects exhibit a surprising clustering of ascending node, and occupy a common orbital plane. This orbital configuration has high statistical significance: 3.8-$σ$. An unknown mechanism is required to explain the observed clustering. This discovery may provide a pathway to investigate a possible reservoir of high-inclination objects.

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arXiv2016

Observational Constraints on Planet Nine: Cassini Range Observations

We significantly constrain the sky position, distance, and mass of a possible additional, distant planet in the solar system by examining its influence on the distance between Earth and the Cassini Spacecraft. Our preferred region is approximately centered on (RA, Dec) = ($40\arcdeg$, $-15\arcdeg$), extending approximately 20 degrees in all directions.

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arXiv2016

Liberating exomoons in white dwarf planetary systems

Previous studies indicate that more than a quarter of all white dwarf (WD) atmospheres are polluted by remnant planetary material, with some WDs being observed to accrete the mass of Pluto in 10^6 years. The short sinking timescale for the pollutants indicate that the material must be frequently replenished. Moons may contribute decisively to this pollution process if they are liberated from their parent planets during the post-main-sequence evolution of the planetary systems. Here, we demonstrate that gravitational scattering events among planets in WD systems easily triggers moon ejection. Repeated close encounters within tenths of a planetary Hill radii are highly destructive to even the most massive, close-in moons. Consequently, scattering increases both the frequency of perturbing agents in WD systems, as well as the available mass of polluting material in those systems, thereby enhancing opportunities for collision and fragmentation and providing more dynamical pathways for smaller bodies to reach the WD. Moreover, during intense scattering, planets themselves have pericenters with respect to the WD of only a fraction of an AU, causing extreme Hill-sphere contraction, and the liberation of moons into WD-grazing orbits. Many of our results are directly applicable to exomoons orbiting planets around main sequence stars.

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arXiv2016

Observational Constraints on Planet Nine: Astrometry of Pluto and Other Trans-Neptunian Objects

We use astrometry of Pluto and other TNOs to constrain the sky location, distance, and mass of the possible additional planet (Planet Nine) hypothesized by Batygin and Brown (2016). We find that over broad regions of the sky, the inclusion of a massive, distant planet degrades the fits to the observations. However, in other regions, the fits are significantly improved by the addition of such a planet. Our best fits suggest a planet that is either more massive or closer than argued for by Batygin and Brown (2016) based on the orbital distribution of distant trans-neptunian objects (or by Fienga et al. (2016) based on range measured to the Cassini spacecraft). The trend to favor larger and closer perturbing planets is driven by the residuals to the astrometry of Pluto, remeasured from photographic plates using modern stellar catalogs (Buie and Folkner 2015), which show a clear trend in declination, over the course of two decades, that drive a preference for large perturbations. Although this trend may be the result of systematic errors of unknown origin in the observations, a possible resolution is that the declination trend may be due to perturbations from a body, additional to Planet Nine , that is closer to Pluto, but less massive than, Planet Nine .

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arXiv2015

An Empirically Derived Three-Dimensional Laplace Resonance in the Gliese 876 Planetary System

We report constraints on the three-dimensional orbital architecture for all four planets known to orbit the nearby M dwarf Gliese 876 based solely on Doppler measurements and demanding long-term orbital stability. Our dataset incorporates publicly available radial velocities taken with the ELODIE and CORALIE spectrographs, HARPS, and Keck HIRES as well as previously unpublished HIRES velocities. We first quantitatively assess the validity of the planets thought to orbit GJ 876 by computing the Bayes factors for a variety of different coplanar models using an importance sampling algorithm. We find that a four-planet model is preferred over a three-planet model. Next, we apply a Newtonian MCMC algorithm to perform a Bayesian analysis of the planet masses and orbits using an n-body model in three-dimensional space. Based on the radial velocities alone, we find that a 99% credible interval provides upper limits on the mutual inclinations for the three resonant planets ($Φ_{cb}<6.20^\circ$ for the "c" and "b" pair and $Φ_{be}<28.5^\circ$ for the "b" and "e" pair). Subsequent dynamical integrations of our posterior sample find that the GJ 876 planets must be roughly coplanar ($Φ_{cb}<2.60^\circ$ and $Φ_{be}<7.87^\circ$), suggesting the amount of planet-planet scattering in the system has been low. We investigate the distribution of the respective resonant arguments of each planet pair and find that at least one argument for each planet pair and the Laplace argument librate. The libration amplitudes in our three-dimensional orbital model supports the idea of the outer-three planets having undergone significant past disk migration.

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arXiv2015

Kepler-432: a red giant interacting with one of its two long period giant planets

We report the discovery of Kepler-432b, a giant planet ($M_b = 5.41^{+0.32}_{-0.18} M_{\rm Jup}, R_b = 1.145^{+0.036}_{-0.039} R_{\rm Jup}$) transiting an evolved star $(M_\star = 1.32^{+0.10}_{-0.07} M_\odot, R_\star = 4.06^{+0.12}_{-0.08} R_\odot)$ with an orbital period of $P_b = 52.501129^{+0.000067}_{-0.000053}$ days. Radial velocities (RVs) reveal that Kepler-432b orbits its parent star with an eccentricity of $e = 0.5134^{+0.0098}_{-0.0089}$, which we also measure independently with asterodensity profiling (AP; $e=0.507^{+0.039}_{-0.114}$), thereby confirming the validity of AP on this particular evolved star. The well-determined planetary properties and unusually large mass also make this planet an important benchmark for theoretical models of super-Jupiter formation. Long-term RV monitoring detected the presence of a non-transiting outer planet (Kepler-432c; $M_c \sin{i_c} = 2.43^{+0.22}_{-0.24} M_{\rm Jup}, P_c = 406.2^{+3.9}_{-2.5}$ days), and adaptive optics imaging revealed a nearby (0\farcs87), faint companion (Kepler-432B) that is a physically bound M dwarf. The host star exhibits high signal-to-noise asteroseismic oscillations, which enable precise measurements of the stellar mass, radius and age. Analysis of the rotational splitting of the oscillation modes additionally reveals the stellar spin axis to be nearly edge-on, which suggests that the stellar spin is likely well-aligned with the orbit of the transiting planet. Despite its long period, the obliquity of the 52.5-day orbit may have been shaped by star-planet interaction in a manner similar to hot Jupiter systems, and we present observational and theoretical evidence to support this scenario. Finally, as a short-period outlier among giant planets orbiting giant stars, study of Kepler-432b may help explain the distribution of massive planets orbiting giant stars interior to 1 AU.

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arXiv2014

Newly-Discovered Planets Orbiting HD~5319, HD~11506, HD~75784 and HD~10442 from the N2K Consortium

Initially designed to discover short-period planets, the N2K campaign has since evolved to discover new worlds at large separations from their host stars. Detecting such worlds will help determine the giant planet occurrence at semi-major axes beyond the ice line, where gas giants are thought to mostly form. Here we report four newly-discovered gas giant planets (with minimum masses ranging from 0.4 to 2.1 MJup) orbiting stars monitored as part of the N2K program. Two of these planets orbit stars already known to host planets: HD 5319 and HD 11506. The remaining discoveries reside in previously-unknown planetary systems: HD 10442 and HD 75784. The refined orbital period of the inner planet orbiting HD 5319 is 641 days. The newly-discovered outer planet orbits in 886 days. The large masses combined with the proximity to a 4:3 mean motion resonance make this system a challenge to explain with current formation and migration theories. HD 11506 has one confirmed planet, and here we confirm a second. The outer planet has an orbital period of 1627.5 days, and the newly-discovered inner planet orbits in 223.6 days. A planet has also been discovered orbiting HD 75784 with an orbital period of 341.7 days. There is evidence for a longer period signal; however, several more years of observations are needed to put tight constraints on the Keplerian parameters for the outer planet. Lastly, an additional planet has been detected orbiting HD 10442 with a period of 1043 days.

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arXiv2014

Formation of irregular and runaway moons/exomoons through moon-moon scattering

Gas giant planets in the Solar system host large satellite systems with multiple regular and irregular moons. Regular moons revolve around their host planet in circular, low inclination short period orbits, and are thought to form in-situ through coagulation processes. In contrast, irregular moons have highly inclined (and even retrograde), typically eccentric and long period orbits around their host planet. Irregular moons are therefore often thought to be unbound objects in helio-centric orbits that were later captured to their current orbits around the planet. Here we study the a different possibility in which regular moons form in-situ, and dynamically evolve through mutual moon-moon scattering. We find that such evolution can excite the satellites into high eccentricities and inclinations. We find that moons are either ejected from the host planet to become runaway moons, or stay bound and become prograde orbiting irregular moons with inclined and eccentric orbits around their host planet. Ejected moons, unbound to the planet, can later be temporarily re-captured by the host planet even at retrograde orbits. Such moons are eventually re-ejected from the system or collide with the planet, at least in the absence of dissipative processes (e.g. collisions with existing bound moons, a debris disk or through tidal interactions with the host planet), not currently modeled. Uncaptured runaway moons may eventually be ejected from the Solar system, or be captured into stable helio-centric orbits and contribute to the populations of asteroidal or trans-Neptunian objects. Such scenarios are potentially relevant both for the gas-giant satellites in the Solar system and for the dynamical evolution of exomoons.

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