arXiv subjects

Matthew J. Payne

Publications and source records attributed to Matthew J. Payne.

53 records · Page 3Linked to original sources

arXiv2014

The 55 Cancri Planetary System: Fully Self-Consistent N-body Constraints and a Dynamical Analysis

We present an updated study of the planets known to orbit 55 Cancri A using 1,418 high-precision radial velocity observations from four observatories (Lick, Keck, Hobby-Eberly Telescope, Harlan J. Smith Telescope) and transit time/durations for the inner-most planet, 55 Cancri "e" (Winn et al. 2011). We provide the first posterior sample for the masses and orbital parameters based on self-consistent n-body orbital solutions for the 55 Cancri planets, all of which are dynamically stable (for at least $10^8$ years). We apply a GPU version of Radial velocity Using N-body Differential evolution Markov Chain Monte Carlo (RUN DMC; B. Nelson et al. 2014) to perform a Bayesian analysis of the radial velocity and transit observations. Each of the planets in this remarkable system has unique characteristics. Our investigation of high-cadence radial velocities and priors based on space-based photometry yields an updated mass estimate for planet "e" ($8.09\pm0.26$ M$_\oplus$), which affects its density ($5.51\pm^{1.32}_{1.00}$ g cm$^{-3}$) and inferred bulk composition. Dynamical stability dictates that the orbital plane of planet "e" must be aligned to within $60^o$ of the orbital plane of the outer planets (which we assume to be coplanar). The mutual interactions between the planets "b" and "c" may develop an apsidal lock about $180^o$. We find 36-45% of all our model systems librate about the anti-aligned configuration with an amplitude of $51^o\pm^{6^o}_{10^o}$. Other cases showed short-term perturbations in the libration of $\varpi_b-\varpi_c$, circulation, and nodding, but we find the planets are not in a 3:1 mean-motion resonance. A revised orbital period and eccentricity for planet "d" pushes it further toward the closest known Jupiter analog in the exoplanet population.

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arXiv2013

RUN DMC: An efficient, parallel code for analyzing Radial Velocity Observations using N-body Integrations and Differential Evolution Markov chain Monte Carlo

In the 20+ years of Doppler observations of stars, scientists have uncovered a diverse population of extrasolar multi-planet systems. A common technique for characterizing the orbital elements of these planets is Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), using a Keplerian model with random walk proposals and paired with the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm. For approximately a couple of dozen planetary systems with Doppler observations, there are strong planet-planet interactions due to the system being in or near a mean-motion resonance (MMR). An N-body model is often required to accurately describe these systems. Further computational difficulties arise from exploring a high-dimensional parameter space ($\sim$7 x number of planets) that can have complex parameter correlations. To surmount these challenges, we introduce a differential evolution MCMC (DEMCMC) applied to radial velocity data while incorporating self-consistent N-body integrations. Our Radial velocity Using N-body DEMCMC (RUN DMC) algorithm improves upon the random walk proposal distribution of the traditional MCMC by using an ensemble of Markov chains to adaptively improve the proposal distribution. We describe the methodology behind the algorithm, along with results of tests for accuracy and performance. We find that most algorithm parameters have a modest effect on the rate of convergence. However, the size of the ensemble can have a strong effect on performance. We show that the optimal choice depends on the number of planets in a system, as well as the computer architecture used and the resulting extent of parallelization. While the exact choices of optimal algorithm parameters will inevitably vary due to the details of individual planetary systems, we offer recommendations for choosing the DEMCMC algorithm's algorithmic parameters that result in excellent performance for a wide variety of planetary systems.

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arXiv2013

Characterizing the Orbital and Dynamical State of the HD 82943 Planetary System With Keck Radial Velocity Data

We present an updated analysis of radial velocity data of the HD 82943 planetary system based on 10 years of measurements obtained with the Keck telescope. Previous studies have shown that the HD 82943 system has two planets that are likely in 2:1 mean-motion resonance (MMR), with the orbital periods about 220 and 440 days (Lee et al. 2006). However, alternative fits that are qualitatively different have also been suggested, with two planets in a 1:1 resonance (Gozdziewski & Konacki 2006) or three planets in a Laplace 4:2:1 resonance (Beauge et al. 2008). Here we use \c{hi}2 minimization combined with parameter grid search to investigate the orbital parameters and dynamical states of the qualitatively different types of fits, and we compare the results to those obtained with the differential evolution Markov chain Monte Carlo method. Our results support the coplanar 2:1 MMR configuration for the HD 82943 system, and show no evidence for either the 1:1 or 3-planet Laplace resonance fits. The inclination of the system with respect to the sky plane is well constrained at about 20(+4.9 -5.5) degree, and the system contains two planets with masses of about 4.78 MJ and 4.80 MJ (where MJ is the mass of Jupiter) and orbital periods of about 219 and 442 days for the inner and outer planet, respectively. The best fit is dynamically stable with both eccentricity-type resonant angles θ1 and θ2 librating around 0 degree.

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arXiv2013

A Habitable Zone Census via Transit Timing and the Imperative for Continuing to Observe the Kepler Field

We propose a scientific program to complete a census of planets, characterizing their masses, orbital properties, and dynamical histories using continued observations of the Kepler field of view with the Kepler spacecraft in a two reaction wheel mission. Even with a significantly reduced photometric precision, extending time-domain observations of this field is uniquely capable of pursuing several critical science goals: 1) measuring the architectures of planetary systems by identifying non-transiting planets interleaved among known transiting planets, 2) establishing the mass-radius relationship for planets in the important transition region between small, gas-rich sub-Neptune planets and large, rocky super-Earths, and 3) uncovering dynamical evidence of the formation and evolution of the inner regions of planetary systems. To meet these objectives, the unique multi-object observing capabilities of Kepler will be used in a set of concurrent campaigns with specific motivations. These campaigns focus largely on the ability to interpret Transit Timing Variations (TTVs) that result from dynamical interactions among planets in a system and include: 1) observations of systems that exhibit large TTVs and are particularly rich in dynamical information, 2) observations of systems where additional transit times will yield mass measurements of the constituent planets, 3) observations of systems where the TTV signal evolves over very long timescales, and 4) observations of systems with long-period planet candidates where additional transits will remove orbital period ambiguities caused by gaps in the original Kepler data.

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arXiv2013

Stability of Satellites in Closely Packed Planetary Systems

We perform numerical integrations of four-body (star, planet, planet, satellite) systems to investigate the stability of satellites in planetary Systems with Tightly-packed Inner Planets (STIPs). We find that the majority of closely-spaced stable two-planet systems can stably support satellites across a range of parameter-space which is only slightly decreased compared to that seen for the single-planet case. In particular, circular prograde satellites remain stable out to $\sim 0.4 R_H$ (where $R_H$ is the Hill Radius) as opposed to $\sim 0.5 R_H$ in the single-planet case. A similarly small restriction in the stable parameter-space for retrograde satellites is observed, where planetary close approaches in the range 2.5 to 4.5 mutual Hill radii destabilize most satellites orbits only if $a\sim 0.65 R_H$. In very close planetary pairs (e.g. the 12:11 resonance) the addition of a satellite frequently destabilizes the entire system, causing extreme close-approaches and the loss of satellites over a range of circumplanetary semi-major axes. The majority of systems investigated stably harbored satellites over a wide parameter-space, suggesting that STIPs can generally offer a dynamically stable home for satellites, albeit with a slightly smaller stable parameter-space than the single-planet case. As we demonstrate that multi-planet systems are not a priori poor candidates for hosting satellites, future measurements of satellite occurrence rates in multi-planet systems versus single-planet systems could be used to constrain either satellite formation or past periods of strong dynamical interaction between planets.

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arXiv2012

The Discovery of HD 37605c and a Dispositive Null Detection of Transits of HD 37605b

We report the radial-velocity discovery of a second planetary mass companion to the K0 V star HD 37605, which was already known to host an eccentric, P~55 days Jovian planet, HD 37605b. This second planet, HD 37605c, has a period of ~7.5 years with a low eccentricity and an Msini of ~3.4 MJup. Our discovery was made with the nearly 8 years of radial velocity follow-up at the Hobby-Eberly Telescope and Keck Observatory, including observations made as part of the Transit Ephemeris Refinement and Monitoring Survey (TERMS) effort to provide precise ephemerides to long-period planets for transit follow-up. With a total of 137 radial velocity observations covering almost eight years, we provide a good orbital solution of the HD 37605 system, and a precise transit ephemeris for HD 37605b. Our dynamic analysis reveals very minimal planet-planet interaction and an insignificant transit time variation. Using the predicted ephemeris, we performed a transit search for HD 37605b with the photometric data taken by the T12 0.8-m Automatic Photoelectric Telescope (APT) and the Microvariability and Oscillations of Stars (MOST) satellite. Though the APT photometry did not capture the transit window, it characterized the stellar activity of HD 37605, which is consistent of it being an old, inactive star, with a tentative rotation period of 57.67 days. The MOST photometry enabled us to report a dispositive null detection of a non-grazing transit for this planet. Within the predicted transit window, we exclude an edge-on predicted depth of 1.9% at >>10sigma, and exclude any transit with an impact parameter b>0.951 at greater than 5sigma. We present the BOOTTRAN package for calculating Keplerian orbital parameter uncertainties via bootstrapping. We found consistency between our orbital parameters calculated by the RVLIN package and error bars by BOOTTRAN with those produced by a Bayesian analysis using MCMC.

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arXiv2012

Traditional formation scenarios fail to explain 4:3 mean motion resonances

At least two multi-planetary systems in a 4:3 mean motion resonance have been found by radial velocity surveys. These planets are gas giants and the systems are only stable when protected by a resonance. Additionally the Kepler mission has detected at least 4 strong candidate planetary systems with a period ratio close to 4:3. This paper investigates traditional dynamical scenarios for the formation of these systems. We systematically study migration scenarios with both N-body and hydro-dynamic simulations. We investigate scenarios involving the in-situ formation of two planets in resonance. We look at the results from finely tuned planet-planet scattering simulations with gas disk damping. Finally, we investigate a formation scenario involving isolation-mass embryos. Although the combined planet-planet scattering and damping scenario seems promising, none of the above scenarios is successful in forming enough systems in 4:3 resonance with planetary masses similar to the observed ones. This is a negative result but it has important implications for planet formation. Previous studies were successful in forming 2:1 and 3:2 resonances. This is generally believed to be evidence of planet migration. We highlight the main differences between those studies and our failure in forming a 4:3 resonance. We also speculate on more exotic and complicated ideas. These results will guide future investigators toward exploring the above scenarios and alternative mechanisms in a more general framework.

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arXiv2012

Interactions Between Moderate- and Long-Period Giant Planets: Scattering Experiments for Systems in Isolation and with Stellar Flybys

The chance that a planetary system will interact with another member of its host star's nascent cluster would be greatly increased if gas giant planets form in situ on wide orbits. In this paper, we explore the outcomes of planet-planet scattering for a distribution of multiplanet systems that all have one of the planets on an initial orbit of 100 AU. The scattering experiments are run with and without stellar flybys. We convolve the outcomes with distributions for protoplanetary disk and stellar cluster sizes to generalize the results where possible. We find that the frequencies of large mutual inclinations and high eccentricities are sensitive to the number of planets in a system, but not strongly to stellar flybys. However, flybys do play a role in changing the low and moderate portions of the mutual inclination distributions, and erase dynamically cold initial conditions on average. Wide-orbit planets can be mixed throughout the planetary system, and in some cases, can potentially become hot Jupiters, which we demonstrate using scattering experiments that include a tidal damping model. If planets form on wide orbits in situ, then there will be discernible differences in the proper motion distributions of a sample of wide-orbit planets compared with a pure scattering formation mechanism. Stellar flybys can enhance the frequency of ejections in planetary systems, but auto-ionization is likely to remain the dominant source of free-floating planets.

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arXiv2012

Constraining the Planetary System of Fomalhaut Using High-Resolution ALMA Observations

The dynamical evolution of planetary systems leaves observable signatures in debris disks. Optical images trace micron-sized grains, which are strongly affected by stellar radiation and need not coincide with their parent body population. Observations of mm-size grains accurately trace parent bodies, but previous images lack the resolution and sensitivity needed to characterize the ring's morphology. Here we present ALMA 350 GHz observations of the Fomalhaut debris ring. These observations demonstrate that the parent body population is 13-19 AU wide with a sharp inner and outer boundary. We discuss three possible origins for the ring, and suggest that debris confined by shepherd planets is the most consistent with the ring's morphology.

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arXiv2011

The Heavy Element Composition of Disk Instability Planets Can Range From Sub- to Super-Nebular

Transit surveys combined with Doppler data have revealed a class of gas giant planets that are massive and highly enriched in heavy elements (e.g., HD149026b, GJ436b, and HAT-P-20b). It is tempting to consider these planets as validation of core accretion plus gas capture because it is often assumed that disk instability planets should be of nebular composition. We show in this paper, to the contrary, that gas giants that form by disk instability can have a variety of heavy element compositions, ranging from sub- to super-nebular values. High levels of enrichment can be achieved through one or multiple mechanisms, including enrichment at birth, planetesimal capture, and differentiation plus tidal stripping. As a result, the metallicity of an individual gas giant cannot be used to discriminate between gas giant formation modes.

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arXiv2011

An Analysis of Jitter and Transit Timing Variations in the HAT-P-13 System

If the two planets in the HAT-P-13 system are coplanar, the orbital states provide a probe of the internal planetary structure. Previous analyses of radial velocity and transit timing data of the system suggested that the observational constraints on the orbital states were rather small. We reanalyze the available data, treating the jitter as an unknown MCMC parameter, and find that a wide range of jitter values are plausible, hence the system parameters are less well constrained than previously suggested. For slightly increased levels of jitter ($\sim 4.5\,m\,s^{-1}$) the eccentricity of the inner planet can be in the range $0<e_{inner}<0.07$, the period and eccentricity of the outer planet can be $440<P_{outer}<470$ days and $0.55<e_{outer}<0.85$ respectively, while the relative pericenter alignment, $η$, of the planets can take essentially any value $-180^{\circ}<η<+180^{\circ}$. It is therefore difficult to determine whether $e_{inner}$ and $η$ have evolved to a fixed-point state or a limit cycle, or to use $e_{inner}$ to probe the internal planetary structure. We perform various transit timing variation (TTV) analyses, demonstrating that current constraints merely restrict $e_{outer}<0.85$, and rule out relative planetary inclinations within $\sim 2^{\circ}$ of $i_{rel}=90^{\circ}$, but that future observations could significantly tighten the restriction on both these parameters. We demonstrate that TTV profiles can readily distinguish the theoretically favored inclinations of $i_{rel}=0^{\circ}\,&\,45^{\circ}$, provided that sufficiently precise and frequent transit timing observations of HAT-P-13b can be made close to the pericenter passage of HAT-P-13c. We note the relatively high probability that HAT-P-13c transits and suggest observational dates and strategies.

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arXiv2010

Quantifying the challenges of detecting unseen planetary companions with transit timing variations

Both ground and space-based transit observatories are poised to significantly increase the number of known transiting planets and the number of precisely measured transit times. The variation in a planet's transit times may be used to infer the presence of additional planets. Deducing the masses and orbital parameters of such planets from transit time variations (TTVs) alone is a rich and increasingly relevant dynamical problem. In this work, we evaluate the extent of the degeneracies in this process, systematically explore the dependence of TTV signals on several parameters and provide phase space plots that could aid observers in planning future observations. Our explorations are focused on a likely-to-be prevalent situation: a known transiting short-period Neptune or Jupiter-sized planet and a suspected external low-mass perturber on a nearly-coplanar orbit. Through approximately 10^7 N-body simulations, we demonstrate how TTV signal amplitudes may vary by orders of magnitude due to slight variations in any one orbital parameter (0.001 AU in semimajor axis, 0.005 in eccentricity, or a few degrees in orbital angles), and quantify the number of consecutive transit observations necessary in order to obtain a reasonable opportunity to characterize the unseen planet (approximately greater or equal to 50 observations). Planets in or near period commensurabilities of the form p:q, where p < 21 and q < 4, produce distinct TTV signatures, regardless of whether the planets are actually locked in a mean motion resonance. We distinguish these systems from the secular systems in our explorations. Additionally, we find that computing the autocorrelation function of a TTV signal can provide a useful diagnostic for identifying possible orbits for additional planets and suggest that this method could aid integration of TTV signals in future studies of particular exosystems.

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arXiv2010

From Dust To Planetesimal: The Snowball Phase ?

The standard model of planet formation considers an initial phase in which planetesimals form from a dust disk, followed by a phase of mutual planetesimal-planetesimal collisions, leading eventually to the formation of planetary embryos. However, there is a potential transition phase (which we call the "snowball phase"), between the formation of the first planetesimals and the onset of mutual collisions amongst them, which has often been either ignored or underestimated in previous studies. In this snowball phase, isolated planetesimals move on Keplerian orbits and grow solely via the direct accretion of sub-cm sized dust entrained with the gas in the protoplanetary disk. Using a simplified model in which planetesimals are progressively produced from the dust, we consider the expected sizes to which the planetesimals can grow before mutual collisions commence and derive the dependence of this size on a number of critical parameters, including the degree of disk turbulence, the planetesimal size at birth and the rate of planetesimal creation. For systems in which turbulence is weak and the planetesimals are created at a low rate and with relatively small birth size, we show that the snowball growth phase can be very important, allowing planetesimals to grow by a factor of 10^6 in mass before mutual collisions take over. In such cases, the snowball growth phase can be the dominant mode to transfer mass from the dust to planetesimals. Moreover, such growth can take place within the typical lifetime of a protoplanetary gas disk. A noteworthy result is that ... ...(see the paper). For the specific case of close binaries such as Alpha Centauri ... ... (see the paper). From a more general perspective, these preliminary results suggest that an efficient snowball growth phase provides a large amount of "room at the bottom" for theories of planet formation.

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arXiv2010

Transit Timing Variations for Inclined and Retrograde Exoplanetary Systems

We perform numerical calculations of the expected transit timing variations (TTVs) induced on a Hot-Jupiter by an Earth-mass perturber. Motivated by the recent discoveries of retrograde transiting planets, we concentrate on an investigation of the effect of varying relative planetary inclinations, up to and including completely retrograde systems. We find that planets in low order (E.g. 2:1) mean-motion resonances (MMRs) retain approximately constant TTV amplitudes for $0<\,^{\circ}i<170\,^{\circ}$, only reducing in amplitude for $i > 170\,^{\circ}$. Systems in higher order MMRs (E.g. 5:1) increase in TTV amplitude as inclinations increase towards $45\,^{\circ}$, becoming approximately constant for $45 < i < 135$, and then declining for $i > 135\,^{\circ}$. Planets away from resonance slowly decrease in TTV amplitude as inclinations increase from 0 to 180, where-as planets adjacent to resonances can exhibit a huge range of variability in TTV amplitude as a function of both eccentricity and inclination. For highly retrograde systems ($135\,^{\circ} < i \leq 180\,^{\circ}$), TTV signals will be undetectable across almost the entirety of parameter space, with the exceptions occurring when the perturber has high eccentricity or is very close to a MMR. This high inclination decrease in TTV amplitude (on and away from resonance) is important for the analysis of the known retrograde and multi-planet transiting systems, as inclination effects need to be considered if TTVs are to be used to exclude the presence of any putative planetary companions: absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.

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arXiv2009

Outward Migration of Terrestrial Embryos in Binary Systems

We consider the formation and migration of protoplanetary embryos in disks around the stars in tight binary systems (separations ~ 20 AU. In such systems, the initial stages of runaway embryo formation are expected to only take place within some critical disk radius a_{crit}, due to the perturbing effect of the binary companions (Thebault et al. 2009). We perform n-body simulations of the evolution of such a population of inner-disk embryos surrounded by an outer-disk of smaller planetesimals. Taking Alpha Centauri-B as our fiducial reference example in which a_{crit} ~ 0.7 AU, and using a Minimum Mass Nebular Model with $Σ\propto a^{-3/2}$, we find that within 10^6 yrs (10^7 yrs), systems will on average contain embryos which have migrated out to 0.9 AU (1.2 AU), with the average outer-most body having a mass of 0.2 M_{earth} 0.4 M_{earth}. Changes to increase the surface density of solids or to use a flatter profile both produce increased embryo migration and growth. At a given time, the relative change in semi-major axis of the outer-most embryo in these simulations is found to be essentially independent of a_{crit}, and we note that little further embryo migration takes place beyond 10^7 years. We conclude that the suppression of runaway growth outside a_{crit} does not mean that the habitable zones in such tight binary systems will be devoid of detectable, terrestrial mass planets, even if a_{crit} lies significantly interior to the inner edge of the habitable zone.

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arXiv2008

Dynamical Simulations of the Planetary System HD69830

HD 69830 exhibits radial velocity variations attributed to three planets as well as infrared emission attributed to a warm debris disk. Previous studies have developed models for the planet migration and mass growth (Alibert et al. 2006) and the replenishment of warm grains (Wyatt et al. 2007). We perform n-body integrations in order to explore the implications of these models for: 1) the excitation of planetary eccentricity, 2) the accretion and clearing of a putative planetesimal disk, 3) the distribution of planetesimal orbits following migration, and 4) the implications for the origin of the IR emission. We find that: i) It is not possible to explain the observed planetary eccentricities (e~0.1) purely as the result of planetary perturbations during migration unless the planetary system is nearly face-on. ii) The rate of accretion of planetesimals onto planets in our n-body simulations is significantly different to that assumed in the semi-analytic models, suggesting that one cannot successfully treat planetesimal accretion in the simplified manner of Alibert et al. (2006). iii) Eccentricity damping of planetesimals does not act as an insurmountable obstacle to the existence of an excited eccentric disk: All simulations result in at least 25 Earth-masses of material remaining bound in the region ~1-9 AU, even after all three planets have migrated through the region. iv) Gas drag works to size-sort the planetesimals, with the largest bodies preferentially occupying the highest eccentricity and longest-lived orbits. Further work will be required to understand whether these eccentricity distributions are high enough to explain the level of dust emission observed despite mass loss via steady state collisional evolution. [abridged]

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arXiv2007

The potential for Earth-mass planet formation around brown dwarfs

Recent observations point to the presence of structured dust grains in the discs surrounding young brown dwarfs, thus implying that the first stages of planet formation take place also in the sub-stellar regime. Here, we investigate the potential for planet formation around brown dwarfs and very low mass stars according to the sequential core accretion model of planet formation. We find that, for a brown dwarfs of mass 0.05M_{\odot}, our models predict a maximum planetary mass of ~5M_{\oplus}, orbiting with semi-major axis ~1AU. However, we note that the predictions for the mass - semi-major axis distribution are strongly dependent upon the models chosen for the disc surface density profiles and the assumed distribution of disc masses. In particular, if brown dwarf disc masses are of the order of a few Jupiter masses, Earth-mass planets might be relatively frequent, while if typical disc masses are only a fraction of Jupiter mass, we predict that planet formation would be extremely rare in the sub-stellar regime. As the observational constraints on disc profiles, mass dependencies and their distributions are poor in the brown dwarf regime, we advise caution in validating theoretical models only on stars similar to the Sun and emphasise the need for observational data on planetary systems around a wide range of stellar masses. We also find that, unlike the situation around solar-like stars, Type-II migration is totally absent from the planet formation process around brown dwarfs, suggesting that any future observations of planets around brown dwarfs would provide a direct measure of the role of other types of migration.

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