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Matthieu Schaller

Publications and source records attributed to Matthieu Schaller.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

The evolution of the sizes and angular momentum content of galaxies in the COLIBRE simulations

We analyse the sizes and specific angular momentum content of galaxies in the Colibre cosmological hydrodynamical simulations spanning two orders of magnitude in mass resolution. We compare the predicted size-mass and angular momentum-mass relations to a broad range of observational measurements spanning redshifts $z=0$ to $4$. At $z=0$, Colibre reproduces observed size-mass relations over the sampled mass range $10^8 \lesssim M_\star/{\rm M_\odot}\lesssim 10^{11.5}$, and for multiple size definitions, including two- and three-dimensional stellar half-mass radii, half-light radii across several wavelengths, as well as alternative measures such as baryonic half-mass radii and characteristic radii defined by stellar surface density thresholds. The simulations also recover the observed segregation of galaxies in the size-mass plane by morphological type and star formation rate, and reproduce the distinct, approximately parallel sequences followed by star-forming discs and quenched spheroids in the stellar specific angular momentum-mass plane. The angular momentum content of star-forming Colibre galaxies matches that of observed systems out to $z\approx 1.5$. At higher redshifts, massive galaxies ($ 10^{9.5}\lesssim M_\star/{\rm M_\odot}\lesssim 10^{11}$) in the simulations are somewhat smaller than observed, and the separation between star-forming and passive populations in the size-mass plane is reduced relative to observations, while at lower masses the agreement remains good. This apparent discrepancy may reflect the effects of dust attenuation, which is neglected in our analysis and may preferentially obscure the central regions of observed systems. Overall, our findings highlight the close connection between galaxy size, angular momentum, and morphology over cosmic time.

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The morphologies of present-day galaxies in the COLIBRE simulations

The diversity of galaxy morphologies and their relations with galaxy and halo properties is fundamental to understanding galaxy formation. Cosmological simulations of representative volumes can help disentangle the origin of observed correlations, but most suffer from two main limitations that affect morphologies: an over-pressurised interstellar medium and spurious interactions between stellar and dark matter particles. We present an overview of galaxy morphologies in the COLIBRE simulations, which address these limitations and reproduce many observed galaxy scaling relations. To quantify galaxy morphology, we use four (strongly-correlated) theory-space metrics, three kinematic and one spatial. We explore how different choices and limitations affect these indicators, including luminosity- versus mass-weighting, aperture size and shot noise. Overall, we find good convergence in present-day morphologies across two orders of magnitude in mass resolution. COLIBRE predicts that kinematic morphology correlates strongly with stellar mass and colour, and that galaxies with stellar masses of $\approx(1-2)\times 10^{10}\,\mathrm{M}_{\odot}$ tend to be the most rotationally-dominated. At fixed stellar mass, the morphology of central galaxies correlates weakly with the properties of their host halo. Morphology correlates more strongly with internal galaxy properties, with more disky galaxies being more gas-rich, having higher star formation rates and exhibiting younger and more extended stellar populations. Other properties, like the mass of the most massive black hole, the fraction of stars that are accreted and stellar metallicity, also correlate with morphology, but with correlation strengths sensitive to the stellar mass of the galaxy and whether it is a central or satellite.

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The tidal evolution of satellite galaxies in cosmological simulations: insights from COLIBRE

We investigate the co-evolution of the stellar and dark matter mass of satellite galaxies using the COLIBRE cosmological hydrodynamical simulations with subhaloes resolved by the history-based HBT-HERONS subhalo finder. We identify a universal tidal track connecting stellar mass loss to subhalo mass loss characterized by two distinct phases, which can be well described by the two-parameter model. The initial phase consists primarily of dark matter stripping, whereas stellar stripping becomes significant only after the subhalo bound mass fraction drops below a critical value ($\sim 0.057$). We find a bimodal mass loss rate distribution of subhaloes. In satellites with modest mass loss rates, the stellar mass is largely frozen. By contrast, the galaxy quickly becomes unresolved, along with the dark matter component for the extreme-mass-loss population, naturally explaining the lack of ``orphan'' galaxies in previous hydrodynamical simulations. Our model also predicts the formation condition for dark-matter-deficient galaxies (DMDGs), whose abundance peaks at $m_{*}\sim 10^{9.5}\,\rm{M}_{\odot}$. The abundance of DMDGs can be very sensitive to numerical effects, with COLIBRE resolving a much larger DMDG population than previous hydrodynamical simulations. We also estimate the influence of artificial disruption on the satellite stellar mass function, which can amount to 20 (50) per cent at $m_* \sim 10^{9} (10^{8}) \, \rm M_\odot$, given a baryonic mass resolution of $\sim 10^{6}\,\rm{M}_{\odot}$.

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Cosmological simulations of the high-redshift galaxy population adopting a variable stellar initial mass function

JWST surveys reveal a greater space density of high-redshift UV-bright galaxies than predicted by conventional galaxy formation models. We present results from a $L=100$ cMpc cosmological simulation evolved to $z=5$ with a variation of the COLIBRE galaxy formation model that adopts a density-dependent stellar initial mass function (IMF), such that stellar populations formed from dense gas are born with a top-heavy IMF. Crucially, heavy element and dust yields, and supernova feedback energetics, are self-consistently adjusted to the changing IMF. We model UV/optical emission (including nebular emission) from galaxies and its attenuation by dust. By allowing a significant fraction of high-redshift star formation to proceed with a top-heavy IMF, the rest-frame far-UV luminosities of early galaxies are elevated by up to a factor of $\simeq4$ with respect to the fiducial COLIBRE L100m6 simulation, which assumes a universal Chabrier IMF. This enables the formation of galaxies with observed brightness up to $M_{\rm UV} \simeq -20$ at $z=15$ (c.f. $M_{\rm UV} \simeq -18.5$ in the fiducial simulation), illustrating the potential of star formation with a top-heavy IMF to alleviate tensions with JWST data. Later, the boost in far-UV emission is partly offset by attenuation due to increased dust surface densities from i) additional dust grain ejection from core-collapse supernovae and ii) efficient grain growth promoted by more metal-rich interstellar gas. The simulation reproduces the $z=5$ galaxy stellar mass function and rest-frame optical luminosity function with comparable accuracy to the fiducial simulation, and both simulations exhibit UV continuum slopes that are consistent with JWST observations.

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The COLIBRE-SKIRT pipeline: Calibration-free dust radiative transfer postprocessing for cosmological simulations

Context. Three-dimensional dust radiative transfer provides a powerful framework to connect cosmological galaxy simulations to multiwavelength observations. Until recently, in large-volume simulations, the formation of a cold ISM phase was prevented and dust was not evolved self-consistently. This required calibration of dust-to-metal ratios and extra subgrid dust attenuation in birth clouds, thereby reducing the predictive power. Aims. We present the COLIBRE-SKIRT pipeline, a calibration-free dust radiative transfer framework for the novel COLIBRE suite of large-volume cosmological simulations, which include a live dust model and directly simulate the multiphase ISM. Our primary aim is to establish a reference pipeline for generating multiwavelength mock observables from these simulations. As a first application, we produce far-ultraviolet (FUV) to far-infrared (FIR) spatially integrated spectra and assess them by comparison with the observed low-redshift cosmic spectral energy distribution (CSED). Methods. We apply the SKIRT dust radiative transfer code to the COLIBRE simulations. Dust masses and species fractions are taken directly from the simulation, and no birth cloud model is added in postprocessing. We introduce a "split & scale" approach that maps the simulated two-size, multi-species dust distribution onto continuous grain size distributions without introducing free parameters. Results. We find that, for the first time, a large-volume cosmological simulation directly reproduces the local Universe CSED without calibrating the postprocessing routine a priori. Residual tensions in the mid-infrared (~0.2 dex) point towards insufficient heating of the hottest dust components and uncertainties in the modelling of the PAH-emission carriers. This framework can be readily applied at low and high redshift to create synthetic spectra and images from the FUV to the FIR.

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Three-point intrinsic alignments of galaxies and haloes in the FLAMINGO simulations

Third-order statistics provide information beyond two-point measures, but extracting this information requires accurate and consistent modelling. We measure and detect the three-point correlation function and third-order aperture mass statistics of intrinsic alignments (IA) for galaxies and for haloes with $M_{\rm halo} > 10^{13}\,{\rm M}_\odot$ in the $(2.8\,\mathrm{Gpc})^3$ simulation volume of the FLAMINGO hydrodynamical simulation suite. We model the third-order aperture mass statistics and show that on large scales both the galaxy and halo samples are well described by the tree-level effective field theory (EFT) of IA across the three dark matter density-shape combinations and a wide range of triangle configurations, with the alignment amplitude consistent with that inferred from two-point statistics. We compare the full EFT to several other models: a version neglecting the velocity-shear term, the non-linear alignment model, and a reduced EFT assuming co-evolution relations that follow from the assumption that alignment is linear in Lagrangian space. The first two models yield biased constraints on the alignment amplitude, but the reduced EFT performs remarkably well, achieving a low reduced chi-squared and minimal bias. We examine the redshift and mass dependence of the higher-order bias parameters, finding that the linear Lagrangian bias assumption is approximately satisfied across the explored halo mass and redshift ranges for both galaxies and haloes. These co-evolution relations can be valuable for photometric shear surveys, where limited constraining power on IA parameters favours models with fewer free parameters.

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The FLAMINGO simulations data release

We describe the public release of $>2.3$ petabytes of data from the FLAMINGO cosmological simulations. The suite consists of hydrodynamical simulations that include radiative cooling, star formation, stellar mass loss and the resulting chemical enrichment, supernova feedback, and two implementations of AGN feedback. Neutrinos are simulated explicitly using particles. Data products include snapshots, halo and galaxy catalogues, HEALPix all-sky lightcone maps, particle data for lightcone maps, and power spectra. The FLAMINGO set includes 22 hydrodynamical simulations. In addition, there are 16 gravity-only simulations, including the $10080^3$ particles FLAMINGO-10k run, with initial conditions that match those of the corresponding hydrodynamical runs. The fiducial hydrodynamical simulations span three numerical resolutions that have each been calibrated to reproduce the present-day galaxy stellar mass function and gas fractions in low-redshift clusters. Other simulations systematically vary the galaxy stellar mass function, cluster gas fractions, cosmology (including neutrino masses), and/or the nature of dark matter, in volumes of 1Gpc$^3$. The release includes hitherto unpublished simulations that use extra dark matter particles. While we provide a facility for downloading complete simulation outputs, we recognise that for many users this will not be possible due to limited local storage or network bandwidth. We implement a web service that enables users to explore available outputs and selectively download datasets or parts of datasets.

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The evolution of the galaxy gas-phase mass-metallicity relation from $z=15$ to $z=0$ in the COLIBRE cosmological simulations

We present the evolution of the galaxy gas-phase mass-metallicity relation (MZR) from $z=15$ to $z=0$ in the COLIBRE cosmological hydrodynamical simulations. Amongst other novel features, COLIBRE follows the multiphase interstellar medium with gas allowed to cool to $\sim 10\,\mathrm{K}$, and includes a new chemistry model in which hydrogen and helium are tracked in non-equilibrium, metals are allowed to mix and diffuse, and the chemical network is coupled to a self-consistent live dust model. Using fiducial COLIBRE runs spanning particle masses from $10^5\,\mathrm{M_{\odot}}$ to $10^7\,\mathrm{M_{\odot}}$ and box sizes $25 - 400\,\mathrm{cMpc}$, we derive the median, mass-weighted MZRs for star-forming galaxies and compare them with a comprehensive compilation of observational data and other simulations. COLIBRE reproduces the observed MZR across cosmic time, notwithstanding the systematic uncertainties in observational measurements of the gas-phase oxygen abundances. The simulations show excellent numerical convergence and uniquely probe the full stellar mass range sampled by current observations across all redshifts. We find that the MZR is already in place at cosmic dawn ($z \approx 10$), and shows no evolution until $z \approx 5$. The slope of the MZR becomes shallower at low redshifts. The turnover at the high-mass end is largely governed by feedback from active galactic nuclei (AGN), whereas the low-mass end of the MZR sensitively depends on the strength of feedback from core collapse supernovae. Variations in the star formation efficiency or depletion of oxygen on dust grains have a more minor impact on the MZR. We identify key physical processes that shape the MZR across cosmic time and highlight where future observations can further constrain galaxy formation models.

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Columba: isolated dwarf galaxy populations in diverse cosmological environments simulated with a cold interstellar medium

We introduce a suite of LambdaCDM cosmological, hydrodynamical simulations that track the evolution of a large population of dwarf galaxies. The suite comprises zoom-in simulations of 25 spherical, under-dense regions of r=5cMpc, selected to span $\approx1.5$ dex in mean enclosed density, covering voids to filamentary structures, whilst excluding haloes of Milky Way-mass or larger. The simulations achieve a mass resolution of $\sim 10^5$ solar masses with a galaxy formation model including cold, dense interstellar gas and whose subgrid stellar feedback efficiency reproduces the z=0 galaxy stellar mass function. We investigate the impact of the cosmic environment on dwarf galaxy formation and evolution. We find that the 5 cMpc environment influences the normalisation of the halo and galaxy mass functions, but does not significantly affect the stellar mass - halo mass (SMHM) relation and halo occupation fraction for galaxies with $M_{\star}=10^6-10^9$ solar masses. Instead, host halo concentration, estimated from DM-only counterparts, is more important: both the fraction of haloes hosting a resolved galaxy and the scatter about the SMHM relation correlate positively with concentration. Owing to halo assembly bias, concentration also influences galaxy formation times, such that at fixed halo mass more concentrated haloes host galaxies that are both older and more massive. The offset from the mean SMHM relation also anti-correlates with $t_{90}$, the time at which 90 percent of a galaxy's stellar mass has assembled. These correlations between halo properties and galaxy star formation histories present testable predictions for forthcoming observational surveys.

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Memory Layouts for GPU-Data Transfer Buffering in SPH

The rise in GPU compute speed has outpaced improvements in host-to-device memory transfer speeds, despite the advent of shared-memory superchips. Consequently, memory transfer times now constitute an increasingly large fraction of total time-to-solution, compelling developers to compress GPU kernel input and output data into compact, minimal formats prior to GPU-offloading. This complements existing work on GPU- and compute-friendly data arrangements. We study a Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics solver and propose memory layout strategies for host-side particle data that are particularly well-suited to GPU-offloading. Specifically, we advocate splitting classic array-of-struct data structures into a split array-of-struct arrangement, in which each logical struct decomposes into substructs determined by kernel read/write access patterns and attribute types. Splitting a monolithic particle struct into several bespoke, finer-grained structs can reduce the time required to pack data to and from buffers by ~20% - 40%, lowering total time spent on GPU-offloading by ~12% - 25%.

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The importance of super-Eddington black hole accretion for the emergence of massive quiescent galaxies at high redshift

Recent JWST observations indicate that massive quiescent galaxies (stellar mass $M_{*}\gtrsim 10^{10}~\mathrm{M_\odot}$) at high redshift ($z\gtrsim 6$) are more abundant than predicted by most existing galaxy formation simulations and semi-analytic models. Notably, the new COLIBRE simulations have succeeded in reconciling this tension, though the precise reason for their improved agreement with JWST data remains unclear. We demonstrate that the improved agreement is largely due to super-Eddington growth of supermassive black holes (BHs) at high redshift. We run a series of $(100~\mathrm{cMpc})^{3}$ simulations with the COLIBRE subgrid physics at m7 COLIBRE resolution (gas and dark matter particle masses $m_{\rm gas}\approx m_{\rm dm}\sim 10^7~\mathrm{M_\odot}$), varying the maximum allowed BH accretion rate in units of the Eddington rate. We show that only the fiducial COLIBRE model, which permits super-Eddington accretion, is consistent with the JWST constraints at $z \gtrsim 6$. Moreover, we find that in COLIBRE about $50$ per cent of BH mass growth at high redshift occurs in the super-Eddington regime, even though such events are extremely rare in time. Our work highlights the important role of super-Eddington accretion in simulations of galaxy formation for reproducing the observed early emergence of quenching of massive galaxies.

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cloelib: A Flexible Python Library for Computing Cosmological Observables in the Euclid Era

cloelib is a Python library developed to compute cosmological observables within the Cosmology Likelihood for Observables in Euclid (CLOE) ecosystem (cloe-org). As cosmology enters a precision era driven by galaxy survey missions such as Euclid, there is a growing need for flexible, efficient, and differentiable software capable of supporting next-generation inference pipelines. cloelib addresses these demands through a modular architecture that interfaces seamlessly with established Boltzmann solvers whilst incorporating JAX-based automatic differentiation to enable gradient-based methods. The library defines consistent protocols for background evolution, perturbations, and non-linear structure formation, and supports a wide range of observables, including photometric and spectroscopic large-scale structure probes, as well as cross-correlations with the Cosmic Microwave Background and galaxy clusters. In its finalised form, cloelib is intended to serve as the reference theory computation infrastructure for Euclid's first cosmological release, bridging traditional numerical cosmology with modern optimisation techniques and emerging machine learning approaches to inference.

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Kennicutt-Schmidt relation of galaxies over 13 billion years in the COLIBRE hydrodynamical simulations

We investigate the correlation between star formation rate (SFR) surface density and gas surface density (known as the Kennicutt-Schmidt, KS, relation) at kiloparsec (kpc) scales across cosmic time ($0\le z \le 8$) for galaxies with stellar masses $>10^9\,\rm M_{\odot}$, using the COLIBRE state-of-the-art cosmological hydrodynamical simulations. These simulations feature on-the-fly non-equilibrium chemistry coupled to dust grain evolution and detailed radiative cooling down to $\approx 10$~K, enabling direct predictions for the atomic (HI) and molecular (H$_2$) KS relations. At $z\approx 0$, COLIBRE reproduces the observed (spatially-resolved) KS relations for HI and H$_2$, including the associated scatter, which we predict to be significantly correlated with stellar surface density, local specific SFR (sSFR), and gas metallicity. We show that the HI KS relation steepens for lower-mass galaxies, while the H$_2$ KS relation shifts to higher normalisation in galaxies with higher sSFRs. The H$_2$ depletion time decreases by a factor of $\approx 20$ from $z = 0$ to $z = 8$, primarily due to the decreasing gas-phase metallicity. This results in less H$_2$ and more HI being associated with a given SFR at higher redshift. We also find that galaxies with higher sSFRs have a larger molecular gas content and higher star formation efficiency per unit gas mass on kpc scales. The predicted evolution of the H$_2$ depletion time and its correlation with a galaxy's sSFR agree remarkably well with observations in a wide redshift range, $0\le z\le 5$.

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FLAMINGO: Tracing the co-evolution of hot gas and black holes in galaxy groups and clusters

The gas mass fraction of galaxy groups and clusters is a key physical quantity for constraining the impact of feedback processes on large-scale structure. While several modern cosmological simulations use the gas fraction-halo mass relation to calibrate their feedback implementations, we note that this relation exhibits substantial intrinsic scatter whose origin has not been fully elucidated. Using the large-volume FLAMINGO hydrodynamical simulations, we examine the role of both central and satellite supermassive black holes (BHs) in shaping this scatter, probing higher halo masses than previously possible. For haloes with M500 < 10^13 Msun, we find that central BH mass correlates strongly and negatively with gas fraction, such that higher BH masses give rise to lower gas fractions at fixed halo mass, consistent with previous studies. Interestingly, however, for 10^13 Msun < M500 < 10^14.5 Msun the correlation reverses and becomes positive, with overmassive BHs residing in haloes with above-average gas fractions. By tracing progenitor BHs and haloes through cosmic time, we show that this behaviour is driven by the expulsion and subsequent re-accretion of halo gas, regulated by the timing of BH growth and feedback. Specifically, haloes that collapse earlier form BHs earlier, leading to earlier gas expulsion and re-accretion and a high gas fraction compared to haloes of the same present-day mass that formed later. Our results demonstrate that present-day scatter in the gas fraction-halo mass relation is strongly shaped by the early growth history of BHs and their haloes, a prediction that can be tested with future observational measurements.

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The limits of feedback from active galactic nuclei

We use FLAMINGO to investigate why feedback from active galactic nuclei (AGN) significantly depletes gas in galaxy groups but is ineffective in clusters. We delineate three radial zones: an inner zone where AGN feedback heats halo gas via shocks; an intermediate buoyancy zone where the heated halo gas rises; and an outer zone where the outflow may stall in a termination shock. Heating in the inner zone self-limits because, once the gas is sufficiently hot, shocks become too weak to deposit further entropy. Consequently, outflows have a ceiling entropy value ($360\, {\rm keV\, cm^2}$) that is nearly independent of halo mass. These values (and trends with redshift and feedback variants) are explained using an argument based on the Rankine-Hugoniot relations. Outflows rise at fixed entropy through the buoyancy zone, escaping the halo if the ceiling value is sufficiently elevated over that of the inflowing gas. This condition is satisfied only for halo masses $M_{\rm 200m}<10^{13.7}\,{\rm M_\odot}$, because inflow entropy tracks the virial relation. Variants with stronger (or weaker) feedback have a higher (or lower) entropy ceiling and a correspondingly modified critical mass of $M_{\rm 200m}=10^{14.0}\,{\rm M_\odot}$ (or $10^{13.5}\,{\rm M_\odot}$). In clusters above the critical mass, the increased inflow entropy causes the outflow to stall and potentially shock at the 'splashback' radius. We derive an expression for the time evolution of the virial gas fraction, which shows how lingering gas is reincorporated as the halo virial radius expands. This effect dominates over outflows unless they rejoin the Hubble flow; as a result, virial gas fractions rise as a function of mass starting at $M_{\rm 200m} = 10^{13.0}\,{\rm M_\odot}$. These effects explain why groups have depleted gas, while clusters have close to the cosmic baryon fraction.

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Thermostats, Not Engines: A New Picture of Halo Gas Regulation

We propose that black hole feedback regulates gas in massive halos by establishing an entropy ceiling; the resulting buoyant gas migrates to the virial radius with no additional energy input required. The FLAMINGO simulations support this picture: at the virial radius, outflow entropy is mass-independent for isotropic thermal feedback but depends on the solid angle of directly heated gas for jet feedback. Above a critical halo mass $M_\rm{crit} \approx 10^{13.5\text{--}14}\, M_\odot$, virial shocks overwhelm the ceiling, predicting rejuvenation of star formation in the most massive galaxies, supported by new low-redshift evidence from star formation rates and morphologies.

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FLAMINGO: The thermal history of the Universe from tSZ effect cross-correlations and its dependencies on cosmology and baryon physics

The cross-correlation between tracers of large-scale structure, such as galaxies or quasars, and the thermal Sunyaev-Zel'dovich (tSZ) signal yields a measure of the bias-weighted mean electron pressure, $\langle b_\mathrm{h} P_\mathrm{e} \rangle$, where $b_\mathrm{h}$ is the halo bias and $P_\mathrm{e}$ is the electron pressure. With a model for the bias, one can derive the thermal history, $\mathrm{d}y/\mathrm{d}z$, where $y$ is the Compton parameter and $z$ is redshift. We explore how these quantities depend on redshift, cosmology, and the physics of galaxy formation using the FLAMINGO suite of cosmological hydrodynamical simulations, which spans a range of cosmological parameters and baryonic feedback implementations in volumes of up to $(2.8\,\text{Gpc})^3$. We find that $\langle b_\mathrm{h} P_\mathrm{e} \rangle$ depends steeply on $S_8 \equiv σ_8\sqrt{Ω_\mathrm{m}/0.3}$, with an effective scaling $\langle b_\mathrm{h} P_\mathrm{e} \rangle \propto S_8^{ε(z)}$, where the exponent $ε(z) \approx 3$ over the redshift range $0.1 \leq z \leq 1$. Compared with existing cross-correlation measurements using tracer samples from SDSS, BOSS, eBOSS, DES, and DESI cross-correlated with tSZ measurements from Planck, we find that models with a low-$S_8$ cosmology and strong feedback are preferred, with a joint fit yielding $S_8 = 0.72^{+0.03}_{-0.03}$ and a normalised group-mass halo baryon fraction $f_b(10^{13}\,M_\odot, z=0.1)/(Ω_b/Ω_m) = 0.10^{+0.09}_{-0.05}$ . Contrary to most probes of feedback which sample smaller scales (e.g., X-ray measurements), we show that feedback boosts $\langle b_\mathrm{h} P_\mathrm{e} \rangle$, thus providing a novel test of feedback models. Overall, our results show the thermal history provides a route to jointly constrain cosmological parameters and test models of galaxy formation.

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The Impact of Cosmic Variance and Satellites on JWST Clustering Measurements at Redshift around 6

We present a framework for inferring the dark matter halo masses of quasars and [O III]-emitting galaxies from JWST/NIRCam Wide Field Slitless Spectroscopy (WFSS) clustering measurements at z approximately 6. Using the FLAMINGO-10k N-body simulation, we construct mock realizations of quasar and galaxy catalogs that incorporate realistic selection functions, spatial coverage, and sensitivity limits matched to the ASPIRE survey. These mocks enable accurate measurements of the quasar-galaxy cross-correlation and galaxy auto-correlation functions, with covariance matrices derived from 1000 realizations that capture both cosmic variance and bin-to-bin correlations. We employ Bayesian inference to fit the correlation functions and infer the minimum halo masses for quasars and galaxies. Our results demonstrate that Poisson pair-count uncertainties, commonly adopted in high-redshift clustering studies, significantly underestimate the true measurement errors. The dominant missing component is cosmic variance: even the diagonal of the full covariance matrix exceeds the Poisson expectation, with off-diagonal bin-to-bin correlations contributing a smaller additional correction. In particular, 1) the commonly used Poisson error on the correlation functions underestimates the true uncertainty by a factor of approximately 3; 2) the uncertainties on the inferred minimum halo masses are underestimated by a factor of approximately 1.5-3 when adopting Poisson errors instead of the full covariance matrix; 3) the inferred QSO halo mass is robust to whether central and satellite [O III]-emitters share a common mass threshold. Our framework provides a more complete error budget for JWST/WFSS clustering analyses, enabling robust constraints on the host halo masses and duty cycles of high-redshift quasars and emission-line galaxies.

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