arXiv subjects

Matthieu Schaller

Publications and source records attributed to Matthieu Schaller.

At least 91 records · Page 5Linked to original sources

arXiv2025

The impact of galaxy bias on cross-correlation tomography

The cross-correlation of galaxies at different redshifts with other tracers of the large-scale structure can be used to reconstruct the cosmic mean of key physical quantities, and their evolution over billions of years, at high precision. However, a correct interpretation of these measurements must ensure that they are independent of the clustering properties of the galaxy sample used. In this paper we explore different prescriptions to extract tomographic reconstruction measurements and use the FLAMINGO hydrodynamic simulations to show that a robust estimator, independent of the small-scale galaxy bias, can be constructed. We focus on the tomographic reconstruction of the halo bias-weighted electron pressure $\langle bP_e\rangle$ and star-formation density $\langle bρ_{\rm SFR}\rangle$, which can be reconstructed from tomographic analysis of Sunyaev-Zel'dovich and cosmic infrared background maps, respectively. We show that these quantities can be reconstructed with an accuracy of 1-3\% over a wide range of redshifts, using different galaxy samples. We also show that these measurements can be accurately interpreted using the halo model, assuming a sufficiently reliable model can be constructed for the halo mass function, large-scale halo bias, and for the dependence of the physical quantities being reconstructed on halo mass.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2025

SOAP: A Python Package for Calculating the Properties of Galaxies and Halos Formed in Cosmological Simulations

Modern large scale cosmological hydrodynamic simulations require robust tools capable of analysing their data outputs in a parallel and efficient manner. We introduce SOAP (Spherical Overdensity and Aperture Processor), a Python package designed to compute halo and galaxy properties from SWIFT simulations after being post-processed with a subhalo finder. SOAP takes a subhalo catalogue as input and calculates a wide array of properties for each object. SOAP offers parallel processing capabilities via mpi4py for efficient handling of large datasets, and allows for consistent property calculation across multiple halo finders. SOAP supports various halo definitions, including spherical overdensities and fixed physical apertures, providing flexibility for diverse observational comparisons. The package is compatible with both dark matter-only and full hydrodynamic simulations, producing HDF5 catalogues that are integrated with the swiftsimio package for seamless unit handling.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2025

Kinematic dynamos and resolution limits for Smoothed Particle Magnetohydrodynamics

Understanding the origin and evolution of magnetic fields on cosmological scales opens up a window into the physics of the early Universe. Numerical simulations of such fields require a careful treatment to faithfully solve the equations of magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) without introducing numerical artefacts. In this paper, we study the growth of the magnetic fields in controlled kinematic dynamo setups using both smoothed particle hydrodynamics implementations in the SWIFT code. We assess the quality of the reconstructed solution in the Roberts flow case against the reference implementation in the Pencil code and find generally a good agreement. Similarly, we reproduce the known features of the more complex ABC flow. Using a simple induction-diffusion balance model to analyse the results, we construct an "overwinding" trigger metric to locally detect regions where the magnetic diffusion cannot counteract the expected induction because of limitations in the method's ability to resolve magnetic field gradients. This metric is then used to identify the necessary resolution and resistivity levels to counteract the overwinding problem. We finally apply this metric to adiabatic cosmological simulations and discuss the resolution requirements needed to resolve the growth of the primordial fields without artefacts.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2025

Baryonification II: Constraining feedback with X-ray and kinematic Sunyaev-Zel'dovich observations

Baryonic feedback alters the matter distribution on small and intermediate scales, posing a challenge for precision cosmology. The new, component-wise baryonification (BFC) approach provides a self-consistent framework to model feedback effects for different observables. In this paper we use this framework to fit kinematic Sunyaev-Zel'dovich (kSZ) observations from the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT) alongside halo X-ray gas fractions from eROSITA, investigating baryonic feedback in a cosmological context. We first show that the kSZ data from ACT is consistent with the gas fractions from eROSITA, both suggesting a feedback model that is stronger than what is assumed in most hydrodynamical simulations. This finding is in contrast to older, pre-eROSITA gas fraction measurements that point towards weaker feedback in tension with the kSZ results. We suspect these discrepancies to be due to selection bias in the pre-eROSITA sample, or differences in halo mass estimation between the two data sets. In a further step, we use the BFC model to predict the baryonic suppression of the matter power spectrum. Based on our combined fit to data from ACT and eROSITA, we find a power spectrum suppression that exceeds the percent-level at modes above $k=0.3-0.6 \,h\,\mathrm{Mpc}^{-1}$, growing to 2-8 percent at $k=1\,h\,\mathrm{Mpc}^{-1}$, and to 20-25 percent at $k=5\,h\,\mathrm{Mpc}^{-1}$, consistent with strong-feedback hydrodynamical simulations. Finally, we compare our best-fitting model to the observed gas density and pressure profiles of massive galaxy clusters from the X-COP sample, finding excellent agreement. These results show that BFC provides a self-consistent picture of feedback across mass- and length scales as well as different cosmological observables, thus making it promising for applications to multiwavelength studies to jointly constrain cosmology and baryonic effects.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2025

Entropy plateaus can emerge from gas replacement at a characteristic halo mass in simulated groups and clusters of galaxies

The evolution of the intergalactic medium (IGM) is influenced by gravitational collapse, radiative cooling, and baryonic feedback. Using cosmological hydrodynamic zoom-in simulations of a $8.83 \times 10^{12}$ M$_\odot$ group and a $2.92 \times 10^{14}$ M$_\odot$ cluster at $z=0$, we investigate the emergence of entropy plateaus and their connection to feedback mechanisms. This set-up uses the SWIFT-EAGLE model with three resolutions, down to an initial particle gas mass of $2.29 \times 10^5$ M$_\odot$ and $1.23 \times 10^6$ M$_\odot$ for dark matter. We find that, when halos reach the characteristic mass of $\sim 10^{12}$ M$_{\odot}$, their entropy profiles flatten at the virial radius, marking a transition from supernova to AGN feedback-driven regulation. As halos grow into groups ($\sim 10^{13}$ M$_{\odot}$), the entropy plateau extends inward and isentropic cores form in massive systems ($\sim 10^{14}$ M$_{\odot}$). By tracking the Lagrangian history of gas particles, we demonstrate that this entropy buildup is primarily driven by AGN feedback, which efficiently removes low-entropy gas from progenitors of groups and clusters, redistributing it throughout the IGM before falling into the core. Recent observations of X-GAP groups reveal large entropy excesses and plateaus, in line with our findings and in contrast to the power-law-like profiles of most previous observations. While entropy plateaus and large entropy excesses may be observationally confirmed in unbiased samples, reproducing the full diversity of entropy profiles remains an outstanding challenge for next-generation feedback models. Our results suggest that current feedback models may be overly efficient in expelling low-entropy gas from the potential cool-core progenitors, disrupting the balance between heating and cooling required for long-lived cool cores.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2025

Numerical tests of cosmological Alfvén waves with Ohmic diffusion

Physical problems with a solution that can be expressed analytically are scarce; this holds even more true for problems set in a cosmological context. Such solutions are, however, invaluable tools for making comparisons between theory, numerical experimentation and observations. In this work we present what to our knowledge is the first set of non-trivial closed-form expressions describing the behaviour of a system governed by the equations of non-ideal Magnetohydrodynamics (MHD), where the effects of Ohmic diffusion are considered, in a cosmologically expanding frame. We provide analytical solutions that describe the time evolution of linear perturbations to a homogeneous background in a radiation-dominated universe, yielding dissipative Alfvén waves. Although in our base framework solutions for any other cosmology of interest cannot be expressed in a closed form, they can still be obtained reliably through numerical integration of the coupled system of ordinary differential equations we provide. We compare our analytical solutions to numerical results obtained using our novel implementation of Smoothed Particle Magnetohydrodynamics (SPMHD) in the SWIFT astrophysical simulation code, to find good agreement between the two. We find the code to display good convergence behaviour, its predictions agreeing with theory to within 0.1% for a modest number of resolution elements and at a negligible computational cost. We aim this work as a companion and supplement to the cosmological ideal MHD wave tests recently presented in the literature, and suggest that it be adopted as part of standard testing of code implementations of MHD.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2025

An analytic redshift-independent formulation of baryonic effects on the matter power spectrum

Baryonic effects created by feedback processes associated with galaxy formation are an important, poorly constrained systematic effect for models of large-scale structure as probed by weak gravitational lensing. Upcoming surveys require fast methods to predict and marginalize over the potential impact of baryons on the total matter power spectrum. Here we use the FLAMINGO cosmological hydrodynamical simulations to test a recent proposal to approximate the matter power spectrum as the sum of the linear matter power spectrum and a constant multiple, $A_{\rm mod}$, of the difference between the linear and non-linear gravity-only power spectra. We show that replacing this constant multiple with a one-parameter family of sigmoid functions of the wavenumber $k$ allows to us match the predictions of simulations with different feedback strengths for $z \leq 1, k < 3~h\cdot{\rm Mpc}^{-1}$, and the different cosmological models in the FLAMINGO suite. The baryonic response predicted by FLAMINGO models that use jet-like AGN feedback instead of the fiducial thermally-driven AGN feedback can also be reproduced, but at the cost of increasing the number of parameters in the sigmoid function from one to three. The assumption that $A_{\rm mod}$ depends only on $k$ breaks down for decaying dark matter models, highlighting the need for more advanced baryon response models when studying cosmological models that deviate strongly from $Λ$CDM.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2025

3D matter power spectrum correspondence to 1D Lyman-alpha flux power spectrum

The 3D distribution of matter at small scales encodes valuable information about the nature of dark matter and other fundamental physics. A prominent probe of such scales outside galaxies is the Lyman-alpha forest, which studies absorption features in the spectra of high-redshift quasars caused by neutral hydrogen. The measured quantity is the power spectrum of the absorbed flux, which indirectly traces the underlying matter distribution. However, the connection between the measured flux power spectrum and the underlying 3D dark matter power spectrum is highly nontrivial. The flux power spectrum (i) represents a one-dimensional projection of the density field; (ii) traces only neutral hydrogen, subject to thermodynamic pressure; and (iii) is a nonlinear function of local matter density. Additionally, thermal broadening and redshift-space distortions-determined not only by the hydrogen distribution but also by its thermal state and local velocity field-further complicate interpretation. To robustly constrain dark matter properties using the Lyman-alpha forest, these systematics must be carefully modeled and controlled. In this paper, we present a simple phenomenological recipe for mapping the 3D matter power spectrum to the flux power spectrum. We first motivate our approach in the linear regime, then extend it to later times and into the nonlinear regime. We validate our model against a broad suite of warm and cold dark matter simulations, demonstrating that our recipe yields consistent and accurate estimates across a wide parameter space.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2025

FLAMINGO: combining kinetic SZ effect and galaxy-galaxy lensing measurements to gauge the impact of feedback on large-scale structure

Energetic feedback processes associated with accreting supermassive black holes can expel gas from massive haloes and significantly alter various measures of clustering on ~Mpc scales, potentially biasing the values of cosmological parameters inferred from analyses of large-scale structure (LSS) if not modelled accurately. Here we use the state-of-the-art FLAMINGO suite of cosmological hydrodynamical simulations to gauge the impact of feedback on large-scale structure by comparing to Planck + ACT stacking measurements of the kinetic Sunyaev-Zel'dovich (kSZ) effect of SDSS BOSS galaxies. We make careful like-with-like comparisons to the observations, aided by high precision KiDS and DES galaxy-galaxy lensing measurements of the BOSS galaxies to inform the selection of the simulated galaxies. In qualitative agreement with several recent studies using dark matter only simulations corrected for baryonic effects, we find that the kSZ effect measurements prefer stronger feedback than predicted by simulations which have been calibrated to reproduce the gas fractions of low redshift X-ray-selected groups and clusters. We find that the increased feedback can help to reduce the so-called S8 tension between the observed and CMB-predicted clustering on small scales as probed by cosmic shear (although at the expense of agreement with the X-ray group measurements). However, the increased feedback is only marginally effective at reducing the reported offsets between the predicted and observed clustering as probed by the thermal SZ (tSZ) effect power spectrum and tSZ effect--weak lensing cross-spectrum, both of which are sensitive to higher halo masses than cosmic shear.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2025

The FLAMINGO project: Baryon effects on the matter power spectrum

The effect of baryon physics associated with galaxy formation onto the large-scale matter distribution of the Universe is a key uncertainty in the theoretical modelling required for the interpretation of Stage IV surveys. We use the FLAMINGO simulations to study the baryon response due to galaxy formation of the total matter power spectrum. We find that it is only well converged for simulation volumes in excess of $200^3$ Mpc$^3$. We report results for simulations of varying feedback intensity, which either match the X-ray inferred gas fractions in clusters and the $z=0$ stellar mass function, or shifted versions of the data, as well as for different implementations of AGN feedback. We package our results in the form of a Gaussian process emulator which can rapidly reproduce all the simulations' predictions to better than one per cent up to the comoving wavenumber $k = 10~h$ Mpc$^{-1}$ and up to $z=3$ for all the feedback models present in the FLAMINGO suite. We find that the response becomes stronger, the range of scales affected increases, and the position of the minimum of the response moves to smaller scales as the redshift decreases. We find that lower gas fractions in groups and clusters lead to a stronger response and that the use of collimated jets instead of thermally driven winds for AGN feedback enhances the effect. Lowering the stellar masses at fixed cluster gas fractions also increases the magnitude of the response. We find only a small (1% at $k<10~h$ Mpc$^{-1}$) dependence of our results on the background cosmology, but a wider range of cosmology variations will be needed to confirm this result. The response we obtain for our strongest feedback models is compatible with some of the recent analyses combining weak lensing with external data. Such a response is, however, in strong tension with the X-ray inferred gas fractions in clusters used to calibrate the FLAMINGO model.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2025

On the accuracy of dark matter halo merger trees and the consequences for semi-analytic models of galaxy formation

Galaxy formation and evolution models, such as semi-analytic models, are powerful theoretical tools for predicting how galaxies evolve across cosmic time. These models follow the evolution of galaxies based on the halo assembly histories inferred from large $N$-body cosmological simulations. This process requires codes to identify halos ("halo finder") and to track their time evolution ("tree builder"). While these codes generally perform well, they encounter numerical issues when handling dense environments. In this paper, we present how relevant these issues are in state-of-the-art cosmological simulations. We characterize two major numerical artefacts in halo assembly histories: (i) the non-physical swapping of large amounts of mass between subhalos, and (ii) the sudden formation of already massive subhalos at late cosmic times. We quantify these artefacts for different combinations of halo finder (SUBFIND, VELOCIRAPTOR, HBT-HERONS) and tree builder codes (D-TRESS+DHALO, TREEFROG, HBT-HERONS), finding that in general more than $50\%$ ($80\%$) of the more massive subhalos with $>10^{3}$ ($>10^{4}$) particles at $z=0$ inherit them in most cases. However, HBT-HERONS, which explicitly incorporates temporal information, effectively reduces the occurrence of these artefacts to $5\%$ ($10\%$). We then use the semi-analytic models SHARK and GALFORM to explore how these artefacts impact galaxy formation predictions. We demonstrate that the issues above lead to non-physical predictions in galaxies hosted by affected halos, particularly in SHARK where the modelling of baryons relies on subhalo information. Finally, we propose and implement fixes for the numerical artefacts at the semi-analytic model level, and use SHARK to show the improvements, especially at the high-mass end, after applying them.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2025

REMIX SPH -- improving mixing in smoothed particle hydrodynamics simulations using a generalised, material-independent approach

We present REMIX, a smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) scheme designed to alleviate effects that typically suppress mixing and instability growth at density discontinuities in SPH simulations. We approach this problem by directly targeting sources of kernel smoothing error and discretisation error, resulting in a generalised, material-independent formulation that improves the treatment both of discontinuities within a single material, for example in an ideal gas, and of interfaces between dissimilar materials. This approach also leads to improvements in capturing wider hydrodynamic behaviour unrelated to mixing. We demonstrate marked improvements in three-dimensional test scenarios, focusing on cases with particles of equal mass across the simulation. This choice is particularly relevant for use cases in astrophysics and engineering -- specifically those in which particles are free to evolve over a large range of density scales -- where bespoke choices of unequal particle masses in the initial conditions cannot easily be used to address emergent and evolving density discontinuities. We achieve these improvements while maintaining sharp discontinuities; without introducing additional equation of state dependence in, for example, particle volume elements; and without contrived or targeted corrections. Our methods build upon a fully compressible and thermodynamically consistent core-SPH construction, retaining Galilean invariance as well as conservation of mass, momentum, and energy. REMIX is integrated in the open-source, state-of-the-art SWIFT code and is designed with computational efficiency also in mind, meaning that its improved hydrodynamic treatment can be used for high-resolution simulations without prohibitive cost to run-speed.

physics.comp-ph↗

arXiv2025

The abundance and nature of high-redshift quiescent galaxies from JADES spectroscopy and the FLAMINGO simulations

We use NIRSpec/MSA spectroscopy and NIRCam imaging to study a sample of 18 massive ($\log\; M_{*}/M_{\odot} \gt 10\;$dex), central quiescent galaxies at $2\leq z \leq 5$ in the GOODS fields, to investigate their number density, star-formation histories, quenching timescales, and incidence of AGN. The data depth reaches $\log M_*/M_\odot \approx 9\;$dex, yet the least-massive central quiescent galaxy found has $\log M_*/M_\odot \gt 10\;$dex, suggesting that quenching is regulated by a physical quantity that scales with $M_*$. With spectroscopy, we assess the completeness and purity of photometric samples, finding number densities 10 times higher than predicted by galaxy formation models, confirming earlier photometric studies. We compare our number densities to predictions from FLAMINGO, the largest-box full-hydro simulation suite to date. We rule out cosmic variance at the 3-$σ$ level, providing spectroscopic confirmation that galaxy formation models do not match observations at $z>3$. Using FLAMINGO, we find that the vast majority of quiescent galaxies' stars formed in situ, with these galaxies not having undergone multiple major dry mergers. This is in agreement with the compact observed size of these systems and suggests that major mergers are not a viable channel for quenching most massive galaxies. Several of our observed galaxies are old, with four galaxies displaying 4000-Å breaks with formation and quenching redshifts of $z\geq8$ and $z\geq6$. Using tracers, we find that 8 galaxies host AGN, including old systems suggesting a high AGN duty cycle with a continuing trickle of gas to fuel accretion.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2025

The FLAMINGO project: cosmology with the redshift dependence of weak gravitational lensing peaks

Weak gravitational lensing (WL) convergence peaks contain valuable cosmological information in the regime of non-linear collapse. Using the FLAMINGO suite of cosmological hydrodynamical simulations, we study the physical origin and redshift distributions of the objects generating WL peaks selected from a WL convergence map mimicking a $\textit{Euclid}$ signal. We match peaks to individual haloes and show that the high signal-to-noise ratio (SNR$~>~5$) WL peaks measured by Stage IV WL surveys primarily trace $M_{\mathrm{200c}} > 10^{14}~\mathrm{M_\odot}$ haloes. We find that the WL peak sample can compete with the purity and completeness of state-of-the-art X-ray and Sunyaev-Zel'dovich cluster abundance inferences. By comparing the distributions predicted by simulation variations that have been calibrated to the observed gas fractions of local clusters and the present-day galaxy stellar mass function, or shifted versions of these, we illustrate that the shape of the redshift distribution of SNR$~>~5$ peaks is insensitive to baryonic physics while it does change with cosmology. The difference highlights the potential of using WL peaks to constrain cosmology. As the WL convergence and redshift number densities of WL peaks scale differently with cosmology and baryonic feedback, WL peak statistics can simultaneously calibrate baryonic feedback and constrain cosmology.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2025

The Emperor's New Arc: gigaparsec patterns abound in a $Λ$CDM universe

Recent discoveries of apparent large-scale features in the structure of the universe, extending over many hundreds of megaparsecs, have been claimed to contradict the large-scale isotropy and homogeneity foundational to the standard ($Λ$CDM) cosmological model. We explicitly test and refute this conjecture using FLAMINGO-10K, a new and very large cosmological simulation of the growth of structure in a $Λ$CDM context. Applying the same methods used in the observations, we show that patterns like the "Giant Arc", supposedly in tension with the standard model, are, in fact, common and expected in a $Λ$CDM universe. We also show that their reported significant overdensities are an algorithmic artefact and unlikely to reflect any underlying structure.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2025

Modeling submillimeter galaxies in cosmological simulations: Contribution to the cosmic star formation density and predictions for future surveys

Submillimeter galaxies (SMGs) constitute a key population of bright star-forming galaxies at high redshift. These galaxies challenge galaxy formation models, particularly in reproducing their observed number counts and redshift distributions. Furthermore, although SMGs contribute significantly to the cosmic star formation rate density (SFRD), their precise role remains uncertain. Upcoming surveys, such as the Ultra Deep Survey with the TolTEC camera, are expected to offer valuable insights into SMG properties and their broader impact. Robust modeling of SMGs in a cosmologically representative volume is necessary to investigate their nature in preparation for next-generation submillimeter surveys. We implement and test parametric relations derived from radiative transfer calculations across three cosmological simulations: EAGLE, IllustrisTNG, and FLAMINGO. Particular emphasis is placed on the FLAMINGO due to their large volume and robust statistical sampling of SMGs. Based on the model that best reproduces observations, we forecast submillimeter fluxes within the simulations, analyze the properties of SMGs, and evaluate their evolution over cosmic time. Our results show that the FLAMINGO reproduces the observed redshift distribution and source number counts of SMGs without requiring a top-heavy initial mass function. On the other hand, the EAGLE and IllustrisTNG show a deficit of bright SMGs. We find that SMGs with S850 > 1 mJy contribute up to 27% of the SFRD at z=2.6 in the FLAMINGO, consistent with recent observations. Flux density functions reveal a rise in SMG abundance from z = 6 to 2.5, followed by a sharp decline in the number of brighter SMGs from z = 2.5 to 0. Leveraging the SMG population in FLAMINGO, we forecast that the TolTEC UDS will detect 80,000 sources over 0.8 deg^2 at 1.1 mm (at the 4σ detection limit), capturing about 50% of the cosmic SFRD at z=2.5.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2025

The effects of super-Eddington accretion and feedback on the growth of early supermassive black holes and galaxies

We present results of cosmological zoom-in simulations of a massive protocluster down to redshift $z\approx4$ (when the halo mass is $\approx10^{13}$ M$_\odot$) using the SWIFT code and the EAGLE galaxy formation model, focusing on supermassive black hole (BH) physics. The BH was seeded with a mass of $10^4$ M$_\odot$ at redshift $z\approx17$. We compare the base model that uses an Eddington limit on the BH accretion rate and thermal isotropic feedback by the AGN, with one where super-Eddington accretion is allowed, as well as two other models with BH spin and jets. In the base model, the BH grows at the Eddington limit from $z=9$ to $z=5.5$, when it becomes massive enough to halt its own and its host galaxy's growth through feedback. We find that allowing super-Eddington accretion leads to drastic differences, with the BH going through an intense but short super-Eddington growth burst around $z\approx7.5$, during which it increases its mass by orders of magnitude, before feedback stops further growth (of both the BH and the galaxy). By $z\approx4$ the galaxy is only half as massive in the super-Eddington cases, and an order of magnitude more extended, with the half-mass radius reaching values of a few physical kpc instead of a few hundred pc. The BH masses in our simulations are consistent with the intrinsic BH mass$-$stellar mass relation inferred from high-redshift observations by JWST. This shows that galaxy formation models using the $Λ$CDM cosmology are capable of reproducing the observed massive BHs at high redshift. Allowing jets, either at super- or sub-Eddington rates, has little impact on the host galaxy properties, but leads to lower BH masses as a consequence of higher feedback efficiencies.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2025

The FLAMINGO Project: An assessment of the systematic errors in the predictions of models for galaxy cluster counts used to infer cosmological parameters

Galaxy cluster counts have historically been important for the measurement of cosmological parameters and upcoming surveys will greatly reduce the statistical errors. To exploit the potential of current and future cluster surveys, theoretical uncertainties on the predicted abundance must be smaller than the statistical errors. Models used to predict cluster counts typically combine a model for the dark matter only (DMO) halo mass function (HMF) with an observable - mass relation that is assumed to be a power-law with lognormal scatter. We use the FLAMINGO suite of cosmological hydrodynamical simulations to quantify the biases in the cluster counts and cosmological parameters resulting from the different ingredients of conventional models. For the observable mass proxy we focus on the Compton-Y parameter quantifying the thermal Sunyaev-Zel'dovich effect, which is expected to result in cluster samples that are relatively close to mass-selected samples. We construct three mock samples based on existing (Planck and SPT) and upcoming (Simons Observatory) surveys. We ignore measurement uncertainties and compare the biases in the counts and inferred cosmological parameters to each survey's Poisson errors. We find that widely used models for the DMO HMF differ significantly from each other and from the DMO version of FLAMINGO, leading to significant biases for all three surveys. For upcoming surveys, dramatic improvements are needed for all additional model ingredients, i.e. the functional forms of the fits to the observable-mass scaling relation and the associated scatter, the priors on the scaling relation and the prior on baryonic effects associated with feedback processes on the HMF.

astro-ph.CO↗