arXiv subjects

Mauri J. Valtonen

Publications and source records attributed to Mauri J. Valtonen.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

The October 2022 flare in OJ 287 and the mass of its primary black hole

The bright blazar OJ~287 has demonstrated a sequence of flares, which are well explained by a quasi-Keplerian orbit model. The flares are associated with the impact of the secondary on the accretion disk of the primary. The orbit must precess in order to produce the correct sequence of flares, and from the precession rate we calculate the mass of the primary. This precession rate gives the mass of the primary $M_{BH} = (18.35\pm0.05) \times 10^9 M_{\odot}$. Two kinds of flares have been identified: direct flares from the impacts, and tidal flares arising from an increased accretion flow into the jet. The precession rate and the primary black hole mass may be independently determined from both sets of flares; the tidal flare of October 2022 was recommended for an intense campaign for this reason. This paper describes these observations over a wide spectral range. We show that the October 2022 flare fits the expectations for a tidal flare and thus supports the earlier determination of the mass of the binary black hole system in OJ 287. The mass of the primary may also be deduced from secondary indicators such as the correlation with the hydrogen line strength and the black hole mass. These studies require that the mass is above $M_{BH} \sim 10^{10} M_{\odot}$, but do not specify the value more exactly.

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arXiv2026

Multi-band optical photometric variability of the blazar OJ 287 from 2015 to 2025

We present the most densely sampled multi-band optical photometric observations of the peculiar BL Lacertae object OJ 287 from 2015 to 2025 with a focus on its optical activity on diverse timescales. We present a total of 2296, 10927, 11484, and 2982 data points in B, V, R, and I bands, respectively. The densely sampled observations allow us to keep track of the source evolution that it has exhibited since the start of the predicted major optical flaring activity at the end of 2015. The study reveals clear and persistent bluer when brighter trends in both the long-term and short-term variations. Different bands were cross-correlated with discrete correlation functions, which peak at zero lag, implying co-spatial emission. Using eight optical spectra in the low flux states of OJ 287 taken from 2017 October 21 to 2017 November 22, from Steward Observatory, we estimate the central black hole mass to be at least 3.89 $\times \ \rm{10}^{9} \ \rm{M}_{\odot}$ from the [O III] line width. The emission mechanism of the binary black hole blazar, and its possible implication in various aspects of multi-messenger astronomy are briefly discussed.

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arXiv2026

Detection of optical quasi-periodic oscillation in the blazar 3C 454.3

We analyzed 19 years of $R$-band data of the blazar 3C 454.3 from the Whole Earth Blazar Telescope (WEBT) archive, along with new data from its members and from public archives such as those provided by the Small and Moderate Aperture Research Telescope System (SMARTS) and the Steward Observatory projects to search for quasi-periodic oscillations (QPOs). We detected a QPO of $\sim$ 433 days using Lomb-Scargle periodogram, which lasted from MJD 54980--58450 as detected by the weighted wavelet Z-transform technique, making it one of the most persistent QPOs ever detected in the optical regime. The phase dispersion minimization technique was also performed to further validate this QPO claim. We detected this signal at a global significance of $2.53σ$ across all methodologies. To explain the observed QPO, we have considered both models focused on the accretion disk around the super-massive black hole (SMBH), and those based purely on jet emissions. Plausible jet-based models involve a shock moving down the jet in a helical magnetic field, whereas the SMBH models could involve Lense-Thirring effect-induced jet precession or dual jets in a binary SMBH system. We introduce a novel approach to distinguish genuine QPOs from spurious signals arising from annual seasonal gaps, a common limitation of ground-based observations.

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arXiv2026

Detection of quasi-periodic oscillations in the 37 GHz radio light curve of the blazar Ton 599 during 1990-2020

Blazars are a subclass of radio-loud active galactic nuclei (AGNs) that display strong multi-wavelength variability on diverse timescales ranging from years down to minutes. In the last 1.5 decades, there have been occasional detections of quasi-periodic oscillations in several blazars in their time series data. We search for quasi-periodic oscillations (QPOs) in the 37 GHz radio band light curve of the flat-spectrum radio quasar Ton~599 made at the RT-22 radio telescope in Simeiz, Crimea, from 1990 to 2020. To identify and quantify the QPO nature of this radio light curve of Ton 599, we used the Lomb-Scargle periodogram (LSP), REDFIT, and weighted wavelet Z-transform (WWZ) analyses. We report the detection of a likely QPO of about 2.4 years in the 37 GHz radio light curves of Ton 599. We briefly discuss possible emission models for radio-loud active galactic nuclei that could explain such QPOs with periods of a few years.

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arXiv2025

Identifying the secondary jet in the RadioAstron image of OJ~287

The 136 year long optical light curve of OJ~287 is explained by a binary black hole model where the secondary is in a 12 year orbit around the primary. Impacts of the secondary on the accretion disk of the primary generate a series of optical flares which follow a quasi-Keplerian relativistic mathematical model. The orientation of the binary in space is determined from the behavior of the primary jet. Here we ask how the jet of the secondary black hole projects onto the sky plane. Assuming that the jet is initially perpendicular to the disk, and that it is ballistic, we follow its evolution after the Lorentz transformation to the observer's frame. Since the orbital speed of the secondary is of the order of one-tenth of the speed of light, the result is a change in the jet direction by more than a radian during an orbital cycle. We match the theoretical jet line with the recent 12 $μ$as-resolution RadioAstron map of OJ~287, and determine the only free parameter of the problem, the apparent speed of the jet relative to speed of light. It turns out that the Doppler factor of the jet, $δ\sim5$, is much lower than in the primary jet. Besides following a unique shape of the jet path, the secondary jet is also distinguished by a different spectral shape than in the primary jet. The present result on the spectral shape agrees with the huge optical flare of 2021 November 12, also arising from the secondary jet.

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arXiv2025

On the evidence of a dark matter density spike around the primary black hole in OJ 287

The central engine of blazar OJ~287 is arguably the most notable supermassive black hole (SMBH) binary candidate that emits nano-Hertz (nHz) gravitational waves. This inference is mainly due to our ability to predict and successfully monitor certain quasi-periodic doubly peaked high brightness flares with a period of $\sim$12 years from this blazer. The use of post-Newtonian accurate SMBH binary orbital description that includes the effects of higher order GW emission turned out to be a crucial ingredient for accurately predicting the epochs of such Bremsstrahlung flares in our SMBH binary central engine description for OJ~287. It was very recently argued that one should include the effects of dynamical friction, induced by certain dark matter density spikes around the primary SMBH, to explain the {\it observed} decay of SMBH binary orbit in OJ~287. Invoking binary pulsar timing-based arguments, measurements, and OJ~287's orbital description, we show that observationally relevant SMBH binary orbital dynamics in OJ~287 are insensitive to dark matter-induced dynamical friction effects. This implies that we could only provide an upper bound on the spike index parameter rather than obtaining an observationally derived value, as argued by \cite{Chan2024}.

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arXiv2024

Spectral Energy Distribution Variability of the Blazar OJ 287 during 2009-2021

Using nearly simultaneous radio, near-infrared, optical, and ultraviolet data collected since 2009, we constructed 106 spectral energy distributions (SEDs) of the blazar OJ 287. These SEDs were well-fitted by a log-parabolic model. By classifying the data into `flare' and `quiescent' segments, we found that the median flux at peak frequency of the SEDs during flare segments was 0.37$\pm$0.22 dex higher compared to quiescent segments, while no significant differences were observed in the median values of the curvature parameter $b$ or the peak frequency $\log ν_{\mathrm{p}}$. A significant bluer-when-brighter trend was confirmed through a relation between $V$ magnitude and $B-V$ color index, with this trend being stronger in the flare segments. Additionally, a significant anti-correlation was detected between $\log ν_{\mathrm{p}}$ and $b$, with a slope of 5.79 in the relation between $1/b$ and $\log ν_{\mathrm{p}}$, closer to the prediction from a statistical acceleration model other than a stochastic acceleration interpretation, though a notable discrepancy persists. This discrepancy indicates that additional factors, such as deviations from idealized conditions or radiative contributions-such as thermal emission from the accretion disk in the optical-UV range during quiescent states-may play a role in producing the observed steeper slope. Within the framework of statistical acceleration mechanism, lack of correlation between change in peak intensity and change in peak frequency suggests that change in electron energy distribution is unlikely to be responsible for the time-dependent SED changes. Instead, changes in Doppler boosting or magnetic fields may have a greater influence.

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arXiv2024

No missing flare in OJ~287

The quasar OJ~287 has shown large flares since 1888, following a pattern that arises in a supermassive black hole binary when the secondary hits the accretion disk of the primary, and releases a hot bubble of gas at every disk crossing. A complete mathematical solution of the flare sequence produced a list of future flares, the latest happening in the summer of 2022. Here I look into the origin of the idea that the lack of seeing the 2022 flare is a theoretical problem. During the summer OJ~287 cannot be observed by ground-based optical telescopes. In a paper published in 2021, ahead of the 2022 observing campaign, this was clearly stated. The often repeated claim that there is a "missing flare problem", is a misunderstanding, as no detection was possible with the current instrumentation.

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arXiv2024

Evidence of jet activity from the secondary black hole in the OJ287 binary system

We report the study of a huge optical intraday flare on November 12, 2021, at 2 am UT, in the blazar OJ287. In the binary black hole model it is associated with an impact of the secondary black hole on the accretion disk of the primary. Our multifrequency observing campaign was set up to search for such a signature of the impact, based on a prediction made eight years earlier. The first I-band results of the flare have already been reported by \cite{2024ApJ...960...11K}. Here we combine these data with our monitoring in the R-band. There is a big change in the R-I spectral index by $1.0\pm0.1$ between the normal background and the flare, suggesting a new component of radiation. The polarization variation during the rise of the flare suggests the same. The limits on the source size place it most reasonably in the jet of the secondary black hole. We then ask why we have not seen this phenomenon before. We show that OJ287 was never before observed with sufficient sensitivity on the night when the flare should have happened according to the binary model. We also study the probability that this flare is just an oversized example of intraday variability, using the Krakow-dataset of intense monitoring between 2015 and 2023. We find that the occurrence of a flare of this size and rapidity is unlikely. In the Appendix, we give the full orbit-linked historical light curve of OJ287 as well as the dense monitoring sample of Krakow.

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arXiv2023

Quasi-simultaneous Optical Flux and Polarization Variability of the Binary Super Massive Black Hole Blazar OJ 287 from 2015 to 2023: Detection of an Anticorrelation in Flux and Polarization Variability

We study the optical flux and polarization variability of the binary black hole blazar OJ 287 using quasi-simultaneous observations from 2015 to 2023 carried out using telescopes in the USA, Japan, Russia, Crimea, and Bulgaria. This is one of the most extensive quasi-simultaneous optical flux and polarization variability studies of OJ 287. OJ 287 showed large amplitude, ~3.0 mag flux variability, large changes of ~37% in degree of polarization, and a large swing of ~215 degrees in the angle of the electric vector of polarization. During the period of observation, several flares in flux were detected. Those flares are correlated with a rapid increase in the degree of polarization and swings in electric vector of polarization angle. A peculiar behavior of anticorrelation between flux and polarization degree, accompanied by a nearly constant polarization angle, was detected from JD 2,458,156 to JD 2,458,292. We briefly discuss some explanations for the flux and polarization variations observed in OJ 287.

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arXiv2023

On the need of an ultramassive black hole in OJ 287

The highly variable blazar OJ~287 is commonly discussed as an example of a binary black hole system. The 130 year long optical light curve is well explained by a model where the central body is a massive black hole of 18.35$\times$10$^9$ solar mass that supports a thin accretion disc. The secondary black hole of 0.15$\times$10$^9$ solar mass impacts the disc twice during its 12 year orbit, and causes observable flares. Recently, it has been argued that an accretion disc with a typical AGN accretion rate and above mentioned central body mass should be at least six magnitudes brighter than OJ~287's host galaxy and would therefore be observationally excluded. Based on the observations of OJ~287's radio jet, detailed in Marscher and Jorstad (2011), and up-to-date accretion disc models of Azadi et al. (2022), we show that the V-band magnitude of the accretion disc is unlikely to exceed the host galaxy brightness by more than one magnitude, and could well be fainter than the host. This is because accretion power is necessary to launch the jet as well as to create electromagnetic radiation, distributed across many wavelengths, and not concentrated especially on the optical V-band. Further, we note that the claimed V-band concentration of accretion power leads to serious problems while interpreting observations of other Active Galactic Nuclei. Therefore, we infer that the mass of the primary black hole and its accretion rate do not need to be smaller than what is determined in the standard model for OJ~287.

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arXiv2023

Observational Implications of OJ 287's Predicted 2022 Disk Impact in the Black Hole Binary Model

We present a summary of the results of the OJ 287 observational campaign, which was carried out during the 2021/2022 observational season. This season is special in the binary model because the major axis of the precessing binary happens to lie almost exactly in the plane of the accretion disc of the primary. This leads to pairs of almost identical impacts between the secondary black hole and the accretion disk in 2005 and 2022. In 2005, a special flare called "blue flash" was observed 35 days after the disk impact, which should have also been verifiable in 2022. We did observe a similar flash and were able to obtain more details of its properties. We describe this in the framework of expanding cloud models. In addition, we were able to identify the flare arising exactly at the time of the disc crossing from its photo-polarimetric and gamma-ray properties. This is an important identification, as it directly confirms the orbit model. Moreover, we saw a huge flare that lasted only one day. We may understand this as the lighting up of the jet of the secondary black hole when its Roche lobe is suddenly flooded by the gas from the primary disk. Therefore, this may be the first time we directly observed the secondary black hole in the OJ 287 binary system.

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arXiv2023

Refining the 2022 OJ 287 impact flare arrival epoch

The bright blazar OJ~287 routinely parades high brightness bremsstrahlung flares, which are explained as being a result of a secondary supermassive black hole (SMBH) impacting the accretion disc of a more massive primary SMBH in a binary system. The accretion disc is not rigid but rather bends in a calculable way due to the tidal influence of the secondary. Below we refer to this phenomenon as a variable disc level. We begin by showing that these flares occur at times predicted by a simple analytical formula, based on general relativity inspired modified Kepler equation, which explains impact flares since 1888. The 2022 impact flare, namely flare number 26, is rather peculiar as it breaks the typical pattern of two impact flares per 12-year cycle. This is the third bremsstrahlung flare of the current cycle that follows the already observed 2015 and 2019 impact flares from OJ~287. It turns out that the arrival epoch of flare number 26 is sensitive to the level of primary SMBH's accretion disc relative to its mean level in our model. We incorporate these tidally induced changes in the level of the accretion disc to infer that the thermal flare should have occurred during July-August 2022, when it was not possible to observe it from the Earth. Thereafter, we explore possible observational evidence for certain pre-flare activity by employing spectral and polarimetric data from our campaigns in 2004/05 and 2021/22. We point out theoretical and observational implications of two observed mini-flares during January-February 2022.

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arXiv2022

Refining the prediction for OJ 287 next impact flare arrival epoch

The bright blazar OJ~287 routinely parades high brightness bremsstrahlung flares which are explained as being a result of a secondary supermassive black hole (SMBH) impacting the accretion disk of a primary SMBH in a binary system. We begin by showing that these flares occur at times predicted by a simple analytical formula, based on the Kepler equation, which explains flares since 1888. The next impact flare, namely the flare number 26, is rather peculiar as it breaks the typical pattern of two impact flares per 12 year cycle. This will be the third bremsstrahlung flare of the current cycle that follows the already observed 2015 and 2019 impact flares from OJ~287. Unfortunately, astrophysical considerations make it difficult to predict the exact arrival epoch of the flare number 26. In the second part of the paper, we describe our recent OJ~287 observations. They show that the pre-flare light curve of flare number 22, observed in 2005, exhibits similar activity as the pre-flare light curve in 2022, preceding the expected flare number 26 in our model. We argue that the pre-flare activity most likely arises in the primary jet whose activity is modulated by the transit of the secondary SMBH through the accretion disk of the primary. Observing the next impact flare of OJ~287 in October 2022 will substantiate the theory of disk impacts in binary black hole systems.

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arXiv2022

Host galaxy magnitude of OJ 287 from its colours at minimum light

OJ 287 is a BL Lacertae type quasar in which the active galactic nucleus (AGN) outshines the host galaxy by an order of magnitude. The only exception to this may be at minimum light when the AGN activity is so low that the host galaxy may make quite a considerable contribution to the photometric intensity of the source. Such a dip or a fade in the intensity of OJ 287 occurred in November 2017, when its brightness was about 1.75 magnitudes lower than the recent mean level. We compare the observations of this fade with similar fades in OJ 287 observed earlier in 1989, 1999, and 2010. It appears that there is a relatively strong reddening of the B$-$V colours of OJ 287 when its V-band brightness drops below magnitude 17. Similar changes are also seen V$-$R, V$-$I, and R$-$I colours during these deep fades. These data support the conclusion that the total magnitude of the host galaxy is $V=18.0 \pm 0.3$, corresponding to $M_{K}=-26.5 \pm 0.3$ in the K-band. This is in agreement with the results, obtained using the integrated surface brightness method, from recent surface photometry of the host. These results should encourage us to use the colour separation method also in other host galaxies with strongly variable AGN nuclei. In the case of OJ 287, both the host galaxy and its central black hole are among the biggest known, and its position in the black hole mass-galaxy mass diagram lies close to the mean correlation.

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arXiv2021

Promise of persistent multi-messenger astronomy with the blazar OJ 287

Successful observations of the seven predicted bremsstrahlung flares from the unique bright blazar OJ 287 firmly point to the presence of a nanohertz gravitational wave (GW) emitting supermassive black hole (SMBH) binary central engine. We present arguments for the continued monitoring of the source in several electromagnetic windows to firmly establish various details of the SMBH binary central engine description for OJ 287. In this article, we explore what more can be known about this system, particularly with regard to accretion and outflows from its two accretion disks. We mainly concentrate on the expected impact of the secondary black hole on the disk of the primary on December 3, 2021, and the resulting electromagnetic signals in the following years. We also predict the times of exceptional fades and outline their usefulness in the study of the host galaxy. A spectral survey has been carried out, and spectral lines from the secondary were searched for but not found. The jet of the secondary has been studied and proposals to discover it in future VLBI observations are mentioned. In conclusion, the binary black hole model explains a large number of observations of different kinds in OJ 287. Carefully timed future observations will be able to provide further details of its central engine. Such multi-wavelength and multidisciplinary efforts will be required to pursue multi-messenger nanohertz GW astronomy with OJ 287 in the coming decades.

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arXiv2021

Probing the innermost regions of AGN jets and their magnetic fields with RadioAstron. V. Space and ground millimeter-VLBI imaging of OJ 287

We present the first polarimetric space VLBI observations of OJ 287, observed with RadioAstron at 22 GHz during a perigee session on 2014 April 4 and five near-in-time snapshots, together with contemporaneous ground VLBI observations at 15, 43, and 86 GHz. Ground-space fringes were obtained up to a projected baseline of 3.9 Earth diameters during the perigee session, and at a record 15.1 Earth diameters during the snapshot sessions, allowing us to image the innermost jet at an angular resolution of $\sim50μ$as, the highest ever achieved at 22 GHz for OJ 287. Comparison with ground-based VLBI observations reveals a progressive jet bending with increasing angular resolution that agrees with predictions from a supermassive binary black hole model, although other models cannot be ruled out. Spectral analyses suggest that the VLBI core is dominated by the internal energy of the emitting particles during the onset of a multi-wavelength flare, while the parsec-scale jet is consistent with being in equipartition between the particles and magnetic field. Estimated minimum brightness temperatures from the visibility amplitudes show a continued rising trend with projected baseline length up to $10^{13}$ K, reconciled with the inverse Compton limit through Doppler boosting for a jet closely oriented to the line of sight. The observed electric vector position angle suggests that the innermost jet has a predominantly toroidal magnetic field, which together with marginal evidence of a gradient in rotation measure across the jet width indicate that the VLBI core is threaded by a helical magnetic field, in agreement with jet formation models.

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arXiv2021

Explaining temporal variations in the jet position angle of the blazar OJ 287 using its binary black hole central engine model

The bright blazar OJ 287 is the best-known candidate for hosting a supermassive black hole binary system. It inspirals due to the emission of nanohertz gravitational waves (GWs). Observations of historical and predicted quasi-periodic high-brightness flares in its century-long optical lightcurve, allow us to determine the orbital parameters associated with the binary black hole (BBH) central engine. In contrast, the radio jet of OJ 287 has been covered with Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) observations for only about $30$ years and these observations reveal that the position angle (PA) of the jet exhibits temporal variations at both millimetre and centimetre wavelengths. Here we associate the observed PA variations in OJ 287 with the precession of its radio jet. In our model, the evolution of the jet direction can be associated either with the primary black hole (BH) spin evolution or with the precession of the angular momentum direction of the inner region of the accretion disc. Our Bayesian analysis shows that the BBH central engine model, primarily developed from optical observations, can also broadly explain the observed temporal variations in the radio jet of OJ 287 at frequencies of 86, 43, and 15 GHz. Ongoing Global mm-VLBI Array (GMVA) observations of OJ 287 have the potential to verify our predictions for the evolution of its $86$ GHz PA values. Additionally, thanks to the extremely high angular resolution that the Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) can provide, we explore the possibility to test our BBH model through the detection of the jet in the secondary black hole.

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