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Maya Fishbach

Publications and source records attributed to Maya Fishbach.

At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources

Bridging the Gap: Categorizing Gravitational-Wave Events at the Transition Between Neutron Stars and Black Holes

We search for features in the mass distribution of detected compact binary coalescences which signify the transition between neutron stars and black holes. We analyze all gravitational wave detections by LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA made through the end of the first half of the third observing run, and find clear evidence for two different populations of compact objects based solely on gravitational wave data. We confidently (99.3%) find a steepening relative to a single power law describing neutron stars and low-mass black holes below $2.4^{+0.5}_{-0.5}\text{ M}_{\odot}$, which is consistent with many predictions for the maximum neutron star mass. We find suggestions of the purported lower mass gap between the most massive neutron stars and the least massive black holes, but are unable to conclusively resolve it with current data. If it exists, we find the lower mass gap's edges to lie at $2.2^{+0.7}_{-0.5}\text{ M}_{\odot}$ and $6.0^{+2.4}_{-1.4}\text{ M}_{\odot}$. We re-examine events that have been deemed "exceptional" by the LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA collaborations in the context of these features. We analyze GW190814 self-consistently in the context of the full population of compact binaries, finding support for its secondary to be either a neutron star or a lower mass gap object, consistent with previous claims. Our models are the first to accommodate this event, which is an outlier with respect to the binary black hole population. We find that GW200105 and GW200115 probe the edges of, and may have components within, the lower mass gap. As future data improve global population models, the classification of these events will also improve.

astro-ph.HE

An Isotropy Measurement with Gravitational Wave Observations

We constrain the distribution of merging compact binaries across the celestial sphere using the GWTC-3 catalog from the LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA Collaborations' (LVK) third observing run. With 63 confident detections from O3, we constrain the relative variability (standard deviation) of the rate density across the sky to be $\lesssim 16\%$ at 90\% confidence assuming the logarithm of the rate density is described by a Gaussian random field with correlation length $\geq 10^\circ$. This tightens to $\lesssim 3.5\%$ when the correlation length is $\geq 20^\circ$. While the new O3 data provides the tightest constraints on anisotropies available to-date, we do not find overwhelming evidence in favor of isotropy, either. A simple counting experiment favors an isotropic distribution by a factor of $\mathcal{B}^\mathrm{iso}_\mathrm{ani} = 3.7$, which is nonetheless an improvement of more than a factor of two compared to analogous analyses based on only the first and second observing runs of the LVK.

astro-ph.HE

The $χ_\mathrm{eff}-z$ correlation of field binary black hole mergers and how 3G gravitational-wave detectors can constrain it

Understanding the origin of merging binary black holes is currently one of the most pressing quests in astrophysics. We show that if isolated binary evolution dominates the formation mechanism of merging binary black holes, one should expect a correlation between the effective spin parameter, $χ_\mathrm{eff}$, and the redshift of the merger, $z$, of binary black holes. This correlation comes from tidal spin-up systems preferentially forming and merging at higher redshifts due to the combination of weaker orbital expansion from low metallicity stars given their reduced wind mass loss rate, delayed expansion and have smaller maximal radii during the supergiant phase compared to stars at higher metallicity. As a result, these tightly bound systems merge with short inspiral times. Given our fiducial model of isolated binary evolution, we show that the origin of a $χ_\mathrm{eff}-z$ correlation in the detectable LIGO--Virgo binary black hole population is different from the intrinsic population, which will become accessible only in the future by third-generation gravitational-wave detectors such as Einstein Telescope and Cosmic Explorer. Finally, we compare our model predictions with population predictions based on the current catalog of binary black hole mergers and find that current data favor a positive correlation of $χ_\mathrm{eff}-z$ as predicted by our model of isolated binary evolution.

astro-ph.HE

SOAR/Goodman Spectroscopic Assessment of Candidate Counterparts of the LIGO-Virgo Event GW190814

On 2019 August 14 at 21:10:39 UTC, the LIGO/Virgo Collaboration (LVC) detected a possible neutron star-black hole merger (NSBH), the first ever identified. An extensive search for an optical counterpart of this event, designated GW190814, was undertaken using the Dark Energy Camera (DECam) on the 4m Victor M. Blanco Telescope at the Cerro Tololo Inter-American Observatory. Target of Opportunity interrupts were issued on 8 separate nights to observe 11 candidates using the 4.1m Southern Astrophysical Research (SOAR) telescope's Goodman High Throughput Spectrograph in order to assess whether any of these transients was likely to be an optical counterpart of the possible NSBH merger. Here, we describe the process of observing with SOAR, the analysis of our spectra, our spectroscopic typing methodology, and our resultant conclusion that none of the candidates corresponded to the gravitational wave merger event but were all instead other transients. Finally, we describe the lessons learned from this effort. Application of these lessons will be critical for a successful community spectroscopic follow-up program for LVC observing run 4 (O4) and beyond.

astro-ph.HE

Apples and Oranges: Comparing black holes in X-ray binaries and gravitational-wave sources

The component black holes (BHs) observed in gravitational-wave (GW) binary black hole (BBH) events tend to be more massive and slower spinning than those observed in black hole X-ray binaries (BH-XRBs). Without modeling their evolutionary histories, we investigate whether these apparent tensions in the BH populations can be explained by GW observational selection effects alone. We find that this is indeed the case for the discrepancy between BH masses in BBHs and the observed high-mass X-ray binaries (HMXBs), when we account for statistical uncertainty from the small sample size of just three HMXBs. On the other hand, the BHs in observed low-mass X-ray binaries (LMXBs) are significantly lighter than the astrophysical BBH population, but this may just be due to a correlation between component masses in a binary system. Given their light stellar companions, we expect light BHs in LMXBs. The observed spins in HMXBs and LMXBs, however, are in tension with the inferred BBH spin distribution at the $>99.9\%$ level. We discuss possible scenarios behind the significantly larger spins in observed BH-XRBs. One possibility is that a small subpopulation (conservatively $<30\%$) of BBHs have rapidly spinning primary components, indicating that they may have followed a similar evolutionary pathway to the observed HMXBs. In LMXBs, it has been suggested that BHs can spin up by accretion. If LMXB natal spins follow the BBH spin distribution, we find LMXBs must gain an average dimensionless spin of $0.47^{+0.10}_{-0.11}$, but if their natal spins follow the observed HMXB spins, the average spinup must be $<0.03$.

astro-ph.HE

Probing Extremal Gravitational-Wave Events with Coarse-Grained Likelihoods

As catalogs of gravitational-wave transients grow, new records are set for the most extreme systems observed to date. The most massive observed black holes probe the physics of pair instability supernovae while providing clues about the environments in which binary black hole systems are assembled. The least massive black holes, meanwhile, allow us to investigate the purported neutron star-black hole mass gap, and binaries with unusually asymmetric mass ratios or large spins inform our understanding of binary and stellar evolution. Existing outlier tests generally implement leave-one-out analyses, but these do not account for the fact that the event being left out was by definition an extreme member of the population. This results in a bias in the evaluation of outliers. We correct for this bias by introducing a coarse-graining framework to investigate whether these extremal events are true outliers or whether they are consistent with the rest of the observed population. Our method enables us to study extremal events while testing for population model misspecification. We show that this ameliorates biases present in the leave-one-out analyses commonly used within the gravitational-wave community. Applying our method to results from the second LIGO--Virgo transient catalog, we find qualitative agreement with the conclusions of Abbott et al, ApJL 913 L7 (2021). GW190814 is an outlier because of its small secondary mass. We find that neither GW190412 nor GW190521 are outliers.

astro-ph.HE

Hierarchical mergers of stellar-mass black holes and their gravitational-wave signatures

We review theoretical findings, astrophysical modeling, and current gravitational-wave evidence of hierarchical stellar-mass black-hole mergers. While most of the compact binary mergers detected by LIGO and Virgo are expected to consist of first-generation black holes formed from the collapse of stars, others might instead be of second (or higher) generation, containing the remnants of previous black-hole mergers. Such a subpopulation of hierarchically assembled black holes presents distinctive gravitational-wave signatures, namely higher masses, possibly within the pair-instability mass gap, and dimensionless spins clustered at the characteristic value of $\sim$0.7. In order to produce hierarchical mergers, astrophysical environments need to overcome the relativistic recoils imparted to black-hole merger remnants, a condition which prefers hosts with escape speeds $\gtrsim$ 100 km/s. Promising locations for efficient production of hierarchical mergers include nuclear star clusters and accretion disks surrounding active galactic nuclei, though environments that are less efficient at retaining merger products such as globular clusters may still contribute significantly to the detectable population of repeated mergers. While GW190521 is the single most promising hierarchical-merger candidate to date, constraints coming from large population analyses are becoming increasingly more powerful.

astro-ph.HE

Cosmology with Standard Sirens at Cosmic Noon

Gravitational waves (GWs) directly measure the luminosity distance to the merger, which, when combined with an independent measurement of the source's redshift, provides a novel probe of cosmology. The proposed next generation of ground-based GW detectors, Einstein Telescope and Cosmic Explorer, will detect tens of thousands of binary neutron stars (BNSs) out to cosmological distances ($z>2$), beyond the peak of the star formation rate (SFR), or "cosmic noon." At these distances, it will be challenging to measure the sources' redshifts by observing electromagnetic (EM) counterparts or statistically marginalizing over a galaxy catalog. In the absence of an EM counterpart or galaxy catalog, Ding et al. showed that theoretical priors on the merger redshift distribution can be used to infer parameters in a $w$CDM cosmology. We argue that in the BNS case, the redshift distribution will be measured by independent observations of short gamma ray bursts (GRBs), kilonovae, and known BNS host galaxies. We show that, in addition to measuring the background cosmology, this method can constrain the effects of dark energy on modified GW propagation. We consider the simple case in which the BNS rate is \textit{a priori} known to follow the SFR. If the SFR is perfectly known, $\mathcal{O}(10,000)$ events (to be expected within a year of observation with Cosmic Explorer) would yield a sub-tenth percent measurement of the combination $H_0^{2.8}Ω_M$. Fixing $H_0$ and $Ω_M$, this method may enable a 5\% measurement of the dark energy equation of state parameter. Fixing the background cosmology and probing modified GW propagation, the running of the Planck mass parameter $c_M$ may be measured to $\pm0.02$. Although realistically, the redshift evolution of the merger rate will be uncertain, prior knowledge of the peak redshift will provide valuable information for standard siren analyses.

astro-ph.CO

The time delay distribution and formation metallicity of LIGO-Virgo's binary black holes

We derive the first constraints on the time delay distribution of binary black hole (BBH) mergers using the LIGO-Virgo Gravitational-Wave Transient Catalog GWTC-2. Assuming that the progenitor formation rate follows the star formation rate (SFR), the data favor that $43$--$100\%$ of mergers have delay times $<4.5$ Gyr (90% credibility). Adopting a model for the metallicity evolution, we derive joint constraints for the metallicity-dependence of the BBH formation efficiency and the distribution of time delays between formation and merger. Short time delays are favored regardless of the assumed metallicity dependence, although the preference for short delays weakens as we consider stricter low-metallicity thresholds for BBH formation. For a $p(τ) \propto τ^{-1}$ time delay distribution and a progenitor formation rate that follows the SFR without metallicity dependence, we find that $τ_\mathrm{min}<2.2$ Gyr, whereas considering only the low-metallicity $Z < 0.3\,Z_\odot$ SFR, $τ_\mathrm{min} < 3.0$ Gyr (90% credibility). Alternatively, if we assume long time delays, the progenitor formation rate must peak at higher redshifts than the SFR. For example, for a $p(τ) \propto τ^{-1}$ time delay distribution with $τ_\mathrm{min} = 4$ Gyr, the inferred progenitor rate peaks at $z > 3.9$ (90% credibility). Finally, we explore whether the inferred formation rate and time delay distribution vary with BBH mass.

astro-ph.HE

When are LIGO/Virgo's Big Black-Hole Mergers?

We study the evolution of the binary black hole (BBH) mass distribution across cosmic time. The second gravitational-wave transient catalog (GWTC-2) from LIGO/Virgo contains BBH events out to redshifts $z \sim 1$, with component masses in the range $\sim5$--$80\,M_\odot$. In this catalog, the biggest black holes, with $m_1 \gtrsim 45\,M_\odot$, are only found at the highest redshifts, $z \gtrsim 0.4$. We ask whether the absence of high-mass BBH observations at low redshift indicates that the astrophysical BBH mass distribution evolves: the biggest BBHs only merge at high redshift, and cease merging at low redshift. Alternatively, this feature might be explained by gravitational-wave selection effects. Modeling the BBH primary mass spectrum as a power law with a sharp maximum mass cutoff (Truncated model), we find that the cutoff increases with redshift ($> 99.9\%$ credibility). An abrupt cutoff in the mass spectrum is expected from (pulsational) pair instability supernova simulations; however, GWTC-2 is only consistent with a Truncated mass model if the location of the cutoff increases from $45^{+13}_{-5}\,M_\odot$ at $z < 0.4$ to $80^{+16}_{-13}\,M_\odot$ at $z > 0.4$. Alternatively, if the primary mass spectrum has a break in the power law (Broken power law) at ${38^{+15}_{-8}\,M_\odot}$, rather than a sharp cutoff, the data are consistent with a non-evolving mass distribution. In this case, the overall rate of mergers, at all masses, increases with increasing redshift. Future observations will confidently distinguish between a sharp maximum mass cutoff that evolves with redshift and a non-evolving mass distribution with a gradual taper, such as a Broken power law. After $\sim 100$ BBH merger observations, a continued absence of high-mass, low-redshift events would provide a clear signature that the mass distribution evolves with redshift.

astro-ph.HE

Do LIGO/Virgo black hole mergers produce AGN flares? The case of GW190521 and prospects for reaching a confident association

The recent report of an association of the gravitational-wave (GW) binary black hole (BBH) merger GW190521 with a flare in the Active Galactic Nuclei (AGN) J124942.3+344929 has generated tremendous excitement. However, GW190521 has one of the largest localization volumes amongst all of the GW events detected so far. The 90\% localization volume likely contains $7,400$ unobscured AGN brighter than $g \leq 20.5$ AB mag, and it results in a $\gtrsim 70\%$ probability of chance coincidence for an AGN flare consistent with the GW event. We present a Bayesian formalism to estimate the confidence of an AGN association by analyzing a population of BBH events with dedicated follow-up observations. Depending on the fraction of BBH arising from AGNs, counterpart searches of $\mathcal{O}(1)-\mathcal{O}(100)$ GW events are needed to establish a confident association, and more than an order of magnitude more for searches without followup (i.e, using only the locations of AGNs and GW events). Follow-up campaigns of the top $\sim 5\%$ (based on volume localization and binary mass) of BBH events with total rest frame mass $\ge 50~M_\odot$ are expected to establish a confident association during the next LIGO/Virgo/KAGRA observing run (O4), as long as the true value of the fraction of BBH giving rise to AGN flares is $>0.1$. Our formalism allows us to jointly infer cosmological parameters from a sample of BBH events that include chance coincidence flares. Until the confidence of AGN associations is established, the probability of chance coincidence must be taken into account to avoid biasing astrophysical and cosmological constraints.

astro-ph.HE

Minding the gap: GW190521 as a straddling binary

Models for black hole (BH) formation from stellar evolution robustly predict the existence of a pair-instability supernova (PISN) mass gap in the range $\sim50$ to $\sim120$ solar masses. This theoretical prediction is supported by the binary black holes (BBHs) of LIGO/Virgo's first two observing runs, whose component masses are well-fit by a power law with a maximum mass cutoff at $m_\mathrm{max}=40.8^{+11.8}_{-4.4}\,M_\odot$. Meanwhile, the BBH event GW190521 has a reported primary mass of $m_1=85^{+21}_{-14}\,M_\odot$, firmly above the inferred $m_\mathrm{max}$, and secondary mass $m_2=66^{+17}_{-18}\,M_\odot$. Rather than concluding that both components of GW190521 belong to a new population of mass-gap BHs, we explore the conservative scenario in which GW190521's secondary mass belongs to the previously-observed population of BHs. We replace the default priors on $m_1$ and $m_2$, which assume that BH detector-frame masses are uniformly distributed, with this population-informed prior on $m_2$, finding $m_2<48\,M_\odot$ at 90\% credibility. Moreover, because the total mass of the system is better constrained than the individual masses, the population prior on $m_2$ automatically increases the inferred $m_1$ to sit \emph{above} the gap (39\% for $m_1 > 120\,M_\odot$, or 25\% probability for $m_1>130\,M_\odot$). As long as the prior odds for a double-mass-gap BBH are smaller than $\sim 1:15$, it is more likely that GW190521 straddles the pair-instability gap. We argue that GW190521 may be the first example of a straddling binary black hole, composed of a conventional stellar mass BH and a BH from the ``far side' of the PISN mass gap.

astro-ph.HE

Constraints from gravitational wave detections of binary black hole mergers on the $^{12}\rm{C}\left(α,γ\right)^{16}\!\rm{O}$ rate

Gravitational wave detections are starting to allow us to probe the physical processes in the evolution of very massive stars through the imprints they leave on their final remnants. Stellar evolution theory predicts the existence of a gap in the black hole mass distribution at high mass due to the effects of pair-instability. Previously, we showed that the location of the gap is robust against model uncertainties, but it does depend sensitively on the uncertain $^{12}\rm{C}\left(α,γ\right)^{16}\!\rm{O}$ rate. This rate is of great astrophysical significance and governs the production of oxygen at the expense of carbon. We use the open source MESA stellar evolution code to evolve massive helium stars to probe the location of the mass gap. We find that the maximum black hole mass below the gap varies between $40\rm{M}_\odot$ to $90\rm{M}_\odot$, depending on the strength of the uncertain $^{12}\rm{C}\left(α,γ\right)^{16}\!\rm{O}$ reaction rate. With the first ten gravitational-wave detections of black holes, we constrain the astrophysical S-factor for $^{12}\rm{C}\left(α,γ\right)^{16}\!\rm{O}$, at $300\rm{keV}$, to $S_{300}>175\rm{\,keV\, barns}$ at 68% confidence. With $\mathcal{O}(50)$ detected binary black hole mergers, we expect to constrain the S-factor to within $\pm10$-$30\rm{\,keV\, barns}$. We also highlight a role for independent constraints from electromagnetic transient surveys. The unambiguous detection of pulsational pair instability supernovae would imply that $S_{300}>79\rm{\,keV\, barns}$. Degeneracies with other model uncertainties need to be investigated further, but probing nuclear stellar astrophysics poses a promising science case for the future gravitational wave detectors.

astro-ph.HE

Does Matter Matter? Using the mass distribution to distinguish neutron stars and black holes

Gravitational-wave detectors have opened a new window through which we can observe black holes (BHs) and neutron stars (NSs). Analyzing the 11 detections from LIGO/Virgo's first gravitational-wave catalog, GWTC-1, we investigate whether the power-law fit to the BH mass spectrum can also accommodate the binary neutron star (BNS) event GW170817, or whether we require an additional feature, such as a mass gap, in between the NS and BH populations. We find that with respect to the power-law fit to binary black hole (BBH) masses, GW170817 is an outlier at the 0.13\% level, suggesting a distinction between NS and BH masses. A single power-law fit across the entire mass range is in mild tension with: (a) the detection of one source in the BNS mass range ($\sim 1$--$2.5 \,M_\odot$), (b) the absence of detections in the "mass-gap" range ($\sim 2.5$--$5 \,M_\odot$), and (c) the detection of 10 sources in the BBH mass range ($\gtrsim 5 \,M_\odot$). Instead, the data favor models with a feature between NS and BH masses, including a mass gap (Bayes factor of 4.6) and a break in the power law, with a steeper slope at NS masses compared to BH masses (91\% credibility). We estimate the merger rates of compact binaries based on our fit to the global mass distribution, finding $\mathcal{R}_\mathrm{BNS} = 871^{+3015}_{-805} \ \mathrm{Gpc}^{-3} \ \mathrm{yr}^{-1}$ and $\mathcal{R}_\mathrm{BBH} = 47.5^{+57.9}_{-28.8} \ \mathrm{Gpc}^{-3} \ \mathrm{yr}^{-1}$. We conclude that, even in the absence of any prior knowledge of the difference between NSs and BHs, the gravitational-wave data alone already suggest two distinct populations of compact objects.

astro-ph.HE

Cosmological Inference using Gravitational Wave Standard Sirens: A Mock Data Challenge

The observation of binary neutron star merger GW170817, along with its optical counterpart, provided the first constraint on the Hubble constant $H_0$ using gravitational wave standard sirens. When no counterpart is identified, a galaxy catalog can be used to provide the necessary redshift information. However, the true host might not be contained in a catalog which is not complete out to the limit of gravitational-wave detectability. These electromagnetic and gravitational-wave selection effects must be accounted for. We describe and implement a method to estimate $H_0$ using both the counterpart and the galaxy catalog standard siren methods. We perform a series of mock data analyses using binary neutron star mergers to confirm our ability to recover an unbiased estimate of $H_0$. Our simulations used a simplified universe with no redshift uncertainties or galaxy clustering, but with different magnitude-limited catalogs and assumed host galaxy properties, to test our treatment of both selection effects. We explore how the incompleteness of catalogs affects the final measurement of $H_0$, as well as the effect of weighting each galaxy's likelihood of being a host by its luminosity. In our most realistic simulation, where the simulated catalog is about three times denser than the density of galaxies in the local universe, we find that a 4.4\% measurement precision can be reached using galaxy catalogs with 50\% completeness and $\sim 250$ binary neutron star detections with sensitivity similar to that of Advanced LIGO's second observing run.

gr-qc

Shouts and Murmurs: Combining Individual Gravitational-Wave Sources with the Stochastic Background to Measure the History of Binary Black Hole Mergers

One of the goals of gravitational-wave astronomy is to quantify the evolution of the compact binary merger rate with redshift. The redshift distribution of black hole mergers would offer considerable information about their evolutionary history, including their progenitor formation rate, the dependence of black hole formation on stellar metallicity, and the time delay distribution between formation and merger. Efforts to measure the binary redshift distribution are currently limited, however, by the detection range of existing instruments, which can individually resolve compact binary merger events only out to $z\lesssim1$. We present a novel strategy with which to measure the redshift distribution of binary black hole mergers well beyond the detection range of current instruments. By synthesizing direct detections of individually resolved mergers with \textit{indirect} searches for the stochastic gravitational-wave background due to unresolved distant sources, we can glean information about the peak redshift, $z_p$, at which the binary black hole merger rate attains its maximum, even when this redshift is beyond the detection horizon. Using data from Advanced LIGO and Virgo's first and second observing runs, we employ this strategy to place joint constraints on $z_p$ and the slope $α$ with which the binary merger rate increases at low redshifts, ruling out merger rates that grow faster than $α\gtrsim 7$ and peak beyond $z_p \gtrsim 1.5$. Looking ahead, we project that approximately one year of observation with design-sensitivity Advanced LIGO will further break remaining degeneracies, enabling a direct measurement of the peak redshift of the binary black hole merger history.

astro-ph.HE

Picky Partners: The Pairing of Component Masses in Binary Black Hole Mergers

We examine the relationship between individual black hole (BH) masses in merging binary black hole (BBH) systems. Analyzing the ten BBH detections from LIGO/Virgo's first two observing runs, we find that the masses of the component BHs comprising each binary are unlikely to be randomly drawn from the same underlying distribution. Instead, the two BHs of a given binary prefer to be of comparable mass. We show that it is $\sim 5$ times more likely that the component BHs in a given binary are always equal (to within 5\%) than that they are randomly paired. If we assume that the probability of a merger between two BHs scales with the mass ratio $q$ as $q^β$, so that $β=0$ corresponds to random pairings, we find $β>0$ is favored at credibility 0.987. By modeling the mass distribution, we find that the median mass ratio is $q_{50\%} = 0.91^{+0.05}_{-0.17}$ at 90\% credibility. While the pairing between BHs depends on their mass ratio, we find no evidence that it depends on the total mass of the system: it is $\sim 6$ times more likely that the pairing depends purely on the mass ratio than on the total mass. We predict that 99\% of BBHs detected by LIGO/Virgo will have mass ratios $q > 0.5$. We conclude that merging black holes do not form random pairings; instead they are selective about their partners, preferring to mate with black holes of a similar mass. The details of these selective pairings provide insight into the underlying formation channels of merging binaries.

astro-ph.HE

The binary-host connection: astrophysics of gravitational wave binaries from their host galaxy properties

Gravitational waves produced from the merger of binary neutron stars (BNSs) are accompanied by electromagnetic counterparts, making it possible to identify the associated host galaxy. We explore how properties of the host galaxies relate to the astrophysical processes leading to the mergers. It is thought that the BNS merger rate within a galaxy at a given epoch depends primarily on the galaxy's star-formation history as well as the underlying merger time-delay distribution of the binary systems. The stellar history of a galaxy, meanwhile, depends on the cosmological evolution of the galaxy through time, and is tied to the growth of structure in the Universe. We study the hosts of BNS mergers in the context of structure formation by populating the Universe Machine simulations with gravitational-wave events~ according to a simple time-delay model. We find that different time-delay distributions predict different properties of the associated host galaxies, including the distributions of stellar mass, star-formation rate, halo mass, and local and large-scale clustering of hosts. BNSs that merge today with short delay times prefer to be in hosts that have high star-formation rates, while those with long delay times live in dense regions within massive halos that have low star formation. We show that with ${\mathcal O}(10)$ events from current gravitational-wave detector networks, it is possible to make preliminary distinctions between formation channels which trace stellar mass, halo mass, or star-formation rate. We also find that strategies to follow up gravitational-wave events with electromagnetic telescopes can be significantly optimized using the clustering properties of their hosts.

astro-ph.GA