arXiv subjects

Maya Fishbach

Publications and source records attributed to Maya Fishbach.

64 records · Page 4Linked to original sources

arXiv2019

Counting on Short Gamma-Ray Bursts: Gravitational-Wave Constraints of Jet Geometry

The detection of GW170817 in gravitational waves and gamma rays revealed that short gamma-ray bursts are associated with the merger of neutron-stars. Gamma rays are thought to result from the formation of collimated jets, but the details of this process continue to elude us. One fundamental observable is the emission profile of the jet as a function of viewing angle. We present two methods to measure the effective angular width, $θ_B$, of short gamma-ray burst (sGRB) jets using gravitational wave and gamma-ray data, assuming all sGRBs have the same angular dependence for their luminosities. The first is a counting experiment, where we combine the known detection thresholds of the LIGO/Virgo and Fermi Gamma Ray Burst Monitor detectors to infer parameters of systems that are detected in gravitational waves. This method requires minimal knowledge about each event, beyond whether or not they were detected in gamma-rays. The second method uses additional information from the gravitational-wave and electromagnetic data to estimate parameters of the source, and thereby improve constraints on jet properties. Applying our methods to GW170817, we find only weak constraints on the sGRB luminosity profile, with statistical uncertainty dominating differences between models. We also analyze simulated events from future observing runs, and find that with 5 and 100 BNS detections, the counting method constrains the relative uncertainty in $θ_B$ to within 51% and 12%, respectively. Incorporating gravitational-wave parameter estimation would further tighten these constraints to 43% and 9.6%. In the limit of many detections, incorporating parameter estimation achieves only marginal improvements; we conclude that the majority of the information about jet structure comes from the relative sensitivities of gravitational-wave and gamma-ray detectors as encoded in simple counting experiments.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2019

Enabling real-time multi-messenger astrophysics discoveries with deep learning

Multi-messenger astrophysics is a fast-growing, interdisciplinary field that combines data, which vary in volume and speed of data processing, from many different instruments that probe the Universe using different cosmic messengers: electromagnetic waves, cosmic rays, gravitational waves and neutrinos. In this Expert Recommendation, we review the key challenges of real-time observations of gravitational wave sources and their electromagnetic and astroparticle counterparts, and make a number of recommendations to maximize their potential for scientific discovery. These recommendations refer to the design of scalable and computationally efficient machine learning algorithms; the cyber-infrastructure to numerically simulate astrophysical sources, and to process and interpret multi-messenger astrophysics data; the management of gravitational wave detections to trigger real-time alerts for electromagnetic and astroparticle follow-ups; a vision to harness future developments of machine learning and cyber-infrastructure resources to cope with the big-data requirements; and the need to build a community of experts to realize the goals of multi-messenger astrophysics.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2019

The Most Massive Binary Black Hole Detections and the Identification of Population Outliers

Advanced LIGO and Virgo detected ten binary black holes (BBHs) in their first two observing runs (O1 and O2). Analysis of these events found strong evidence for a dearth of BBHs with component masses greater than $\sim45 \ M_\odot$, as would be expected from a pair-instability mass gap. Meanwhile, a standalone analysis of the merger GW170729 found its primary mass $m_1 = {51.2^{+16.2}_{-11.0} \ M_\odot}$, with the majority of its posterior support at $m_1 > 45 \ M_\odot$. Although this appears to be in contradiction with the existence of a limit at $\sim45\ M_\odot$, we argue that individual events cannot be evaluated without reference to the entire population. When GW170729 is analyzed jointly with the rest of the detections, as part of a full hierarchical population analysis, its inferred primary mass tightens considerably, to $m_1 = {38.9^{+7.3}_{-4.5} \ M_\odot}$. For a large sample of events in the presence of noise, apparent outliers in the detected distribution are inevitable, even if the underlying population forbids outliers. We discuss methods of distinguishing between statistical fluctuations and population outliers using posterior predictive tests. Applying these tests to the primary mass distribution in O1 and O2, we find that the ten detections are consistent with even the simplest power-law plus maximum-mass model considered by the LVC. This supports the claim that GW170729 is not a population outlier. We also provide non-parametric constraints on the rate of high-mass mergers and conservatively bound the rate of mergers with $m_1 > 45 \ M_\odot$ at $2.8^{+5.4}_{-2.0}\%$ of the total merger rate. After 100 detections like those of O1 and O2 from a population with a maximum primary mass of $45 \, M_\odot$, it would be common for the most massive system to have an observed maximum-likelihood mass $m_1 \gtrsim 70 \, M_\odot$.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2019

A Future Percent-Level Measurement of the Hubble Expansion at Redshift 0.8 With Advanced LIGO

Simultaneous measurements of distance and redshift can be used to constrain the expansion history of the universe and associated cosmological parameters. Merging binary black hole (BBH) systems are standard sirens---their gravitational waveform provides direct information about the luminosity distance to the source. Because gravity is scale-free, there is a perfect degeneracy between the source masses and redshift; some non-gravitational information is necessary to break the degeneracy and determine the redshift of the source. Here we suggest that the pair instability supernova (PISN) process, thought to be the source of the observed upper-limit on the black hole (BH) mass in merging BBH systems at $\sim 45 \, M_\odot$, imprints a mass scale in the population of BBH mergers and permits a measurement of the redshift-luminosity-distance relation with these sources. We simulate five years of BBH detections in the Advanced LIGO and Virgo detectors with realistic assumptions about the BBH merger rate, a mass distribution incorporating a smooth PISN cutoff, and measurement uncertainty. We show that after one year of operation at design sensitivity (circa 2021) the BBH population can constrain $H(z)$ to $6.1\%$ at a pivot redshift $z \simeq 0.8$. After five years (circa 2025) the constraint improves to $2.9\%$. This measurement relies only on general relativity and the presence of a cutoff mass scale that is approximately fixed or calibrated across cosmic time; it is independent of any distance ladder or cosmological model. Observations by future ``third-generation'' gravitational wave detectors, which can see BBH mergers throughout the universe, would permit sub-percent cosmographical measurements to $z \gtrsim 4$ within one month of observation.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2019

Standard sirens with a running Planck mass

We consider the effect of a time-varying Planck mass on the propagation of gravitational waves (GWs). A running Planck mass arises naturally in several modified gravity theories, and here we focus on those that carry an additional dark energy field responsible for the late-time accelerated expansion of the universe, yet--like general relativity (GR)--propagate only two GW polarizations, both traveling at the speed of light. Because a time-varying Planck mass affects the amplitude of the GWs and therefore the inferred distance to the source, standard siren measurements of $H_0$ are degenerate with the parameter $c_M$ characterizing the time-varying Planck mass, where $c_M=0$ corresponds to GR with a constant Planck mass. The effect of non-zero $c_M$ will have a noticeable impact on GWs emitted by binary neutron stars (BNSs) at the sensitivities and distances observable by ground-based GW detectors such as advanced LIGO and A+, implying that standard siren measurements can provide joint constraints on $H_0$ and $c_M$. Assuming a $Λ$CDM evolution of the universe and taking Planck's measurement of $H_0$ as a prior, we find that GW170817 constrains $c_M = -9^{+21}_{-28}$ ($68.3\%$ credibility). We also discuss forecasts, finding that if we assume $H_0$ is known independently, then 100 BNS events detected by advanced LIGO can constrain $c_M$ to within $\pm0.9$. This is comparable to the current best constraints from cosmology. Similarly, for 100 LIGO A+ BNS detections, it is possible to constrain $c_M$ to $\pm0.5$. When analyzing joint $H_0$ and $c_M$ constraints we find that $\sim 400$ LIGO A+ events are needed to constrain $H_0$ to $1\%$ accuracy. Finally, we discuss the possibility of a nonzero value of $c_M$ biasing standard siren $H_0$ measurements from 100 LIGO A+ detections, and find that $c_M=+1.35$ could bias $H_0$ by 3-4$σ$ too low if we incorrectly assume $c_M=0$.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2018

Does the Black Hole Merger Rate Evolve with Redshift?

We explore the ability of gravitational-wave detectors to extract the redshift distribution of binary black hole (BBH) mergers. The evolution of the merger rate across redshifts $0 < z \lesssim 1$ is directly tied to the formation and evolutionary processes, providing insight regarding the progenitor formation rate together with the distribution of time delays between formation and merger. Because the limiting distance to which BBHs are detected depends on the masses of the binary, the redshift distribution of detected binaries depends on their underlying mass distribution. We therefore consider the mass and redshift distributions simultaneously, and fit the merger rate density, ${dN}/{dm_1\,dm_2\,dz}$. Our constraints on the mass distribution agree with previously published results, including evidence for an upper mass cutoff at $\sim 40 \ M_\odot$. Additionally, we show that the current set of six BBH detections are consistent with a merger rate density that is uniform in comoving volume. Although our constraints on the redshift distribution are not yet tight enough to distinguish between BBH formation channels, we show that it will be possible to distinguish between different astrophysically motivated models of the merger rate evolution with $\sim 100$--$300$ LIGO-Virgo detections (to be expected within 2--5 years). Specifically, we will be able to infer whether the formation rate peaks at higher or lower redshifts than the star formation rate, or the typical time delay between formation and merger. Meanwhile, with $\sim 100$ detections, the inferred redshift distribution will place constraints on more exotic scenarios such as modified gravity.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2018

Limits on the number of spacetime dimensions from GW170817

The observation of GW170817 in both gravitational and electromagnetic waves provides a number of unique tests of general relativity. One question we can answer with this event is: Do large-wavelength gravitational waves and short-frequency photons experience the same number of spacetime dimensions? In models that include additional non-compact spacetime dimensions, as the gravitational waves propagate, they "leak" into the extra dimensions, leading to a reduction in the amplitude of the observed gravitational waves, and a commensurate systematic error in the inferred distance to the gravitational wave source. Electromagnetic waves would remain unaffected. We compare the inferred distance to GW170817 from the observation of gravitational waves, $d_L^\mathrm{GW}$, with the inferred distance to the electromagnetic counterpart NGC 4993, $d_L^\mathrm{EM}$. We constrain $d_L^\mathrm{GW} = (d_L^\mathrm{EM}/\mathrm{Mpc})^\mathrmγ$ with $γ= 1.01^{+0.04}_{-0.05}$ (for the SHoES value of $H_0$) or $γ= 0.99^{+0.03}_{-0.05}$ (for the Planck value of $H_0$), where all values are MAP and minimal 68% credible intervals. These constraints imply that gravitational waves propagate in $D=3+1$ spacetime dimensions, as expected in general relativity. In particular, we find that $D = 4.02^{+0.07}_{-0.10}$ (SHoES) and $D = 3.98^{+0.07}_{-0.09}$ (Planck). Furthermore, we place limits on the screening scale for theories with $D>4$ spacetime dimensions, finding that the screening scale must be greater than $\sim 20$ Mpc. We also place a lower limit on the lifetime of the graviton of $t > 4.50 \times 10^8$ yr.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2018

A 2 per cent Hubble constant measurement from standard sirens within 5 years

Gravitational wave coalescence events provide an entirely new way to determine the Hubble constant, with the absolute distance calibration provided by the theory of general relativity. This standard siren method was utilized to measure the Hubble constant using LIGO-Virgo's detection of the binary neutron-star merger GW170817, as well as optical identifications of the host galaxy, NGC 4993. The novel and independent measurement is of particular interest given the existing tension between the value of the Hubble constant determined using Type Ia supernovae via the local distance ladder ($73.24 \pm 1.74$) and that from Cosmic Microwave Background observations ($66.93 \pm 0.62$) by $\sim 3$ sigma. Local distance ladder observations may achieve a precision of $1\%$ within 5 years, but at present there are no indications that further observations will substantially reduce the existing discrepancies. In addition to clarifying the discrepancy between existing low and high-redshift measurements, a precision measurement of the Hubble constant is of crucial value in elucidating the nature of the dark energy. Here we show that LIGO and Virgo can be expected to constrain the Hubble constant to a precision of $\sim2\%$ within 5 years and $\sim1\%$ within a decade.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2017

Where are LIGO's Big Black Holes?

In LIGO's O1 and O2 observational runs, the detectors were sensitive to stellar mass binary black hole coalescences with component masses up to $100\,M_\odot$, with binaries with primary masses above $40\,M_\odot$ representing $\gtrsim90\%$ of the total accessible sensitive volume. Nonetheless, of the 5.9 detections (GW150914, LVT151012, GW151226, GW170104, GW170608, GW170814) reported by LIGO-Virgo, the most massive binary detected was GW150914 with a primary component mass of $\sim36\,M_\odot$, far below the detection mass limit. Furthermore, there are theoretical arguments in favor of an upper mass gap, predicting an absence of black holes in the mass range $50\lesssim M\lesssim135\,M_\odot$. We argue that the absence of detected binary systems with component masses heavier than $\sim40\,M_\odot$ may be preliminary evidence for this upper mass gap. By allowing for the presence of a mass gap, we find weaker constraints on the shape of the underlying mass distribution of binary black holes. We fit a power-law distribution with an upper mass cutoff to real and simulated BBH mass measurements, finding that the first 3.9 BBHs favor shallow power law slopes $α\lesssim 3$ and an upper mass cutoff $M_\mathrm{max} \sim 40\,M_\odot$. This inferred distribution is entirely consistent with the two recently reported detections, GW170608 and GW170814. We show that with $\sim10$ additional LIGO-Virgo BBH detections, fitting the BH mass distribution will provide strong evidence for an upper mass gap if one exists.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2017

Are LIGO's Black Holes Made From Smaller Black Holes?

One proposed formation channel for stellar mass black holes (BHs) is through hierarchical mergers of smaller BHs. Repeated mergers between comparable mass BHs leave an imprint on the spin of the resulting BH, since the final BH spin is largely determined by the orbital angular momentum of the binary. We find that for stellar mass BHs forming hierarchically the distribution of spin magnitudes is universal, with a peak at $a \sim 0.7$ and little support below $a \sim 0.5$. We show that the spin distribution is robust against changes to the mass ratio of the merging binaries, the initial spin distribution of the first generation of BHs, and the number of merger generations. While we assume an isotropic distribution of initial spin directions, spins that are preferentially aligned or antialigned do not qualitatively change our results. We also consider a "cluster catastrophe" model for BH formation in which we allow for mergers of arbitrary mass ratios and show that this scenario predicts a unique spin distribution that is similar to the universal distribution derived for major majors. We explore the ability of spin measurements from ground-based gravitational-wave (GW) detectors to constrain hierarchical merger scenarios. We apply a hierarchical Bayesian mixture model to mock GW data and argue that the fraction of BHs that formed through hierarchical mergers will be constrained with $\mathcal{O}(100)$ LIGO binary black hole detections, while with $\mathcal{O}(10)$ detections we could falsify a model in which all component BHs form hierarchically.

astro-ph.HE↗