arXiv subjects

Michael Assaf

Publications and source records attributed to Michael Assaf.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2023

Heterogeneity can markedly increase final outbreak size in the SIR model of epidemics

We study the SIR model of epidemics on positively correlated heterogeneous networks with population variability, and explore the dependence of the final outbreak size on the network heterogeneity strength and basic reproduction number $R_0$ -- the ratio between the infection and recovery rates per individual. We reveal a critical value $R_0^c$, above which the maximal outbreak size is obtained at zero heterogeneity, but below which, the maximum is obtained at finite heterogeneity strength. This second-order phase transition, universal for all network distributions with finite standardized moments indicates that, network heterogeneity can greatly increase the final outbreak size. We also show that this effect can be enhanced by adding population heterogeneity, in the form of varying inter-individual susceptibility and infectiousness. Notably, our results provide key insight as to the predictability of the well-mixed SIR model for the final outbreak size, in realistic scenarios.

cond-mat.stat-mech↗

arXiv2022

Evolutionary Dynamics in a Varying Environment: Continuous versus Discrete Noise

Environmental variations can significantly influence how populations compete for resources, and hence shape their evolution. Here, we study population dynamics subject to a fluctuating environment modeled by a varying carrying capacity changing continuously in time according to either binary random switches, or by being driven by a noise of continuous range. We consider a prototypical example of two competing strains, one growing slightly slower than the other, and consider also the scenario where the slow strain is a public goods producer. By systematically comparing the effect of binary- versus continuously-varying environment, we study how different noise statistics (mean, variance) influence the population size and fixation properties. We show that the slow strain fixation probability can be greatly enhanced for a continuously-varying environment compared to binary switches, even when the first two moments of the carrying capacity coincide.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2022

SIS model of disease extinction on heterogeneous directed population networks

Understanding the spread of diseases through complex networks is of great interest where realistic, heterogeneous contact patterns play a crucial role in the spread. Most works have focused on mean-field behavior -- quantifying how contact patterns affect the emergence and stability of (meta)stable endemic states in networks. On the other hand, much less is known about longer time scale dynamics, such as disease extinction, whereby inherent process stochasticity and contact heterogeneity interact to produce large fluctuations that result in the spontaneous clearance of infection. Here we show that heterogeneity in both susceptibility and infectiousness (incoming and outgoing degree, respectively) has a non-trivial effect on extinction in directed contact networks, both speeding-up and slowing-down extinction rates depending on the relative proportion of such edges in a network, and on whether the heterogeneities in the incoming and outgoing degrees are correlated or anticorrelated. In particular, we show that weak anticorrelated heterogeneity can increase the disease stability, whereas strong heterogeneity gives rise to markedly different results for correlated and anticorrelated heterogeneous networks. All analytical results are corroborated through various numerical schemes including network Monte-Carlo simulations.

cond-mat.stat-mech↗

arXiv2022

Fluctuations and first-passage properties of systems of Brownian particles with reset

We study stationary fluctuations in two models involving $N$ Brownian particles undergoing stochastic resetting to the origin in 1d. We start with the basic reset model where the particles reset independently (model A). Then we introduce nonlocal interparticle correlations by postulating that only the particle farthest from the origin is reset (model B). At long times both models approach nonequilibrium steady states. In the limit of $N\to \infty$, the steady-state particle density in model A has an infinite support, whereas in model B it has a compact support. A finite system radius, which scales at large $N$ as $\ln N$, appears in model A when $N$ is finite. In both models we study stationary fluctuations of the center of mass of the system and of the system's radius due to the random character of the Brownian motion and of the resetting events. In model A we determine exact distributions of these two quantities. The variance of the center of mass for both models scales as $1/N$. The variance of the radius is independent of $N$ in model A and exhibits an unusual scaling $(\ln N)/N$ in model B. The latter scaling is intimately related to the $1/f$ noise in the radius autocorrelations. Finally, we evaluate the mean first-passage time (MFPT) to a distant target in model A, model B, and the BBM. For model A we obtain an exact asymptotic expression for the MFPT which scales as $1/N$. For model B, and for the "Brownian bees" model, we propose a sharp upper bound for the MFPT. The bound assumes an ``evaporation" scenario, where the first passage requires multiple attempts of a single particle, which breaks away from the rest of the particles, to reach the target. The resulting MFPT for model B and the Brownian bees model scales exponentially with $\sqrt{N}$. We verify this bound by performing highly efficient weighted-ensemble simulations of the first passage in model B.

cond-mat.stat-mech↗

arXiv2022

Unravelling the origins of anomalous diffusion: from molecules to migrating storks

Anomalous diffusion or, more generally, anomalous transport, with nonlinear dependence of the mean-squared displacement on the measurement time, is ubiquitous in nature. It has been observed in processes ranging from microscopic movement of molecules to macroscopic, large-scale paths of migrating birds. Using data from multiple empirical systems, spanning 12 orders of magnitude in length and 8 orders of magnitude in time, we employ a method to detect the individual underlying origins of anomalous diffusion and transport in the data. This method decomposes anomalous transport into three primary effects: long-range correlations ("Joseph effect"), fat-tailed probability density of increments ("Noah effect"), and non-stationarity ("Moses effect"). We show that such a decomposition of real-life data allows to infer nontrivial behavioral predictions, and to resolve open questions in the fields of single particle tracking in living cells and movement ecology.

physics.data-an↗

arXiv2022

Ergodicity breaking in area-restricted search of avian predators

Quantifying and comparing patterns of dynamical ecological systems require averaging over measurable quantities. For example, to infer variation in movement and behavior, metrics such as step length and velocity are averaged over large ensembles. Yet, in nonergodic systems such averaging is inconsistent; thus, identifying ergodicity breaking is essential in ecology. Using rich high-resolution movement datasets ($>\! 7 \times 10^7$ localizations) from 70 individuals and continuous-time random walk modeling, we find subdiffusive behavior and ergodicity breaking in the localized movement of three species of avian predators. Small-scale, within-patch movement was found to be qualitatively different, not inferrable and separated from large-scale inter-patch movement. Local search is characterized by long power-law-distributed waiting times with diverging mean, giving rise to ergodicity breaking in the form of considerable variability uniquely observed at this scale. This implies that wild animal movement is scale specific with no typical waiting time at the local scale.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2022

Classification of anomalous diffusion in animal movement data using power spectral analysis

The field of movement ecology has seen a rapid increase in high-resolution data in recent years, leading to the development of numerous statistical and numerical methods to analyse relocation trajectories. Data are often collected at the level of the individual and for long periods that may encompass a range of behaviours. Here, we use the power spectral density (PSD) to characterise the random movement patterns of a black-winged kite (Elanus caeruleus) and a white stork (Ciconia ciconia). The tracks are first segmented and clustered into different behaviours (movement modes), and for each mode we measure the PSD and the ageing properties of the process. For the foraging kite we find $1/f$ noise, previously reported in ecological systems mainly in the context of population dynamics, but not for movement data. We further suggest plausible models for each of the behavioural modes by comparing both the measured PSD exponents and the distribution of the single-trajectory PSD to known theoretical results and simulations.

cond-mat.stat-mech↗

arXiv2022

Extreme outbreak dynamics in epidemic models

Motivated by recent epidemic outbreaks, including those of COVID-19, we solve the canonical problem of calculating the dynamics and likelihood of extensive outbreaks in a population within a large class of stochastic epidemic models with demographic noise, including the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model and its general extensions. In the limit of large populations, we compute the probability distribution for all extensive outbreaks, including those that entail unusually large or small (extreme) proportions of the population infected. Our approach reveals that, unlike other well-known examples of rare events occurring in discrete-state stochastic systems, the statistics of extreme outbreaks emanate from a full continuum of Hamiltonian paths, each satisfying unique boundary conditions with a conserved probability flux.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2021

Phase transition in non-Markovian animal exploration model with preferential returns

We study a non-Markovian and nonstationary model of animal mobility incorporating both exploration and memory in the form of preferential returns. We derive exact results for the probability of visiting a given number of sites and develop a practical WKB approximation to treat the nonstationary problem. We further show that this model adequately describes empirical movement data of Egyptian fruit bats (Rousettus aegyptiacus) when accounting for inter-individual variation in the population. Finally, we study the probability of visiting any site a given number of times and derive the corresponding mean-field equation. Here, we find a remarkable phase transition occurring at preferential returns which scale linearly with past visits. Following empirical evidence, we suggest that this phase transition reflects a trade-off between extensive and intensive foraging modes.

cond-mat.stat-mech↗

arXiv2021

Reconstructing an epigenetic landscape using a genetic `pulling' approach

Cells use genetic switches to shift between alternate stable gene expression states, e.g., to adapt to new environments or to follow a developmental pathway. Conceptually, these stable phenotypes can be considered as attractive states on an epigenetic landscape with phenotypic changes being transitions between states. Measuring these transitions is challenging because they are both very rare in the absence of appropriate signals and very fast. As such, it has proven difficult to experimentally map the epigenetic landscapes that are widely believed to underly developmental networks. Here, we introduce a new nonequilibrium perturbation method to help reconstruct a regulatory network's epigenetic landscape. We derive the mathematical theory needed and then use the method on simulated data to reconstruct the landscapes. Our results show that with a relatively small number of perturbation experiments it is possible to recover an accurate representation of the true epigenetic landscape. We propose that our theory provides a general method by which epigenetic landscapes can be studied. Finally, our theory suggests that the total perturbation impulse required to induce a switch between metastable states is a fundamental quantity in developmental dynamics.

q-bio.MN↗

arXiv2020

Population Dynamics in a Changing Environment: Random versus Periodic Switching

Environmental changes greatly influence the evolution of populations. Here, we study the dynamics of a population of two strains, one growing slightly faster than the other, competing for resources in a time-varying binary environment modeled by a carrying capacity switching either randomly or periodically between states of abundance and scarcity. The population dynamics is characterized by demographic noise (birth and death events) coupled to a varying environment. We elucidate the similarities and differences of the evolution subject to a stochastically- and periodically-varying environment. Importantly, the population size distribution is generally found to be broader under intermediate and fast random switching than under periodic variations, which results in markedly different asymptotic behaviors between the fixation probability of random and periodic switching. We also determine the detailed conditions under which the fixation probability of the slow strain is maximal.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2019

Theory of electric field breakdown nucleation due to mobile dislocations

A model is described, in which electrical breakdown in high-voltage systems is caused by stochastic fluctuations of the mobile dislocation population in the cathode. In this model, the mobile dislocation density normally fluctuates, with a finite probability to undergo a critical transition due to the effects of the external field. It is suggested that once such a transition occurs, the mobile dislocation density will increase deterministically, leading to electrical breakdown. Model parametrization is achieved via microscopic analysis of OFHC Cu cathode samples from the CERN CLIC project, allowing the creation and depletion rates of mobile dislocations to be estimated as a function of the initial physical condition of the material and the applied electric field. We find analytical expressions for the mean breakdown time and quasistationary probability distribution of the mobile dislocation density, and verify these results by using a Gillespie algorithm. A least-squares algorithm is used to fit these results with available experimental data of the dependence of the breakdown rate on the applied strength of the electric field and on temperature. The effects of the variation of some of the assumptions of the physical model are considered, and a number of additional experiments to validate the model are proposed, which include examining the effects of the temperature and pulse length, as well as of a time-dependent electric field, on the breakdown rate. Finally, applications of the model are discussed, including the usage of the quasistatic probability distribution to predict breakdowns, and applying the predictions of the model to improve the conditioning process of the cathode material.

physics.acc-ph↗

arXiv2019

Extinction risk of a Metapopulation under the Allee Effect

We study the extinction risk of a fragmented population residing on a network of patches coupled by migration, where the local patch dynamics include the Allee effect. We show that mixing between patches dramatically influences the population's viability. Slow migration is shown to always increase the population's global extinction risk compared to the isolated case. At fast migration, we demonstrate that synchrony between patches minimizes the population's extinction risk. Moreover, we discover a critical migration rate that maximizes the extinction risk of the population, and identify an early-warning signal when approaching this state. Our theoretical results are confirmed via the highly-efficient weighted ensemble method. Notably, our analysis can also be applied to studying switching in gene regulatory networks with multiple transcriptional states.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2019

Population switching under a time-varying environment

We examine the switching dynamics of a stochastic population subjected to a deterministically time-varying environment. Our approach is demonstrated in the realm of ecology on a problem of population establishment. Here, by assuming a constant immigration pressure along with a strong Allee effect, at the deterministic level one obtains a critical population size beyond which the system experiences establishment. Notably the latter has been shown to be strongly influenced by the interplay between demographic and environmental noise. We consider two prototypical examples for environmental variations: a temporary environmental change, and a periodically-varying environment. By employing a semi-classical approximation we compute, within exponential accuracy, the change in the establishment probability and mean establishment time of the population, due to the environmental variability. Our analytical results are verified by using a modified Gillespie algorithm which accounts for explicitly time-dependent reaction rates. Finally, our theoretical approach can also be useful in studying switching dynamics in gene regulatory networks under extrinsic variations.

cond-mat.stat-mech↗

arXiv2019

Time Distribution for Persistent Viral Infection

We study the early stages of viral infection, and the distribution of times to obtain a persistent infection. The virus population proliferates by entering and reproducing inside a target cell until a sufficient number of new virus particles are released via a burst, with a given burst size distribution, which results in the death of the infected cell. Starting with a 2D model describing the joint dynamics of the virus and infected cell populations, we analyze the corresponding master equation using the probability generating function formalism. Exploiting time-scale separation between the virus and infected cell dynamics, the 2D model can be cast into an effective 1D model. To this end, we solve the 1D model analytically for a particular choice of burst size distribution. In the general case, we solve the model numerically by performing extensive Monte-Carlo simulations, and demonstrate the equivalence between the 2D and 1D models by measuring the Kullback-Leibler divergence between the corresponding distributions. Importantly, we find that the distribution of infection times is highly skewed with a "fat" exponential right tail. This indicates that there is non-negligible portion of individuals with an infection time, significantly longer than the mean, which may have implications on when HIV tests should be performed.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2019

Degree Dispersion Increases the Rate of Rare Events in Population Networks

There is great interest in predicting rare and extreme events in complex systems, and in particular, understanding the role of network topology in facilitating such events. In this work, we show that degree dispersion -- the fact that the number of local connections in networks varies broadly -- increases the probability of large, rare fluctuations in population networks generically. We perform explicit calculations for two canonical and distinct classes of rare events: network extinction and switching. When the distance to threshold is held constant, and hence stochastic effects are fairly compared among networks, we show that there is a universal, exponential increase in the rate of rare events proportional to the variance of a network's degree distribution over its mean squared.

cond-mat.stat-mech↗

arXiv2019

Demographic stochasticity and extinction in populations with Allee effect

We study simple stochastic scenarios, based on birth-and-death Markovian processes, that describe populations with Allee effect, to account for the role of demographic stochasticity. In the mean-field deterministic limit we recover well-known deterministic evolution equations widely employed in population ecology. The mean-time to extinction is in general obtained by the Wentzel-Kramers-Brillouin (WKB) approximation for populations with strong and weak Allee effects. An exact solution for the mean time to extinction can be found via a recursive equation for special cases of the stochastic dynamics. We study the conditions for the validity of the WKB solution and analyze the boundary between the weak and strong Allee effect by comparing exact solutions with numerical simulations.

cond-mat.stat-mech↗

arXiv2018

Stochastic Model of Breakdown Nucleation under Intense Electric Fields

Plastic response due to dislocation activity under intense electric fields is proposed as a source of breakdown. A model is formulated based on stochastic multiplication and arrest under the stress generated by the field. A critical transition in the dislocation population is suggested as the cause of protrusion formation leading to subsequent arcing. The model is studied using Monte Carlo simulations and theoretical analysis, yielding a simplified dependence of the breakdown rates on the electric field. These agree with experimental observations of field and temperature breakdown dependencies.

physics.plasm-ph↗