arXiv subjects

Michael Hippke

Publications and source records attributed to Michael Hippke.

50 records · Page 3Linked to original sources

arXiv2017

Deceleration of high-velocity interstellar photon sails into bound orbits at $α$ Centauri

At a distance of about 4.22 lightyears, it would take about 100,000 years for humans to visit our closest stellar neighbor Proxima Centauri using modern chemical thrusters. New technologies are now being developed that involve high-power lasers firing at 1 gram solar sails in near-Earth orbits, accelerating them to 20% the speed of light (c) within minutes. Although such an interstellar probe could reach Proxima 20 years after launch, without propellant to slow it down it would traverse the system within hours. Here we demonstrate how the stellar photon pressures of the stellar triple $α$ Cen A, B, and C (Proxima) can be used together with gravity assists to decelerate incoming solar sails from Earth. The maximum injection speed at $α$ Cen A to park a sail with a mass-to-surface ratio ($σ$) similar to graphene (7.6e-4 gram/m$^{-2}$) in orbit around Proxima is about 13,800 km/s (4.6% c), implying travel times from Earth to $α$ Cen A and B of about 95 years and another 46 years (with a residual velocity of 1280 km/s) to Proxima. The size of such a low-$σ$ sail required to carry a payload of 10 grams is about 10$^5$ m$^2$ = (316 m)$^2$. Such a sail could use solar photons instead of an expensive laser system to gain interstellar velocities at departure. Photogravitational assists allow visits of three stellar systems and an Earth-sized potentially habitable planet in one shot, promising extremely high scientific yields.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2016

A first view with GAIA on KIC 8462852 - distance estimates and a comparison to other F stars

Distance estimates from Gaia parallax and expected luminosities are compared for KIC 8462852. Gaia DR1 yields a parallax of $2.55\pm0.31$mas, that is a distance of $391.4\substack{+53.6 \\ -42.0}$pc, or $391.4\substack{+122.1 \\ -75.2}$pc including systematic uncertainty. The distance estimate based on the absolute magnitude of an F3V star and measured reddening is $\sim454\pm35$pc. Both estimates agree within $<1σ$, which only excludes some of the most extreme theorized scenarios for KIC 8462852. Future Gaia data releases will determine the distance to within 1% and thus allow for the determination a precise absolute luminosity.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2016

Predictable patterns in planetary transit timing variations and transit duration variations due to exomoons

We present new ways to identify single and multiple moons around extrasolar planets using planetary transit timing variations (TTVs) and transit duration variations (TDVs). For planets with one moon, measurements from successive transits exhibit a hitherto undescribed pattern in the TTV-TDV diagram, originating from the stroboscopic sampling of the planet's orbit around the planet-moon barycenter. This pattern is fully determined and analytically predictable after three consecutive transits. The more measurements become available, the more the TTV-TDV diagram approaches an ellipse. For planets with multiple moons in orbital mean motion resonance (MMR), like the Galilean moons, the pattern is much more complex and addressed numerically in this report. Exomoons in MMR can also form closed, predictable TTV-TDV figures if the drift of the moons' pericenters is sufficiently slow. We find that MMR exomoons produce loops in the TTV-TDV diagram and that the number of these loops is equal to the order of the MMR, or the largest integer in the MMR ratio. We use a Bayesian model and Monte Carlo simulations to test the discoverability of exomoons using TTV-TDV diagrams with current and near-future technology. In a blind test, two of us (BP, DA) successfully retrieved a large moon from simulated TTV-TDV by co-authors MH and RH, which resembled data from a known Kepler planet candidate. Single exomoons with a 10% moon-to-planet mass ratio, like to Pluto-Charon binary, can be detectable in the archival data of the Kepler primary mission. Multi-exomoon systems, however, require either larger telescopes or brighter target stars. Complementary detection methods invoking a moon's own photometric transit or its orbital sampling effect can be used for validation or falsification. A combination of TESS, CHEOPS, and PLATO data would offer a compelling opportunity for exomoon discoveries around bright stars.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2016

The Stability of F-star Brightness on Century Timescales

The century-long photometric record of the DASCH project provides a unique window into the variability of stars normally considered to be photometrically inactive. In this paper, we look for long-term trends in the brightness of F stars, with particular attention to KIC 8462852,an F3 main sequence star that has been identified as significant short-term variability according to Kepler observations. Although a simple search for variability suggests long-term dimming of a number of F stars, we find that such trends are artifacts of the 'Menzel Gap' in the DASCH data. That includes the behavior of KIC 8462852, which we believe is consistent with constant flux over the full duration of observations. We do, however, present a selection of F stars that do have significant photometric trends, even after systematics are taken into account.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2016

A statistical analysis of the accuracy of the digitized magnitudes of photometric plates on the time scale of decades with an application to the century-long light curve of KIC 8462852

We present a statistical analysis of the accuracy of the digitized magnitudes of photometric plates on the time scale of decades. In our examination of archival Johnson B photometry from the Harvard DASCH archive, we find a median RMS scatter of lightcurves of order 0.15mag over the range B~9-17 for all calibrations. Slight underlying systematics (trends or flux discontinuities) are on a level of ~<=0.2mag per century (1889-1990) for the majority of constant stars. These historic data can be unambiguously used for processes that happen on scales of magnitudes, and need to be carefully examined in cases approaching the noise floor. The characterization of these limits in photometric stability may guide future studies in their use of plate archives. We explain these limitations for the example case of KIC8462852, which has been claimed to dim by 0.16mag per century, and show that this trend cannot be considered as significant.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2016

Modeling the Orbital Sampling Effect of Extrasolar Moons

The orbital sampling effect (OSE) appears in phase-folded transit light curves of extrasolar planets with moons. Analytical OSE models have hitherto neglected stellar limb darkening and non-zero transit impact parameters and assumed that the moon is on a circular, co-planar orbit around the planet. Here, we present an analytical OSE model for eccentric moon orbits, which we implement in a numerical simulator with stellar limb darkening that allows for arbitrary transit impact parameters. We also describe and publicly release a fully numerical OSE simulator (PyOSE) that can model arbitrary inclinations of the transiting moon orbit. Both our analytical solution for the OSE and PyOSE can be used to search for exomoons in long-term stellar light curves such as those by Kepler and the upcoming PLATO mission. Our updated OSE model offers an independent method for the verification of possible future exomoon claims via transit timing variations and transit duration variations. Photometrically quiet K and M dwarf stars are particularly promising targets for an exomoon discovery using the OSE.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2015

Simple nonlinear models suggest variable star universality

Dramatically improved data from observatories like the CoRoT and Kepler spacecraft have recently facilitated nonlinear time series analysis and phenomenological modeling of variable stars, including the search for strange (aka fractal) or chaotic dynamics. We recently argued [Lindner et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 114 (2015) 054101] that the Kepler data includes "golden" stars, whose luminosities vary quasiperiodically with two frequencies nearly in the golden ratio, and whose secondary frequencies exhibit power-law scaling with exponent near -1.5, suggesting strange nonchaotic dynamics and singular spectra. Here we use a series of phenomenological models to make plausible the connection between golden stars and fractal spectra. We thereby suggest that at least some features of variable star dynamics reflect universal nonlinear phenomena common to even simple systems.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2015

A statistical search for a population of Exo-Trojans in the Kepler dataset

Trojans are small bodies in planetary Lagrangian points. In our solar system, Jupiter has the largest number of such companions. Their existence is assumed for exoplanetary systems as well, but none has been found so far. We present an analysis by super-stacking $\sim4\times10^4$ Kepler planets with a total of $\sim9\times10^5$ transits, searching for an average trojan transit dip. Our result gives an upper limit to the average Trojan transiting area (per planet) corresponding to one body of radius $<460$km at $2σ$ confidence. We find a significant Trojan-like signal in a sub-sample for planets with more (or larger) Trojans for periods $>$60 days. Our tentative results can and should be checked with improved data from future missions like PLATO2.0, and can guide planetary formation theories.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2015

Photometry's bright future: Detecting Solar System analogues with future space telescopes

Time-series transit photometry from the Kepler space telescope has allowed for the discovery of thousands of exoplanets. We explore the potential of yet improved future missions such as PLATO 2.0 in detecting solar system analogues. We use real-world solar data and end-to-end simulations to explore the stellar and instrumental noise properties. By injecting and retrieving planets, rings and moons of our own solar system, we show that the discovery of Venus- and Earth-analogues transiting G-dwarfs like our Sun is feasible at high S/N after collecting 6yrs of data, but Mars and Mercury will be difficult to detect due to stellar noise. In the best cases, Saturn's rings and Jupiter's moons will be detectable even in single transit observations. Through the high number (>1 bn) of observed stars by PLATO 2.0, it will become possible to detect thousands of single-transit events by cold gas giants, analogue to our Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus and Neptune. Our own solar system aside, we also show, through signal injection and retrieval, that PLATO 2.0-class photometry will allow for the secure detection of exomoons transiting quiet M-dwarfs. This is the first study analyzing in-depth the potential of future missions, and the ultimate limits of photometry, using realistic case examples.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2015

On the detection of Exomoons: A search in Kepler data for the orbital sampling effect and the scatter peak

Despite the discovery of thousands of exoplanets, no exomoons have been detected so far. We test a recently developed method for exomoon search, the orbital sampling effect (OSE), using the full exoplanet photometry from the Kepler Space Telescope. The OSE is applied to phase-folded transits, for which we present a framework to detect false positives, and discuss four candidates which pass several of our tests. Using numerical simulations, we inject exomoon signals into real Kepler data and retrieve them, showing that under favorable conditions, exomoons can be found with Kepler and the OSE method. In addition, we super-stack a large sample of Kepler planets to search for the average exomoon OSE and the accompanying increase in noise, the scatter peak. We find a significant OSE-like signal, which might indicate the presence of moons, for planets with 35d<P<80d, having an average dip per planet of 6+-2ppm, corresponding to a moon radius of 2120 +330 -370km for the average star radius of 1.24R_Sun in this sample.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2015

Discrete steps in dispersion measures of Fast Radio Bursts

Fast Radios Bursts (FRBs) show large dispersion measures (DMs), suggesting an extragalactic location. We analyze the DMs of the 11 known FRBs in detail and identify steps as integer multiples of half the lowest DM found, 187.5cm$^{-3}$ pc, so that DMs occur in groups centered at 375, 562, 750, 937, 1125cm$^{-3}$ pc, with errors observed <5%. We estimate the likelhood of a coincidence as 5:10,000. We speculate that this could originate from a Galaxy population of FRBs, with Milky Way DM contribution as model deviations, and an underlying generator process that produces FRBs with DMs in discrete steps. However, we find that FRBs tend to arrive at close to the full integer second, like man-made perytons. If this holds, FRBs would also be man-made. This can be verified, or refuted, with new FRBs to be detected.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2015

Strange nonchaotic stars

The unprecedented light curves of the Kepler space telescope document how the brightness of some stars pulsates at primary and secondary frequencies whose ratios are near the golden mean, the most irrational number. A nonlinear dynamical system driven by an irrational ratio of frequencies generically exhibits a strange but nonchaotic attractor. For Kepler's "golden" stars, we present evidence of the first observation of strange nonchaotic dynamics in nature outside the laboratory. This discovery could aid the classification and detailed modeling of variable stars.

nlin.CD↗

arXiv2014

Pulsation period variations in the RRc Lyrae star KIC 5520878

Learned et. al. proposed that a sufficiently advanced extra-terrestrial civilization may tickle Cepheid and RR Lyrae variable stars with a neutrino beam at the right time, thus causing them to trigger early and jogging the otherwise very regular phase of their expansion and contraction. This would turn these stars into beacons to transmit information throughout the galaxy and beyond. The idea is to search for signs of phase modulation (in the regime of short pulse duration) and patterns, which could be indicative of intentional, omnidirectional signaling. We have performed such a search among variable stars using photometric data from the Kepler space telescope. In the RRc Lyrae star KIC 5520878, we have found two such regimes of long and short pulse durations. The sequence of period lengths, expressed as time series data, is strongly auto correlated, with correlation coefficients of prime numbers being significantly higher ($p=99.8$\%). Our analysis of this candidate star shows that the prime number oddity originates from two simultaneous pulsation periods and is likely of natural origin. Simple physical models elucidate the frequency content and asymmetries of the KIC 5520878 light curve. Despite this SETI null result, we encourage testing other archival and future time-series photometry for signs of modulated stars. This can be done as a by-product to the standard analysis, and even partly automated.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2014

Square root two period ratios in Cepheid and RR Lyrae variable stars

We document the presence of a few Cepheid and RR Lyrae variable stars with previously unrecognized characteristics. These stars exhibit the property of a period ratio of main pulsation divided by secondary pulsation P1/P2 very close to sqrt(2). Other stars of these types have period ratios which do not show clustering with a close association and a single remarkable non-harmonic number. Close examination reveals a deviation of multiples of a few times ~0.06% for these stars. This deviation seems to be present in discrete steps on the order of ~0.000390(4), indicating the possible presence of a sort of fine structure in this oscillation.

astro-ph.SR↗