arXiv subjects

Michael I. Jordan

Publications and source records attributed to Michael I. Jordan.

At least 253 records · Page 14Linked to original sources

arXiv2020

Transferable Calibration with Lower Bias and Variance in Domain Adaptation

Domain Adaptation (DA) enables transferring a learning machine from a labeled source domain to an unlabeled target one. While remarkable advances have been made, most of the existing DA methods focus on improving the target accuracy at inference. How to estimate the predictive uncertainty of DA models is vital for decision-making in safety-critical scenarios but remains the boundary to explore. In this paper, we delve into the open problem of Calibration in DA, which is extremely challenging due to the coexistence of domain shift and the lack of target labels. We first reveal the dilemma that DA models learn higher accuracy at the expense of well-calibrated probabilities. Driven by this finding, we propose Transferable Calibration (TransCal) to achieve more accurate calibration with lower bias and variance in a unified hyperparameter-free optimization framework. As a general post-hoc calibration method, TransCal can be easily applied to recalibrate existing DA methods. Its efficacy has been justified both theoretically and empirically.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

Do Offline Metrics Predict Online Performance in Recommender Systems?

Recommender systems operate in an inherently dynamical setting. Past recommendations influence future behavior, including which data points are observed and how user preferences change. However, experimenting in production systems with real user dynamics is often infeasible, and existing simulation-based approaches have limited scale. As a result, many state-of-the-art algorithms are designed to solve supervised learning problems, and progress is judged only by offline metrics. In this work we investigate the extent to which offline metrics predict online performance by evaluating eleven recommenders across six controlled simulated environments. We observe that offline metrics are correlated with online performance over a range of environments. However, improvements in offline metrics lead to diminishing returns in online performance. Furthermore, we observe that the ranking of recommenders varies depending on the amount of initial offline data available. We study the impact of adding exploration strategies, and observe that their effectiveness, when compared to greedy recommendation, is highly dependent on the recommendation algorithm. We provide the environments and recommenders described in this paper as Reclab: an extensible ready-to-use simulation framework at https://github.com/berkeley-reclab/RecLab.

cs.IR↗

arXiv2020

On the Theory of Transfer Learning: The Importance of Task Diversity

We provide new statistical guarantees for transfer learning via representation learning--when transfer is achieved by learning a feature representation shared across different tasks. This enables learning on new tasks using far less data than is required to learn them in isolation. Formally, we consider $t+1$ tasks parameterized by functions of the form $f_j \circ h$ in a general function class $\mathcal{F} \circ \mathcal{H}$, where each $f_j$ is a task-specific function in $\mathcal{F}$ and $h$ is the shared representation in $\mathcal{H}$. Letting $C(\cdot)$ denote the complexity measure of the function class, we show that for diverse training tasks (1) the sample complexity needed to learn the shared representation across the first $t$ training tasks scales as $C(\mathcal{H}) + t C(\mathcal{F})$, despite no explicit access to a signal from the feature representation and (2) with an accurate estimate of the representation, the sample complexity needed to learn a new task scales only with $C(\mathcal{F})$. Our results depend upon a new general notion of task diversity--applicable to models with general tasks, features, and losses--as well as a novel chain rule for Gaussian complexities. Finally, we exhibit the utility of our general framework in several models of importance in the literature.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

Decision-Making with Auto-Encoding Variational Bayes

To make decisions based on a model fit with auto-encoding variational Bayes (AEVB), practitioners often let the variational distribution serve as a surrogate for the posterior distribution. This approach yields biased estimates of the expected risk, and therefore leads to poor decisions for two reasons. First, the model fit with AEVB may not equal the underlying data distribution. Second, the variational distribution may not equal the posterior distribution under the fitted model. We explore how fitting the variational distribution based on several objective functions other than the ELBO, while continuing to fit the generative model based on the ELBO, affects the quality of downstream decisions. For the probabilistic principal component analysis model, we investigate how importance sampling error, as well as the bias of the model parameter estimates, varies across several approximate posteriors when used as proposal distributions. Our theoretical results suggest that a posterior approximation distinct from the variational distribution should be used for making decisions. Motivated by these theoretical results, we propose learning several approximate proposals for the best model and combining them using multiple importance sampling for decision-making. In addition to toy examples, we present a full-fledged case study of single-cell RNA sequencing. In this challenging instance of multiple hypothesis testing, our proposed approach surpasses the current state of the art.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2020

Posterior Distribution for the Number of Clusters in Dirichlet Process Mixture Models

Dirichlet process mixture models (DPMM) play a central role in Bayesian nonparametrics, with applications throughout statistics and machine learning. DPMMs are generally used in clustering problems where the number of clusters is not known in advance, and the posterior distribution is treated as providing inference for this number. Recently, however, it has been shown that the DPMM is inconsistent in inferring the true number of components in certain cases. This is an asymptotic result, and it would be desirable to understand whether it holds with finite samples, and to more fully understand the full posterior. In this work, we provide a rigorous study for the posterior distribution of the number of clusters in DPMM under different prior distributions on the parameters and constraints on the distributions of the data. We provide novel lower bounds on the ratios of probabilities between $s+1$ clusters and $s$ clusters when the prior distributions on parameters are chosen to be Gaussian or uniform distributions.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2020

Exploration in two-stage recommender systems

Two-stage recommender systems are widely adopted in industry due to their scalability and maintainability. These systems produce recommendations in two steps: (i) multiple nominators preselect a small number of items from a large pool using cheap-to-compute item embeddings; (ii) with a richer set of features, a ranker rearranges the nominated items and serves them to the user. A key challenge of this setup is that optimal performance of each stage in isolation does not imply optimal global performance. In response to this issue, Ma et al. (2020) proposed a nominator training objective importance weighted by the ranker's probability of recommending each item. In this work, we focus on the complementary issue of exploration. Modeled as a contextual bandit problem, we find LinUCB (a near optimal exploration strategy for single-stage systems) may lead to linear regret when deployed in two-stage recommenders. We therefore propose a method of synchronising the exploration strategies between the ranker and the nominators. Our algorithm only relies on quantities already computed by standard LinUCB at each stage and can be implemented in three lines of additional code. We end by demonstrating the effectiveness of our algorithm experimentally.

cs.IR↗

arXiv2020

Improved Sample Complexity for Stochastic Compositional Variance Reduced Gradient

Convex composition optimization is an emerging topic that covers a wide range of applications arising from stochastic optimal control, reinforcement learning and multi-stage stochastic programming. Existing algorithms suffer from unsatisfactory sample complexity and practical issues since they ignore the convexity structure in the algorithmic design. In this paper, we develop a new stochastic compositional variance-reduced gradient algorithm with the sample complexity of $O((m+n)\log(1/ε)+1/ε^3)$ where $m+n$ is the total number of samples. Our algorithm is near-optimal as the dependence on $m+n$ is optimal up to a logarithmic factor. Experimental results on real-world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of the new algorithm.

math.OC↗

arXiv2020

Asynchronous Online Testing of Multiple Hypotheses

We consider the problem of asynchronous online testing, aimed at providing control of the false discovery rate (FDR) during a continual stream of data collection and testing, where each test may be a sequential test that can start and stop at arbitrary times. This setting increasingly characterizes real-world applications in science and industry, where teams of researchers across large organizations may conduct tests of hypotheses in a decentralized manner. The overlap in time and space also tends to induce dependencies among test statistics, a challenge for classical methodology, which either assumes (overly optimistically) independence or (overly pessimistically) arbitrary dependence between test statistics. We present a general framework that addresses both of these issues via a unified computational abstraction that we refer to as "conflict sets." We show how this framework yields algorithms with formal FDR guarantees under a more intermediate, local notion of dependence. We illustrate our algorithms in simulations by comparing to existing algorithms for online FDR control.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2020

What is Local Optimality in Nonconvex-Nonconcave Minimax Optimization?

Minimax optimization has found extensive applications in modern machine learning, in settings such as generative adversarial networks (GANs), adversarial training and multi-agent reinforcement learning. As most of these applications involve continuous nonconvex-nonconcave formulations, a very basic question arises---"what is a proper definition of local optima?" Most previous work answers this question using classical notions of equilibria from simultaneous games, where the min-player and the max-player act simultaneously. In contrast, most applications in machine learning, including GANs and adversarial training, correspond to sequential games, where the order of which player acts first is crucial (since minimax is in general not equal to maximin due to the nonconvex-nonconcave nature of the problems). The main contribution of this paper is to propose a proper mathematical definition of local optimality for this sequential setting---local minimax, as well as to present its properties and existence results. Finally, we establish a strong connection to a basic local search algorithm---gradient descent ascent (GDA): under mild conditions, all stable limit points of GDA are exactly local minimax points up to some degenerate points.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

On Localized Discrepancy for Domain Adaptation

We propose the discrepancy-based generalization theories for unsupervised domain adaptation. Previous theories introduced distribution discrepancies defined as the supremum over complete hypothesis space. The hypothesis space may contain hypotheses that lead to unnecessary overestimation of the risk bound. This paper studies the localized discrepancies defined on the hypothesis space after localization. First, we show that these discrepancies have desirable properties. They could be significantly smaller than the pervious discrepancies. Their values will be different if we exchange the two domains, thus can reveal asymmetric transfer difficulties. Next, we derive improved generalization bounds with these discrepancies. We show that the discrepancies could influence the rate of the sample complexity. Finally, we further extend the localized discrepancies for achieving super transfer and derive generalization bounds that could be even more sample-efficient on source domain.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

Continuous-time Lower Bounds for Gradient-based Algorithms

This article derives lower bounds on the convergence rate of continuous-time gradient-based optimization algorithms. The algorithms are subjected to a time-normalization constraint that avoids a reparametrization of time in order to make the discussion of continuous-time convergence rates meaningful. We reduce the multi-dimensional problem to a single dimension, recover well-known lower bounds from the discrete-time setting, and provide insight into why these lower bounds occur. We present algorithms that achieve the proposed lower bounds, even when the function class under consideration includes certain nonconvex functions.

math.OC↗

arXiv2020

Covariance estimation with nonnegative partial correlations

We study the problem of high-dimensional covariance estimation under the constraint that the partial correlations are nonnegative. The sign constraints dramatically simplify estimation: the Gaussian maximum likelihood estimator is well defined with only two observations regardless of the number of variables. We analyze its performance in the setting where the dimension may be much larger than the sample size. We establish that the estimator is both high-dimensionally consistent and minimax optimal in the symmetrized Stein loss. We also prove a negative result which shows that the sign-constraints can introduce substantial bias for estimating the top eigenvalue of the covariance matrix.

math.ST↗

arXiv2020

Optimal Robust Linear Regression in Nearly Linear Time

We study the problem of high-dimensional robust linear regression where a learner is given access to $n$ samples from the generative model $Y = \langle X,w^* \rangle + ε$ (with $X \in \mathbb{R}^d$ and $ε$ independent), in which an $η$ fraction of the samples have been adversarially corrupted. We propose estimators for this problem under two settings: (i) $X$ is L4-L2 hypercontractive, $\mathbb{E} [XX^\top]$ has bounded condition number and $ε$ has bounded variance and (ii) $X$ is sub-Gaussian with identity second moment and $ε$ is sub-Gaussian. In both settings, our estimators: (a) Achieve optimal sample complexities and recovery guarantees up to log factors and (b) Run in near linear time ($\tilde{O}(nd / η^6)$). Prior to our work, polynomial time algorithms achieving near optimal sample complexities were only known in the setting where $X$ is Gaussian with identity covariance and $ε$ is Gaussian, and no linear time estimators were known for robust linear regression in any setting. Our estimators and their analysis leverage recent developments in the construction of faster algorithms for robust mean estimation to improve runtimes, and refined concentration of measure arguments alongside Gaussian rounding techniques to improve statistical sample complexities.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2020

Competing Bandits in Matching Markets

Stable matching, a classical model for two-sided markets, has long been studied with little consideration for how each side's preferences are learned. With the advent of massive online markets powered by data-driven matching platforms, it has become necessary to better understand the interplay between learning and market objectives. We propose a statistical learning model in which one side of the market does not have a priori knowledge about its preferences for the other side and is required to learn these from stochastic rewards. Our model extends the standard multi-armed bandits framework to multiple players, with the added feature that arms have preferences over players. We study both centralized and decentralized approaches to this problem and show surprising exploration-exploitation trade-offs compared to the single player multi-armed bandits setting.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

Finding Equilibrium in Multi-Agent Games with Payoff Uncertainty

We study the problem of finding equilibrium strategies in multi-agent games with incomplete payoff information, where the payoff matrices are only known to the players up to some bounded uncertainty sets. In such games, an ex-post equilibrium characterizes equilibrium strategies that are robust to the payoff uncertainty. When the game is one-shot, we show that in zero-sum polymatrix games, an ex-post equilibrium can be computed efficiently using linear programming. We further extend the notion of ex-post equilibrium to stochastic games, where the game is played repeatedly in a sequence of stages and the transition dynamics are governed by an Markov decision process (MDP). We provide sufficient condition for the existence of an ex-post Markov perfect equilibrium (MPE). We show that under bounded payoff uncertainty, the value of any two-player zero-sum stochastic game can be computed up to a tight value interval using dynamic programming.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2020

Manifold Learning via Manifold Deflation

Nonlinear dimensionality reduction methods provide a valuable means to visualize and interpret high-dimensional data. However, many popular methods can fail dramatically, even on simple two-dimensional manifolds, due to problems such as vulnerability to noise, repeated eigendirections, holes in convex bodies, and boundary bias. We derive an embedding method for Riemannian manifolds that iteratively uses single-coordinate estimates to eliminate dimensions from an underlying differential operator, thus "deflating" it. These differential operators have been shown to characterize any local, spectral dimensionality reduction method. The key to our method is a novel, incremental tangent space estimator that incorporates global structure as coordinates are added. We prove its consistency when the coordinates converge to true coordinates. Empirically, we show our algorithm recovers novel and interesting embeddings on real-world and synthetic datasets.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2020

Sharp convergence rates for Langevin dynamics in the nonconvex setting

We study the problem of sampling from a distribution $p^*(x) \propto \exp\left(-U(x)\right)$, where the function $U$ is $L$-smooth everywhere and $m$-strongly convex outside a ball of radius $R$, but potentially nonconvex inside this ball. We study both overdamped and underdamped Langevin MCMC and establish upper bounds on the number of steps required to obtain a sample from a distribution that is within $ε$ of $p^*$ in $1$-Wasserstein distance. For the first-order method (overdamped Langevin MCMC), the iteration complexity is $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}\left(e^{cLR^2}d/ε^2\right)$, where $d$ is the dimension of the underlying space. For the second-order method (underdamped Langevin MCMC), the iteration complexity is $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}\left(e^{cLR^2}\sqrt{d}/ε\right)$ for an explicit positive constant $c$. Surprisingly, the iteration complexity for both these algorithms is only polynomial in the dimension $d$ and the target accuracy $ε$. It is exponential, however, in the problem parameter $LR^2$, which is a measure of non-log-concavity of the target distribution.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2020

Accelerated Message Passing for Entropy-Regularized MAP Inference

Maximum a posteriori (MAP) inference in discrete-valued Markov random fields is a fundamental problem in machine learning that involves identifying the most likely configuration of random variables given a distribution. Due to the difficulty of this combinatorial problem, linear programming (LP) relaxations are commonly used to derive specialized message passing algorithms that are often interpreted as coordinate descent on the dual LP. To achieve more desirable computational properties, a number of methods regularize the LP with an entropy term, leading to a class of smooth message passing algorithms with convergence guarantees. In this paper, we present randomized methods for accelerating these algorithms by leveraging techniques that underlie classical accelerated gradient methods. The proposed algorithms incorporate the familiar steps of standard smooth message passing algorithms, which can be viewed as coordinate minimization steps. We show that these accelerated variants achieve faster rates for finding $ε$-optimal points of the unregularized problem, and, when the LP is tight, we prove that the proposed algorithms recover the true MAP solution in fewer iterations than standard message passing algorithms.

cs.LG↗