arXiv subjects

Michael I. Jordan

Publications and source records attributed to Michael I. Jordan.

At least 235 records · Page 13Linked to original sources

arXiv2021

Test-time Collective Prediction

An increasingly common setting in machine learning involves multiple parties, each with their own data, who want to jointly make predictions on future test points. Agents wish to benefit from the collective expertise of the full set of agents to make better predictions than they would individually, but may not be willing to release their data or model parameters. In this work, we explore a decentralized mechanism to make collective predictions at test time, leveraging each agent's pre-trained model without relying on external validation, model retraining, or data pooling. Our approach takes inspiration from the literature in social science on human consensus-making. We analyze our mechanism theoretically, showing that it converges to inverse meansquared-error (MSE) weighting in the large-sample limit. To compute error bars on the collective predictions we propose a decentralized Jackknife procedure that evaluates the sensitivity of our mechanism to a single agent's prediction. Empirically, we demonstrate that our scheme effectively combines models with differing quality across the input space. The proposed consensus prediction achieves significant gains over classical model averaging, and even outperforms weighted averaging schemes that have access to additional validation data.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

Bandit Learning in Decentralized Matching Markets

We study two-sided matching markets in which one side of the market (the players) does not have a priori knowledge about its preferences for the other side (the arms) and is required to learn its preferences from experience. Also, we assume the players have no direct means of communication. This model extends the standard stochastic multi-armed bandit framework to a decentralized multiple player setting with competition. We introduce a new algorithm for this setting that, over a time horizon $T$, attains $\mathcal{O}(\log(T))$ stable regret when preferences of the arms over players are shared, and $\mathcal{O}(\log(T)^2)$ regret when there are no assumptions on the preferences on either side. Moreover, in the setting where a single player may deviate, we show that the algorithm is incentive compatible whenever the arms' preferences are shared, but not necessarily so when preferences are fully general.

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arXiv2021

PAC Best Arm Identification Under a Deadline

We study $(ε, δ)$-PAC best arm identification, where a decision-maker must identify an $ε$-optimal arm with probability at least $1 - δ$, while minimizing the number of arm pulls (samples). Most of the work on this topic is in the sequential setting, where there is no constraint on the time taken to identify such an arm; this allows the decision-maker to pull one arm at a time. In this work, the decision-maker is given a deadline of $T$ rounds, where, on each round, it can adaptively choose which arms to pull and how many times to pull them; this distinguishes the number of decisions made (i.e., time or number of rounds) from the number of samples acquired (cost). Such situations occur in clinical trials, where one may need to identify a promising treatment under a deadline while minimizing the number of test subjects, or in simulation-based studies run on the cloud, where we can elastically scale up or down the number of virtual machines to conduct as many experiments as we wish, but need to pay for the resource-time used. As the decision-maker can only make $T$ decisions, she may need to pull some arms excessively relative to a sequential algorithm in order to perform well on all possible problems. We formalize this added difficulty with two hardness results that indicate that unlike sequential settings, the ability to adapt to the problem difficulty is constrained by the finite deadline. We propose Elastic Batch Racing (EBR), a novel algorithm for this setting and bound its sample complexity, showing that EBR is optimal with respect to both hardness results. We present simulations evaluating EBR in this setting, where it outperforms baselines by several orders of magnitude.

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arXiv2021

Representation Matters: Assessing the Importance of Subgroup Allocations in Training Data

Collecting more diverse and representative training data is often touted as a remedy for the disparate performance of machine learning predictors across subpopulations. However, a precise framework for understanding how dataset properties like diversity affect learning outcomes is largely lacking. By casting data collection as part of the learning process, we demonstrate that diverse representation in training data is key not only to increasing subgroup performances, but also to achieving population level objectives. Our analysis and experiments describe how dataset compositions influence performance and provide constructive results for using trends in existing data, alongside domain knowledge, to help guide intentional, objective-aware dataset design.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

Resource Allocation in Multi-armed Bandit Exploration: Overcoming Sublinear Scaling with Adaptive Parallelism

We study exploration in stochastic multi-armed bandits when we have access to a divisible resource that can be allocated in varying amounts to arm pulls. We focus in particular on the allocation of distributed computing resources, where we may obtain results faster by allocating more resources per pull, but might have reduced throughput due to nonlinear scaling. For example, in simulation-based scientific studies, an expensive simulation can be sped up by running it on multiple cores. This speed-up however, is partly offset by the communication among cores, which results in lower throughput than if fewer cores were allocated per trial to run more trials in parallel. In this paper, we explore these trade-offs in two settings. First, in a fixed confidence setting, we need to find the best arm with a given target success probability as quickly as possible. We propose an algorithm which trades off between information accumulation and throughput and show that the time taken can be upper bounded by the solution of a dynamic program whose inputs are the gaps between the sub-optimal and optimal arms. We also prove a matching hardness result. Second, we present an algorithm for a fixed deadline setting, where we are given a time deadline and need to maximize the probability of finding the best arm. We corroborate our theoretical insights with simulation experiments that show that the algorithms consistently match or outperform baseline algorithms on a variety of problem instances.

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arXiv2021

Multi-Source Causal Inference Using Control Variates

While many areas of machine learning have benefited from the increasing availability of large and varied datasets, the benefit to causal inference has been limited given the strong assumptions needed to ensure identifiability of causal effects; these are often not satisfied in real-world datasets. For example, many large observational datasets (e.g., case-control studies in epidemiology, click-through data in recommender systems) suffer from selection bias on the outcome, which makes the average treatment effect (ATE) unidentifiable. We propose a general algorithm to estimate causal effects from \emph{multiple} data sources, where the ATE may be identifiable only in some datasets but not others. The key idea is to construct control variates using the datasets in which the ATE is not identifiable. We show theoretically that this reduces the variance of the ATE estimate. We apply this framework to inference from observational data under outcome selection bias, assuming access to an auxiliary small dataset from which we can obtain a consistent estimate of the ATE. We construct a control variate by taking the difference of the odds ratio estimates from the two datasets. Across simulations and two case studies with real data, we show that this control variate can significantly reduce the variance of the ATE estimate.

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arXiv2021

On dissipative symplectic integration with applications to gradient-based optimization

Recently, continuous-time dynamical systems have proved useful in providing conceptual and quantitative insights into gradient-based optimization, widely used in modern machine learning and statistics. An important question that arises in this line of work is how to discretize the system in such a way that its stability and rates of convergence are preserved. In this paper we propose a geometric framework in which such discretizations can be realized systematically, enabling the derivation of "rate-matching" algorithms without the need for a discrete convergence analysis. More specifically, we show that a generalization of symplectic integrators to nonconservative and in particular dissipative Hamiltonian systems is able to preserve rates of convergence up to a controlled error. Moreover, such methods preserve a shadow Hamiltonian despite the absence of a conservation law, extending key results of symplectic integrators to nonconservative cases. Our arguments rely on a combination of backward error analysis with fundamental results from symplectic geometry. We stress that although the original motivation for this work was the application to optimization, where dissipative systems play a natural role, they are fully general and not only provide a differential geometric framework for dissipative Hamiltonian systems but also substantially extend the theory of structure-preserving integration.

math.OC↗

arXiv2021

Optimization with Momentum: Dynamical, Control-Theoretic, and Symplectic Perspectives

We analyze the convergence rate of various momentum-based optimization algorithms from a dynamical systems point of view. Our analysis exploits fundamental topological properties, such as the continuous dependence of iterates on their initial conditions, to provide a simple characterization of convergence rates. In many cases, closed-form expressions are obtained that relate algorithm parameters to the convergence rate. The analysis encompasses discrete time and continuous time, as well as time-invariant and time-variant formulations, and is not limited to a convex or Euclidean setting. In addition, the article rigorously establishes why symplectic discretization schemes are important for momentum-based optimization algorithms, and provides a characterization of algorithms that exhibit accelerated convergence.

math.OC↗

arXiv2021

Interleaving Computational and Inferential Thinking: Data Science for Undergraduates at Berkeley

The undergraduate data science curriculum at the University of California, Berkeley is anchored in five new courses that emphasize computational thinking, inferential thinking, and working on real-world problems. We believe that interleaving these elements within our core courses is essential to preparing students to engage in data-driven inquiry at the scale that contemporary scientific and industrial applications demand. This new curriculum is already reshaping the undergraduate experience at Berkeley, where these courses have become some of the most popular on campus and have led to a surging interest in a new undergraduate major and minor program in data science.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2021

The Power of Batching in Multiple Hypothesis Testing

One important partition of algorithms for controlling the false discovery rate (FDR) in multiple testing is into offline and online algorithms. The first generally achieve significantly higher power of discovery, while the latter allow making decisions sequentially as well as adaptively formulating hypotheses based on past observations. Using existing methodology, it is unclear how one could trade off the benefits of these two broad families of algorithms, all the while preserving their formal FDR guarantees. To this end, we introduce $\text{Batch}_{\text{BH}}$ and $\text{Batch}_{\text{St-BH}}$, algorithms for controlling the FDR when a possibly infinite sequence of batches of hypotheses is tested by repeated application of one of the most widely used offline algorithms, the Benjamini-Hochberg (BH) method or Storey's improvement of the BH method. We show that our algorithms interpolate between existing online and offline methodology, thus trading off the best of both worlds.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2021

Efficient Methods for Structured Nonconvex-Nonconcave Min-Max Optimization

The use of min-max optimization in adversarial training of deep neural network classifiers and training of generative adversarial networks has motivated the study of nonconvex-nonconcave optimization objectives, which frequently arise in these applications. Unfortunately, recent results have established that even approximate first-order stationary points of such objectives are intractable, even under smoothness conditions, motivating the study of min-max objectives with additional structure. We introduce a new class of structured nonconvex-nonconcave min-max optimization problems, proposing a generalization of the extragradient algorithm which provably converges to a stationary point. The algorithm applies not only to Euclidean spaces, but also to general $\ell_p$-normed finite-dimensional real vector spaces. We also discuss its stability under stochastic oracles and provide bounds on its sample complexity. Our iteration complexity and sample complexity bounds either match or improve the best known bounds for the same or less general nonconvex-nonconcave settings, such as those that satisfy variational coherence or in which a weak solution to the associated variational inequality problem is assumed to exist.

math.OC↗

arXiv2021

Learning from eXtreme Bandit Feedback

We study the problem of batch learning from bandit feedback in the setting of extremely large action spaces. Learning from extreme bandit feedback is ubiquitous in recommendation systems, in which billions of decisions are made over sets consisting of millions of choices in a single day, yielding massive observational data. In these large-scale real-world applications, supervised learning frameworks such as eXtreme Multi-label Classification (XMC) are widely used despite the fact that they incur significant biases due to the mismatch between bandit feedback and supervised labels. Such biases can be mitigated by importance sampling techniques, but these techniques suffer from impractical variance when dealing with a large number of actions. In this paper, we introduce a selective importance sampling estimator (sIS) that operates in a significantly more favorable bias-variance regime. The sIS estimator is obtained by performing importance sampling on the conditional expectation of the reward with respect to a small subset of actions for each instance (a form of Rao-Blackwellization). We employ this estimator in a novel algorithmic procedure -- named Policy Optimization for eXtreme Models (POXM) -- for learning from bandit feedback on XMC tasks. In POXM, the selected actions for the sIS estimator are the top-p actions of the logging policy, where p is adjusted from the data and is significantly smaller than the size of the action space. We use a supervised-to-bandit conversion on three XMC datasets to benchmark our POXM method against three competing methods: BanditNet, a previously applied partial matching pruning strategy, and a supervised learning baseline. Whereas BanditNet sometimes improves marginally over the logging policy, our experiments show that POXM systematically and significantly improves over all baselines.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2020

On the Adaptivity of Stochastic Gradient-Based Optimization

Stochastic-gradient-based optimization has been a core enabling methodology in applications to large-scale problems in machine learning and related areas. Despite the progress, the gap between theory and practice remains significant, with theoreticians pursuing mathematical optimality at a cost of obtaining specialized procedures in different regimes (e.g., modulus of strong convexity, magnitude of target accuracy, signal-to-noise ratio), and with practitioners not readily able to know which regime is appropriate to their problem, and seeking broadly applicable algorithms that are reasonably close to optimality. To bridge these perspectives it is necessary to study algorithms that are adaptive to different regimes. We present the stochastically controlled stochastic gradient (SCSG) method for composite convex finite-sum optimization problems and show that SCSG is adaptive to both strong convexity and target accuracy. The adaptivity is achieved by batch variance reduction with adaptive batch sizes and a novel technique, which we referred to as geometrization, which sets the length of each epoch as a geometric random variable. The algorithm achieves strictly better theoretical complexity than other existing adaptive algorithms, while the tuning parameters of the algorithm only depend on the smoothness parameter of the objective.

math.OC↗

arXiv2020

On Function Approximation in Reinforcement Learning: Optimism in the Face of Large State Spaces

The classical theory of reinforcement learning (RL) has focused on tabular and linear representations of value functions. Further progress hinges on combining RL with modern function approximators such as kernel functions and deep neural networks, and indeed there have been many empirical successes that have exploited such combinations in large-scale applications. There are profound challenges, however, in developing a theory to support this enterprise, most notably the need to take into consideration the exploration-exploitation tradeoff at the core of RL in conjunction with the computational and statistical tradeoffs that arise in modern function-approximation-based learning systems. We approach these challenges by studying an optimistic modification of the least-squares value iteration algorithm, in the context of the action-value function represented by a kernel function or an overparameterized neural network. We establish both polynomial runtime complexity and polynomial sample complexity for this algorithm, without additional assumptions on the data-generating model. In particular, we prove that the algorithm incurs an $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(δ_{\mathcal{F}} H^2 \sqrt{T})$ regret, where $δ_{\mathcal{F}}$ characterizes the intrinsic complexity of the function class $\mathcal{F}$, $H$ is the length of each episode, and $T$ is the total number of episodes. Our regret bounds are independent of the number of states, a result which exhibits clearly the benefit of function approximation in RL.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

Optimal Mean Estimation without a Variance

We study the problem of heavy-tailed mean estimation in settings where the variance of the data-generating distribution does not exist. Concretely, given a sample $\mathbf{X} = \{X_i\}_{i = 1}^n$ from a distribution $\mathcal{D}$ over $\mathbb{R}^d$ with mean $μ$ which satisfies the following \emph{weak-moment} assumption for some ${α\in [0, 1]}$: \begin{equation*} \forall \|v\| = 1: \mathbb{E}_{X \thicksim \mathcal{D}}[\lvert \langle X - μ, v\rangle \rvert^{1 + α}] \leq 1, \end{equation*} and given a target failure probability, $δ$, our goal is to design an estimator which attains the smallest possible confidence interval as a function of $n,d,δ$. For the specific case of $α= 1$, foundational work of Lugosi and Mendelson exhibits an estimator achieving subgaussian confidence intervals, and subsequent work has led to computationally efficient versions of this estimator. Here, we study the case of general $α$, and establish the following information-theoretic lower bound on the optimal attainable confidence interval: \begin{equation*} Ω\left(\sqrt{\frac{d}{n}} + \left(\frac{d}{n}\right)^{\fracα{(1 + α)}} + \left(\frac{\log 1 / δ}{n}\right)^{\fracα{(1 + α)}}\right). \end{equation*} Moreover, we devise a computationally-efficient estimator which achieves this lower bound.

math.ST↗

arXiv2020

Stochastic Gradient and Langevin Processes

We prove quantitative convergence rates at which discrete Langevin-like processes converge to the invariant distribution of a related stochastic differential equation. We study the setup where the additive noise can be non-Gaussian and state-dependent and the potential function can be non-convex. We show that the key properties of these processes depend on the potential function and the second moment of the additive noise. We apply our theoretical findings to studying the convergence of Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD) for non-convex problems and corroborate them with experiments using SGD to train deep neural networks on the CIFAR-10 dataset.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

Generalized Momentum-Based Methods: A Hamiltonian Perspective

We take a Hamiltonian-based perspective to generalize Nesterov's accelerated gradient descent and Polyak's heavy ball method to a broad class of momentum methods in the setting of (possibly) constrained minimization in Euclidean and non-Euclidean normed vector spaces. Our perspective leads to a generic and unifying nonasymptotic analysis of convergence of these methods in both the function value (in the setting of convex optimization) and in norm of the gradient (in the setting of unconstrained, possibly nonconvex, optimization). Our approach relies upon a time-varying Hamiltonian that produces generalized momentum methods as its equations of motion. The convergence analysis for these methods is intuitive and is based on the conserved quantities of the time-dependent Hamiltonian.

math.OC↗

arXiv2020

Robust Optimization for Fairness with Noisy Protected Groups

Many existing fairness criteria for machine learning involve equalizing some metric across protected groups such as race or gender. However, practitioners trying to audit or enforce such group-based criteria can easily face the problem of noisy or biased protected group information. First, we study the consequences of naively relying on noisy protected group labels: we provide an upper bound on the fairness violations on the true groups G when the fairness criteria are satisfied on noisy groups $\hat{G}$. Second, we introduce two new approaches using robust optimization that, unlike the naive approach of only relying on $\hat{G}$, are guaranteed to satisfy fairness criteria on the true protected groups G while minimizing a training objective. We provide theoretical guarantees that one such approach converges to an optimal feasible solution. Using two case studies, we show empirically that the robust approaches achieve better true group fairness guarantees than the naive approach.

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