arXiv subjects

Michael I. Jordan

Publications and source records attributed to Michael I. Jordan.

At least 163 records · Page 9Linked to original sources

arXiv2022

Off-Policy Evaluation with Policy-Dependent Optimization Response

The intersection of causal inference and machine learning for decision-making is rapidly expanding, but the default decision criterion remains an \textit{average} of individual causal outcomes across a population. In practice, various operational restrictions ensure that a decision-maker's utility is not realized as an \textit{average} but rather as an \textit{output} of a downstream decision-making problem (such as matching, assignment, network flow, minimizing predictive risk). In this work, we develop a new framework for off-policy evaluation with \textit{policy-dependent} linear optimization responses: causal outcomes introduce stochasticity in objective function coefficients. Under this framework, a decision-maker's utility depends on the policy-dependent optimization, which introduces a fundamental challenge of \textit{optimization} bias even for the case of policy evaluation. We construct unbiased estimators for the policy-dependent estimand by a perturbation method, and discuss asymptotic variance properties for a set of adjusted plug-in estimators. Lastly, attaining unbiased policy evaluation allows for policy optimization: we provide a general algorithm for optimizing causal interventions. We corroborate our theoretical results with numerical simulations.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

On Constraints in First-Order Optimization: A View from Non-Smooth Dynamical Systems

We introduce a class of first-order methods for smooth constrained optimization that are based on an analogy to non-smooth dynamical systems. Two distinctive features of our approach are that (i) projections or optimizations over the entire feasible set are avoided, in stark contrast to projected gradient methods or the Frank-Wolfe method, and (ii) iterates are allowed to become infeasible, which differs from active set or feasible direction methods, where the descent motion stops as soon as a new constraint is encountered. The resulting algorithmic procedure is simple to implement even when constraints are nonlinear, and is suitable for large-scale constrained optimization problems in which the feasible set fails to have a simple structure. The key underlying idea is that constraints are expressed in terms of velocities instead of positions, which has the algorithmic consequence that optimizations over feasible sets at each iteration are replaced with optimizations over local, sparse convex approximations. In particular, this means that at each iteration only constraints that are violated are taken into account. The result is a simplified suite of algorithms and an expanded range of possible applications in machine learning.

math.OC↗

arXiv2022

On the Complexity of Deterministic Nonsmooth and Nonconvex Optimization

In this paper, we present several new results on minimizing a nonsmooth and nonconvex function under a Lipschitz condition. Recent work shows that while the classical notion of Clarke stationarity is computationally intractable up to some sufficiently small constant tolerance, the randomized first-order algorithms find a $(δ, ε)$-Goldstein stationary point with the complexity bound of $\tilde{O}(δ^{-1}ε^{-3})$, which is independent of dimension $d \geq 1$~\citep{Zhang-2020-Complexity, Davis-2022-Gradient, Tian-2022-Finite}. However, the deterministic algorithms have not been fully explored, leaving open several problems in nonsmooth nonconvex optimization. Our first contribution is to demonstrate that the randomization is \textit{necessary} to obtain a dimension-independent guarantee, by proving a lower bound of $Ω(d)$ for any deterministic algorithm that has access to both $1^{st}$ and $0^{th}$ oracles. Furthermore, we show that the $0^{th}$ oracle is \textit{essential} to obtain a finite-time convergence guarantee, by showing that any deterministic algorithm with only the $1^{st}$ oracle is not able to find an approximate Goldstein stationary point within a finite number of iterations up to sufficiently small constant parameter and tolerance. Finally, we propose a deterministic smoothing approach under the \textit{arithmetic circuit} model where the resulting smoothness parameter is exponential in a certain parameter $M > 0$ (e.g., the number of nodes in the representation of the function), and design a new deterministic first-order algorithm that achieves a dimension-independent complexity bound of $\tilde{O}(Mδ^{-1}ε^{-3})$.

math.OC↗

arXiv2022

Gradient-Free Methods for Deterministic and Stochastic Nonsmooth Nonconvex Optimization

Nonsmooth nonconvex optimization problems broadly emerge in machine learning and business decision making, whereas two core challenges impede the development of efficient solution methods with finite-time convergence guarantee: the lack of computationally tractable optimality criterion and the lack of computationally powerful oracles. The contributions of this paper are two-fold. First, we establish the relationship between the celebrated Goldstein subdifferential~\citep{Goldstein-1977-Optimization} and uniform smoothing, thereby providing the basis and intuition for the design of gradient-free methods that guarantee the finite-time convergence to a set of Goldstein stationary points. Second, we propose the gradient-free method (GFM) and stochastic GFM for solving a class of nonsmooth nonconvex optimization problems and prove that both of them can return a $(δ,ε)$-Goldstein stationary point of a Lipschitz function $f$ at an expected convergence rate at $O(d^{3/2}δ^{-1}ε^{-4})$ where $d$ is the problem dimension. Two-phase versions of GFM and SGFM are also proposed and proven to achieve improved large-deviation results. Finally, we demonstrate the effectiveness of 2-SGFM on training ReLU neural networks with the \textsc{Minst} dataset.

math.OC↗

arXiv2022

TCT: Convexifying Federated Learning using Bootstrapped Neural Tangent Kernels

State-of-the-art federated learning methods can perform far worse than their centralized counterparts when clients have dissimilar data distributions. For neural networks, even when centralized SGD easily finds a solution that is simultaneously performant for all clients, current federated optimization methods fail to converge to a comparable solution. We show that this performance disparity can largely be attributed to optimization challenges presented by nonconvexity. Specifically, we find that the early layers of the network do learn useful features, but the final layers fail to make use of them. That is, federated optimization applied to this non-convex problem distorts the learning of the final layers. Leveraging this observation, we propose a Train-Convexify-Train (TCT) procedure to sidestep this issue: first, learn features using off-the-shelf methods (e.g., FedAvg); then, optimize a convexified problem obtained from the network's empirical neural tangent kernel approximation. Our technique yields accuracy improvements of up to +36% on FMNIST and +37% on CIFAR10 when clients have dissimilar data.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

An Instance-Dependent Analysis for the Cooperative Multi-Player Multi-Armed Bandit

We study the problem of information sharing and cooperation in Multi-Player Multi-Armed bandits. We propose the first algorithm that achieves logarithmic regret for this problem when the collision reward is unknown. Our results are based on two innovations. First, we show that a simple modification to a successive elimination strategy can be used to allow the players to estimate their suboptimality gaps, up to constant factors, in the absence of collisions. Second, we leverage the first result to design a communication protocol that successfully uses the small reward of collisions to coordinate among players, while preserving meaningful instance-dependent logarithmic regret guarantees.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

A General Framework for Sample-Efficient Function Approximation in Reinforcement Learning

With the increasing need for handling large state and action spaces, general function approximation has become a key technique in reinforcement learning (RL). In this paper, we propose a general framework that unifies model-based and model-free RL, and an Admissible Bellman Characterization (ABC) class that subsumes nearly all Markov Decision Process (MDP) models in the literature for tractable RL. We propose a novel estimation function with decomposable structural properties for optimization-based exploration and the functional eluder dimension as a complexity measure of the ABC class. Under our framework, a new sample-efficient algorithm namely OPtimization-based ExploRation with Approximation (OPERA) is proposed, achieving regret bounds that match or improve over the best-known results for a variety of MDP models. In particular, for MDPs with low Witness rank, under a slightly stronger assumption, OPERA improves the state-of-the-art sample complexity results by a factor of $dH$. Our framework provides a generic interface to design and analyze new RL models and algorithms.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

Learn then Test: Calibrating Predictive Algorithms to Achieve Risk Control

We introduce a framework for calibrating machine learning models so that their predictions satisfy explicit, finite-sample statistical guarantees. Our calibration algorithms work with any underlying model and (unknown) data-generating distribution and do not require model refitting. The framework addresses, among other examples, false discovery rate control in multi-label classification, intersection-over-union control in instance segmentation, and the simultaneous control of the type-1 error of outlier detection and confidence set coverage in classification or regression. Our main insight is to reframe the risk-control problem as multiple hypothesis testing, enabling techniques and mathematical arguments different from those in the previous literature. We use the framework to provide new calibration methods for several core machine learning tasks, with detailed worked examples in computer vision and tabular medical data.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

First-Order Algorithms for Min-Max Optimization in Geodesic Metric Spaces

From optimal transport to robust dimensionality reduction, a plethora of machine learning applications can be cast into the min-max optimization problems over Riemannian manifolds. Though many min-max algorithms have been analyzed in the Euclidean setting, it has proved elusive to translate these results to the Riemannian case. Zhang et al. [2022] have recently shown that geodesic convex concave Riemannian problems always admit saddle-point solutions. Inspired by this result, we study whether a performance gap between Riemannian and optimal Euclidean space convex-concave algorithms is necessary. We answer this question in the negative-we prove that the Riemannian corrected extragradient (RCEG) method achieves last-iterate convergence at a linear rate in the geodesically strongly-convex-concave case, matching the Euclidean result. Our results also extend to the stochastic or non-smooth case where RCEG and Riemanian gradient ascent descent (RGDA) achieve near-optimal convergence rates up to factors depending on curvature of the manifold.

math.OC↗

arXiv2022

Uncertainty Sets for Image Classifiers using Conformal Prediction

Convolutional image classifiers can achieve high predictive accuracy, but quantifying their uncertainty remains an unresolved challenge, hindering their deployment in consequential settings. Existing uncertainty quantification techniques, such as Platt scaling, attempt to calibrate the network's probability estimates, but they do not have formal guarantees. We present an algorithm that modifies any classifier to output a predictive set containing the true label with a user-specified probability, such as 90%. The algorithm is simple and fast like Platt scaling, but provides a formal finite-sample coverage guarantee for every model and dataset. Our method modifies an existing conformal prediction algorithm to give more stable predictive sets by regularizing the small scores of unlikely classes after Platt scaling. In experiments on both Imagenet and Imagenet-V2 with ResNet-152 and other classifiers, our scheme outperforms existing approaches, achieving coverage with sets that are often factors of 5 to 10 smaller than a stand-alone Platt scaling baseline.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2022

On the Theory of Reinforcement Learning with Once-per-Episode Feedback

We study a theory of reinforcement learning (RL) in which the learner receives binary feedback only once at the end of an episode. While this is an extreme test case for theory, it is also arguably more representative of real-world applications than the traditional requirement in RL practice that the learner receive feedback at every time step. Indeed, in many real-world applications of reinforcement learning, such as self-driving cars and robotics, it is easier to evaluate whether a learner's complete trajectory was either "good" or "bad," but harder to provide a reward signal at each step. To show that learning is possible in this more challenging setting, we study the case where trajectory labels are generated by an unknown parametric model, and provide a statistically and computationally efficient algorithm that achieves sublinear regret.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

A Diffusion Process Perspective on Posterior Contraction Rates for Parameters

We analyze the posterior contraction rates of parameters in Bayesian models via the Langevin diffusion process, in particular by controlling moments of the stochastic process and taking limits. Analogous to the non-asymptotic analysis of statistical M-estimators and stochastic optimization algorithms, our contraction rates depend on the structure of the population log-likelihood function, and stochastic perturbation bounds between the population and sample log-likelihood functions. Convergence rates are determined by a non-linear equation that relates the population-level structure to stochastic perturbation terms, along with a term characterizing the diffusive behavior. Based on this technique, we also prove non-asymptotic versions of a Bernstein-von-Mises guarantee for the posterior. We illustrate this general theory by deriving posterior convergence rates for various concrete examples, as well as approximate posterior distributions computed using Langevin sampling procedures.

math.ST↗

arXiv2022

Optimal Extragradient-Based Bilinearly-Coupled Saddle-Point Optimization

We consider the smooth convex-concave bilinearly-coupled saddle-point problem, $\min_{\mathbf{x}}\max_{\mathbf{y}}~F(\mathbf{x}) + H(\mathbf{x},\mathbf{y}) - G(\mathbf{y})$, where one has access to stochastic first-order oracles for $F$, $G$ as well as the bilinear coupling function $H$. Building upon standard stochastic extragradient analysis for variational inequalities, we present a stochastic \emph{accelerated gradient-extragradient (AG-EG)} descent-ascent algorithm that combines extragradient and Nesterov's acceleration in general stochastic settings. This algorithm leverages scheduled restarting to admit a fine-grained nonasymptotic convergence rate that matches known lower bounds by both \citet{ibrahim2020linear} and \citet{zhang2021lower} in their corresponding settings, plus an additional statistical error term for bounded stochastic noise that is optimal up to a constant prefactor. This is the first result that achieves such a relatively mature characterization of optimality in saddle-point optimization.

math.OC↗

arXiv2022

Learning Two-Player Mixture Markov Games: Kernel Function Approximation and Correlated Equilibrium

We consider learning Nash equilibria in two-player zero-sum Markov Games with nonlinear function approximation, where the action-value function is approximated by a function in a Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space (RKHS). The key challenge is how to do exploration in the high-dimensional function space. We propose a novel online learning algorithm to find a Nash equilibrium by minimizing the duality gap. At the core of our algorithms are upper and lower confidence bounds that are derived based on the principle of optimism in the face of uncertainty. We prove that our algorithm is able to attain an $O(\sqrt{T})$ regret with polynomial computational complexity, under very mild assumptions on the reward function and the underlying dynamic of the Markov Games. We also propose several extensions of our algorithm, including an algorithm with Bernstein-type bonus that can achieve a tighter regret bound, and another algorithm for model misspecification that can be applied to neural function approximation.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

Geometric Methods for Sampling, Optimisation, Inference and Adaptive Agents

In this chapter, we identify fundamental geometric structures that underlie the problems of sampling, optimisation, inference and adaptive decision-making. Based on this identification, we derive algorithms that exploit these geometric structures to solve these problems efficiently. We show that a wide range of geometric theories emerge naturally in these fields, ranging from measure-preserving processes, information divergences, Poisson geometry, and geometric integration. Specifically, we explain how (i) leveraging the symplectic geometry of Hamiltonian systems enable us to construct (accelerated) sampling and optimisation methods, (ii) the theory of Hilbertian subspaces and Stein operators provides a general methodology to obtain robust estimators, (iii) preserving the information geometry of decision-making yields adaptive agents that perform active inference. Throughout, we emphasise the rich connections between these fields; e.g., inference draws on sampling and optimisation, and adaptive decision-making assesses decisions by inferring their counterfactual consequences. Our exposition provides a conceptual overview of underlying ideas, rather than a technical discussion, which can be found in the references herein.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2022

Local Exchangeability

Exchangeability -- in which the distribution of an infinite sequence is invariant to reorderings of its elements -- implies the existence of a simple conditional independence structure that may be leveraged in the design of statistical models and inference procedures. In this work, we study a relaxation of exchangeability in which this invariance need not hold precisely. We introduce the notion of local exchangeability -- where swapping data associated with nearby covariates causes a bounded change in the distribution. We prove that locally exchangeable processes correspond to independent observations from an underlying measure-valued stochastic process. Using this main probabilistic result, we show that the local empirical measure of a finite collection of observations provides an approximation of the underlying measure-valued process and Bayesian posterior predictive distributions. The paper concludes with applications of the main theoretical results to a model from Bayesian nonparametrics and covariate-dependent permutation tests.

math.ST↗

arXiv2022

Breaking Feedback Loops in Recommender Systems with Causal Inference

Recommender systems play a key role in shaping modern web ecosystems. These systems alternate between (1) making recommendations (2) collecting user responses to these recommendations, and (3) retraining the recommendation algorithm based on this feedback. During this process the recommender system influences the user behavioral data that is subsequently used to update it, thus creating a feedback loop. Recent work has shown that feedback loops may compromise recommendation quality and homogenize user behavior, raising ethical and performance concerns when deploying recommender systems. To address these issues, we propose the Causal Adjustment for Feedback Loops (CAFL), an algorithm that provably breaks feedback loops using causal inference and can be applied to any recommendation algorithm that optimizes a training loss. Our main observation is that a recommender system does not suffer from feedback loops if it reasons about causal quantities, namely the intervention distributions of recommendations on user ratings. Moreover, we can calculate this intervention distribution from observational data by adjusting for the recommender system's predictions of user preferences. Using simulated environments, we demonstrate that CAFL improves recommendation quality when compared to prior correction methods.

cs.IR↗

arXiv2022

Ranking and Tuning Pre-trained Models: A New Paradigm for Exploiting Model Hubs

Model hubs with many pre-trained models (PTMs) have become a cornerstone of deep learning. Although built at a high cost, they remain \emph{under-exploited} -- practitioners usually pick one PTM from the provided model hub by popularity and then fine-tune the PTM to solve the target task. This naïve but common practice poses two obstacles to full exploitation of pre-trained model hubs: first, the PTM selection by popularity has no optimality guarantee, and second, only one PTM is used while the remaining PTMs are ignored. An alternative might be to consider all possible combinations of PTMs and extensively fine-tune each combination, but this would not only be prohibitive computationally but may also lead to statistical over-fitting. In this paper, we propose a new paradigm for exploiting model hubs that is intermediate between these extremes. The paradigm is characterized by two aspects: (1) We use an evidence maximization procedure to estimate the maximum value of label evidence given features extracted by pre-trained models. This procedure can rank all the PTMs in a model hub for various types of PTMs and tasks \emph{before fine-tuning}. (2) The best ranked PTM can either be fine-tuned and deployed if we have no preference for the model's architecture or the target PTM can be tuned by the top $K$ ranked PTMs via a Bayesian procedure that we propose. This procedure, which we refer to as \emph{B-Tuning}, not only improves upon specialized methods designed for tuning homogeneous PTMs, but also applies to the challenging problem of tuning heterogeneous PTMs where it yields a new level of benchmark performance.

cs.LG↗