arXiv subjects

Michael Kupper

Publications and source records attributed to Michael Kupper.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

An optimal transport foundation for a class of dynamically consistent risk measures

We study a class of dynamically consistent risk measures that robustify a time-homogeneous Markovian reference model by allowing for distributional uncertainty in its transition laws. We start from one-step convex risk evaluations in which ambiguity is captured by penalized worst-case expectations over alternative transition laws. Imposing time consistency then yields a convex monotone semigroup on bounded continuous payoff functions, and this semigroup represents the associated dynamic risk measure. The semigroup is uniquely characterized by its risk generator. Under a lower bound on the family of penalties in terms of suitable optimal transport costs relative to the reference laws, we identify the generator on smooth test functions. For optimal transport bounds with linear small-time scaling, this produces a first-order, drift-type correction given by a convex Hamiltonian acting on the gradient. Under martingale transport constraints and a different scaling, however, the leading correction is genuinely of second order and is described by a convex monotone functional acting on the Hessian. We illustrate both regimes for Wasserstein and martingale Wasserstein penalizations and derive explicit formulas via convex conjugates of the underlying transport costs. The associated dynamic risk measures admit stochastic control representations in which the control acts on the drift in the first-order case and on the volatility in the second-order case.

q-fin.MF↗

arXiv2025

Asymptotic Optimality in Data-Driven Decision Making

Given data generated by an observable stochastic process, we study how to construct statistically optimal decisions for general stochastic optimization problems. Our setting encompasses non-standard data structures, including data originating from heterogeneous sources or from randomly evolving data-generating mechanisms. We propose a decision-making approach that identifies optimal decisions for which a specific notion of risk of shifted regret decays to zero at a prescribed exponential rate. This optimal decision arises as the solution to a multi-objective optimization problem, which reflects asymptotic behavior properties of the data-generating process. Central to our framework is a rate function that characterizes this behavior via a Laplace principle, thereby generalizing standard concepts from large deviation theory. Our general formulation enables our approach to account for data from uncertain distributions and recovers classical results in data-driven decision making under uncertainty as special cases, including distributionally robust optimization. Moreover, our method enables decision-makers to systematically balance a desired rate of asymptotic risk decay against a potential loss in statistical consistency of the resulting data-driven decision. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach through illustrative examples from operations research, such as the newsvendor problem, under aleatoric uncertainty induced by heterogeneous data sources.

math.OC↗

arXiv2025

Martingales and Path-Dependent PDEs via Evolutionary Semigroups

In this article, we develop a semigroup-theoretic framework for the analytic characterisation of martingales with path-dependent terminal conditions. Our main result establishes that a measurable adapted process of the form \[ V(t) - \int_0^t\Psi(s)\, ds \] is a martingale with respect to an expectation operator $\mathbb{E}$ if and only if a time-shifted version of $V$ is a mild solution of a final value problem involving a path-dependent differential operator that is intrinsically connected to $\mathbb{E}$. We prove existence and uniqueness of strong and mild solutions for such final value problems with measurable terminal conditions using the concept of evolutionary semigroups. To characterise the compensator $\Psi$, we introduce the notion of $\mathbb{E}$-derivative of $V$, which in special cases coincides with Dupire's time derivative. We also compare our findings to path-dependent partial differential equations in terms of Dupire derivatives such as the path-dependent heat equation.

math.PR↗

arXiv2025

Representation Theorems for Convex Expectations and Semigroups on Path Space

The objective of this paper is to investigate the connection between penalty functions from stochastic optimal control, convex semigroups from analysis and convex expectations from probability theory. Our main result provides a one-to-one relation between these objects. As an application, we use the representation via penality functions and duality arguments to show that convex expectations are determined by their finite dimensional distributions. To illustrate this structural result, we show that Hu and Peng's axiomatic description of $G$-L\'evy processes in terms of finite dimensional distributions extends uniquely to the control approach introduced by Neufeld and Nutz. Finally, we show that convex expectations with a Markovian structure are fully determined by their one-dimensional distributions, which give rise to a classical semigroup on the state space. As an application of this result, we establish a Laplace principle for entropic risk measures associated to controlled diffusions.

math.OC↗

arXiv2025

Hopf-Lax approximation for value functions of L\'evy optimal control problems

In this paper, we investigate stochastic versions of the Hopf-Lax formula which are based on compositions of the Hopf-Lax operator with the transition kernel of a L\'evy process taking values in a separable Banach space. We show that, depending on the order of the composition, one obtains upper and lower bounds for the value function of a stochastic optimal control problem associated to the drift controlled L\'evy dynamics. Dynamic consistency is restored by iterating the resulting operators. Moreover, the value function of the control problem is approximated both from above and below as the number of iterations tends to infinity, and we provide explicit convergence rates and guarantees for the approximation procedure.

math.OC↗

arXiv2024

Discrete approximation of risk-based prices under volatility uncertainty

We discuss the asymptotic behaviour of risk-based indifference prices of European contingent claims in discrete-time financial markets under volatility uncertainty as the number of intermediate trading periods tends to infinity. The asymptotic risk-based prices form a strongly continuous convex monotone semigroup which is uniquely determined by its infinitesimal generator and therefore only depends on the covariance of the random factors but not on the particular choice of the model. We further compare the risk-based prices with the worst-case prices given by the $G$-expectation and investigate their asymptotic behaviour as the risk aversion of the agent tends to infinity. The theoretical results are illustrated with several examples and numerical simulations showing, in particular, that the risk-based prices lead to a significant reduction of the bid-ask spread compared to the worst-case prices.

q-fin.MF↗

arXiv2024

Evolutionary semigroups on path spaces

We introduce the concept evolutionary semigroups on path spaces, generalizing the notion of transition semigroups to possibly non-Markovian stochastic processes. We study the basic properties of evolutionary semigroups and, in particular, prove that they always arise as the composition of the shift semigroup and a single operator called the expectation operator of the semigroup. We also prove that the transition semigroup of a Markov process can always be extended to an evolutionary semigroup on the path space whenever the Markov process can be realized with the appropriate path regularity. As first examples of evolutionary semigroups associated to non-Markovian processes, we discuss deterministic evolution equations and stochastic flows driven by L\'evy processes. The latter in particular include certain stochastic delay equations.

math.FA↗

arXiv2023

Risk measures based on weak optimal transport

In this paper, we study convex risk measures with weak optimal transport penalties. In a first step, we show that these risk measures allow for an explicit representation via a nonlinear transform of the loss function. In a second step, we discuss computational aspects related to the nonlinear transform as well as approximations of the risk measures using, for example, neural networks. Our setup comprises a variety of examples, such as classical optimal transport penalties, parametric families of models, uncertainty on path spaces, moment constrains, and martingale constraints. In a last step, we show how to use the theoretical results for the numerical computation of worst-case losses in an insurance context and no-arbitrage prices of European contingent claims after quoted maturities in a model-free setting.

q-fin.MF↗

arXiv2023

Convergence rates for Chernoff-type approximations of convex monotone semigroups

We provide explicit convergence rates for Chernoff-type approximations of convex monotone semigroups which have the form $S(t)f=\lim_{n\to\infty}I(\frac{t}{n})^n f$ for bounded continuous functions $f$. Under suitable conditions on the one-step operators $I(t)$ regarding the time regularity and consistency of the approximation scheme, we obtain $\|S(t)f-I(\frac{t}{n})^n f\|_\infty\leq cn^{-\gamma}$ for bounded Lipschitz continuous functions $f$, where $c\geq 0$ and $\gamma>0$ are determined explicitly. Moreover, the mapping $t\mapsto S(t)f$ is H\"older continuous. These results are closely related to monotone approximation schemes for viscosity solutions but are obtained independently by following a recently developed semigroup approach to Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equations which uniquely characterizes semigroups via their $\Gamma$-generators. The different approach allows to consider convex rather than sublinear equations and the results can be extended to unbounded functions by modifying the norm with a suitable weight function. Furthermore, up to possibly different consistency errors for the operators $I(t)$, the upper and lower bound for the error between the semigroup and the iterated operators are symmetric. The abstract results are applied to Nisio semigroups and limit theorems for convex expectations.

math.PR↗

arXiv2023

Convergence of infinitesimal generators and stability of convex monotone semigroups

Based on the convergence of their infinitesimal generators in the mixed topology, we provide a stability result for strongly continuous convex monotone semigroups on spaces of continuous functions. In contrast to previous results, we do not rely on the theory of viscosity solutions but use a recent comparison principle which uniquely determines the semigroup via its $\Gamma$-generator defined on the Lipschitz set and therefore resembles the classical analogue from the linear case. The framework also allows for discretizations both in time and space and covers a variety of applications. This includes Euler schemes and Yosida-type approximations for upper envelopes of families of linear semigroups, stability results and finite-difference schemes for convex HJB equations, Freidlin-Wentzell-type results and Markov chain approximations for a class of stochastic optimal control problems and continuous-time Markov processes with uncertain transition probabilities.

math.AP↗

arXiv2022

Nonlinear semigroups and limit theorems for convex expectations

Based on the Chernoff approximation, we provide a general approximation result for convex monotone semigroups which are continuous w.r.t. the mixed topology on suitable spaces of continuous functions. Starting with a family $(I(t))_{t\geq 0}$ of operators, the semigroup is constructed as the limit $S(t)f:=\lim_{n\to\infty}I(\frac{t}{n})^n f$ and is uniquely determined by the time derivative $I'(0)f$ for smooth functions. We identify explicit conditions for the generating family $(I(t))_{t\geq 0}$ that are transferred to the semigroup $(S(t))_{t\geq 0}$ and can easily be verified in applications. Furthermore, there is a structural link between Chernoff type approximations for nonlinear semigroups and law of large numbers and central limit theorem type results for convex expectations. The framework also includes large deviation results.

math.PR↗

arXiv2022

Convex monotone semigroups and their generators with respect to $\Gamma$-convergence

We study semigroups of convex monotone operators on spaces of continuous functions and their behaviour with respect to $\Gamma$-convergence. In contrast to the linear theory, the domain of the generator is, in general, not invariant under the semigroup. To overcome this issue, we consider different versions of invariant Lipschitz sets which turn out to be suitable domains for weaker notions of the generator. The so-called $\Gamma$-generator is defined as the time derivative with respect to $\Gamma$-convergence in the space of upper semicontinuous functions. Under suitable assumptions, we show that the $\Gamma$-generator uniquely characterizes the semigroup and is determined by its evaluation at smooth functions. Furthermore, we provide Chernoff approximation results for convex monotone semigroups and show that approximation schemes based on the same infinitesimal behaviour lead to the same semigroup. Our results are applied to semigroups related to stochastic optimal control problems in finite and infinite-dimensional settings as well as Wasserstein perturbations of transition semigroups.

math.AP↗

arXiv2021

Wasserstein perturbations of Markovian transition semigroups

In this paper, we deal with a class of time-homogeneous continuous-time Markov processes with transition probabilities bearing a nonparametric uncertainty. The uncertainty is modeled by considering perturbations of the transition probabilities within a proximity in Wasserstein distance. As a limit over progressively finer time periods, on which the level of uncertainty scales proportionally, we obtain a convex semigroup satisfying a nonlinear PDE in a viscosity sense. A remarkable observation is that, in standard situations, the nonlinear transition operators arising from nonparametric uncertainty coincide with the ones related to parametric drift uncertainty. On the level of the generator, the uncertainty is reflected as an additive perturbation in terms of a convex functional of first order derivatives. We additionally provide sensitivity bounds for the convex semigroup relative to the reference model. The results are illustrated with Wasserstein perturbations of L\'evy processes, infinite-dimensional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes, geometric Brownian motions, and Koopman semigroups.

math.PR↗

arXiv2021

Viscous Hamilton-Jacobi equations in exponential Orlicz hearts

We provide a semigroup approach to the viscous Hamilton-Jacobi equation. It turns out that exponential Orlicz hearts are suitable spaces to handle the (quadratic) non-linearity of the Hamiltonian. Based on an abstract extension result for nonlinear semigroups on spaces of continuous functions, we represent the solution of the viscous Hamilton-Jacobi equation as a strongly continuous convex semigroup on an exponential Orlicz heart. As a result, the solution depends continuously on the initial data. We further determine the symmetric Lipschitz set which is invariant under the semigroup. This automatically yields a priori estimates and regularity in Sobolev spaces. In particular, on the domain restricted to the symmetric Lipschitz set, the generator can be explicitly determined and linked with the viscous Hamilton-Jacobi equation.

math.AP↗

arXiv2021

Weakly maxitive set functions and their possibility distributions

The Shilkret integral with respect to a completely maxitive capacity is fully determined by a possibility distribution. In this paper, we introduce a weaker topological form of maxitivity and show that under this assumption the Shilkret integral is still determined by its possibility distribution for functions that are sufficiently regular. Motivated by large deviations theory, we provide a Laplace principle for maxitive integrals and characterize the possibility distribution under certain separation and convexity assumptions. Moreover, we show a maxitive integral representation result for weakly maxitive non-linear expectations. The theoretical results are illustrated by providing large deviations bounds for sequences of capacities, and by deriving a monotone analogue of Cram\'{e}r's theorem.

math.PR↗

arXiv2020

Nonlinear semigroups built on generating families and their Lipschitz sets

Under suitable conditions on a family $(I(t))_{t\ge 0}$ of Lipschitz mappings on a complete metric space, we show that up to a subsequence the strong limit $S(t):=\lim_{n\to\infty}(I(t 2^{-n}))^{2^n}$ exists for all dyadic time points $t$, and extends to a strongly continuous semigroup $(S(t))_{t\ge 0}$. The common idea in the present approach is to find conditions on the generating family $(I(t))_{t\ge 0}$, which by iteration can be transferred to the semigroup. The construction relies on the Lipschitz set, which is invariant under iterations and allows to preserve Lipschitz continuity to the limit. Moreover, we provide a verifiable condition which ensures that the infinitesimal generator of the semigroup is given by $\lim_{h\downarrow 0}\tfrac{I(h)x-x}{h}$ whenever this limit exists. The results are illustrated with several examples of nonlinear semigroups such as robustifications and perturbations of linear semigroups.

math.AP↗

arXiv2020

Convex monotone semigroups on lattices of continuous functions

We consider convex monotone $C_0$-semigroups on a Banach lattice, which is assumed to be a Riesz subspace of a $\sigma$-Dedekind complete Banach lattice. Typical examples include the space of all bounded uniformly continuous functions and the space of all continuous functions vanishing at infinity. We show that the domain of the classical generator of a convex semigroup is typically not invariant. Therefore, we propose alternative versions for the domain, such as the monotone domain and the Lipschitz set, for which we prove invariance under the semigroup. As a main result, we obtain the uniqueness of the semigroup in terms of an extended version of the generator. The results are illustrated with several examples related to Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equations, including nonlinear versions of the shift semigroup and the heat equation. In particular, we determine their symmetric Lipschitz sets, which are invariant and allow to understand the generators in a weak sense.

math.AP↗

arXiv2020

Limits of random walks with distributionally robust transition probabilities

We consider a nonlinear random walk which, in each time step, is free to choose its own transition probability within a neighborhood (w.r.t. Wasserstein distance) of the transition probability of a fixed L\'evy process. In analogy to the classical framework we show that, when passing from discrete to continuous time via a scaling limit, this nonlinear random walk gives rise to a nonlinear semigroup. We explicitly compute the generator of this semigroup and corresponding PDE as a perturbation of the generator of the initial L\'evy process.

math.PR↗