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Michael Zevin

Publications and source records attributed to Michael Zevin.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
arXiv2026

The Mass-Ratio Distribution of the Low-Mass Binary Black Hole Subpopulation: A Natural Outcome of Isolated Binary Evolution

The observed merging binary black hole population is increasingly consistent with being composed of a mixture of subpopulations, each likely the result of different formation mechanisms. In particular, the low-mass subpopulation, with primary black hole masses below $\approxeq 15\,M_{\odot}$, has been attributed to mergers formed through isolated binary evolution. We use the binary population synthesis code POSYDON to study the mass ratio $(q)$ distribution of binary black hole mergers from isolated binary evolution and compare to the observed low-mass subpopulation. We explore variations in supernova remnant prescriptions, common-envelope efficiency, and black hole accretion efficiency. We find that our models have a preference for asymmetric $q$, most with a broad peak near $q\approxeq0.5-0.7$, and a near-equal-mass component whose relative strength varies across models. This resultant $q$ distribution is consistent with the $q$ distribution of the low-mass subpopulation observed with gravitational waves. We find that for the majority of models these features arise from physically distinct formation subchannels: the asymmetric peak reflects contributions from common-envelope and stable mass-transfer systems, while the near-equal-mass component traces double-core common envelope and contact systems. We conclude that the features in the $q$ distribution of the observed low-mass subpopulation emerge naturally from isolated binary evolution across a range of model assumptions. As the gravitational-wave catalog continues to grow, the relative strength of these $q$ features will provide an increasingly powerful diagnostic of isolated binary evolution and its formation subchannels.

astro-ph.HE↗
arXiv2026

When the stars don't align: Investigating inconsistencies in binary black hole formation across population synthesis codes

Binary population synthesis (BPS) codes are extremely useful tools for investigating both the end-to-end lives of binary stars as well as a myriad of astrophysical phenomena observed in the Universe. Given the widespread use of BPS in modern astrophysical research, it is imperative to systematically compare BPS codes across the spectrum of computational efficiency, flexibility, and physical realism to gauge their consistency and robustness. In this work, we perform BPS using three modern codes---the rapid code $\texttt{COSMIC}$, the hybrid code $\texttt{METISSE}$ integrated into $\texttt{COSMIC}$, and the detailed code $\texttt{POSYDON}$---on three single-metallicity populations of identical initial binaries, ensuring consistent choices in physical parameterizations where possible. Investigating the final population of merging binary black holes (BBHs) as a test case, we find stark differences in the properties, formation pathways, and progenitors across the three codes. In an initial population of one million binary stars at $0.01 Z_\odot$, each code results in $\sim 5,000-9,000$ BBHs that merge within a Hubble time. However, only one initial binary becomes a BBH merger in all three codes, and $\lesssim 14 \%$ of BBH progenitors consistently merge in two codes. Binaries that become BBH mergers in two codes often go through different evolutionary pathways and result in different final properties. In short, the codes are inconsistent in predicting BBH merger properties, even for identical initial binary systems. Our results highlight the need for systematic comparisons of BPS techniques, for a deeper understanding of physical and computational differences between BPS codes, and for caution in over-interpreting the results from any BPS code. (Abridged)

astro-ph.HE↗
arXiv2026

High-mass binary black hole mergers from detailed binary evolution models

Gravitational-wave observations reveal a population of binary black hole (BBH) mergers with primary masses above ${\sim}40\,\mathrm{M}_\odot$, extending into and potentially beyond the pair-instability mass gap, with a possibly flat mass-ratio and broader \chi_\mathrm{eff} distribution. We investigate whether super-Eddington accretion during stable mass transfer in isolated binary evolution can produce BBH mergers consistent with these properties across primary BH mass, mass-ratio, and \chi_\mathrm{eff} distributions. Using POSYDON, we simulate BBH merger populations with primary BH masses above ${\sim}40\,\mathrm{M}_\odot$, under three BH accretion efficiencies: Eddington-limited, GRRMHD-informed, and fully conservative. We additionally vary the natal kick strength, including strong kicks at high BH masses. We find that super-Eddington accretion does not suppress BBH mergers in the high-mass regime. Fully-conservative accretion leads to an increase of BBH mergers in POSYDON with a strong kick-independent peak at $\chi_\mathrm{eff}=0.6$ and a sharp mass-ratio peak at $q\sim0.5$, whereas observations favor $\chi_\mathrm{eff}=0.0$ and a flatter mass-ratio distribution. The GRRMHD-informed and Eddington-limited accretion are compatible with the observed primary BH mass and mass ratio distribution, but require natal kicks to populate negative \chi_\mathrm{eff}. A joint analysis of the primary BH mass, mass ratio, and \chi_\mathrm{eff} distributions provides strong constraints on binary evolution physics, and disfavor fully-conservative BH accretion as the dominant formation mechanism for high-mass BBH mergers. The Eddington-limited and GRRMHD-informed prescriptions with modest kicks can explain part of the high-mass population, but an additional formation channel is still needed to account for the high fraction of negative \chi_\mathrm{eff} systems and high secondary BH spins.

astro-ph.HE↗
arXiv2026

Twin Peaks: Resolving Features in the Binary Black Hole Mass Function with COSMIC-METISSE

Gravitational waves from inspiraling binary black holes (BBHs) provide insights into the lives and deaths of massive stars. Population synthesis allows us to model these binaries through isolated binary evolution, but its predictive power is limited by difficulties in varying the stellar models and their associated uncertainties. We present a new grid of stellar tracks computed with the open-source stellar evolution code MESA, spanning metallicities $10^{-3} \le Z/Z_{\odot} \le 7$. We vary two stellar physics parameters: wind-driven mass loss and the convective boundary mixing (CBM) mechanism. We pair these models with the Method of Interpolation for Single Stellar Evolution (METISSE) and binary population synthesis code COSMIC to obtain synthetic populations of merging BBHs in the local Universe. We find a maximum in the primary mass spectrum near $10M_\odot$ which in most model variations is composed of two sub-populations at $\approx8M_{\odot}$ and $\approx13 M_\odot$, with the higher-mass population dominated by BBHs whose progenitors underwent a mass ratio reversal (MRR). This population also suggests an anticorrelation between higher primary masses and mass ratio, as BBHs with $m_1\gtrapprox10M_\odot$ preferentially undergo MRR and prefer a final mass ratio of $q\approx0.7$. However, the location and relative strength of these two sub-populations is sensitive to our assumed stellar physics: varying both the wind and CBM treatments can merge the MRR and non-MRR populations into a single peak near $9M_\odot$. Variations in our stellar tracks, especially CBM, lead to a factor of $\approx6$ difference in the rate, primarily due to modulation of the common envelope formation channel.

astro-ph.HE↗
arXiv2026

Red vs. Blue: How metallicity shapes black hole dynamics and mergers in dense star clusters

Dense star clusters are a well-established environment for the formation of gravitational wave sources through dynamical interactions. Recent LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA (LVK) events such as GW241011 and GW241110 provide some of the best evidence yet for a dynamical origin. However, their relatively low component masses are in tension with predictions from low-metallicity globular cluster models (which typically produce more massive black holes), hinting that these events may have originated in higher-metallicity environments. Here we present a new set of Monte Carlo star cluster simulations with refined coverage in metallicity, focusing specifically on clusters with [Fe/H] $\geq-1$, similar to the ''red'' globular cluster subpopulation observed in most galaxies. We show that metallicity has a significant effect on the mass function of black holes and black hole mergers, the total number of black hole mergers per cluster, black hole retention from natal kicks, the mass segregation time for black-hole-driven cluster dynamics, and the merger delay time distribution. We also show that high-metallicity cluster models produce low-mass hierarchical mergers consistent with the mass ratios and component masses of GW241011 and GW241110, motivating the importance of high-metallicity clusters in the astrophysical interpretation of future LVK catalogs.

astro-ph.GA↗
arXiv2026

No model-independent evidence for a peak in binary black hole spin (mis)alignments

The degree of black-hole spin-orbit misalignment ("tilts") in the astrophysical population could be a powerful diagnostic to distinguish between binary formation in isolation, in dynamical environments, or in hierarchical triples. However, robust population-level spin tilt measurements are complicated by model misspecification as well as numerical and Poisson variance, ultimately owing to poor single-event constraints on tilts. Motivated by reports of a possible peak in the spin tilt distribution, we analyze the fourth LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA gravitational-wave transient catalog to test for preferred spin orientations at different black hole masses. We find that a peak in spin tilts is not statistically significant nor model independent. Since the data cannot be used to reliably identify subpopulations based on their spin tilt properties, we also consider a complementary approach: measuring the spin magnitude and tilt distributions at fixed mass scales. We find no confident correlation between mass and spin tilt, but we do confirm a confident correlation between spin magnitude and mass, corroborating recent analyses.

astro-ph.HE↗
arXiv2026

On the Astrophysical Origin of Binary Black Hole Subpopulations: A Tale of Three Channels?

There is increasing evidence for multiple binary black hole~(BBH) subpopulations in the cumulative gravitational wave catalog by the LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA Collaboration. The astrophysical interpretation of this complex underlying population is subject to theoretical uncertainties in treatments of binary stellar evolution, core collapse, and host environments. In this \textit{Letter}, using parametrized mixture models, we show that the BBH detection sample comprises three astrophysical subpopulations that are likely dominated by specific formation channels. In particular, we show that the $10M_{\odot}$ peak and the $35M_{\odot}$ feature in the BBH mass spectrum correspond to distinct mass-ratio, spin alignment, spin precession, and redshift evolution properties. We show that mass-based transitions reported in the distribution of BBH parameters naturally emerge from our inferred distributions without explicit modeling. Our results are consistent with the current observed population arising from specific relative abundances of isolated binary evolution, dynamical formation in globular clusters, and higher-generation BBH mergers. Under this interpretation, we constrain the relative underlying fraction of these channels to be $79.0^{+11.5}_{-10.9}\%$, $14.5^{+11.6}_{-8.0}\%$, and, $2.5^{+5.5}_{-1.8}\%$, respectively, and find these relative fractions to be evolving over cosmic time with more than $1\sigma$ confidence. Our interpretation relies on simple theoretical predictions that are mostly robust against uncertainties in BBH formation, with more definite conclusions expected in the near future.

astro-ph.HE↗
arXiv2026

A case for Case A: detailed look at binary black hole formation through stable mass transfer

In isolated binary evolution, binary black hole (BBH) mergers are generally formed through stable mass transfer (SMT) or common envelope evolution. In recent years, the SMT channel has received significant attention due to detailed binary models showing increased mass transfer stability compared to previous studies. In this work, we perform a full zero-age-main-sequence to compact object merger analysis using detailed binary models at eight metallicities between $10^{-4}Z_\odot$ and $2Z_\odot$ to self-consistently model the population properties of BBH mergers in the SMT channel, determined their progenitor initial conditional, and investigate the binary physics governing their formation and metallicity dependence. We use the population synthesis code POSYDON to determine the population of BBH mergers from SMT. Using its extended grids of MESA binary models, we determine the essential physics in the formation of BBH mergers. SMT produces BBH mergers predominantly from systems with $P_{ZAMS}\leq10$ days. In these systems, both the initial mass transfer between two stars and the subsequent interaction between the remaining star and the first-born BH take place while the respective donor star is on the main-sequence (Case A). We find a limited contribution from wider Case B/C systems. Without a natal kick, the SMT channel does not produce BBH mergers above $Z>0.2Z_\odot$ due to orbital widening from stellar wind mass loss. The primary BH mass distribution shows a strong dependence on metallicity, while the mass ratio prefers unity independent of metallicity due to mass ratio reversal. Additionally, the $\chi_{eff}$ distributions contain peaks at $\chi_{eff}=0$ and ~0.15 of which the former disappears at high metallicities. A mass-scaled natal kick leave this sub-population unchanged but introduce a low-mass, unequal mass ratio sub-population that merges due to their high eccentricity.

astro-ph.HE↗
arXiv2026

Signatures of a subpopulation of hierarchical mergers in the GWTC-4 gravitational-wave dataset

Repeated black-hole mergers in dense stellar clusters are a plausible mechanism to populate the predicted gap in black hole masses due to the pair-instability supernova process. These hierarchical mergers carry distinct spin characteristics relative to first-generation black holes. We introduce an astrophysically motivated model in the joint space of effective inspiral and precessing spins, which captures the dominant spin dynamics expected for hierarchical mergers. We find decisive evidence for a transition at $m_1 = 46.2_{-7.2}^{+12.6} M_\odot$, above which the population is nearly entirely hierarchical, a location consistent with the anticipated onset of the pair-instability gap. We also infer a global peak in the hierarchical merger rate at $m_1 = 15.7_{-1.1}^{+3.2} M_\odot$. The existence of low- and high-mass subpopulations of higher-generation black holes suggests the contribution of both near-solar-metallicity and metal-poor star clusters to the hierarchical merger population. Our results reinforce the growing evidence for detailed, mass-dependent substructure in the spin distribution of the binary black hole population.

gr-qc↗
arXiv2025

Astrophysical Implications of Eccentricity in Gravitational Waves from Neutron Star-Black Hole Binaries

The gravitational-wave signal from the neutron star-black hole (NSBH) merger GW200105 is consistent with this binary having significant orbital eccentricity close to merger. This raises the question of how eccentric NSBHs form. Compact binaries that evolve in isolation radiate away any orbital eccentricity long before their gravitational-wave signal enters the sensitive frequency range of the LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA detector network. Meanwhile, dynamical environments -- which can be conducive to mergers on eccentric orbits -- produce very few NSBHs. Here, we focus on a formation channel that efficiently produces NSBHs with both misaligned spins and significant eccentricity close to merger: isolated field triples. We estimate the minimum measurable eccentricity of NSBHs at 10 Hz orbit-averaged gravitational-wave frequency, e_min,10, finding that for GW200105, GW200115, and GW230529-like systems, e_min,10 is O(0.01). For a GW190814-like unequal-mass binary with significant higher-order mode content, e_min,10 = 0.003; this is an order of magnitude lower than when higher modes are not present. For dominant-mode signals from binaries with $m_2=1.5$~M$_\odot$ and total masses from $3\,{\rm M_\odot} \leq M \leq50\,\rm M_\odot$, we find $0.008 \leq$ e_min,10 $\leq 0.022$. The relationship between $M$ and e_min,10 is linear when the binaries are non-spinning. When the binaries are maximally spin-precessing, e_min,10 decreases as mass ratio becomes more unequal. We estimate the sensitivity of a quasi-circular aligned-spin templated search to NSBH mergers from field triples, finding that we recover only 46% of systems that would have been detected with a search containing the full physics of the injected population. Finally, we show that if $\sim\nicefrac{1}{3}$ of present NSBH detections are measurably eccentric, then $\geq40\%$ are consistent with an isolated field triple origin.

astro-ph.HE↗
arXiv2025

Exploring the astrophysical origins of binary black holes using normalising flows

The growing number of gravitational-wave detections from binary black holes enables increasingly precise measurements of their population properties. The observed population is most likely drawn from multiple formation channels. Population-synthesis simulations allow detailed modelling of each of these channels, and comparing population-synthesis models with the observations allows us to constrain the uncertain physics of binary black hole formation and evolution. However, the most detailed population-synthesis codes are computationally expensive. We demonstrate the use of normalising flows to emulate five different population synthesis models, reducing the computational expense, and allowing interpolation between the populations predicted for different simulation inputs. With the trained normalising flows, we measure the branching ratios of different formation channels and details of binary stellar evolution, using the current catalogue of gravitational-wave observations.

astro-ph.HE↗
arXiv2025

Compact Binary Coalescence Sensitivity Estimates with Injection Campaigns during the LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA Collaborations' Fourth Observing Run

We describe the effort to characterize gravitational-wave searches and detector sensitivity to different types of compact binary coalescences during the LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA Collaborations' fourth observing run. We discuss the design requirements and example use cases for this data product, constructed from $> 4.33\times10^8$ injections during O4a alone. We also identify subtle effects with high confidence, like diurnal duty cycles within detectors. This paper accompanies a public data release of the curated injection set, and the appendixes give detailed examples of how to use the publicly available data.

gr-qc↗
arXiv2025

Hierarchical Triples vs. Globular Clusters: Binary black hole merger eccentricity distributions compete and evolve with redshift

The formation mechanisms of merging binary black holes (BBHs) observed by the LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA collaboration remain uncertain. Detectable eccentricity provides a powerful diagnostic for distinguishing between different formation channels, but resolving their eccentricity distributions requires the detection of a large number of eccentric mergers. Future gravitational wave detectors such as the Einstein Telescope and Cosmic Explorer will detect tens of thousands of BBH mergers out to redshifts $z \ge 10$, making it critical to understand the redshift-dependent evolution of eccentricity distributions. We simulate this evolution for two key channels: dynamical assembly in globular clusters (GCs), which leads to rapid, eccentric mergers; and hierarchical triples in the field, where three-body dynamics can induce eccentricity in the inner binary. When considering all BBH mergers, the GC channel dominates overall, consistent with previous studies. However, when focusing on mergers with detectable eccentricity in next-generation detectors, we find that hierarchical triples dominate the eccentric merger rate at $0\le z \le 4$, with GC mergers becoming competitive at higher redshifts. Across all model variations, eccentric mergers in the local Universe ($z\lesssim 1$) have significant contributions from field triples, challenging the common view that such systems primarily form in dense environments. We show that, regardless of cluster and stellar evolution uncertainties, hierarchical triples contribute at least 30 per cent of eccentric mergers across a large range of redshifts.

astro-ph.GA↗
arXiv2025

Characterizing Compact-object Binaries in the Lower Mass Gap with Gravitational Waves

The source binary of the gravitational-wave (GW) event GW230529, detected at the beginning of the fourth LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA observing run, was inferred to consist of a NS and a compact object in the lower mass gap, a purported gap between the most massive NSs ($\sim 3\,M_\odot$) and least massive black holes (BHs; $\sim 5\,M_\odot$) based on compact-object observations in the Milky Way. While the nature of the mass-gap object could not be determined from the GW data alone for this event, definitively distinguishing whether this object is a NS or BH would have profound implications for the NS equation of state, supernova physics, and multimessenger astronomy. In this work, we perform parameter estimation on a suite of simulated GW systems with parameters similar to those of the GW230529 source binary to investigate whether the ambiguity in the physical nature of the source is a generic result for such systems. We vary the intrinsic properties of the simulated systems, the detector noise properties, the signal-to-noise ratios (SNRs), and the waveform model used in recovery. We find that the low SNR of GW230529 is the key reason for the ambiguity in determining whether the mass of the primary object in the binary is consistent with a low-mass BH or a high-mass NS, and thus the priors used for the masses and spins have a significant impact on the posterior distribution, which is a generic result for low-SNR events. The inclusion of tidal effects in the waveform model also contributes to the observed degeneracies in the posteriors, since the statistical uncertainties in analyses of GW events like GW230529 are larger for waveform models including tidal effects. We show that the future observation of such a system with a higher SNR ($\sim 30$) would increase the precision of the mass measurements sufficiently to allow us to determine the nature of the mass-gap object.

astro-ph.HE↗
arXiv2025

Exploring the evolution of gravitational-wave emitters with efficient emulation: Constraining the origins of binary black holes using normalising flows

Binary population synthesis simulations allow detailed modelling of gravitational-wave sources from a variety of formation channels. These population models can be compared to the observed catalogue of merging binaries to infer the uncertain astrophysical input parameters describing binary formation and evolution, as well as relative rates between various formation pathways. However, it is computationally infeasible to run population synthesis simulations for all variations of uncertain input physics. We demonstrate the use of normalising flows to emulate population synthesis results and interpolate between astrophysical input parameters. Using current gravitational-wave observations of binary black holes, we use our trained normalising flows to infer branching ratios between multiple formation channels, and simultaneously infer common-envelope efficiency and natal spins across a continuous parameter range. Given our set of formation channel models, we infer the natal spin to be $0.04^{+0.04}_{-0.01}$, and the common-envelope efficiency to be $>3.7$ at 90% credibility, with the majority of underlying mergers coming from the common-envelope channel. Our framework allows us to measure population synthesis inputs where we do not have simulations, and better constrain the astrophysics underlying current gravitational-wave populations.

astro-ph.HE↗
arXiv2024

Large Gravitational Wave Phase Shifts from Strong 3-body Interactions in Dense Stellar Clusters

The phase evolution of gravitational waves (GWs) can be modulated by the astrophysical environment surrounding the source, which provides a probe for the origin of individual binary black holes (BBHs) using GWs alone. We here study the evolving phase of the GW waveform derived from a large set of simulations of BBH mergers forming in dense stellar clusters through binary-single interactions. We uncover that a well-defined fraction of the assembled eccentric GW sources will have a notable GW phase shift induced by the remaining third object. The magnitude of the GW phase shift often exceeds conservative analytical estimates due to strong 3-body interactions, which occasionally results in GW sources with clearly shifted and perturbed GW waveforms. This opens up promising opportunities for current and future GW detectors, as observing such a phase shift can identify the formation environment of a BBH, as well as help to characterise the local properties of its surrounding environment.

astro-ph.HE↗
arXiv2024

POSYDON Version 2: Population Synthesis with Detailed Binary-Evolution Simulations across a Cosmological Range of Metallicities

Whether considering rare astrophysical events on cosmological scales or unresolved stellar populations, accurate models must account for the integrated contribution from the entire history of star formation upon which that population is built. Here, we describe the second version of POSYDON, an open-source binary population synthesis code based on extensive grids of detailed binary evolution models computed using the MESA code, which follows both stars' structures as a binary system evolves through its complete evolution from the zero-age main sequence, through multiple phases of mass transfer and supernovae, to their death as compact objects. To generate synthetic binary populations, POSYDON uses advanced methods to interpolate between our large, densely spaced grids of simulated binaries. In our updated version of POSYDON, we account for the evolution of stellar binaries across a cosmological range of metallicities, extending from $10^{-4}$ $Z_{\odot}$ to 2 $Z_{\odot}$, including grids specifically focused on the Small and Large Magellanic Clouds (0.2 $Z_{\odot}$ and 0.45 $Z_{\odot}$). In addition to describing our model grids and detailing our methodology, we outline several improvements to POSYDON. These include the incorporation of single stars in stellar populations, a treatment for stellar mergers, and a careful modeling of "reverse-mass transferring" binaries in which a once-accreting star later becomes a donor star. Our simulations are focused on binaries with at least one high-mass component, such as those that host neutron stars and black holes, and we provide post-processing methods to account for the cosmological evolution of metallicity and star formation as well as rate calculations for transient events.

astro-ph.GA↗
arXiv2024

What is the nature of GW230529? An exploration of the gravitational lensing hypothesis

On the 29th of May 2023, the LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA Collaboration observed a compact binary coalescence event consistent with a neutron star-black hole merger, though the heavier object of mass 2.5-4.5 $M_\odot$ would fall into the purported lower mass gap. An alternative explanation for apparent observations of events in this mass range has been suggested as strongly gravitationally lensed binary neutron stars. In this scenario, magnification would lead to the source appearing closer and heavier than it really is. Here, we investigate the chances and possible consequences for the GW230529 event to be gravitationally lensed. We find this would require high magnifications and we obtain low rates for observing such an event, with a relative fraction of lensed versus unlensed observed events of $2 \times 10^{-3}$ at most. When comparing the lensed and unlensed hypotheses accounting for the latest rates and population model, we find a 1/58 chance of lensing, disfavoring this option. Moreover, when the magnification is assumed to be strong enough to bring the mass of the heavier binary component below the standard limits on neutron star masses, we find high probability for the lighter object to have a sub-solar mass, making the binary even more exotic than a mass-gap neutron star-black hole system. Even when the secondary is not sub-solar, its tidal deformability would likely be measurable, which is not the case for GW230529. Finally, we do not find evidence for extra lensing signatures such as the arrival of additional lensed images, type-II image dephasing, or microlensing. Therefore, we conclude it is unlikely for GW230529 to be a strongly gravitationally lensed binary neutron star signal.

gr-qc↗