arXiv subjects

Michael Zevin

Publications and source records attributed to Michael Zevin.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2025

Exploring the evolution of gravitational-wave emitters with efficient emulation: Constraining the origins of binary black holes using normalising flows

Binary population synthesis simulations allow detailed modelling of gravitational-wave sources from a variety of formation channels. These population models can be compared to the observed catalogue of merging binaries to infer the uncertain astrophysical input parameters describing binary formation and evolution, as well as relative rates between various formation pathways. However, it is computationally infeasible to run population synthesis simulations for all variations of uncertain input physics. We demonstrate the use of normalising flows to emulate population synthesis results and interpolate between astrophysical input parameters. Using current gravitational-wave observations of binary black holes, we use our trained normalising flows to infer branching ratios between multiple formation channels, and simultaneously infer common-envelope efficiency and natal spins across a continuous parameter range. Given our set of formation channel models, we infer the natal spin to be $0.04^{+0.04}_{-0.01}$, and the common-envelope efficiency to be $>3.7$ at 90% credibility, with the majority of underlying mergers coming from the common-envelope channel. Our framework allows us to measure population synthesis inputs where we do not have simulations, and better constrain the astrophysics underlying current gravitational-wave populations.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2024

Inferring Interference: Identifying a Perturbing Tertiary with Eccentric Gravitational Wave Burst Timing

[Abridged] Binary black holes may form and merge dynamically. These binaries are likely to become bound with high eccentricities, resulting in a burst of gravitational radiation at their point of closest approach. When such a binary is perturbed by a third body, the evolution of the orbit is affected, and gravitational-wave burst times are altered. The bursts times therefore encode information about the tertiary. In order to extract this information, we require a prescription for the relationship between the tertiary properties and the gravitational-wave burst times. In this paper, we demonstrate a toy model for the burst times of a secular three-body system. We show how Bayesian inference can be employed to deduce the tertiary properties when the bursts are detected by next-generation ground-based gravitational-wave detectors. We study the bursts from an eccentric binary with a total mass of $60$~M$_\odot$ orbiting an $6 \times 10^{8}$~M$_\odot$ supermassive black hole. When we assume no knowledge of the eccentric binary, we are unable to tightly constrain the existence or properties of the tertiary, and we recover biased posterior probability distributions for the parameters of the eccentric binary. However, when the properties of the binary are already well-known -- as is likely if the late inspiral and merger are also detected -- we are able to more accurately infer the mass of the perturber, $m_3$, and its distance from the binary, $R$. When we assume measurement precision on the binary parameters consistent with expectations for next-generation gravitational-wave detectors, we can be greater than $90\%$ confident that the binary is perturbed. [...]

gr-qc↗

arXiv2024

What is the nature of GW230529? An exploration of the gravitational lensing hypothesis

On the 29th of May 2023, the LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA Collaboration observed a compact binary coalescence event consistent with a neutron star-black hole merger, though the heavier object of mass 2.5-4.5 $M_\odot$ would fall into the purported lower mass gap. An alternative explanation for apparent observations of events in this mass range has been suggested as strongly gravitationally lensed binary neutron stars. In this scenario, magnification would lead to the source appearing closer and heavier than it really is. Here, we investigate the chances and possible consequences for the GW230529 event to be gravitationally lensed. We find this would require high magnifications and we obtain low rates for observing such an event, with a relative fraction of lensed versus unlensed observed events of $2 \times 10^{-3}$ at most. When comparing the lensed and unlensed hypotheses accounting for the latest rates and population model, we find a 1/58 chance of lensing, disfavoring this option. Moreover, when the magnification is assumed to be strong enough to bring the mass of the heavier binary component below the standard limits on neutron star masses, we find high probability for the lighter object to have a sub-solar mass, making the binary even more exotic than a mass-gap neutron star-black hole system. Even when the secondary is not sub-solar, its tidal deformability would likely be measurable, which is not the case for GW230529. Finally, we do not find evidence for extra lensing signatures such as the arrival of additional lensed images, type-II image dephasing, or microlensing. Therefore, we conclude it is unlikely for GW230529 to be a strongly gravitationally lensed binary neutron star signal.

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arXiv2024

Things that might go bump in the night: Assessing structure in the binary black hole mass spectrum

Several features in the mass spectrum of merging binary black holes (BBHs) have been identified using data from the Third Gravitational Wave Transient Catalog (GWTC-3). These features are of particular interest as they may encode the uncertain mechanism of BBH formation. We assess if the features are statistically significant or the result of Poisson noise due to the finite number of observed events. We simulate catalogs of BBHs whose underlying distribution does not have the features of interest, apply the analysis previously performed on GWTC-3, and determine how often such features are spuriously found. We find that one of the features found in GWTC-3, the peak at $\sim35\,M_{\odot}$, cannot be explained by Poisson noise alone: peaks as significant occur in $1.7\%$ of catalogs generated from a featureless population. This peak is therefore likely to be of astrophysical origin. The data is suggestive of an additional significant peak at $\sim10\,M_{\odot}$, though the exact location of this feature is not resolvable with current observations. Additional structure beyond a power law, such as the purported dip at $\sim14\,M_{\odot}$, can be explained by Poisson noise. We also provide a publicly-available package, \texttt{GWMockCat}, that creates simulated catalogs of BBH events with correlated measurement uncertainty and selection effects according to user-specified underlying distributions and detector sensitivities.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2024

No need to know: astrophysics-free gravitational-wave cosmology

Gravitational waves (GWs) from merging compact objects encode direct information about the luminosity distance to the binary. When paired with a redshift measurement, this enables standard-siren cosmology: a Hubble diagram can be constructed to directly probe the Universe's expansion. This can be done in the absence of electromagnetic measurements as features in the mass distribution of GW sources provide self-calibrating redshift measurements without the need for a definite or probabilistic host galaxy association. This ``spectral siren'' technique has thus far only been applied with simple parametric representations of the mass distribution, and theoretical predictions for features in the mass distribution are commonly presumed to be fundamental to the measurement. However, the use of an inaccurate representation leads to biases in the cosmological inference, an acute problem given the current theoretical uncertainties in the population. Here, we demonstrate that spectral sirens can accurately infer cosmological parameters without prior assumptions for the shape of the mass distribution. We apply a flexible, non-parametric model for the mass distribution of compact binaries to a simulated catalog of 1,000 GW events, consistent with expectations for the next LVK observing run. We find that, despite our model's flexibility, both the source mass model and cosmological parameters are correctly reconstructed. We predict a $5.8\%$ measurement of $H_0$, keeping all other cosmological parameters fixed, and a $6.4\%$ measurement of $H(z=0.9)$ when fitting for multiple cosmological parameters ($1σ$ uncertainties). This astrophysically-agnostic spectral siren technique will be essential to arrive at precise and unbiased cosmological constraints from GW source populations.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2024

Consistent eccentricities for gravitational wave astronomy: Resolving discrepancies between astrophysical simulations and waveform models

Detecting imprints of orbital eccentricity in GW signals promises to shed light on the formation mechanisms of binary black holes. To constrain formation mechanisms, distributions of eccentricity derived from numerical simulations of astrophysical formation channels are compared to the estimates of eccentricity inferred from GW signals. We report that the definition of eccentricity typically used in astrophysical simulations is inconsistent with the one used while modeling GW signals, with the differences mainly arising due to the choice of reference frequency used in both cases. We also posit a prescription for calculating eccentricity from astrophysical simulations by evolving ordinary differential equations obtained from post-Newtonian theory, and using the dominant ($\ell = m =2$) mode's frequency as the reference frequency; this ensures consistency in the definitions. On comparing the existing eccentricities of binaries present in the Cluster Monte Carlo catalog of globular cluster simulations with the eccentricities calculated using the prescription presented here, we find a significant discrepancy at $e \gtrsim 0.2$; this discrepancy becomes worse with increasing eccentricity. We note the implications this discrepancy has for existing studies, and recommend that care be taken when comparing data-driven constraints on eccentricity to expectations from astrophysical formation channels.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2024

Spin Doctors: How to diagnose a hierarchical merger origin

Gravitational-wave observations provide the unique opportunity of studying black hole formation channels and histories -- but only if we can identify their origin. One such formation mechanism is the dynamical synthesis of black hole binaries in dense stellar systems. Given the expected isotropic distribution of component spins of binary black hole in gas-free dynamical environments, the presence of anti-aligned or in-plane spins with respect to the orbital angular momentum is considered a tell-tale sign of a merger's dynamical origin. Even in the scenario where birth spins of black holes are low, hierarchical mergers attain large component spins due to the orbital angular momentum of the prior merger. However, measuring such spin configurations is difficult. Here, we quantify the efficacy of the spin parameters encoding aligned-spin ($χ_{\rm eff}$) and in-plane spin ($χ_{\rm p}$) at classifying such hierarchical systems. Using Monte Carlo cluster simulations to generate a realistic distribution of hierarchical merger parameters from globular clusters, we can infer mergers' $χ_{\rm eff}$ and $χ_{rm p}$. The cluster populations are simulated using Advanced LIGO-Virgo sensitivity during the detector network's third observing period and projections for design sensitivity. Using a "likelihood-ratio"-based statistic, we find that $\sim2\%$ of the recovered population by the current gravitational-wave detector network has a statistically significant $χ_{\rm p}$ measurement, whereas no $χ_{\rm eff}$ measurement was capable of confidently determining a system to be anti-aligned with the orbital angular momentum at current detector sensitivities. These results indicate that measuring spin-precession through $χ_{\rm p}$ is a more detectable signature of a hierarchical mergers and dynamical formation than anti-aligned spins.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2024

Gravity Spy: Lessons Learned and a Path Forward

The Gravity Spy project aims to uncover the origins of glitches, transient bursts of noise that hamper analysis of gravitational-wave data. By using both the work of citizen-science volunteers and machine-learning algorithms, the Gravity Spy project enables reliable classification of glitches. Citizen science and machine learning are intrinsically coupled within the Gravity Spy framework, with machine-learning classifications providing a rapid first-pass classification of the dataset and enabling tiered volunteer training, and volunteer-based classifications verifying the machine classifications, bolstering the machine-learning training set and identifying new morphological classes of glitches. These classifications are now routinely used in studies characterizing the performance of the LIGO gravitational-wave detectors. Providing the volunteers with a training framework that teaches them to classify a wide range of glitches, as well as additional tools to aid their investigations of interesting glitches, empowers them to make discoveries of new classes of glitches. This demonstrates that, when giving suitable support, volunteers can go beyond simple classification tasks to identify new features in data at a level comparable to domain experts. The Gravity Spy project is now providing volunteers with more complicated data that includes auxiliary monitors of the detector to identify the root cause of glitches.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2023

What You Don't Know Can Hurt You: Use and Abuse of Astrophysical Models in Gravitational-wave Population Analyses

One of the goals of gravitational-wave astrophysics is to infer the number and properties of the formation channels of binary black holes (BBHs); to do so, one must be able to connect various models with the data. We explore benefits and potential issues with analyses using models informed by population synthesis. We consider 5 possible formation channels of BBHs, as in Zevin et al. (2021b). First, we confirm with the GWTC-3 catalog what Zevin et al. (2021b) found in the GWTC-2 catalog, i.e. that the data are not consistent with the totality of observed BBHs forming in any single channel. Next, using simulated detections, we show that the uncertainties in the estimation of the branching ratios can shrink by up to a factor of $\sim 1.7$ as the catalog size increases from $50$ to $250$, within the expected number of BBH detections in LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA's fourth observing run. Finally, we show that this type of analysis is prone to significant biases. By simulating universes where all sources originate from a single channel, we show that the influence of the Bayesian prior can make it challenging to conclude that one channel produces all signals. Furthermore, by simulating universes where all 5 channels contribute but only a subset of channels are used in the analysis, we show that biases in the branching ratios can be as large as $\sim 50\%$ with $250$ detections. This suggests that caution should be used when interpreting the results of analyses based on strongly modeled astrophysical sub-populations.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2023

A Population of Short-duration Gamma-ray Bursts with Dwarf Host Galaxies

We present a population of 11 of the faintest ($> 25.5$ AB mag) short gamma-ray burst (GRB) host galaxies. We model their sparse available observations using the stellar population inference code Prospector-$β$ and develop a novel implementation to incorporate the galaxy mass-radius relation. Assuming these hosts are randomly drawn from the galaxy population and conditioning this draw on their observed flux and size in few photometric bands, we determine that these hosts have dwarf galaxy stellar masses of $7.0\lesssim\log(M_*/M_\odot)\lesssim9.1$. This is striking as only $14\%$ of short GRB hosts with previous inferred stellar masses had $M_* \lesssim 10^{9}\,M_{\odot}$. We further show these short GRBs have smaller physical and host-normalized offsets than the rest of the population, suggesting that the majority of their neutron star (NS) merger progenitors were retained within their hosts. The presumably shallow potentials of these hosts translate to small escape velocities of $\sim5.5-80$ km/s, indicative of either low post-supernova systemic velocities or short inspiral times. While short GRBs with identified dwarf host galaxies now comprise $\approx 14\%$ of the total Swift-detected population, a number are likely missing in the current population, as larger systemic velocities (observed from Galactic NS population) would result in highly offset short GRBs and less secure host associations. However, the revelation of a population of short GRBs retained in low-mass host galaxies offers a natural explanation for observed $r$-process enrichment via NS mergers in Local Group dwarf galaxies, and has implications for gravitational wave follow-up strategies.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2023

Observational evidence for cosmological coupling of black holes and its implications for an astrophysical source of dark energy

Observations have found black holes spanning ten orders of magnitude in mass across most of cosmic history. The Kerr black hole solution is however provisional as its behavior at infinity is incompatible with an expanding universe. Black hole models with realistic behavior at infinity predict that the gravitating mass of a black hole can increase with the expansion of the universe independently of accretion or mergers, in a manner that depends on the black hole's interior solution. We test this prediction by considering the growth of supermassive black holes in elliptical galaxies over $0<z\lesssim2.5$. We find evidence for cosmologically coupled mass growth among these black holes, with zero cosmological coupling excluded at 99.98% confidence. The redshift dependence of the mass growth implies that, at $z\lesssim7$, black holes contribute an effectively constant cosmological energy density to Friedmann's equations. The continuity equation then requires that black holes contribute cosmologically as vacuum energy. We further show that black hole production from the cosmic star formation history gives the value of $Ω_Λ$ measured by Planck while being consistent with constraints from massive compact halo objects. We thus propose that stellar remnant black holes are the astrophysical origin of dark energy, explaining the onset of accelerating expansion at $z \sim 0.7$.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2023

The Missing Link Between Black Holes in High-Mass X-ray Binaries and Gravitational-Wave Sources: Observational Selection Effects

There are few observed high-mass X-ray binaries (HMXBs) that harbor massive black holes, and none are likely to result in a binary black hole (BBH) that merges within a Hubble time; however, we know that massive merging BBHs exist from gravitational-wave observations. We investigate the role that X-ray and gravitational-wave observational selection effects play in determining the properties of their respective detected binary populations. We find that, as a result of selection effects, detectable HMXBs and detectable BBHs form at different redshifts and metallicities, with detectable HMXBs forming at much lower redshifts and higher metallicities than detectable BBHs. We also find disparities in the mass distributions of these populations, with detectable merging BBH progenitors pulling to higher component masses relative to the full detectable HMXB population. Fewer than $3\%$ of detectable HMXBs host black holes $> 35M_{\odot}$ in our simulated populations. Furthermore, we find the probability that a detectable HMXB will merge as a BBH system within a Hubble time is $\simeq 0.6\%$. Thus, it is unsurprising that no currently observed HMXB is predicted to form a merging BBH with high probability.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2022

A Preferential Growth Channel for Supermassive Black Holes in Elliptical Galaxies at z<2

The assembly of stellar and supermassive black hole (SMBH) mass in elliptical galaxies since $z\sim1$ can help to diagnose the origins of locally-observed correlations between SMBH mass and stellar mass. We therefore construct three samples of elliptical galaxies, one at $z\sim0$ and two at $0.7\lesssim z \lesssim2.5$, and quantify their relative positions in the $M_{BH}-M_*$ plane. Using a Bayesian analysis framework, we find evidence for translational offsets in both stellar mass and SMBH mass between the local sample and both higher redshift samples. The offsets in stellar mass are small, and consistent with measurement bias, but the offsets in SMBH mass are much larger, reaching a factor of seven between $z\sim1$ and $z\sim0$. The magnitude of the SMBH offset may also depend on redshift, reaching a factor of $\sim20$ at $z\sim 2$. The result is robust against variation in the high and low redshift samples and changes in the analysis approach. The magnitude and redshift evolution of the offset are challenging to explain in terms of selection and measurement biases. We conclude that either there is a physical mechanism that preferentially grows SMBHs in elliptical galaxies at $z\lesssim 2$, or that selection and measurement biases are both underestimated, and depend on redshift.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2022

Short GRB Host Galaxies. II. A Legacy Sample of Redshifts, Stellar Population Properties, and Implications for their Neutron Star Merger Origins

We present the stellar population properties of 69 short gamma-ray burst (GRB) host galaxies, representing the largest uniformly-modeled sample to-date. Using the Prospector stellar population inference code, we jointly fit photometry and/or spectroscopy of each host galaxy. We find a population median redshift of $z=0.64^{+0.83}_{-0.32}$ ($68\%$ confidence), including 10 new or revised photometric redshifts at $z\gtrsim1$. We further find a median mass-weighted age of $t_m=0.8^{+2.71}_{-0.53}$Gyr, stellar mass of $\log(M_*/M_\odot)=9.69^{+0.75}_{-0.65}$, star formation rate of SFR=$1.44^{+9.37}_{-1.35}M_\odot$yr$^{-1}$, stellar metallicity of $\log(Z_*/Z_\odot)=-0.38^{+0.44}_{-0.42}$, and dust attenuation of $A_V=0.43^{+0.85}_{-0.36}$~mag (68\% confidence). Overall, the majority of short GRB hosts are star-forming ($\approx84\%$), with small fractions that are either transitioning ($\approx6\%$) or quiescent ($\approx10\%$); however, we observe a much larger fraction ($\approx40\%$) of quiescent and transitioning hosts at $z\lesssim0.25$, commensurate with galaxy evolution. We find that short GRB hosts populate the star-forming main sequence of normal field galaxies, but do not include as many high-mass galaxies, implying that their binary neutron star (BNS) merger progenitors are dependent on a combination of host star formation and stellar mass. The distribution of ages and redshifts implies a broad delay-time distribution, with a fast-merging channel at $z>1$ and a decreased BNS formation efficiency at lower redshifts. If short GRB hosts are representative of BNS merger hosts within the horizon of current gravitational wave detectors, these results can inform future searches for electromagnetic counterparts. All of the data and modeling products are available on the BRIGHT website.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2022

Observational Inference on the Delay Time Distribution of Short Gamma-ray Bursts

The delay time distribution of neutron star mergers provides critical insights into binary evolution processes and the merger rate evolution of compact object binaries. However, current observational constraints on this delay time distribution rely on the small sample of Galactic double neutron stars (with uncertain selection effects), a single multimessenger gravitational wave event, and indirect evidence of neutron star mergers based on $r$-process enrichment. We use a sample of 68 host galaxies of short gamma-ray bursts to place novel constraints on the delay time distribution and leverage this result to infer the merger rate evolution of compact object binaries containing neutron stars. We recover a power-law slope of $α= -1.83^{+0.35}_{-0.39}$ (median and 90% credible interval) with $α< -1.31$ at 99% credibility, a minimum delay time of $t_\mathrm{min} = 184^{+67}_{-79}~\mathrm{Myr}$ with $t_\mathrm{min} > 72~\mathrm{Myr}$ at 99% credibility, and a maximum delay time constrained to $t_\mathrm{max} > 7.95~\mathrm{Gyr}$ at 99% credibility. We find these constraints to be broadly consistent with theoretical expectations, although our recovered power-law slope is substantially steeper than the conventional value of $α= -1$, and our minimum delay time is larger than the typically assumed value of $10~\mathrm{Myr}$. Pairing this cosmological probe of the fate of compact object binary systems with the Galactic population of double neutron stars will be crucial for understanding the unique selection effects governing both of these populations. In addition to probing a significantly larger redshift regime of neutron star mergers than possible with current gravitational wave detectors, complementing our results with future multimessenger gravitational wave events will also help determine if short gamma-ray bursts ubiquitously result from compact object binary mergers.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2022

Intermediate-mass Black Holes on the Run from Young Star Clusters

The existence of black holes (BHs) with masses in the range between stellar remnants and supermassive BHs has only recently become unambiguously established. GW190521, a gravitational wave signal detected by the LIGO/Virgo Collaboration, provides the first direct evidence for the existence of such intermediate-mass BHs (IMBHs). This event sparked and continues to fuel discussion on the possible formation channels for such massive BHs. As the detection revealed, IMBHs can form via binary mergers of BHs in the "upper mass gap" ($\approx40 -120\,M_{\odot}$). Alternatively, IMBHs may form via the collapse of a very massive star formed through stellar collisions and mergers in dense star clusters. In this study, we explore the formation of IMBHs with masses between $120$ and $500\,M_{\odot}$ in young, massive star clusters using state-of-the-art Cluster Monte Carlo ($\texttt{CMC}$) models. We examine the evolution of IMBHs throughout their dynamical lifetimes, ending with their ejection from the parent cluster due to gravitational radiation recoil from BH mergers, or dynamical recoil kicks from few-body scattering encounters. We find that $ \textit{all}$ of the IMBHs in our models are ejected from the host cluster within the first $\sim 500$ Myr, indicating a low retention probability of IMBHs in this mass range for globular clusters today. We estimate the peak IMBH merger rate to be $\mathcal{R} \approx 2 \, \rm{Gpc}^{-3}\,\rm{yr}^{-1}$ at redshift $z \approx 2$.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2022

Avoiding a Cluster Catastrophe: Retention Efficiency and the Binary Black Hole Mass Spectrum

The population of binary black hole mergers identified through gravitational waves has uncovered unexpected features in the intrinsic properties of black holes in the universe. One particularly surprising and exciting result is the possible existence of black holes in the pair-instability mass gap, $\sim50-120~M_\odot$. Dense stellar environments can populate this region of mass space through hierarchical mergers, with the retention efficiency of black hole merger products strongly dependent on the escape velocity of the host environment. We use simple toy models to represent hierarchical merger scenarios in various dynamical environments. We find that hierarchical mergers in environments with high escape velocities $(\gtrsim300~\mathrm{km\,s}^{-1})$ are efficiently retained. If such environments dominate the binary black hole merger rate, this would lead to an abundance of high-mass mergers that is potentially incompatible with the empirical mass spectrum from the current catalog of binary black hole mergers. Models that efficiently generate hierarchical mergers, and contribute significantly to the observed population, must therefore be tuned to avoid a "cluster catastrophe" of overproducing binary black hole mergers within and above the pair-instability mass gap.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2022

POSYDON: A General-Purpose Population Synthesis Code with Detailed Binary-Evolution Simulations

Most massive stars are members of a binary or a higher-order stellar systems, where the presence of a binary companion can decisively alter their evolution via binary interactions. Interacting binaries are also important astrophysical laboratories for the study of compact objects. Binary population synthesis studies have been used extensively over the last two decades to interpret observations of compact-object binaries and to decipher the physical processes that lead to their formation. Here, we present POSYDON, a novel, binary population synthesis code that incorporates full stellar-structure and binary-evolution modeling, using the MESA code, throughout the whole evolution of the binaries. The use of POSYDON enables the self-consistent treatment of physical processes in stellar and binary evolution, including: realistic mass-transfer calculations and assessment of stability, internal angular-momentum transport and tides, stellar core sizes, mass-transfer rates and orbital periods. This paper describes the detailed methodology and implementation of POSYDON, including the assumed physics of stellar- and binary-evolution, the extensive grids of detailed single- and binary-star models, the post-processing, classification and interpolation methods we developed for use with the grids, and the treatment of evolutionary phases that are not based on pre-calculated grids. The first version of POSYDON targets binaries with massive primary stars (potential progenitors of neutron stars or black holes) at solar metallicity.

astro-ph.SR↗