arXiv subjects

Michaela Szölgyenyi

Publications and source records attributed to Michaela Szölgyenyi.

22 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2016

Optimal Control of an Energy Storage Facility Under a Changing Economic Environment and Partial Information

In this paper we consider an energy storage optimization problem in finite time in a model with partial information that allows for a changing economic environment. The state process consists of the storage level controlled by the storage manager and the energy price process, which is a diffusion process the drift of which is assumed to be unobservable. We apply filtering theory to find an alternative state process which is adapted to our observation filtration. For this alternative state process we derive the associated Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation and solve the optimization problem numerically. This results in a candidate for the optimal policy for which it is a-priori not clear whether the controlled state process exists. Hence, we prove an existence and uniqueness result for a class of time-inhomogeneous stochastic differential equations with discontinuous drift and singular diffusion coefficient. Finally, we apply our result to prove admissibility of the candidate optimal control.

q-fin.MF↗

arXiv2016

Bayesian Dividend Optimization and Finite Time Ruin Probabilities

We consider the valuation problem of an (insurance) company under partial information. Therefore we use the concept of maximizing discounted future dividend payments. The firm value process is described by a diffusion model with constant and observable volatility and constant but unknown drift parameter. For transforming the problem to a problem with complete information, we derive a suitable filter. The optimal value function is characterized as the unique viscosity solution of the associated Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation. We state a numerical procedure for approximating both the optimal dividend strategy and the corresponding value function. Furthermore, threshold strategies are discussed in some detail. Finally, we calculate the probability of ruin in the uncontrolled and controlled situation.

q-fin.MF↗

arXiv2016

Dividend maximization in a hidden Markov switching model

In this paper we study the valuation problem of an insurance company by maximizing the expected discounted future dividend payments in a model with partial information that allows for a changing economic environment. The surplus process is modeled as a Brownian motion with drift. This drift depends on an underlying Markov chain the current state of which is assumed to be unobservable. The different states of the Markov chain thereby represent different phases of the economy. We apply results from filtering theory to overcome uncertainty and then we give an analytic characterization of the optimal value function. Finally, we present a numerical study covering various scenarios to get a clear picture of how dividends should be paid out.

q-fin.MF↗

arXiv2015

A Numerical Method for SDEs with Discontinuous Drift

In this paper we introduce a transformation technique, which can on the one hand be used to prove existence and uniqueness for a class of SDEs with discontinuous drift coefficient. One the other hand we present a numerical method based on transforming the Euler-Maruyama scheme for such a class of SDEs. We prove convergence of order $1/2$. Finally, we present numerical examples.

math.PR↗