Searcharxiv⌕ Search

arXiv subjects

Michail A. Makridis

Publications and source records attributed to Michail A. Makridis.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
arXiv2026

Revisiting mesoscopic traffic flow simulation in SUMO: Limitations, analysis, and an alternative

Mesoscopic traffic flow models combines the merits of both macroscopic and microscopic models by capturing individual vehicle behavior in great detail and remaining the computational efficiency. At the time of this study, the mesoscopic model proposed by Eissfeldt (2004) is used in Simulation of Urban MObility (SUMO). The movement of vehicles is governed by dynamic headways between edges. However, the model does not fully comply with the principle of the Lighthill-Whitham-Richards (LWR) model. Several problems are identified, including the incomplete consideration of queue dynamics and the limited implementation of backward traveling spaces. Two case study scenarios demonstrate that the problems lead to unrealistic onset and recovery pattern of congestion. The magnitude of congestion is generally underestimated with this model. To address these drawbacks, a proper mesoscopic discrete-time implementation of link transmission model, which follows the LWR principle, is proposed. By explicitly incorporating backward traveling spaces to capture queue spillback phenomena, the proposed model provides a more precise representation of congestion dynamics. The link density outputs are consistent with the kinematic wave theory and the microscopic traffic simulation in SUMO, thus verifying its theoretical accuracy.

eess.SY↗
arXiv2026

Metropolis-Scale Resilient and Trustworthy Traffic Flow Inference Using Multi-Source Data

Inferring network-wide traffic states from sparse observations with high accuracy and trustworthy uncertainty quantification is essential for intelligent transportation systems, yet it remains challenging due to the underdetermined nature of the problem, multifaceted disturbances in sensing networks, and the inherent conflicts among multiple inference sub-tasks when modeled jointly. We propose the Task-Aware Attentive Neural Process (TA-ANP), a unified probabilistic framework for resilient and trustworthy global traffic state inference (GTSI) by fusing floating car data (FCD) with sparse fixed-detector measurements. By casting GTSI as a stochastic process, TA-ANP leverages the meta-learning properties of neural processes to adapt rapidly to changes in sensing configurations without retraining. A task-aware multi-query attention module with distinct spatiotemporal inductive biases is introduced to jointly handle three GTSI sub-tasks, while mitigating cross-task interference. For uncertainty quantification, we combine neural processes with Monte Carlo Dropout to capture both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty. To support metropolis-scale evaluation, we construct the Metropolitan Multi-Source Traffic Dataset (MMTD), integrating fixed-loop sensor measurements, FCD statistics, and OpenStreetMap road-network data over an urban network of 2,371 road segments. Experiments on MMTD show that TA-ANP achieves state-of-the-art performance across all sub-tasks under deterministic and probabilistic metrics. The resulting well-calibrated uncertainties enable more efficient fixed-sensor placement with fewer sensor deployments. Under a Damage-Repair-Addition sensing lifecycle, TA-ANP demonstrates superior resilience in terms of disturbance absorption, performance recovery, and adaptability to unseen sensing configurations.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

The fragile nature of road transportation networks

Major cities worldwide experience problems with the performance of their road transportation networks, and the continuous increase in traffic demand presents a substantial challenge to the optimal operation of urban road networks and the efficiency of traffic control strategies. The operation of transportation systems is widely considered to display fragile property, i.e., the loss in performance increases exponentially with the linearly growing magnitude of disruptions. Meanwhile, the risk engineering community is embracing the novel concept of antifragility, enabling systems to learn from past events and exhibit improved performance under disruptions of previously unseen magnitudes. In this study, based on established traffic flow theory knowledge, namely the Macroscopic Fundamental Diagram (MFD), we first conduct a rigorous mathematical analysis to theoretically prove the fragile nature of road transportation networks. Subsequently, we propose a skewness-based indicator that can be readily applied to cross-compare the degree of fragility for different networks solely dependent on the MFD-related parameters. Finally, we implement a numerical simulation calibrated with real-world network data to bridge the gap between the theoretical proof and the practical operations, with results showing the reinforcing effect of higher-order statistics and stochasticity on the fragility of the networks. This work aims to demonstrate the fragile nature of road transportation networks and guide researchers towards adopting the methods of antifragile design for future networks and traffic control strategies.

eess.SY↗
arXiv2026

ARA: Agentic Reproducibility Assessment For Scalable Support Of Scientific Peer-Review

Scientific peer review increasingly struggles to assess reproducibility at the scale and complexity of modern research output. Evaluating reproducibility requires reconstructing experimental dependencies, methodological choices, data flows, and result-generating procedures, which often exceeds what human reviewers can provide. Agentic Reproducibility Assessment (ARA) formalizes reproducibility assessment as a structured reasoning task over scientific documents. Given a paper, ARA extracts a directed workflow graph linking sources, methods, experiments, and outputs, then evaluates its reconstructability using structural and content-based scores for reproducibility assessments. Experiments on 213 ReScience C articles - the largest cross-domain benchmark of human-validated computational reproducibility studies considered to date - demonstrate ARA's generalizability and consistent workflow reconstruction and assessment across LLMs, model temperatures, and scientific domains. ARA achieves ~61% accuracy on three benchmarks, and the highest accuracy reported on ReproBench (60.71% vs. 36.84%) and GoldStandardDB (61.68% vs. 43.56%), highlighting its potential to complement human review at scale and enabling next-generation peer review. Code and Data available: https://github.com/AndresLaverdeMarin/agentic_reproducibility_assessment.

cs.DL↗
arXiv2026

sumoITScontrol: Traffic Controller Collection for SUMO Traffic Simulations

Reliable benchmarking is essential for progress in intelligent traffic control research. While microscopic traffic simulators such as SUMO enable detailed modelling of individual vehicle interactions, many published control studies still rely on single-run evaluations and project-specific baseline implementations, limiting reproducibility and comparability. This paper presents sumoITScontrol, an open-source and extensible Python framework providing a curated collection of widely used traffic controllers implemented for SUMO via the TraCI interface. The framework includes established methods for both urban and freeway traffic management, such as Max Pressure signal control, SCOOT/SCATS-inspired adaptive strategies, and ramp metering algorithms including ALINEA, HERO-inspired, and METALINE. Beyond providing implementations, the paper emphasises methodological best-practices for controller evaluation in stochastic microscopic environments. Through systematic calibration and replicated simulation experiments, we demonstrate the substantial impact of stochastic variability on performance metrics and highlight the necessity of variance-aware reporting and statistical hypothesis testing. By combining standardised controller implementations with reproducibility-oriented evaluation guidelines, sumoITScontrol aims to improve methodological transparency, enable fair benchmarking of novel approaches, and strengthen experimental standards within the SUMO and intelligent transportation systems research communities. Source Code on project's GitHub: https://github.com/DerKevinRiehl/sumoITScontrol/.

eess.SY↗
arXiv2026

sumo3Dviz: A three dimensional traffic visualisation

Traffic microsimulation software such as SUMO generate rich spatio-temporal data describing individual vehicle movements, interactions, and support the development of control strategies. While numerical outputs and 2D visualisations are sufficient for many technical analyses, they are often inadequate for applications that require intuitive interpretation, effective communication, or human-centred evaluation. In particular, user studies in mobility psychology, acceptance research, and virtual experience stated-preference experiments require realistic visualisations that reflect how traffic scenarios are perceived from a human perspective. This paper introduces sumo3Dviz, a lightweight, open-source 3D visualisation pipeline for SUMO traffic simulations. It converts standard SUMO simulation outputs, such as vehicle trajectories and signal states, into high-quality 3D renderings using a Python-based framework. In contrast to heavyweight game-engine-based approaches or tightly coupled co-simulation frameworks, sumo3Dviz is designed to be simple, scriptable, and reproducible. The tool is installable through the pip package manager, runs across operating systems, and works independently of any proprietary software or licenses. sumo3Dviz supports both external camera views and first-person perspectives, enabling cinematic overviews as well as driver-level experiences. The rendering process is optimized for batch video generation, making it suitable for large-scale scenario visualisation, educational demonstrations, and automated experiment pipelines. A key technical challenge addressed by the tool is trajectory interpolation and orientation smoothing, enabling visually coherent motion from discrete simulation outputs. Source Code on project's GitHub page: https://github.com/DerKevinRiehl/sumo3dviz/.

cs.GR↗
arXiv2026

MoGERNN: An Inductive Traffic Predictor for Unobserved Locations

Given a partially observed road network, how can we predict the traffic state of interested unobserved locations? Traffic prediction is crucial for advanced traffic management systems, with deep learning approaches showing exceptional performance. However, most existing approaches assume sensors are deployed at all locations of interest, which is impractical due to financial constraints. Furthermore, these methods are typically fragile to structural changes in sensing networks, which require costly retraining even for minor changes in sensor configuration. To address these challenges, we propose MoGERNN, an inductive spatio-temporal graph model with two key components: (i) a Mixture of Graph Experts (MoGE) with sparse gating mechanisms that dynamically route nodes to specialized graph aggregators, capturing heterogeneous spatial dependencies efficiently; (ii) a graph encoder-decoder architecture that leverages these embeddings to capture both spatial and temporal dependencies for comprehensive traffic state prediction. Experiments on two real-world datasets show MoGERNN consistently outperforms baseline methods for both observed and unobserved locations. MoGERNN can accurately predict congestion evolution even in areas without sensors, offering valuable information for traffic management. Moreover, MoGERNN is adaptable to the changes of sensor network, maintaining competitive performance even compared to its retrained counterpart. Tests performed with different numbers of available sensors confirm its consistent superiority, and ablation studies validate the effectiveness of its key modules. The code of this work is publicly available at: https://github.com/ZJU-TSELab/MoGERNN.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

Network-wide Freeway Traffic Estimation Using Sparse Sensor Data: A Dirichlet Graph Auto-Encoder Approach

Network-wide Traffic State Estimation (TSE), which aims to infer a complete image of network traffic states with sparsely deployed sensors, plays a vital role in intelligent transportation systems. With the development of data-driven methods, traffic dynamics modeling has advanced significantly. However, TSE poses fundamental challenges for data-driven approaches, since historical patterns cannot be learned locally at sensor-free segments. Although graph representation learning shows promise in estimating states at locations without sensors, existing methods typically handle unobserved locations by filling them with zeros, introducing bias to the sensitive graph message propagation. The recently proposed Dirichlet Energy-based Feature Propagation (DEFP) method achieves State-Of-The-Art (SOTA) performance in unobserved node classification by eliminating the need for zero-filling. However, applying it to TSE faces three key challenges: inability to handle directed traffic networks, strong assumptions in traffic spatial correlation modeling, and overlooking distinct propagation rules of different patterns (e.g., congestion and free flow). We propose DGAE, a novel inductive graph representation model that addresses these challenges through theoretically derived DEFP for Directed graph (DEFP4D), enhanced spatial representation learning via DEFP4D-guided latent space encoding, and physics-guided propagation mechanisms that separately handle congested and free-flow patterns. Experiments on three traffic datasets demonstrate that DGAE outperforms existing SOTA methods and exhibits strong cross-city transferability. Furthermore, DEFP4D can serve as a standalone lightweight solution, showing superior performance under extremely sparse sensor conditions. The code of this work is publicly available at: https://github.com/ZJU-TSELab/DGAE.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

Distributive Perimetral Queue Balancing Mechanisms: Towards Equitable Urban Traffic Gating and Fair Perimeter Control

Perimeter control is an effective urban traffic management strategy that regulates inflow to congested urban regions using aggregate network dynamics. While existing approaches primarily optimize system-level efficiency, such as total travel time or network throughput, they often overlook equity considerations, leading to uneven delay distributions across entry points. This work integrates fairness objectives into perimeter control design through explicit queue balancing mechanisms.A large-scale, microscopic case study of the Financial District in the San Francisco urban network is used to evaluate both performance and implementation challenges. The results demonstrate conventional perimeter control not only reduces total and internal delays but can also improve fairness metrics (Harsanyian, Rawlsian, Utilitarian, Egalitarian). Building on this observation, queue balancing strategies match conventional performance while yielding measurable fairness improvements, especially in heterogeneous demand scenarios, where congestion is unevenly distributed across entry points. The proposed framework contributes toward equitable control design for emerging intelligent transportation systems and higher user acceptance for those.

eess.SY↗
arXiv2026

Karma Mechanisms for Decentralised, Cooperative Multi Agent Path Finding

Multi-Agent Path Finding (MAPF) is a fundamental coordination problem in large-scale robotic and cyber-physical systems, where multiple agents must compute conflict-free trajectories with limited computational and communication resources. While centralised optimal solvers provide guarantees on solution optimality, their exponential computational complexity limits scalability to large-scale systems and real-time applicability. Existing decentralised heuristics are faster, but result in suboptimal outcomes and high cost disparities. This paper proposes a decentralised coordination framework for cooperative MAPF based on Karma mechanisms - artificial, non-tradeable credits that account for agents' past cooperative behaviour and regulate future conflict resolution decisions. The approach formulates conflict resolution as a bilateral negotiation process that enables agents to resolve conflicts through pairwise replanning while promoting long-term fairness under limited communication and without global priority structures. The mechanism is evaluated in a lifelong robotic warehouse multi-agent pickup-and-delivery scenario with kinematic orientation constraints. The results highlight that the Karma mechanism balances replanning effort across agents, reducing disparity in service times without sacrificing overall efficiency. Code: https://github.com/DerKevinRiehl/karma_dmapf

eess.SY↗
arXiv2026

Antifragile perimeter control: Anticipating and gaining from disruptions with reinforcement learning

The optimal operation of transportation systems is often susceptible to unexpected disruptions. Many established control strategies reliant on mathematical models can struggle with real-world disruptions, leading to significant divergence from their anticipated efficiency. This study integrates the cutting-edge concept of antifragility with learning-based traffic control strategies to optimize urban road network operations under disruptions. Antifragile systems not only withstand and recover from stressors but also thrive and enhance performance in the presence of such adversarial events. Incorporating antifragile modules composed of traffic state derivatives and redundancy, a deep reinforcement learning algorithm is developed. Subsequently, it is evaluated in a cordon-shaped transportation network and a case study with real-world data. Promising results highlight that the proposed algorithm provides: (i) superior performance achieving up to 27.6% and 41.9% performance gain over baselines under increasing demand and supply disruptions, (ii) lower distribution skewness under disruptions, demonstrating its relative antifragility against baselines, (iii) effectiveness under limited observability due to real-world data availability constraints, and (iv) the robustness and transferability to be combined with various state-of-the-art RL frameworks. The proposed antifragile methodology is generalizable and holds potential for applications beyond traffic engineering, offering integration into control systems exposed to disruptions across various disciplines.

eess.SY↗
arXiv2026

FairSCOSCA: Fairness At Arterial Signals -- Just Around The Corner

Traffic signal control at intersections, especially in arterial networks, is a key lever for mitigating the growing issue of traffic congestion in cities. Despite the widespread deployment of SCOOTS and SCATS, which prioritize efficiency, fairness has remained largely absent from their design logic, often resulting in unfair outcomes for certain road users, such as excessive waiting times. Fairness however, is a major driver of public acceptance for implementation of new controll systems. Therefore, this work proposes FairSCOSCA, a fairness-enhancing extension to these systems, featuring two novel yet practical design adaptations grounded in multiple normative fairness definitions: (1) green phase optimization incorporating cumulative waiting times, and (2) early termination of underutilized green phases. Those extensions ensure fairer distributions of green times. Evaluated in a calibrated microsimulation case study of the arterial network in Esslingen am Neckar (Germany), FairSCOSCA demonstrates substantial improvements across multiple fairness dimensions (Egalitarian, Rawlsian, Utilitarian, and Harsanyian) without sacrificing traffic efficiency. Compared against Fixed-Cycle, Max-Pressure, and standard SCOOTS/SCATS controllers, FairSCOSCA significantly reduces excessive waiting times, delay inequality and horizontal discrimination between arterial and feeder roads. This work contributes to the growing literature on equitable traffic control by bridging the gap between fairness theory and the practical enhancement of globally deployed signal systems. Open source implementation available on GitHub.

cs.CY↗
arXiv2026

C-EQ-ALINEA: Distributed, Coordinated, and Equitable Ramp Metering Strategy for Sustainable Freeway Operations

Ramp metering is a widely deployed traffic management strategy for improving freeway efficiency, yet conventional approaches often lead to highly uneven delay distributions across on-ramps, undermining user acceptance and long-term sustainability. While existing fairness-aware ramp metering methods can mitigate such disparities, they typically rely on centralized optimization, detailed traffic models, or data-intensive learning frameworks, limiting their real-world applicability, particularly in networks operating legacy ALINEA-based systems. This paper proposes C-EQ-ALINEA, a decentralized, coordinated, and equity-aware extension of the classical ALINEA feedback controller. The approach introduces lightweight information exchange among neighbouring ramps, enabling local coordination that balances congestion impacts without centralized control, additional infrastructure, or complex optimization. C-EQ-ALINEA preserves the simplicity and robustness of ALINEA while explicitly addressing multiple notions of fairness, including Harsanyian, Egalitarian, Rawlsian, and Aristotelian perspectives. The method is evaluated in a calibrated 24-hour microsimulation of Amsterdam's A10 ring road using SUMO. Results demonstrate that C-EQ-ALINEA substantially improves the equity of delay distributions across ramps and users, while maintaining (in several configurations surpassing) the efficiency of established coordinated strategies such as METALINE. These findings indicate that meaningful fairness gains can be achieved through minimal algorithmic extensions to widely deployed controllers, offering a practical and scalable pathway toward sustainable and socially acceptable freeway operations. Open source implementation available on GitHub.

cs.CY↗
arXiv2025

Great GATsBi: Hybrid, Multimodal, Trajectory Forecasting for Bicycles using Anticipation Mechanism

Accurate prediction of road user movement is increasingly required by many applications ranging from advanced driver assistance systems to autonomous driving, and especially crucial for road safety. Even though most traffic accident fatalities account to bicycles, they have received little attention, as previous work focused mainly on pedestrians and motorized vehicles. In this work, we present the Great GATsBi, a domain-knowledge-based, hybrid, multimodal trajectory prediction framework for bicycles. The model incorporates both physics-based modeling (inspired by motorized vehicles) and social-based modeling (inspired by pedestrian movements) to explicitly account for the dual nature of bicycle movement. The social interactions are modeled with a graph attention network, and include decayed historical, but also anticipated, future trajectory data of a bicycles neighborhood, following recent insights from psychological and social studies. The results indicate that the proposed ensemble of physics models -- performing well in the short-term predictions -- and social models -- performing well in the long-term predictions -- exceeds state-of-the-art performance. We also conducted a controlled mass-cycling experiment to demonstrate the framework's performance when forecasting bicycle trajectories and modeling social interactions with road users.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2025

Driving Towards Stability and Efficiency: A Variable Time Gap Strategy for Adaptive Cruise Control

Automated vehicle technologies offer a promising avenue for enhancing traffic efficiency, safety, and energy consumption. Among these, Adaptive Cruise Control (ACC) systems stand out as a prevalent form of automation on today's roads, with their time gap settings holding paramount importance. While decreasing the average time headway tends to enhance traffic capacity, it simultaneously raises concerns regarding safety and string stability. This study introduces a novel variable time gap feedback control policy aimed at striking a balance between maintaining a minimum time gap setting under equilibrium car-following conditions, thereby improving traffic capacity, while ensuring string stability to mitigate disturbances away from the equilibrium flow. Leveraging nonlinear $H_\infty$ control technique, the strategy employs a variable time gap component as the manipulated control signal, complemented by a constant time gap component that predominates during car-following equilibrium. The effectiveness of the proposed scheme is evaluated against its constant time-gap counterpart calibrated using field platoon data from the OpenACC dataset. Through numerical and traffic simulations, our findings illustrate that the proposed algorithm effectively dampens perturbations within vehicle platoons, leading to a more efficient and safer mixed traffic flow.

eess.SY↗
arXiv2024

Platoon Fundamental Diagram estimation can be Markovian: evidence from human- and self-driven vehicle trajectories

We propose a simple and effective method to derive the Fundamental Diagram (FD) from platoon vehicle trajectories. Average traffic state variables are computed using Edie's generalized definitions within time-dependent trapezoidal space-time areas. To obtain a clear FD, we employ a bivariate data aggregation technique to eliminate scatter. Our findings are as follows: (i) The proposed method demonstrates a remarkably consistent relation between the traffic variables and a clear triangular shape for autonomously-driven vehicles. (ii) The FDs are invariant to several factors of heterogeneity such as the platoon length, vehicle characteristics, road particularities, and data acquisition accuracy. (iii) ACC-driven vehicle platoons with minimum headway setting achieve much higher capacity, roughly 90\% than those with a large headway setting. (iv) Connectivity might increase capacity. (v) Human drivers have a wider near-capacity operation area, showing different behaviors at high speeds than low ones, and (vi) Safety concerns might arise due to high values of backward wave speed for ACC-driven vehicles. Comparative analysis with the state-of-the-art confirms the validity of our approach. The proposed method stands out due to its simplicity and accuracy, which paves the way for practical applications in real-time traffic flow monitoring and control within modern intelligent transportation systems.

eess.SY↗
arXiv2024

A Time-varying Shockwave Speed Model for Trajectory Reconstruction using Lagrangian and Eulerian Observations

Inference of detailed vehicle trajectories is crucial for applications such as traffic flow modeling, energy consumption estimation, and traffic flow optimization. Static sensors can provide only aggregated information, posing challenges in reconstructing individual vehicle trajectories. Shockwave theory is used to reproduce oscillations that occur between sensors. However, as the emerging of connected vehicles grows, probe data offers significant opportunities for more precise trajectory reconstruction. Existing methods rely on Eulerian observations (e.g., data from static sensors) and Lagrangian observations (e.g., data from probe vehicles) incorporating shockwave theory and car-following modeling. Despite these advancements, a prevalent issue lies in the static assignment of shockwave speed, which may not be able to reflect the traffic oscillations in a short time period caused by varying response times and vehicle dynamics. Moreover, energy consumption estimation is largely ignored. In response, this paper proposes a novel framework that integrates Eulerian and Lagrangian observations for trajectory reconstruction. The approach introduces a calibration algorithm for time-varying shockwave speed. The calibrated shockwave speed of the CV is then utilized for trajectory reconstruction of other non-connected vehicles based on shockwave theory. Additionaly, vehicle and driver dynamics are introduced to optimize the trajectory and estimate energy consumption. The proposed method is evaluated using real-world datasets, demonstrating superior performance in terms of trajectory accuracy, reproducing traffic oscillations, and estimating energy consumption.

eess.SY↗
arXiv2023

Antifragility as a complex system's response to perturbations, volatility, and time

Antifragility characterizes the benefit of a dynamical system derived from the variability in environmental perturbations. Antifragility carries a precise definition that quantifies a system's output response to input variability. Systems may respond poorly to perturbations (fragile) or benefit from perturbations (antifragile). In this manuscript, we review a range of applications of antifragility theory in technical systems (e.g., traffic control, robotics) and natural systems (e.g., cancer therapy, antibiotics). While there is a broad overlap in methods used to quantify and apply antifragility across disciplines, there is a need for precisely defining the scales at which antifragility operates. Thus, we provide a brief general introduction to the properties of antifragility in applied systems and review relevant literature for both natural and technical systems' antifragility. We frame this review within three scales common to technical systems: intrinsic (input-output nonlinearity), inherited (extrinsic environmental signals), and interventional (feedback control), with associated counterparts in biological systems: ecological (homogeneous systems), evolutionary (heterogeneous systems), and interventional (control). We use the common noun in designing systems that exhibit antifragile behavior across scales and guide the reader along the spectrum of fragility-adaptiveness-resilience-robustness-antifragility, the principles behind it, and its practical implications.

q-bio.PE↗