arXiv subjects

Michail A. Makridis

Publications and source records attributed to Michail A. Makridis.

22 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2023

Antifragility as a complex system's response to perturbations, volatility, and time

Antifragility characterizes the benefit of a dynamical system derived from the variability in environmental perturbations. Antifragility carries a precise definition that quantifies a system's output response to input variability. Systems may respond poorly to perturbations (fragile) or benefit from perturbations (antifragile). In this manuscript, we review a range of applications of antifragility theory in technical systems (e.g., traffic control, robotics) and natural systems (e.g., cancer therapy, antibiotics). While there is a broad overlap in methods used to quantify and apply antifragility across disciplines, there is a need for precisely defining the scales at which antifragility operates. Thus, we provide a brief general introduction to the properties of antifragility in applied systems and review relevant literature for both natural and technical systems' antifragility. We frame this review within three scales common to technical systems: intrinsic (input-output nonlinearity), inherited (extrinsic environmental signals), and interventional (feedback control), with associated counterparts in biological systems: ecological (homogeneous systems), evolutionary (heterogeneous systems), and interventional (control). We use the common noun in designing systems that exhibit antifragile behavior across scales and guide the reader along the spectrum of fragility-adaptiveness-resilience-robustness-antifragility, the principles behind it, and its practical implications.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2023

Energy-based Assessment and Driving Behavior of ACC Systems and Humans Inside Platoons

Evidence in the literature shows that automated and human driving modes demonstrate different driving characteristics, i.e., headway policy, spacing policy, reaction time, comfortable acceleration, and others. These differences alter observed traffic dynamics and have an impact on energy consumption. This paper assesses the energy footprint of commercially implemented adaptive cruise control (ACC) systems and human drivers in car-following formation via different models using empirical observations on very similar driving cycles and/or routes. Most importantly, it initiates a critical discussion of the findings under the behavioral properties of each mode. Findings show that: ACC systems propagate an increasing energy consumption upstream, while human drivers do not; they succeed in maintaining a constant time-headway policy, operating very reliably; they develop a strong bond with their leader compared to their human counterparts; the two modes (humans and ACCs) are operating in different phase-space areas with room for improvement. Overall, findings show that ACC systems must be optimized to achieve a trade-off between functional requirements and eco-driving instructions.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2022

Time-to-Green predictions for fully-actuated signal control systems with supervised learning

Recently, efforts have been made to standardize signal phase and timing (SPaT) messages. These messages contain signal phase timings of all signalized intersection approaches. This information can thus be used for efficient motion planning, resulting in more homogeneous traffic flows and uniform speed profiles. Despite efforts to provide robust predictions for semi-actuated signal control systems, predicting signal phase timings for fully-actuated controls remains challenging. This paper proposes a time series prediction framework using aggregated traffic signal and loop detector data. We utilize state-of-the-art machine learning models to predict future signal phases' duration. The performance of a Linear Regression (LR), a Random Forest (RF), and a Long-Short-Term-Memory (LSTM) neural network are assessed against a naive baseline model. Results based on an empirical data set from a fully-actuated signal control system in Zurich, Switzerland, show that machine learning models outperform conventional prediction methods. Furthermore, tree-based decision models such as the RF perform best with an accuracy that meets requirements for practical applications.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

Characterizing driver heterogeneity within stochastic traffic simulation

Drivers' heterogeneity and the broad range of vehicle characteristics on public roads are primarily responsible for the stochasticity observed in road traffic dynamics. Understanding the behavioural differences in drivers (human or automated systems) and reproducing observed behaviours in microsimulation attracts significant attention lately. Calibration of car-following model parameters is the prevalent way to simulate different driving behaviors through randomly injected variation around average parameter values. An issue is that, as shown in the literature, most car-following model do not realistically reproduce free-flow acceleration, that is in turn highly correlated with heterogeneity in driving styles. Furthermore, often, model parameters lose their physical interpretation upon calibration. The present study proposes a novel framework to analyse observed vehicle trajectories from various drivers, identify individual driver fingerprints based on their acceleration behavior, cluster drivers in categorically-meaningful driving styles (e.g. mild, normal and aggressive) and reproduce observed individual driver acceleration behaviors in microsimulation.

physics.soc-ph↗