arXiv subjects

Miguel Orcinha

Publications and source records attributed to Miguel Orcinha.

8 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

A new model for long-term forecasting of Galactic cosmic rays

The modulation of galactic cosmic rays, driven by the evolution of the heliospheric magnetic field, strongly influences the intensity of cosmic rays reaching near-Earth space. Characterizing this process is crucial both for advancing our understanding of cosmic-ray transport and for assessing radiation exposure and related hazards in space environments. Here we present a newly developed forecasting framework built on a numerical description of charged particle transport in the heliosphere and its dependence on solar activity, designed for the long-term forecasting of galactic cosmic-ray fluxes. It solves a one-dimensional, spherically symmetric form of the Parker transport equation, including diffusion, solar-wind advection, and adiabatic energy losses. The model has been validated using multi-species flux measurements from space-based experiments: PAMELA, AMS-02, and ACE. Its strategy is based on Hilbert-Huang transform filtering and cross-correlation between delayed solar proxies and effective model parameters. Our charge-sign- and rigidity-dependent parametric description of the diffusion-advection processes yields good overall agreement with the data, as shown by the reconstruction uncertainty. The robustness of this approach is validated across a broad set of multichannel datasets covering different particle species, energy ranges, and phases of solar activity, supporting its applicability to space radiation monitoring and forecasting. Furthermore, when coupled with solar-proxy forecasting models, it enables decadal-scale predictions of galactic cosmic-ray fluxes, thereby supporting long-term planning and radiation-risk assessment for future space missions.

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2025

Understanding variations of galactic energetic particles in the heliosphere: modelling and radiation hazard assessment

The intensity and energy spectrum of energetic charged radiation in the heliosphere are significantly influenced by solar activity. This phenomenon is known as solar modulation of galactic cosmic rays. As interplanetary travel becomes a reality, missions in low Earth orbit become longer and more frequent. In low Earth orbit we need to estimate the influence of Earth's magnetosphere accurately to assess the radiation hazard experienced by astronauts during space missions, there is an emergent need for accurately depicting the space radiation environment and predicting the cosmic-ray flux in the heliosphere. Here we present a new effective and predictive model of solar modulation which incorporates fundamental physics processes of particle transport such as diffusion, convection, and adiabatic cooling to compute the energy spectrum; and temporal evolution of cosmic radiation in the inner heliosphere. Empowered by this model and a time-dependent effective description of the geomagnetic field, we will show our estimates of the dose rates experienced by astronauts over time, as they orbit Earth onboard the International Space Station and while travelling through interplanetary space.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2025

A forecasting framework for galactic cosmic ray flux in space weather applications

The intensity and energy spectrum of galactic cosmic rays in the heliosphere are significantly influenced by the 11-year solar cycle, a phenomenon known as solar modulation. Understanding this effect and its underlying physical mechanisms is essential for assessing radiation exposure and associated risks during space missions. Starting from a previously developed effective predictive model of solar modulation, validated using cosmic ray flux measurements from space-based detectors such as PAMELA and AMS-02, we build a generalizable forecasting strategy for the long-term evolution of cosmic ray fluxes. This strategy is based on identifying delayed cross-correlation relationships between solar proxies and the model's parameters. It integrates recent findings on time lags between cosmic ray fluxes and solar activity, and incorporates advanced time-series signal processing techniques. The framework not only performs well in reproducing observed data, but also shows strong potential for applications in space radiation monitoring and forecasting. By efficiently capturing the long-term variability of galactic cosmic rays, our approach contributes valuable insights for evaluating radiation risks, ultimately supporting safer and more effective space exploration.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2025

Cross-correlation analysis for cosmic ray flux forecasting

The study presents an effective approach for deriving and utilizing polarity-based cross-correlation functions to forecast Galactic Cosmic Ray (GCR) fluxes based on solar activity proxies. By leveraging a universal correlation framework calibrated with AMS-02 and PAMELA proton flux data under a numerical model, the methodology incorporates Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) and a global spline fit. These techniques ensure robust handling of short-term fluctuations and smooth transitions during polarity reversals. The results have significant potential for space weather applications, enabling reliable GCR flux predictions critical for radiation risk assessments and operational planning in space exploration and satellite missions.

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2019

Numerical modeling of cosmic-ray transport in the heliosphere and interpretation of the proton-to-helium ratio in Solar Cycle 24

Thanks to space-borne experiments of cosmic-ray (CR) detection, such as the AMS and PAMELA missions in low-Earth orbit, or the Voyager-1 spacecraft in the interstellar space, a large collection of multi-channel and time-resolved CR data has become available. Recently, the AMS experiment has released new precision data, on the proton and helium fluxes in CRs, measured on monthly basis during its first six years of mission. The AMS data reveal a remarkable long-term behavior in the temporal evolution of the proton-to-helium ratio at rigidity $R = p/Z <$ 3 GV. As we have argued in a recent work, such a behavior may reflect the transport properties of low-rigidity CRs in the inteplanetary space. In particular, it can be caused by mass/charge dependence of the CR diffusion coefficient. In this paper, we present our developments in the numerical modeling of CR transport in the Milky Way and in the heliosphere. Within our model, and with the help of approximated analytical solutions, we describe in details the relations between the properties of CR diffusion and the time-dependent evolution of the proton-to-helium ratio.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2018

Testing diffusion of cosmic rays in the heliosphere with proton and helium data from AMS

After six years of continuous observations in space, the Alpha Magnetic Spectrometer experiment has released new data on the temporal evolution of the proton and helium fluxes in cosmic rays. These data revealed that the ratio between proton and helium fluxes at the same value of rigidity $R=p/Z$ (momentum/charge ratio) is not constant at $R\lesssim$ 3 GV. In particular, the ratio is found to decrease steadily during the descending phase of Solar Cycle 24 toward the next minimum. We show that such a behavior is a remarkable signature of the $β\timesλ(R)$ dependence in the diffusion of cosmic rays in heliosphere, where $β$ is their adimensional speed and $λ(R)$ is their mean free path, a universal function of rigidity for all nuclei. This dependence is responsible for distinctive charge/mass dependent effects in the time-dependent modulation of low-rigidity particles.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2018

Observation of a time lag in solar modulation of cosmic rays in the heliosphere

The solar modulation effect of Galactic cosmic rays is a time-dependent phenomenon that is caused by the transport of these particles through the magnetized plasma of the heliosphere. Using a data-driven model of cosmic-ray transport in the heliosphere, in combination with a large collection of data, we report the evidence for a eight-month time lag between observations of solar activity and measurements of cosmic-ray fluxes in space. As we will discuss, this result enables us to forecast the cosmic ray flux at Earth well in advance by monitoring solar activity. We also compare our predictions with the new multi-channel measurements of cosmic rays operated by the AMS experiment in space.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2018

Evidence for a Time Lag in Solar Modulation of Galactic Cosmic Rays

The solar modulation effect of cosmic rays in the heliosphere is an energy-, time-, and particle-dependent phenomenon which arises from a combination of basic particle transport processes such as diffusion, convection, adiabatic cooling, and drift motion. Making use of a large collection of time-resolved cosmic-ray data from recent space missions, we construct a simple predictive model of solar modulation which depends on direct solar-physics inputs: the number of solar sunspots and the tilt angle of the heliospheric current sheet. Under this framework, we present calculations of cosmic-ray proton spectra, positron/electron and antiproton/proton ratios and their time dependence in connection with the evolving solar activity. We report evidence for a time-lag $Δ{T}=8.1\pm\,1.2$ months, between solar activity data and cosmic-ray flux measurements in space, which reflects the dynamics of the formation of the modulation region. This result enables us to forecast the cosmic-ray flux near Earth well in advance by monitoring solar activity

astro-ph.HE↗