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arXiv · 2503.17812

Cross-correlation analysis for cosmic ray flux forecasting

David Pelosi·Fernando Barão·Bruna Bertucci·Emanuele Fiandrini·Miguel Orcinha·Alejandro Reina Conde·Nicola Tomassetti
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Abstract

The study presents an effective approach for deriving and utilizing polarity-based cross-correlation functions to forecast Galactic Cosmic Ray (GCR) fluxes based on solar activity proxies. By leveraging a universal correlation framework calibrated with AMS-02 and PAMELA proton flux data under a numerical model, the methodology incorporates Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) and a global spline fit. These techniques ensure robust handling of short-term fluctuations and smooth transitions during polarity reversals. The results have significant potential for space weather applications, enabling reliable GCR flux predictions critical for radiation risk assessments and operational planning in space exploration and satellite missions.

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David Pelosi, Fernando Barão, Bruna Bertucci, Emanuele Fiandrini, Miguel Orcinha, Alejandro Reina Conde, Nicola Tomassetti. 2025-03-22. Cross-correlation analysis for cosmic ray flux forecasting. https://doi.org/10.1051/epjconf/202531913004

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