arXiv subjects

Miguel Quartin

Publications and source records attributed to Miguel Quartin.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

First measurement of the Hubble constant from gravitational wave-galaxy cross-correlations

We measure for the first time the Hubble constant ($H_0$) from the cross-correlation of galaxies and gravitational waves (GW), by applying the $\textit{Peak Sirens}$ method. This method consists of finding the peak of the 3D angular cross-spectrum $C_{\ell}(z,D_L)$ between the galaxy redshifts ($z$) and the GW luminosity distances ($D_L$). Using two GW events from the GWTC-3.0 catalog and the GLADE+ galaxy catalog, we make the first detection of the cross-correlation peak at $5.9σ$ confidence. This signal comes mostly from the best localized event in the catalog, GW190814, which alone provides a $3.4σ$ significance. Adding also the multimessenger event GW170817, but without using its known redshift, we find $H_0 = 67^{+18}_{-15}$ km s$^{-1}$Mpc$^{-1}$ and the first observational constraint on the GW bias, $b_{\rm gw} < 4.3$ at 95\% CI. These measurements set the stage for future novel cosmological constraints with this technique.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2026

Joint Curvature and Growth Rate measurements with Supernova Peculiar Velocities and the CMB

Type Ia supernova (SN) magnitudes present correlations due to the fact that their peculiar velocities are sourced by the large-scale structure of the Universe. This effect can be used to constrain properties related to the distribution and growth of matter perturbations. We analyze both Pantheon+ and Dark Energy Survey (DES-Y5 and DES-Dovekie) SN catalogues in combination with CMB data from Planck PR4 to constrain $σ_8$ in $Λ$CDM, optionally including both curvature and a modified growth index $γ$. We show that SN and CMB datasets are highly complementary and capable of measuring $σ_8$, $γ$ and $Ω_k$ simultaneously. Using only SN, we find $σ_8 = 0.73 \pm 0.22$ ($0.70_{-0.38}^{+0.31}$) [$1.02^{+0.38}_{-0.45}$] for Pantheon+ (DES-Y5) [DES-Dovekie] in the base flat $Λ$CDM model. Interestingly, allowing for free $γ$ and $Ω_k$, we find hints of positive curvature: $Ω_k = -0.011 \pm 0.006$ $(-0.013^{+0.005}_{-0.006})$ $[-0.008^{+0.004}_{-0.006}]$, which exclude flatness at 2.0$σ$ (2.6$σ$) [1.8$σ$], for the combination of CMB with Pantheon+ (DES-Y5) [DES-Dovekie]. Such hints do not degrade if we also include a modified amplitude of CMB lensing, parametrized by $A_L$. We find that $γ= 0.519^{+0.061}_{-0.099}$ ($0.500^{+0.054}_{-0.098}$) [$0.525^{+0.074}_{-0.073}$], which are consistent with the predictions of General Relativity. Finally, the strong degeneracy between all three $Ω_k$, $γ$ and $H_0$ results in a broader CMB $H_0$ posterior. However, if we include SH0ES $H_0$ data, which is in known strong tension with the CMB in flat $Λ$CDM, we find that the $H_0$ tension is recast in terms of a significantly negative curvature and suppressed growth of structures.

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arXiv2026

On the use of the Derivative Approximation for Likelihoods for Gravitational Wave Inference

Posterior inference on the more than a dozen parameters governing a gravitational wave (GW) event is challenging. A typical MCMC analysis can take around $100$ CPU hours, and next generation GW observatories will detect many thousands of events. Here we present a thorough comparison of the accuracy and computational cost of the Fisher Matrix, Derivative Approximation for Likelihoods (DALI) and traditional MCMC methods. We find that using DALI, which extends the traditional Fisher Matrix (FM) method to higher orders, allows for a good approximation of the posterior with a $55$ times smaller computational cost, and that the cost-benefit of the doublet-DALI is better than that of the triplet-DALI. We also show that the singlet-DALI, a hybrid MCMC-Fisher method, is much more accurate than the traditional FM and 10 times faster than the doublet-DALI. A large effort has been invested in forecasting the science case of different detector configurations, and the ability of making fast yet accurate estimations of the posteriors is an important step forward. We also introduce version \texttt{1.0} of the public \texttt{GWDALI} code, which incorporates automatic differentiation, modern waveforms and an optimized parameter decomposition.

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arXiv2026

On the impact of baryons on the halo mass function, bias, and cluster cosmology

Luminous matter produces very energetic events, such as active galactic nuclei and supernova explosions, that significantly affect the internal regions of galaxy clusters. Although the current uncertainty in the effect of baryonic physics on cluster statistics is subdominant as compared to other systematics, the picture is likely to change soon as the amount of high-quality data is growing fast, urging the community to keep theoretical systematic uncertainties below the ever-growing statistical precision. In this paper, we study the effect of baryons on galaxy clusters, and their impact on the cosmological applications of clusters, using the Magneticum suite of cosmological hydrodynamical simulations. We show that the impact of baryons on the halo mass function can be recast in terms on a variation of the mass of the halos simulated with pure N-body, when baryonic effects are included. The halo mass function and halo bias are only indirectly affected. Finally, we demonstrate that neglecting baryonic effects on halos mass function and bias would significantly alter the inference of cosmological parameters from high-sensitivity next-generations surveys of galaxy clusters.

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arXiv2026

J-PAS: forecast on the primordial power spectrum reconstruction

We investigate the capability of the J-PAS survey to constrain the primordial power spectrum using a non-parametric Bayesian method. Specifically, we analyze simulated power spectra generated by a local oscillatory primordial feature template motivated by non-standard inflation. The feature is placed within the range of scales where the signal-to-noise ratio is maximized, and we restrict the analysis to $k \in [0.02,0.2] \text{ h} \text{ Mpc}^{-1}$, set by the expected J-PAS coverage and the onset of non-linear effects. Each primordial power spectrum is reconstructed by linearly interpolating $N$ knots in the $\{\log k, \log P_{\mathcal{R}}(k)\}$ plane, which are sampled jointly with the cosmological parameters $\{H_0,Ω_b h^2, Ω_c h^2\}$ using PolyChord. To test the primordial features, we apply two statistical tools: the Bayes factor and a hypothesis test that localizes the scales where features are detected. We assess the recovery under different J-PAS specifications, including redshift binning, tracer type, survey area, and filter strategy. Our results show that combining redshift bins and tracers allows the detection of oscillatory features as small as 2\%.

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arXiv2026

Accurate cosmological emulator for the probability distribution function of gravitational lensing of point sources

We develop an accurate and computationally efficient emulator to model the gravitational lensing magnification probability distribution function (PDF), enabling robust cosmological inference of point sources such as supernovae and gravitational-wave observations. We construct a pipeline utilizing cosmological $N$-body simulations, creating past light cones to compute convergence and shear maps. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is employed for dimensionality reduction, followed by an eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) machine learning model to interpolate magnification PDFs across a broad cosmological parameter space ($Ω_m$, $σ_8$, $w$, $h$) and redshift range ($0.2 \le z \le 6$). We identify the optimal number of PCA components to balance accuracy and stability. Our emulator, publicly released as ace_lensing, accurately reproduces lensing PDFs with a median Kullback-Leibler divergence of $0.007$. Validation on the test set confirmed that the model reliably reproduces the detailed shapes and statistical properties of the PDFs across the explored parameter range, showing no significant degradation for specific parameter combinations or redshifts. Future work will focus on incorporating baryonic physics through hydrodynamical simulations and expanding the training set to further enhance model accuracy and generalizability.

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arXiv2025

On the validity of the continuity equation in a modified gravity framework with CMB, DES 3x2pt and tomographic ISW data

In this work we propose a phenomenological modification to the continuity equation at the linear perturbation level and test it using combinations of the CMB temperature, polarization and lensing potential angular spectrum, the ISW-galaxy cross power spectrum and the 3$\times$2pt lensing and galaxy clustering from DES survey. We investigate two parametrisations of this modification, both proportional to a new parameter $A_c$, which is assumed to be either constant in time, or proportional to the scale factor $a$, in order to be more relevant at late times. We find DES and ISW data to be consistent with the standard continuity equation when $A_c$ is constant, but 2--3$σ$ hints of a non-zero modification appear when Planck data is included. The model $A_c \propto a$ results in stronger tensions. We also test the effects of including the common extra parameters $μ$ and $η$ that modify the Poisson equation and Weyl potential. Although $A_c$, $μ$ and $η$ are correlated, we still find non-zero $A_c$ when Planck data is included or without Planck if $A_c \propto a$ and only either $η$ or $μ$ are allowed to vary. We conclude that violations of the continuity equation should be considered with care when testing additional deviations from general relativity.

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arXiv2025

A model-independent measurement of the expansion and growth rates from BOSS using the FreePower method

In this work we provide a data analysis of the BOSS galaxy clustering data with the recently proposed FreePower method, which adopts as parameters the power spectrum band-powers, the expansion rate, and the growth rate instead of specific cosmological parametrizations. It relies on the Alcock-Paczyński effect and redshift-space distortions, and makes use of one-loop perturbation theory for biased tracers. In this way, we obtain for the first time constraints on the linear growth rate, on the Hubble parameter, as well as on the dimensionless distance $H_0 D_A$ and various bias functions, that are independent of a model for the power spectrum shape and thus of both the early and late-time cosmological modelling. Using weakly-informative priors, requiring basically that $σ_8 \in [0.67, 1.07]$ at 95% CI, we find at $z_{\rm eff}=0.38$, $f=0.67^{+0.20}_{-0.19}$, $H/H_0=1.033^{+0.13}_{-0.081}$, $H_0 D_A = 0.264^{+0.026}_{-0.039}$ and at $z_{\rm eff}=0.61$, $f=0.82^{+0.25}_{-0.20}$, $H/H_0=1.085^{+0.16}_{-0.067}$, $H_0 D_A = 0.390^{+0.036}_{-0.046}$. We find lower $H/H_0$ results than expected from Planck 2018 $Λ$CDM results at a confidence level of 1.7$σ$ ($2.1σ$) for low-$z$ (high-$z$). These results form a proof-of-principle of the FreePower method. We also get constraints on the bias parameters which are in agreement with constraints from previous BOSS analyses, which serves as a cross-check of our pipeline.

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arXiv2025

Fréchet Vectors as sensitive tools for blind tests of CMB anomalies

Cosmological data collected on a sphere, such as CMB anisotropies, are typically represented by the spherical harmonic coefficients, denoted as $a_{\ell m}$. The angular power spectrum, or $C_\ell$, serves as the fundamental estimator of the variance in this data. Alternatively, spherical data and their variance can also be characterized using Multipole Vectors (MVs) and the Fréchet variance. The vectors that minimize this variance, known as Fréchet Vectors (FVs), define the center of mass of points on a compact space, and are excellent indicators of statistical correlations between different multipoles. We demonstrate this using both simulations and real data. Through simulations, we show that FVs enable a blind detection and reconstruction of the location associated with a mock Cold Spot anomaly introduced in an otherwise isotropic sky. Applying these tools to the 2018 Planck maps, we implement several improvements on previous null tests of Gaussianity and statistical isotropy, down to arc-minute scales. Planck's MVs appear consistent with these hypotheses at scales $2 \leq\ell \leq 1500$ when the common mask is applied, whereas the same test using the FVs rejects them with significances between 5.3 and 8.2$σ$. The inclusion of anisotropic noise simulations render the FVs marginally consistent ($\geq 2σ$) with the null hypotheses at the same scales, but still rejects them at $3.5-3.7σ$ when we consider scales above $\ell=1500$, where the signal-to-noise is small. Limitations of the noise and/or foregrounds modeling may account for these deviations from the null hypothesis.

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arXiv2025

On the full non-Gaussian Surprise statistic and the cosmological concordance between DESI, SDSS and Pantheon+

With the increasing precision of recent cosmological surveys and the discovery of important tensions within the $Λ$CDM paradigm, it is becoming more and more important to develop tools to quantify accurately the discordance between different probes. One such tool is the Surprise statistic, a measure based on the Kullback-Leibler divergence. The Surprise, however, has been up to now applied only under its Gaussian approximation, which can fail to properly capture discordance in cases that deviate significantly from Gaussianity. In this paper we developed the \texttt{klsurprise} code which computes the full numerical non-Gaussian Surprise, and analyse the Surprise for BAO + BBN and supernova data. We test different cosmological models, some of which the parameters deviate significantly from Gaussianity. We find that the non-Gaussianities, mainly present in the Supernova dataset, change the Surprise values significantly from its Gaussian approximation, and reveal a borderline $2.0σ$ tension in the curved $w$CDM model (o$w$CDM) between the combined Pantheon+ and SH0ES (Pantheon+ & SH0ES) data and the dataset which combines SDSS, BOSS and eBOSS BAO. This modest tension is hidden in the Gaussian Surprise approximation. For DESI, the discrepancy with Pantheon+ & SH0ES is at the $1.5σ$ level for o$w$CDM, but a large $3.4σ$ for $Λ$CDM. Removing SH0ES data drops the $Λ$CDM significance to $2.6σ$.

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arXiv2025

A robust cosmic standard ruler from the cross-correlations of galaxies and dark sirens

Observations of gravitational waves (GWs) from dark sirens allow us to infer their locations and distances. Galaxies, on the other hand, have precise angular positions but no direct measurement of their distances -- only redshifts. The cross-correlation of GWs, which we limit here to binary black hole mergers (BBH), in spherical shells of luminosity distance $D_L$, with galaxies in shells of redshift $z$, leads to a direct measurement of the Hubble diagram $D_L(z)$. Since this standard ruler relies only on the statistical proximity of the dark sirens and galaxies (a general property of large-scale structures), it is essentially model-independent: the correlation is maximal when both redshift and $D_L$ shells coincide. We forecast the constraining power of this technique, which we call {\it{Peak Sirens}}, for run 5 (O5) of LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA (LVK), as well as for the third-generation observatories Einstein Telescope and Cosmic Explorer. We employ thousands of full-sky light cone simulations with realistic numbers for the tracers, and include masking by the Milky Way, lensing and inhomogeneous GW sky coverage. We find that the method is not expected to suffer from some of the issues present in other dark siren methods, such as biased constraints due to incompleteness of galaxy catalogs or dependence on priors for the merger rates of BBH. We show that with Peak Sirens, given the projected O5 sensitivity, LVK can measure $H_0$ with $7\%$ precision by itself, assuming $Λ$CDM, and $4\%$ precision using external datasets to constrain $Ω_m$. We also show that future third-generation GW detectors can achieve, without external data, sub-percent uncertainties in $H_0$ assuming $Λ$CDM, and 3\% in a more flexible $w_0w_a$CDM model. The method also shows remarkable robustness against systematic effects such as the modeling of non-linear structure formation.

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arXiv2025

Bayesian distances for quantifying tensions in cosmological inference and the surprise statistic

Tensions between cosmological parameters derived through different channels can be a genuine signature of new physics that $Λ$CDM as the standard model is not able to reproduce, in particular in the missing consistency between parameter estimates from measurements the early and late Universe. Or, they could be caused by yet to be understood systematics in the measurements as a more mundane explanation. Commonly, cosmological tensions are stated in terms of mismatches of the posterior parameter distributions, often assuming Gaussian statistics. More importantly, though, would be a quantification if two data sets are consistent to each other before combining them into a joint measurement, ideally isolating hints at individual data points that have a strong influence in generating the tension. For this purpose, we start with statistical divergences applied to posterior distributions following from different data sets and develop the theory of a Fisher metric between two data sets, in analogy to the Fisher metric for different parameter choices. As a topical example, we consider the tension in the Hubble-Lemaître constant $H_0$ from supernova and measurements of the cosmic microwave background, derive a ranking of data points in order of their influence on the tension on $H_0$. For this particular example, we compute Bayesian distance measures and show that in the light of CMB data, supernovae are commonly too bright, whereas the low-$\ell$ CMB spectrum is too high, in agreement with intuition about the parameter sensitivity.

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arXiv2025

Cosmological Spatial Curvature with the Alcock-Paczynski Effect

We propose a methodology to measure the cosmological spatial curvature by employing the deviation from statistical isotropy due to the Alcock-Paczyński effect of large scale galaxy clustering. This approach has a higher degree of model independence than most other proposed methods, being independent of calibration of standard candles, rulers, or clocks, of the power spectrum shape (and thus also of the pre-recombination physics), of the galaxy bias, of the theory of gravity, of the dark energy model and of the background cosmology in general. We find that a combined DESI-Euclid galaxy survey can achieve $ΔΩ_{k0}=0.057$ at 1$σ$ C.L. in the redshift range $z<2$ by combining power-spectrum and bispectrum measurements.

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arXiv2024

A deconstruction of methods to derive one-point lensing statistics

Gravitational lensing is a crucial tool for exploring cosmic phenomena, providing insights into galaxy clustering, dark matter, and dark energy. Given the substantial computational demands of $N$-body simulations, approximate methods like $\texttt{PINOCCHIO}$ and $\texttt{turboGL}$ have been proposed as viable alternatives for simulating lensing probability density functions (PDFs). This paper evaluates these methods and their effectiveness across both weak and strong lensing regimes, with a focus in the context where baryonic effects are negligible. Our comparative analysis reveals that these methods are effective for applications where lensing is mild, such as the majority of sources of electromagnetic and gravitational waves. However, both $\texttt{PINOCCHIO}$ and $\texttt{turboGL}$ break down for large values of convergence and magnification due to their loss of accuracy in capturing small-scale nonlinear matter fields, owing to oversimplified assumptions about internal halo structures and reliance on perturbation theory. $\texttt{PINOCCHIO}$ yields second-to-fourth moments of the lensing PDFs, which are 6-10% smaller than those resulting from $N$-body simulations in regimes where baryonic effects are minimal. These findings aim to inform future studies on gravitational lensing of point sources, which are increasingly relevant with upcoming supernova and gravitational wave datasets.

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arXiv2024

A model-independent tripartite test of cosmic distance relations

Cosmological distances are fundamental observables in cosmology. The luminosity ($D_L$), angular diameter ($D_A$) and gravitational wave ($D_{\rm GW}$) distances are all trivially related in General Relativity assuming no significant absorption of photons in the extragalactic medium, also known as cosmic opacity. Supernovae have long been the main cosmological standard candle, but bright standard sirens are now a proven alternative, with the advantage of not requiring calibration with other astrophysical sources. Moreover, they can also measure deviations from modified gravity through discrepancies between $D_L$ and $D_{\rm GW}$. However, both gravitational and cosmological parameters are degenerate in the Hubble diagram, making it hard to properly detect beyond standard model physics. Finally, recently a model-independent method named FreePower was proposed to infer angular diameter distances from large-scale structure which is independent of the knowledge of both early universe and dark energy physics. In this paper we propose a tripartite test of the ratios of these three distances with minimal amount of assumptions regarding cosmology, the early universe, cosmic opacity and modified gravity. We proceed to forecast this test with a combination of LSST and Roman supernovae, Einstein Telescope bright sirens and a joint DESI-like + Euclid-like galaxy survey. We find that even in this very model-independent approach we will be able to detect, in each of many redshift bins, percent-level deviations in these ratios of distances, allowing for very precise consistency checks of $Λ$CDM and standard physics. It can also result in sub-percent measurements of $H_0$.

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arXiv2024

Constraints on cosmologically coupled black holes from gravitational wave observations and minimal formation mass

We test the possibility that the black holes (BHs) detected by LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA (LVK) may be cosmologically coupled and grow in mass proportionally to the cosmological scale factor to some power $k$, which may also act as the dark energy source if $k\approx 3$. This approach was proposed as an extension of Kerr BHs embedded in cosmological backgrounds and possibly without singularities or horizons. In our analysis, we develop and apply two methods to test these cosmologically coupled BHs (CCBHs) either with or without connection to dark energy. We consider different scenarios for the time between the binary BH formation and its merger, and we find that the standard log-uniform distribution yields weaker constraints than the CCBH-corrected case. Assuming that the minimum mass of a BH with stellar progenitor is $2M_\odot$, we estimate the probability that at least one BH among the observed ones had an initial mass below this threshold. We obtain these probabilities either directly from the observed data or by assuming the LVK power-law-plus-peak mass distribution. In the latter case we find, at $2σ$ level, that $k < 2.1$ for the standard log-uniform distribution, or $k < 1.1$ for the CCBH-corrected distribution. Slightly weaker bounds are obtained in the direct method. Considering the uncertainties on the nature of CCBHs, we also find that the required minimum CCBH mass value to eliminate the tensions for $k=3$ should be lower than 0.5 $M_\odot$ (again at 2$σ$). Finally, we show that future observations have the potential to decisively confirm these bounds.

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arXiv2023

Improving precision and accuracy in cosmology with model-independent spectrum and bispectrum

A new and promising avenue was recently developed for analyzing large-scale structure data with a model-independent approach, in which the linear power spectrum shape is parametrized with a large number of freely varying wavebands rather than by assuming specific cosmological models. We call this method FreePower. Here we show, using a Fisher matrix approach, that precision of this method for the case of the one-loop power spectrum is greatly improved with the inclusion of the tree-level bispectrum. We also show that accuracy can be similarly improved by employing perturbation theory kernels whose structure is entirely determined by symmetries instead of evolution equations valid in particular models (like in the usual Einstein-deSitter approximation). The main result is that with the Euclid survey one can precisely measure the Hubble function, distance and ($k$-independent) growth rate $f(z)$ in seven redshift bins in the range $z\in [0.6,\, 2.0]$. The typical errors for the lowest $z$bins are around 1\% (for $H$), 0.5--1\% (for $D$), and 1--3\% (for $f$). The use of general perturbation theory allows us, for the first time, to study constraints on the nonlinear kernels of cosmological perturbations, that is, beyond the linear growth factor, showing that they can be probed at the 10--20\% level. We find that the combination of spectrum and bispectrum is particularly effective in constraining the perturbation parameters, both at linear and quadratic order.

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arXiv2023

Constraining Horndeski theory with gravitational waves from coalescing binaries

In the broad subclass of Horndeski theories with a luminal speed of gravitational waves, we derive gravitational waveforms emitted from a compact binary by considering the wave propagation on a spatially flat cosmological background. A scalar field nonminimally coupled to gravity gives rise to hairy neutron star (NS) solutions with a nonvanishing scalar charge, whereas black holes (BHs) do not have scalar hairs in such theories. A binary system containing at least one hairy neutron star modifies the gravitational waveforms in comparison to those of the BH-BH binary. Using the tensor gravitational waveforms, we forecast the constraints on a parameter characterizing the difference of scalar charges of NS-BH or NS-NS binaries for Advanced LIGO and Einstein Telescope. We illustrate how these constraints depend on redshift and signal-to-noise ratio, and on different possible priors. We show that in any case it is possible to constrain the scalar charge precisely, so that some scalarized NS solutions known in the literature can be excluded.

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