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Mihaela van der Schaar

Publications and source records attributed to Mihaela van der Schaar.

At least 289 records · Page 16Linked to original sources

A Theory of Individualism, Collectivism and Economic Outcomes

This paper presents a dynamic model to study the impact on the economic outcomes in different societies during the Malthusian Era of individualism (time spent working alone) and collectivism (complementary time spent working with others). The model is driven by opposing forces: a greater degree of collectivism provides a higher safety net for low quality workers but a greater degree of individualism allows high quality workers to leave larger bequests. The model suggests that more individualistic societies display smaller populations, greater per capita income and greater income inequality. Some (limited) historical evidence is consistent with these predictions.

physics.soc-ph↗

Reputational Learning and Network Dynamics

In many real world networks agents are initially unsure of each other's qualities and must learn about each other over time via repeated interactions. This paper is the first to provide a methodology for studying the dynamics of such networks, taking into account that agents differ from each other, that they begin with incomplete information, and that they must learn through past experiences which connections/links to form and which to break. The network dynamics in our model vary drastically from the dynamics in models of complete information. With incomplete information and learning, agents who provide high benefits will develop high reputations and remain in the network, while agents who provide low benefits will drop in reputation and become ostracized. We show, among many other things, that the information to which agents have access and the speed at which they learn and act can have a tremendous impact on the resulting network dynamics. Using our model, we can also compute the ex ante social welfare given an arbitrary initial network, which allows us to characterize the socially optimal network structures for different sets of agents. Importantly, we show through examples that the optimal network structure depends sharply on both the initial beliefs of the agents, as well as the rate of learning by the agents. Due to the potential negative consequences of ostracism, it may be necessary to place agents with lower initial reputations at less central positions within the network.

econ.GN↗

Personalized Risk Scoring for Critical Care Patients using Mixtures of Gaussian Process Experts

We develop a personalized real time risk scoring algorithm that provides timely and granular assessments for the clinical acuity of ward patients based on their (temporal) lab tests and vital signs. Heterogeneity of the patients population is captured via a hierarchical latent class model. The proposed algorithm aims to discover the number of latent classes in the patients population, and train a mixture of Gaussian Process (GP) experts, where each expert models the physiological data streams associated with a specific class. Self-taught transfer learning is used to transfer the knowledge of latent classes learned from the domain of clinically stable patients to the domain of clinically deteriorating patients. For new patients, the posterior beliefs of all GP experts about the patient's clinical status given her physiological data stream are computed, and a personalized risk score is evaluated as a weighted average of those beliefs, where the weights are learned from the patient's hospital admission information. Experiments on a heterogeneous cohort of 6,313 patients admitted to Ronald Regan UCLA medical center show that our risk score outperforms the currently deployed risk scores, such as MEWS and Rothman scores.

cs.LG↗

Predicting Grades

To increase efficacy in traditional classroom courses as well as in Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs), automated systems supporting the instructor are needed. One important problem is to automatically detect students that are going to do poorly in a course early enough to be able to take remedial actions. Existing grade prediction systems focus on maximizing the accuracy of the prediction while overseeing the importance of issuing timely and personalized predictions. This paper proposes an algorithm that predicts the final grade of each student in a class. It issues a prediction for each student individually, when the expected accuracy of the prediction is sufficient. The algorithm learns online what is the optimal prediction and time to issue a prediction based on past history of students' performance in a course. We derive a confidence estimate for the prediction accuracy and demonstrate the performance of our algorithm on a dataset obtained based on the performance of approximately 700 UCLA undergraduate students who have taken an introductory digital signal processing over the past 7 years. We demonstrate that for 85% of the students we can predict with 76% accuracy whether they are going do well or poorly in the class after the 4th course week. Using data obtained from a pilot course, our methodology suggests that it is effective to perform early in-class assessments such as quizzes, which result in timely performance prediction for each student, thereby enabling timely interventions by the instructor (at the student or class level) when necessary.

cs.LG↗

ConfidentCare: A Clinical Decision Support System for Personalized Breast Cancer Screening

Breast cancer screening policies attempt to achieve timely diagnosis by the regular screening of apparently healthy women. Various clinical decisions are needed to manage the screening process; those include: selecting the screening tests for a woman to take, interpreting the test outcomes, and deciding whether or not a woman should be referred to a diagnostic test. Such decisions are currently guided by clinical practice guidelines (CPGs), which represent a one-size-fits-all approach that are designed to work well on average for a population, without guaranteeing that it will work well uniformly over that population. Since the risks and benefits of screening are functions of each patients features, personalized screening policies that are tailored to the features of individuals are needed in order to ensure that the right tests are recommended to the right woman. In order to address this issue, we present ConfidentCare: a computer-aided clinical decision support system that learns a personalized screening policy from the electronic health record (EHR) data. ConfidentCare operates by recognizing clusters of similar patients, and learning the best screening policy to adopt for each cluster. A cluster of patients is a set of patients with similar features (e.g. age, breast density, family history, etc.), and the screening policy is a set of guidelines on what actions to recommend for a woman given her features and screening test scores. ConfidentCare algorithm ensures that the policy adopted for every cluster of patients satisfies a predefined accuracy requirement with a high level of confidence. We show that our algorithm outperforms the current CPGs in terms of cost-efficiency and false positive rates.

cs.LG↗

Personalized Course Sequence Recommendations

Given the variability in student learning it is becoming increasingly important to tailor courses as well as course sequences to student needs. This paper presents a systematic methodology for offering personalized course sequence recommendations to students. First, a forward-search backward-induction algorithm is developed that can optimally select course sequences to decrease the time required for a student to graduate. The algorithm accounts for prerequisite requirements (typically present in higher level education) and course availability. Second, using the tools of multi-armed bandits, an algorithm is developed that can optimally recommend a course sequence that both reduces the time to graduate while also increasing the overall GPA of the student. The algorithm dynamically learns how students with different contextual backgrounds perform for given course sequences and then recommends an optimal course sequence for new students. Using real-world student data from the UCLA Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering department, we illustrate how the proposed algorithms outperform other methods that do not include student contextual information when making course sequence recommendations.

cs.CY↗

A Micro-foundation of Social Capital in Evolving Social Networks

A social network confers benefits and advantages on individuals (and on groups), the literature refers to these advantages as social capital. This paper presents a micro-founded mathematical model of the evolution of a social network and of the social capital of individuals within the network. The evolution of the network is influenced by the extent to which individuals are homophilic, structurally opportunistic, socially gregarious and by the distribution of types in the society. In the analysis, we identify different kinds of social capital: bonding capital, popularity capital, and bridging capital. Bonding capital is created by forming a circle of connections, homophily increases bonding capital because it makes this circle of connections more homogeneous. Popularity capital leads to preferential attachment: individuals who become popular tend to become more popular because others are more likely to link to them. Homophily creates asymmetries in the levels of popularity attained by different social groups, more gregarious types of agents are more likely to become popular. However, in homophilic societies, individuals who belong to less gregarious, less opportunistic, or major types are likely to be more central in the network and thus acquire a bridging capital.

cs.SI↗

The user base dynamics of websites

In this work we study for the first time the interaction between marketing and network effects. We build a model in which the online firm starts with an initial user base and controls the growth of the user base by choosing the intensity of advertisements and referrals to potential users. A large user base provides more profits to the online firm, but building a large user base through advertisements and referrals is costly; therefore, the optimal policy must balance the marginal benefits of adding users against the marginal costs of sending advertisements and referrals. Our work offers three main insights: (1) The optimal policy prescribes that a new online firm should offer many advertisements and referrals initially, but then it should decrease advertisements and referrals over time. (2) If the network effects decrease, then the change in the optimal policy depends heavily on two factors i) the level of patience of the online firm, where patient online firms are oriented towards long term profits and impatient online firms are oriented towards short term profits and, ii) the size of the user base. If the online firm is very patient (impatient) and if the network effects decrease, then the optimal policy prescribes it to be more (less) aggressive in posting advertisements and referrals at low user base levels and less (more) aggressive in posting advertisements and referrals at high user base levels. (3) The change in the optimal policy when network effects decrease also depends heavily on the heterogeneity in the user base, as measured in terms of the revenue generated by each user. An online firm that generates most of its revenue from a core group of users should be more aggressive and protective of its user base than a firm that generates revenue uniformly from its users.

math.OC↗

From Acquaintances to Friends: Homophily and Learning in Networks

This paper considers the evolution of a network in a discrete time, stochastic setting in which agents learn about each other through repeated interactions and maintain/break links on the basis of what they learn from these interactions. Agents have homophilous preferences and limited capacity, so they maintain links with others who are learned to be similar to themselves and cut links to others who are learned to be dissimilar to themselves. Thus learning influences the evolution of the network, but learning is imperfect so the evolution is stochastic. Homophily matters. Higher levels of homophily decrease the (average) number of links that agents form. However, the effect of homophily is anomalous: mutually beneficial links may be dropped before learning is completed, thereby resulting in sparser networks and less clustering than under complete information. There may be big differences between the networks that emerge under complete and incomplete information. Homophily matters here as well: initially, greater levels of homophily increase the difference between the complete and incomplete information networks, but sufficiently high levels of homophily eventually decrease the difference. Complete and incomplete information networks differ the most when the degree of homophily is intermediate. With multiple stages of life, the effects of incomplete information are large initially but fade somewhat over time.

physics.soc-ph↗

Dynamic Network Formation with Foresighted Agents

What networks can form and persist when agents are self-interested? Can such networks be efficient? A substantial theoretical literature predicts that the only networks that can form and persist must have very special shapes and that such networks cannot be efficient, but these predictions are in stark contrast to empirical findings. In this paper, we present a new model of network formation. In contrast to the existing literature, our model is dynamic (rather than static), we model agents as foresighted (rather than myopic) and we allow for the possibility that agents are heterogeneous (rather than homogeneous). We show that a very wide variety of networks can form and persist; in particular, efficient networks can form and persist if they provide every agent a strictly positive payoff. For the widely-studied connections model, we provide a full characterization of the set of efficient networks that can form and persist. Our predictions are consistent with empirical findings.

cs.GT↗

Evolution of Social Networks: A Microfounded Model

Many societies are organized in networks that are formed by people who meet and interact over time. In this paper, we present a first model to capture the micro-foundations of social networks evolution, where boundedly rational agents of different types join the network; meet other agents stochastically over time; and consequently decide to form social ties. A basic premise of our model is that in real-world networks, agents form links by reasoning about the benefits that agents they meet over time can bestow. We study the evolution of the emerging networks in terms of friendship and popularity acquisition given the following exogenous parameters: structural opportunism, type distribution, homophily, and social gregariousness. We show that the time needed for an agent to find "friends" is influenced by the exogenous parameters: agents who are more gregarious, more homophilic, less opportunistic, or belong to a type "minority" spend a longer time on average searching for friendships. Moreover, we show that preferential attachment is a consequence of an emerging doubly preferential meeting process: a process that guides agents of a certain type to meet more popular similar-type agents with a higher probability, thereby creating asymmetries in the popularity evolution of different types of agents.

cs.SI↗

Information-Sharing over Adaptive Networks with Self-interested Agents

We examine the behavior of multi-agent networks where information-sharing is subject to a positive communications cost over the edges linking the agents. We consider a general mean-square-error formulation where all agents are interested in estimating the same target vector. We first show that, in the absence of any incentives to cooperate, the optimal strategy for the agents is to behave in a selfish manner with each agent seeking the optimal solution independently of the other agents. Pareto inefficiency arises as a result of the fact that agents are not using historical data to predict the behavior of their neighbors and to know whether they will reciprocate and participate in sharing information. Motivated by this observation, we develop a reputation protocol to summarize the opponent's past actions into a reputation score, which can then be used to form a belief about the opponent's subsequent actions. The reputation protocol entices agents to cooperate and turns their optimal strategy into an action-choosing strategy that enhances the overall social benefit of the network. In particular, we show that when the communications cost becomes large, the expected social benefit of the proposed protocol outperforms the social benefit that is obtained by cooperative agents that always share data. We perform a detailed mean-square-error analysis of the evolution of the network over three domains: far field, near-field, and middle-field, and show that the network behavior is stable for sufficiently small step-sizes. The various theoretical results are illustrated by numerical simulations.

cs.MA↗

Efficient Interference Management Policies for Femtocell Networks

Managing interference in a network of macrocells underlaid with femtocells presents an important, yet challenging problem. A majority of spatial (frequency/time) reuse based approaches partition the users based on coloring the interference graph, which is shown to be suboptimal. Some spatial time reuse based approaches schedule the maximal independent sets (MISs) in a cyclic, (weighted) round-robin fashion, which is inefficient for delay-sensitive applications. Our proposed policies schedule the MISs in a non-cyclic fashion, which aim to optimize any given network performance criterion for delay-sensitive applications while fulfilling minimum throughput requirements of the users. Importantly, we do not take the interference graph as given as in existing works; we propose an optimal construction of the interference graph. We prove that under certain conditions, the proposed policy achieves the optimal network performance. For large networks, we propose a low-complexity algorithm for computing the proposed policy. We show that the policy computed achieves a constant competitive ratio (with respect to the optimal network performance), which is independent of the network size, under wide range of deployment scenarios. The policy can be implemented in a decentralized manner by the users. Compared to the existing policies, our proposed policies can achieve improvement of up to 130 % in large-scale deployments.

cs.IT↗

Contextual Online Learning for Multimedia Content Aggregation

The last decade has witnessed a tremendous growth in the volume as well as the diversity of multimedia content generated by a multitude of sources (news agencies, social media, etc.). Faced with a variety of content choices, consumers are exhibiting diverse preferences for content; their preferences often depend on the context in which they consume content as well as various exogenous events. To satisfy the consumers' demand for such diverse content, multimedia content aggregators (CAs) have emerged which gather content from numerous multimedia sources. A key challenge for such systems is to accurately predict what type of content each of its consumers prefers in a certain context, and adapt these predictions to the evolving consumers' preferences, contexts and content characteristics. We propose a novel, distributed, online multimedia content aggregation framework, which gathers content generated by multiple heterogeneous producers to fulfill its consumers' demand for content. Since both the multimedia content characteristics and the consumers' preferences and contexts are unknown, the optimal content aggregation strategy is unknown a priori. Our proposed content aggregation algorithm is able to learn online what content to gather and how to match content and users by exploiting similarities between consumer types. We prove bounds for our proposed learning algorithms that guarantee both the accuracy of the predictions as well as the learning speed. Importantly, our algorithms operate efficiently even when feedback from consumers is missing or content and preferences evolve over time. Illustrative results highlight the merits of the proposed content aggregation system in a variety of settings.

cs.MM↗

Distributed Online Learning via Cooperative Contextual Bandits

In this paper we propose a novel framework for decentralized, online learning by many learners. At each moment of time, an instance characterized by a certain context may arrive to each learner; based on the context, the learner can select one of its own actions (which gives a reward and provides information) or request assistance from another learner. In the latter case, the requester pays a cost and receives the reward but the provider learns the information. In our framework, learners are modeled as cooperative contextual bandits. Each learner seeks to maximize the expected reward from its arrivals, which involves trading off the reward received from its own actions, the information learned from its own actions, the reward received from the actions requested of others and the cost paid for these actions - taking into account what it has learned about the value of assistance from each other learner. We develop distributed online learning algorithms and provide analytic bounds to compare the efficiency of these with algorithms with the complete knowledge (oracle) benchmark (in which the expected reward of every action in every context is known by every learner). Our estimates show that regret - the loss incurred by the algorithm - is sublinear in time. Our theoretical framework can be used in many practical applications including Big Data mining, event detection in surveillance sensor networks and distributed online recommendation systems.

cs.LG↗

Distributed Interference Management Policies for Heterogeneous Small Cell Networks

We study the problem of interference management in large-scale small cell networks, where each user equipment (UE) needs to determine in a distributed manner when and at what power level it should transmit to its serving small cell base station (SBS) such that a given network performance criterion is maximized subject to minimum quality of service (QoS) requirements by the UEs. We first propose a distributed algorithm for the UE-SBS pairs to find a subset of weakly interfering UE-SBS pairs, namely the maximal independent sets (MISs) of the interference graph in logarithmic time (with respect to the number of UEs). Then we propose a novel problem formulation which enables UE-SBS pairs to determine the optimal fractions of time occupied by each MIS in a distributed manner. We analytically bound the performance of our distributed policy in terms of the competitive ratio with respect to the optimal network performance, which is obtained in a centralized manner with NP (non-deterministic polynomial time) complexity. Remarkably, the competitive ratio is independent of the network size, which guarantees scalability in terms of performance for arbitrarily large networks. Through simulations, we show that our proposed policies achieve significant performance improvements (from 150% to 700%) over the existing policies.

cs.IT↗

RELEAF: An Algorithm for Learning and Exploiting Relevance

Recommender systems, medical diagnosis, network security, etc., require on-going learning and decision-making in real time. These -- and many others -- represent perfect examples of the opportunities and difficulties presented by Big Data: the available information often arrives from a variety of sources and has diverse features so that learning from all the sources may be valuable but integrating what is learned is subject to the curse of dimensionality. This paper develops and analyzes algorithms that allow efficient learning and decision-making while avoiding the curse of dimensionality. We formalize the information available to the learner/decision-maker at a particular time as a context vector which the learner should consider when taking actions. In general the context vector is very high dimensional, but in many settings, the most relevant information is embedded into only a few relevant dimensions. If these relevant dimensions were known in advance, the problem would be simple -- but they are not. Moreover, the relevant dimensions may be different for different actions. Our algorithm learns the relevant dimensions for each action, and makes decisions based in what it has learned. Formally, we build on the structure of a contextual multi-armed bandit by adding and exploiting a relevance relation. We prove a general regret bound for our algorithm whose time order depends only on the maximum number of relevant dimensions among all the actions, which in the special case where the relevance relation is single-valued (a function), reduces to $\tilde{O}(T^{2(\sqrt{2}-1)})$; in the absence of a relevance relation, the best known contextual bandit algorithms achieve regret $\tilde{O}(T^{(D+1)/(D+2)})$, where $D$ is the full dimension of the context vector.

cs.LG↗

To Relay or Not to Relay: Learning Device-to-Device Relaying Strategies in Cellular Networks

We consider a cellular network where mobile transceiver devices that are owned by self-interested users are incentivized to cooperate with each other using tokens, which they exchange electronically to "buy" and "sell" downlink relay services, thereby increasing the network's capacity compared to a network that only supports base station-to-device (B2D) communications. We investigate how an individual device in the network can learn its optimal cooperation policy online, which it uses to decide whether or not to provide downlink relay services for other devices in exchange for tokens. We propose a supervised learning algorithm that devices can deploy to learn their optimal cooperation strategies online given their experienced network environment. We then systematically evaluate the learning algorithm in various deployment scenarios. Our simulation results suggest that devices have the greatest incentive to cooperate when the network contains (i) many devices with high energy budgets for relaying, (ii) many highly mobile users (e.g., users in motor vehicles), and (iii) neither too few nor too many tokens. Additionally, within the token system, self-interested devices can effectively learn to cooperate online, and achieve over 20% higher throughput on average than with B2D communications alone, all while selfishly maximizing their own utilities.

cs.GT↗