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Moulay Rchid Sidi Ammi

Publications and source records attributed to Moulay Rchid Sidi Ammi.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

Structure-Preserving Neural ODEs via Nonstandard Finite Difference Discretization

Although neural ordinary differential equations (NODEs) are a powerful framework for learning continuous-time dynamics, they generally do not preserve essential qualitative properties, such as positivity. We propose a structure-preserving Neural ODE framework based on nonstandard finite difference (NSFD) discretization. The learned dynamics are parameterized by nonnegative production and destruction rates, yielding an explicit, differentiable update that integrates seamlessly into standard automatic differentiation pipelines. We prove that the resulting scheme unconditionally preserves positivity for arbitrary time-step sizes while retaining first-order consistency. We outline an extension based on Patankar-type discretizations that preserves conservation laws exactly. Numerical experiments on an SIR epidemic model show that our approach generates physically meaningful trajectories, remains robust under coarse discretizations, and outperforms conventional NODEs in preserving the qualitative structure of the learned dynamics.

math.NA↗

A Nonstandard Finite Difference Scheme for a Nonlinear Parabolic Equation with p-Laplacian-Type Diffusion

We propose and analyze a nonstandard finite difference (NSFD) scheme for nonlinear parabolic equations involving a p-Laplacian-type diffusion operator in one- and two-dimensional spatial domains. Following Mickens' design principles, the proposed discretization employs a nonlinear denominator function phi(.) together with a nonlocal approximation of the nonlinear diffusion term Delta_p, yielding a structure-preserving discrete model. The scheme is designed to retain key qualitative properties of the continuous problem, including positivity, boundedness, and stability, which may be lost by standard finite difference methods (FDMs). We establish the well-posedness of the continuous model, derive the NSFD scheme, and investigate its consistency, convergence, and local truncation error. Numerical experiments confirm the theoretical results and demonstrate that, unlike the standard explicit FDM, the proposed NSFD scheme avoids spurious oscillations and nonphysical negative solutions even for relatively large time-step sizes.

math.NA↗

A Koopman-PINN Framework for Epidemic Models: Parameter Inference and Forecasting

We propose a Koopman-enhanced physics-informed neural network (K--PINN) framework for parameter inference and forecasting in nonlinear epidemic models. This method combines Koopman operator theory and physics-informed learning. It maps epidemic states into a latent observable space where the dynamics evolve approximately linearly while satisfying the governing epidemic equations through automatic differentiation. This integration improves interpretability, parameter identifiability, and long-term predictive stability. We apply the proposed framework to a normalized SEIRSD epidemic model and evaluate it using synthetic monkeypox (Mpox) data and real-world datasets from Germany, Morocco, and Sweden for the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Synthetic trajectories are generated using a structure-preserving, nonstandard finite difference scheme to ensure reliable training data. Numerical results demonstrate that K--PINN achieves more accurate parameter estimation, trajectory reconstruction, and long-term forecasting than classical PINNs and Koopman-EDMD approaches. These results suggest that K--PINN is an effective machine learning framework for epidemic modeling that can be extended to more complex systems.

stat.AP↗

A Nonstandard Finite Difference Scheme for an SEIQR Epidemiological PDE Model

This paper introduces a nonstandard finite difference (NSFD) approach to a reaction-diffusion SEIQR epidemiological model, which captures the spatiotemporal dynamics of infectious disease transmission. Formulated as a system of semilinear parabolic partial differential equations (PDEs), the model extends classical compartmental models by incorporating spatial diffusion to account for population movement and spatial heterogeneity. The proposed NSFD discretization is designed to preserve the continuous model's essential qualitative features, such as positivity, boundedness, and stability, which are often compromised by standard finite difference methods. We rigorously analyze the model's well-posedness, construct a structure-preserving NSFD scheme for the PDE system, and study its convergence and local truncation error. Numerical simulations validate the theoretical findings and demonstrate the scheme's effectiveness in preserving biologically consistent dynamics.

q-bio.QM↗

A Koopman Operator Framework for Nonlinear Epidemic Dynamics: Application to an SIRSD Model

We develop and analyze an SIRSD epidemic model, which extends the classical SIR framework by incorporating waning immunity and disease-induced mortality. A rigorous well-posedness analysis ensures the existence, uniqueness, positivity, and boundedness of solutions, guaranteeing the model's epidemiological feasibility. To facilitate theoretical investigations and data-driven modeling, we reformulated the system in normalized variables. To capture and predict complex nonlinear epidemic dynamics, we use the Koopman operator framework with extended dynamic mode decomposition (EDMD) and an epidemiologically informed dictionary of observables. We compare two Koopman approximations: one based on a minimal epidemiological dictionary and another enriched with nonlinear and cross terms. We generate synthetic data using a nonstandard finite difference (NSFD) scheme for four representative epidemics: SARS-CoV-2, seasonal influenza, Ebola, and measles. Numerical experiments demonstrate that the Koopman-based approach effectively identifies dominant epidemic modes and accurately predicts key outbreak characteristics, including peak infection dynamics.

math.DS↗

Actuarial Analysis of an Infectious Disease Insurance based on an SEIARD Epidemiological Model

The growing number of infectious disease outbreaks, like the one caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus, underscores the necessity of actuarial models that can adapt to epidemic-driven risks. Traditional life insurance frameworks often rely on static mortality assumptions that fail to capture the temporal and behavioral complexity of disease transmission. In this paper, we propose an integrated actuarial framework based on the SEIARD epidemiological model. This framework enables the explicit modeling of incubation periods and disease-induced mortality. We derive key actuarial quantities, including the present value of annuity benefits, payment streams, and net premiums, based on SEIARD dynamics. We formulate a prospective reserve function and analyze its evolution throughout the course of an epidemic. Additionally, we examine the forces of infection, mortality, and removal to assess their impact on epidemic-adjusted survival probabilities. Numerical simulations implemented via a nonstandard finite difference (NSFD) scheme illustrate the model's applicability under various parameter settings and insurance policy assumptions.

stat.AP↗

Spatiotemporal SEIQR Epidemic Modeling with Optimal Control for Vaccination, Treatment, and Social Measures

This paper introduces a spatiotemporal SEIQR epidemic model governed by a system of reaction-diffusion partial differential equations that incorporates optimal control strategies. The model captures the transmission dynamics of an infectious disease across space and time. It includes three time-dependent control variables: preventive measures for susceptible individuals, quarantine for infectious individuals, and treatment for quarantined individuals. The study has four main objectives: (i) to prove the existence, uniqueness, and positivity of global strong solutions using analytic semigroup theory, (ii) to demonstrate the existence of optimal control strategies through functional analysis techniques, (iii) to derive first-order necessary optimality conditions via convex perturbation methods and adjoint equations, and (iv) to perform numerical simulations to assess the effectiveness of different combinations of control interventions. The simulation results emphasize the advantages of combining pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical interventions to minimize disease prevalence and control-related expenses.

math.DS↗

Fractional differential equations of a reaction-diffusion SIR model involving the Caputo-fractional time-derivative and a nonlinear diffusion operator

The main aim of this study is to analyze a fractional parabolic SIR epidemic model of a reaction-diffusion, by using the nonlocal Caputo fractional time-fractional derivative and employing the $p$-Laplacian operator. The immunity is imposed through the vaccination program, which is regarded as a control variable. Finding the optimal control pair that reduces the number of sick people, the associated vaccination, and treatment expenses across a constrained time and space is our main study. The existence and uniqueness of the nonnegative solution for the spatiotemporal SIR model are established. It is also demonstrated that an optimal control exists. In addition, we obtain a description of the optimal control in terms of state and adjoint functions. Then, the optimality system is resolved by a discrete iterative scheme that converges after an appropriate test, similar to the forward-backward sweep method. Finally, numerical approximations are given to show the effectiveness of the proposed control program, which provides meaningful results using different values of the fractional order and $p$, respectively the order of the Caputo derivative and the $p$-Laplacian operators.

math.OC↗

Dynamical Analysis of a Cocaine-Heroin Epidemiological Model with Spatial Distributions

This article conducts an in-depth investigation of a new spatio-temporal model for the cocaine-heroin epidemiological model with vital dynamics, incorporating the Laplacian operator. The study rigorously establishes the existence, uniqueness, non-negativity, and boundedness of solutions for the proposed model. In addition, the local stability of both a drug-free equilibrium and a drug-addiction equilibrium are analyzed by studying the corresponding characteristic equations. The research provides conclusive evidence that when the basic reproductive number $\mathcal{R}_0$ exceeds 1, the drug-addiction equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable. Conversely, using comparative arguments, it is shown that if $\mathcal{R}_0$ is less than 1, the drug-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable. Furthermore, the article includes a series of numerical simulations to visually convey and support the analytical results.

math.DS↗

Stability Analysis of a Diffusive SVIR Epidemic Model with Distributed Delay, Imperfect Vaccine and General Incidence Rate

In this chapter, we consider a reaction-diffusion SVIR infection model with dis-tributed delay and nonlinear incidence rate. The wellposedness of the proposed model is proved. By means of Lyapunov functionals, we show that the disease-free equilibrium state is globally asymptotically stable when the basic reproduction number is less or equal than one, and that the disease endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable when the basic reproduction number is greater than one. Numerical simulations are provided to illustrate the obtained theoretical results.

math.DS↗

Dynamical Behavior of a Stochastic Epidemiological Model: Stationary Distribution and Extinction of a SIRS Model with Stochastic Perturbations

This paper deals with a new epidemiological model of SIRS with stochastic perturbations. The primary objective is to establish the existence of a unique non-negative nonlocal solution. Using the basic reproduction number $\mathscr{R}_0$ derived from the associated deterministic model, we demonstrate the existence of a stationary distribution in the stochastic model. In addition, we study the fluctuation of the unique solution of the deterministic problem around the disease-free equilibrium under certain conditions. In particular, we reveal scenarios where random effects induce disease extinction, contrary to the persistence predicted by the deterministic model. The theoretical insights are complemented by numerical simulations, which provide further validation of our findings.

math.DS↗

Optimal Control of a Diffusive Epidemiological Model Involving the Caputo-Fabrizio Fractional Time-Derivative

In this work we study a fractional SEIR biological model of a reaction-diffusion, using the non-singular kernel Caputo-Fabrizio fractional derivative in the Caputo sense and employing the Laplacian operator. In our PDE model, the government seeks immunity through the vaccination program, which is considered a control variable. Our study aims to identify the ideal control pair that reduces the number of infected/infectious people and the associated vaccine and treatment costs over a limited time and space. Moreover, by using the forward-backward algorithm, the approximate results are explained by dynamic graphs to monitor the effectiveness of vaccination.

math.DS↗

Mathematical Modeling and Hyers-Ulam Stability for a Nonlinear Epidemiological Model with $Φ_p$ Operator and Mittag-Leffler Kernel

This paper investigates a novel nonlinear singular fractional SI model with the $Φ_p$ operator and the Mittag-Leffler kernel. The initial investigation includes the existence, uniqueness, boundedness, and non-negativity of the solution. We then establish Hyers-Ulam stability for the proposed model in Banach space. Optimal control analysis is performed to minimize the spread of infection and maximize the population of susceptible individuals. Finally, the theoretical results are supported by numerical simulations.

nlin.CD↗

Global Stability of a Diffusive SEIR Epidemic Model with Distributed Delay

We study the global dynamics of a reaction-diffusion SEIR infection model with distributed delay and nonlinear incidence rate. The well-posedness of the proposed model is proved. By means of Lyapunov functionals, we show that the disease free equilibrium state is globally asymptotically stable when the basic reproduction number is less or equal than one, and that the disease endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable when the basic reproduction number is greater than one. Numerical simulations are provided to illustrate the obtained theoretical results.

q-bio.PE↗

Hybrid Method for Simulation of a Fractional COVID-19 Model with Real Case Application

In this research, we provide a mathematical analysis for the novel coronavirus responsible for COVID-19, which continues to be a big source of threat for humanity. Our fractional-order analysis is carried out using a non-singular kernel type operator known as the Atangana--Baleanu--Caputo (ABC) derivative. We parametrize the model adopting available information of the disease from Pakistan in the period 9th April to 2nd June 2020. We obtain the required solution with the help of a hybrid method, which is a combination of the decomposition method and the Laplace transform. Furthermore, a sensitivity analysis is carried out to evaluate the parameters that are more sensitive to the basic reproduction number of the model. Our results are compared with the real data of Pakistan and numerical plots are presented at various fractional orders.

math.DS↗

Local existence and uniqueness for a fractional SIRS model with Mittag-Leffler law

In this paper, we study an epidemic model with Atangana-Baleanu-Caputo (ABC) fractional derivatives. We obtain a special solution using an iterative scheme via Laplace transformation. Uniqueness and existence of solution using the Banach fixed point theorem are studied. A detailed analysis of the stability of the special solution is presented. Finally, our generalized model in the ABC derivative sense is solved numerically by the Adams-Bashforth-Moulton method.

math.AP↗

Necessary optimality conditions of a reaction-diffusion SIR model with ABC fractional derivatives

The main aim of the present work is to study and analyze a reaction-diffusion fractional version of the SIR epidemic mathematical model by means of the non-local and non-singular ABC fractional derivative operator with complete memory effects. Existence and uniqueness of solution for the proposed fractional model is proved. Existence of an optimal control is also established. Then, necessary optimality conditions are derived. As a consequence, a characterization of the optimal control is given. Lastly, numerical results are given with the aim to show the effectiveness of the proposed control strategy, which provides significant results using the AB fractional derivative operator in the Caputo sense, comparing it with the classical integer one. The results show the importance of choosing very well the fractional characterization of the order of the operators.

math.OC↗