arXiv subjects

N. Unger

Publications and source records attributed to N. Unger.

17 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2025

Architecture of planetary systems with and without outer giant planets I. Inner planet detections around HD 23079, HD 196067, and HD 86226

Understanding the link between outer giant planets (OGPs) and inner light planets (ILPs) is key to understanding planetary system formation and architecture. The correlation between these two populations of planets is debated both theoretically -- different formation models predict either a correlation or an anticorrelation -- and observationally. Several recent attempts to constrain this correlation have yielded contradictory results, due to small-number statistics and heterogeneous samples. We present an ongoing long-term observational effort with CORALIE, HARPS, and ESPRESSO to probe the ILP occurrence in systems with and without OGP. In this first article of a series, we discuss how, from the design to the observations, we ensured the homogeneity of the samples, both in terms of stellar properties and observing strategy. We also present the first three detections of ILPs in our OGP host sample. We find a 8.3 mE planet at 5.75 d around HD 23079, a 10.4 mE planet at 4.6 d around HD 196067, and we confirm the 7.5 mE planet at 3.98 d around HD 86226. While a rigorous statistical analysis of our samples will be performed in subsequent studies, the relatively low number of detections in our sample seems to contradict previous studies that found a strong OGP-ILP correlation.

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arXiv2025

CORALIE radial-velocity search for companions around evolved stars (CASCADES) IV: New planetary systems around HD 87816, HD 94890, and HD 102888 and an update on HD 121056

With around 200 detections of exoplanets around giant stars to date, our knowledge of the population of exoplanets orbiting evolved hosts more massive than the Sun remains limited. The CORALIE radial-velocity search for companions around evolved stars (CASCADES) was launched in 2006 with the aim of improving our understanding of the demographics of exoplanets around intermediate-mass stars, by studying them once they have evolved off the main sequence. We intend to refine the current sample of known exoplanets orbiting intermediate-mass (1.5 - 5 M$_\odot$) giant stars of spectral types G and early K. We searched for exoplanets orbiting the four stars HD 87816, HD 94890, HD 102888, and HD 121056. We used data obtained with the CORALIE spectrograph, mounted on the Leonhard Euler Swiss telescope located at La Silla Observatory in Chile. We gathered high-precision radial-velocity measurements over more than ten years for each of the aforementioned targets. We started by performing a search for periodic signals in the radial-velocity time series of the four targets by using periodograms. Following this, we fit for a Keplerian model using the significant peak with the highest power of the periodogram as the starting guess for the period. We then subtracted this model and repeated the procedure iteratively on the residuals until no significant peaks were found. Finally, to explore the posterior distribution of our models, the final solution was determined using a Markov chain Monte Carlo approach. We report the discovery of five new massive planets around HD 87816, HD 94890, and HD 102888 as well as the presence of a distant, potentially substellar, companion around HD 102888. We confirm the presence of a previously announced exoplanet orbiting the HD 121056 multi-object system with a period of 89 days and propose an update to the period of the outer companion.

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arXiv2025

In-depth characterization of the Kepler-10 three-planet system with HARPS-N radial velocities and Kepler transit timing variations

The old G3V star Kepler-10 is known to host two transiting planets, the ultra-short-period super-Earth Kepler-10b ($P=0.837$ d; $R_{\rm p}=1.47~\rm R_\oplus$) and the long-period sub-Neptune Kepler-10c ($P=45.294$ d; $R_{\rm p}=2.35~\rm R_\oplus$), and a non-transiting planet that causes variations in the Kepler-10c transit times. Measurements of the mass of Kepler-10c in the literature have shown disagreement, depending on the radial-velocity dataset and/or the modeling technique used. Here we report on the analysis of almost 300 high-precision radial velocities gathered with the HARPS-N spectrograph at the Telescopio Nazionale Galileo over $\sim11$~years, and extracted with the YARARA-v2 tool, which corrects for possible systematics and/or low-level activity variations at the spectrum level. To model these radial velocities, we used three different noise models and various numerical techniques, which all converged to the solution: $M_{\rm p, b}=3.24 \pm 0.32~\rm M_\oplus$ (10$\sigma$) and $\rho_{\rm p, b}=5.54 \pm 0.64~\rm g\;cm^{-3}$ for planet b; $M_{\rm p, c}=11.29 \pm 1.24~\rm M_\oplus$ (9$\sigma$) and $\rho_{\rm p, c}=4.75 \pm 0.53~\rm g\;cm^{-3}$ for planet c; and $M_{\rm p, d}\sin{i}=12.00 \pm 2.15~\rm M_\oplus$ (6$\sigma$) and $P=151.06 \pm 0.48$ d for the non-transiting planet Kepler-10d. This solution is further supported by the analysis of the Kepler-10c transit timing variations and their simultaneous modeling with the HARPS-N radial velocities. While Kepler-10b is consistent with a rocky composition and a small or no iron core, Kepler-10c may be a water world that formed beyond the water snowline and subsequently migrated inward.

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arXiv2025

Radial velocity homogeneous analysis of M dwarfs observed with HARPS I. Exoplanet detection and candidates

The census of planets around M dwarfs in the solar neighbourhood meets two challenges: detecting the best targets for the future characterisation of planets with ELTs, and studying the statistics of planet occurrence that are crucial to formation scenarios. The radial velocity (RV) method remains the most appropriate for such a census as it is sensitive to the widest ranges of masses and periods. HARPS, mounted on the 3.6 m telescope at La Silla Observatory (ESO, Chile), has been obtaining velocity measurements since 2003, and can therefore be used to analyse a very large and homogeneous dataset. We performed a homogeneous analysis of the RV time series of 200 M dwarfs observed with HARPS from 2003 to 2019 (gathering more than 15000 spectra), with the aim of understanding detectable signals such as stellar and planetary companions and activity signals. The RVs were computed with a template matching method before carrying out the time series analysis. First, we focused on the systematic analysis of the presence of a dominant long-term pattern in the RV time series (linear or quadratic trend and sine function). Then, we analysed higher-frequency perdiodic signals using periodograms of the residual time series and Keplerian function fitting. We found long-term variability in 57 RV time series (28.5%). This led to the revision of the parameters of the massive planet (GJ9482 b), as well as the detection of four substellar and stellar companions (around GJ3307, GJ4001, GJ4254, andGJ9588), for which we characterised inclinations and masses by combining RV and astrometry. The periodic analysis allowed us to recover 97% of the planetary systems already published in this sample, but also to propose three new planetary candidates orbiting GJ300 (7.3Me), GJ654(5Me), and GJ739 (39Me), which require additional measurements before they can be confirmed.

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arXiv2025

Revisiting the multi-planetary system of the nearby star HD 20794: Confirmation of a low-mass planet in the habitable zone of a nearby G-dwarf

Close-by Earth analogs and super-Earths are of primary importance because they will be preferential targets for the next generation of direct imaging instruments. Bright and close-by G-to-M type stars are preferential targets in radial velocity surveys to find Earth analogs. We present an analysis of the RV data of the star HD 20794, a target whose planetary system has been extensively debated in the literature. The broad time span of the observations makes it possible to find planets with signal semi-amplitudes below 1 m/s in the habitable zone. We monitored the system with ESPRESSO. We joined ESPRESSO data with the HARPS data, including archival data and new measurements from a recent program. We applied the post-processing pipeline YARARA to HARPS data to correct systematics, improve the quality of RV measurements, and mitigate the impact of stellar activity. Results. We confirm the presence of three planets, with periods of 18.3142 +/- 0.0022 d, 89.68 +/- 0.10 d, and 647.6 +/- 2.6 d, along with masses of 2.15 +/- 0.17 MEarth, 2.98 +/- 0.29 MEarth, and 5.82 +/- 0.57 MEarth respectively. For the outer planet, we find an eccentricity of 0.45 +/- 0.10, whereas the inner planets are compatible with circular orbits. The latter is likely to be a rocky planet in the habitable zone of HD 20794. From the analysis of activity indicators, we find evidence of a magnetic cycle with a period around 3000 d, along with evidence pointing to a rotation period around 39 d. We have determined the presence of a system of three planets orbiting the solar-type star HD 20794. This star is bright (V=4.34 mag) and close (d = 6.04 pc), and HD 20794 d resides in the stellar habitable zone, making this system a high-priority target for future atmospheric characterization with direct imaging facilities.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2024

Discovery of a cold giant planet and mass measurement of a hot super-Earth in the multi-planetary system WASP-132

Hot Jupiters generally do not have nearby planet companions, as they may have cleared out other planets during their inward migration from more distant orbits. This gives evidence that hot Jupiters more often migrate inward via high-eccentricity migration due to dynamical interactions between planets rather than more dynamically cool migration mechanisms through the protoplanetary disk. Here we further refine the unique system of WASP-132 by characterizing the mass of the recently validated 1.0-day period super-Earth WASP-132c (TOI-822.02), interior to the 7.1-day period hot Jupiter WASP-132b. Additionally, we announce the discovery of a giant planet at a 5-year period (2.7 AU). We also detected a long-term trend in the radial velocity data indicative of another outer companion. Using over nine years of CORALIE radial velocities (RVs) and over two months of highly sampled HARPS RVs, we determined the masses of the planets from smallest to largest orbital period to be M$_{\rm{c}}$ = $6.26^{+1.84}_{-1.83}$ $M_{\oplus}$, M$_{\rm{b}}$ = $0.428^{+0.015}_{-0.015}$ $M_{\rm{Jup}}$, and M$_{\rm{d}}\sin{i}$ = $5.16^{+0.52}_{-0.52}$ $M_{\rm{Jup}}$, respectively. Using TESS and CHEOPS photometry data, we measured the radii of the two inner transiting planets to be R$_{\rm{c}}$ = $1.841^{+0.094}_{-0.093}$ $R_{\oplus}$ and R$_{\rm{b}}$ = $0.901^{+0.038}_{-0.038}$ $R_{\rm{Jup}}$. We find a bulk density of $\rho_{\rm{c}}$ = $5.47^{+1.96}_{-1.71}$ g cm$^{-3}$ for WASP-132 c, which is slightly above the Earth-like composition line on the mass-radius diagram. WASP-132 is a unique multi-planetary system in that both an inner rocky planet and an outer giant planet are in a system with a hot Jupiter. This suggests it migrated via a rarer dynamically cool mechanism and helps to further our understanding of how hot Jupiter systems form and evolve.

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arXiv2023

Exploring the Brown Dwarf Desert with Precision Radial Velocities and Gaia DR3 Astrometric Orbits

Context. The observed scarcity of brown dwarfs in close orbits (within 10 au) around solar-type stars poses significant questions about the origins of these substellar companions. These questions impact our broader understanding of planetary formation processes. However, to resolve these formation mechanisms, accurate observational constraints are essential. Most of the brown dwarfs have been discovered by radial velocity surveys, but this method introduces uncertainties due to its inability to determine the orbital inclination, leaving the true mass-and thus their true nature-unresolved. This highlights the crucial role of astrometric data, helping us distinguish between genuine brown dwarfs and stars. Aims. We aim to refine the mass estimates of massive companions to solar-type stars, mostly discovered through radial velocity measurements and subsequently validated using Gaia DR3 astrometry, to gain a clearer understanding of their true mass and occurrence rates. Methods. We selected a sample of 31 sources with substellar companion candidates validated by Gaia DR3 and with available radial velocities. Using the Gaia DR3 solutions as prior information, we performed an MCMC fit with the available radial velocity measurements to integrate these two sources of data and thus obtain an estimate of their true mass. Results. Combining radial velocity measurements with Gaia DR3 data led to more precise mass estimations, leading us to reclassify several systems initially labeled as brown dwarfs as low-mass stars. Out of the 32 analyzed companions, 13 are determined to be stars, 17 are sub-stellar, and 2 have inconclusive results with the current data. Importantly, using these updated masses, we reevaluated the occurrence rate of brown dwarf companions (13-80 M$_{jup}$ ) on close orbits (<10 au) in the CORALIE sample, determining a tentative occurrence rate of $0.8^{+0.3}_{-0.2}\%$

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2023

The HARPS search for southern extra-solar planets. XLVII. Five Jupiter-mass planets in long-period orbits, one highly irradiated Neptune, one brown dwarf, and five stellar binaries

Our aim is to detect and characterise long-period companions around main sequence stars (spectral types late F to early M). We use the RV method to search for exoplanets around stars. The RV variations are measured with HARPS at the ESO 3.6 metre telescope. The true mass and inclination of our heavier companions are provided by astrometry, for which we use proper motions from Hipparcos and Gaia. Five Jupiter-mass exoplanets are reported to orbit HIP54597, BD-210397 (x2), HD74698, and HD94771 with 8.9 yr, 5.2 yr, 17.4 yr, 9.4 yr, and 5.9 yr orbits, and to have minimum masses of $2.01 \pm 0.03$, $0.7 \pm 0.1$, $2.4^{+1.5}_{-0.2}$, $0.40 \pm 0.06$, and $0.53 \pm 0.03 M_J$ respectively. HD74698 also hosts a highly irradiated Neptune in a 15 day orbit with a minimum mass of $0.07 \pm 0.01 M_J$. The mass of HIP54597 b can maximally increase by 10% - 30%, the minimum mass of HD74698 c is likely equal to its true mass, and BD-210397 c has a mass of $2.66^{+0.63}_{-0.32} M_J$. HD62364 hosts a brown dwarf with a true mass of $18.77^{+0.66}_{-0.63} M_J$ in an orbit of 14 yr. HD56380B, HD221638B, and HD33473C have minimum masses within the brown dwarf limits, in orbits of 8.9 yr, 16.6 yr, and 50 yr respectively; however, astrometric measurements reveal them to be stellar binaries, with masses of $375.3^{+8.6}_{-8.4}$, $110.0^{+3.9}_{-3.7}$, and $271.0^{+3.9}_{-3.8} M_J$. The orbits of the stellar binaries HD11938 and HD61383 are incomplete. The preliminary result for HD61383 is a 0.190 $M_{\odot}$ binary in a 39 yr orbit. The secondary of the binary system HD11938 has a mass of 0.33 $M_{\odot}$ - which is confirmed by a secondary peak in the CCF - and a preliminary period of 35 yr. The origin of the 3.0 yr RV signal of HD3964 is uncertain as it shows entanglement with the magnetic cycle of the star. We finally report one more star, HD11608, with a magnetic cycle that mimics a planetary signal.

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arXiv2023

The CORALIE survey for southern extrasolar planets XIX. Brown dwarfs and stellar companions unveiled by radial velocity and astrometry

A historical planet-search on a sample of 1647 nearby southern main sequence stars has been ongoing since 1998 with the CORALIE spectrograph at La Silla Observatory, with a backup subprogram dedicated to the monitoring of binary stars. We review 25 years of CORALIE measurements and search for Doppler signals consistent with stellar or brown dwarf companions to produce an updated catalog of both known and previously unpublished binary stars in the planet-search sample, assessing the binarity fraction of the stellar population and providing perspective for more precise planet-search in the binary sample. We perform new analysis on the CORALIE planet-search sample radial velocity measurements, searching for stellar companions and obtaining orbital solutions for both known and new binary systems. We perform simultaneous radial velocity and proper motion anomaly fits on the subset of these systems for which Hipparcos and Gaia astrometry measurements are available, obtaining accurate estimates of true mass for the companions. We find 218 stars in the CORALIE sample to have at least one stellar companion, 130 of which are not yet published in the literature and for which we present orbital solutions. The use of proper motion anomaly allow us to derive true masses for the stellar companions in 132 systems, which we additionally use to estimate stability regions for possible planetary companions on circumprimary or circumbinary orbits. Finally, we produce detection limit maps for each star in the sample and obtain occurrence rates of $0.43^{+0.23}_{-0.11}\%$ and $12.69^{+0.87}_{-0.77}\%$ for brown dwarf and stellar companions respectively in the CORALIE sample.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2022

Gaia DR3 astrometric orbit determination with Markov Chain Monte Carlo and Genetic Algorithms. Systems with stellar, substellar, and planetary mass companions

Astrometric discovery of sub-stellar mass companions orbiting stars is exceedingly hard due to the required sub-milliarcsecond precision, limiting the application of this technique to only a few instruments on a target-per-target basis as well as the global astrometry space missions Hipparcos and Gaia. The third Gaia data release includes the first Gaia astrometric orbital solutions, whose sensitivity in terms of estimated companion mass extends down into the planetary-mass regime. We present the contribution of the `exoplanet pipeline' to the Gaia DR3 sample of astrometric orbital solutions by describing the methods used for fitting the orbits, the identification of significant solutions, and their validation. We then present an overview of the statistical properties of the solution parameters. Using both a Markov Chain Monte Carlo and Genetic Algorithm we fit the 34 months of Gaia DR3 astrometric time series with a single Keplerian astrometric-orbit model. Verification and validation steps are taken using significance tests, internal consistency checks using the Gaia radial velocity measurements (when available), as well as literature radial velocity and astrometric data, leading to a subset of candidates that are labelled as 'validated'. We determined astrometric-orbit solutions for 1162 sources and 198 solutions have been assigned the 'validated' label. Precise companion mass estimates are presented elsewhere. From internal and external verification and validation we estimate the level of spurious/incorrect solutions in our sample to be of the order of ~5-10% in our non-'validated' candidate samples. We demonstrate that Gaia is able to confirm and sometimes refine known orbital companion orbits as well as identify new candidates, providing us with a positive outlook of the expected harvest from the full mission data in future data releases.

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arXiv2022

Efficient modeling of correlated noise. III. Scalable methods for jointly modeling several observables' time series with Gaussian processes

The radial velocity method is a very productive technique used to detect and confirm extrasolar planets. The most recent spectrographs, such as ESPRESSO or EXPRES, have the potential to detect Earth-like planets around Sun-like stars. However, stellar activity can induce radial velocity variations that dilute or even mimic the signature of a planet. A widely recognized method for disentangling these signals is to model the radial velocity time series, jointly with stellar activity indicators, using Gaussian processes and their derivatives. However, such modeling is prohibitive in terms of computational resources for large data sets, as the cost typically scales as the total number of measurements cubed. Here, we present S+LEAF 2, a Gaussian process framework that can be used to jointly model several time series, with a computational cost that scales linearly with the data set size. This framework thus provides a state-of-the-art Gaussian process model, with tractable computations even for large data sets. We illustrate the power of this framework by reanalyzing the 246 HARPS radial velocity measurements of the nearby K2 dwarf HD 138038, together with two activity indicators. We reproduce the results of a previous analysis of these data, but with a strongly decreased computational cost (more than two order of magnitude). The gain would be even greater for larger data sets.

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arXiv2021

The HARPS search for southern extra-solar planets. XLVI: 12 super-Earths around the solar type stars HD39194, HD93385, HD96700, HD154088, and HD189567

Context. We present precise radial-velocity measurements of five solar-type stars observed with the HARPS Echelle spectrograph mounted on the 3.6-m telescope in La Silla (ESO, Chile). With a time span of more than 10 years and a fairly dense sampling, the survey is sensitive to low mass planets down to super-Earths on orbital periods up to 100 days. Aims. Our goal was to search for planetary companions around the stars HD39194, HD93385, HD96700, HD154088, and HD189567 and use Bayesian model comparison to make an informed choice on the number of planets present in the systems based on the radial velocity observations. These findings will contribute to the pool of known exoplanets and better constrain their orbital parameters. Methods. A first analysis was performed using the DACE (Data & Analysis Center for Exoplanets) online tools to assess the activity level of the star and the potential planetary content of each system. We then used Bayesian model comparison on all targets to get a robust estimate of the number of planets per star. We did this using the nested sampling algorithm PolyChord. For some targets, we also compared different noise models to disentangle planetary signatures from stellar activity. Lastly, we ran an efficient MCMC (Markov chain Monte Carlo) algorithm for each target to get reliable estimates for the planets' orbital parameters. Results. We identify 12 planets within several multiplanet systems. These planets are all in the super-Earth and sub-Neptune mass regime with minimum masses ranging between 4 and 13 M$_\oplus$ and orbital periods between 5 and 103 days. Three of these planets are new, namely HD 93385 b, HD 96700 c, and HD 189567 c.

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arXiv2021

The HARPS search for southern extra-solar planets XLV. Two Neptune mass planets orbiting HD 13808: a study of stellar activity modelling's impact on planet detection

We present a comprehensive analysis of 10 years of HARPS radial velocities of the K2V dwarf star HD 13808, which has previously been reported to host two unconfirmed planet candidates. We use the state-of-the-art nested sampling algorithm PolyChord to compare a wide variety of stellar activity models, including simple models exploiting linear correlations between RVs and stellar activity indicators, harmonic models for the activity signals, and a more sophisticated Gaussian process regression model. We show that the use of overly-simplistic stellar activity models that are not well-motivated physically can lead to spurious `detections' of planetary signals that are almost certainly not real. We also reveal some difficulties inherent in parameter and model inference in cases where multiple planetary signals may be present. Our study thus underlines the importance both of exploring a variety of competing models and of understanding the limitations and precision settings of one's sampling algorithm. We also show that at least in the case of HD 13808, we always arrive at consistent conclusions about two particular signals present in the RV, regardless of the stellar activity model we adopt; these two signals correspond to the previously-reported though unconfirmed planet candidate signals. Given the robustness and precision with which we can characterize these two signals, we deem them secure planet detections. In particular, we find two planets orbiting HD 13808 at distances of 0.11, 0.26 AU with periods of 14.2, 53.8 d, and minimum masses of 11, 10 Earth masses.

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arXiv2019

Bias and robustness of eccentricity estimates from radial velocity data

Eccentricity is a parameter of particular interest as it is an informative indicator of the past of planetary systems. It is however not always clear whether the eccentricity fitted on radial velocity data is real or if it is an artefact of an inappropriate modelling. In this work, we address this question in two steps: we first assume that the model used for inference is correct and present interesting features of classical estimators. Secondly, we study whether the eccentricity estimates are to be trusted when the data contain incorrectly modelled signals, such as missed planetary companions, non Gaussian noises, correlated noises with unknown covariance, etc. Our main conclusion is that data analysis via posterior distributions, with a model including a free error term gives reliable results provided two conditions. First, convergence of the numerical methods needs to be ascertained. Secondly, the noise power spectrum should not have a particularly strong peak at the semi period of the planet of interest. As a consequence, it is difficult to determine if the signal of an apparently eccentric planet might be due to another inner companion in 2:1 mean motion resonance. We study the use of Bayes factors to disentangle these cases. Finally, we suggest methods to check if there are hints of an incorrect model in the residuals. We show on simulated data the performance of our methods and comment on the eccentricities of Proxima b and 55 Cnc f.

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arXiv2019

The SOPHIE search for northern extrasolar planets. XIV. A temperate ($T_\mathrm{eq}\sim 300$ K) super-earth around the nearby star Gliese 411

Periodic radial velocity variations in the nearby M-dwarf star Gl411 are reported, based on measurements with the SOPHIE spectrograph. Current data do not allow us to distinguish between a 12.95-day period and its one-day alias at 1.08 days, but favour the former slightly. The velocity variation has an amplitude of 1.6 m/s, making this the lowest-amplitude signal detected with SOPHIE up to now. We have performed a detailed analysis of the significance of the signal and its origin, including extensive simulations with both uncorrelated and correlated noise, representing the signal induced by stellar activity. The signal is significantly detected, and the results from all tests point to its planetary origin. Additionally, the presence of an additional acceleration in the velocity time series is suggested by the current data. On the other hand, a previously reported signal with a period of 9.9 days, detected in HIRES velocities of this star, is not recovered in the SOPHIE data. An independent analysis of the HIRES dataset also fails to unveil the 9.9-day signal. If the 12.95-day period is the real one, the amplitude of the signal detected with SOPHIE implies the presence of a planet, called Gl411 b, with a minimum mass of around three Earth masses, orbiting its star at a distance of 0.079 AU. The planet receives about 3.5 times the insolation received by Earth, which implies an equilibrium temperature between 255 K and 350 K, and makes it too hot to be in the habitable zone. At a distance of only 2.5 pc, Gl411 b, is the third closest low-mass planet detected to date. Its proximity to Earth will permit probing its atmosphere with a combination of high-contrast imaging and high-dispersion spectroscopy in the next decade.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2007

Climate simulations for 1880-2003 with GISS modelE

We carry out climate simulations for 1880-2003 with GISS modelE driven by ten measured or estimated climate forcings. An ensemble of climate model runs is carried out for each forcing acting individually and for all forcing mechanisms acting together. We compare side-by-side simulated climate change for each forcing, all forcings, observations, unforced variability among model ensemble members, and, if available, observed variability. Discrepancies between observations and simulations with all forcings are due to model deficiencies, inaccurate or incomplete forcings, and imperfect observations. Although there are notable discrepancies between model and observations, the fidelity is sufficient to encourage use of the model for simulations of future climate change. By using a fixed well-documented model and accurately defining the 1880-2003 forcings, we aim to provide a benchmark against which the effect of improvements in the model, climate forcings, and observations can be tested. Principal model deficiencies include unrealistically weak tropical El Nino-like variability and a poor distribution of sea ice, with too much sea ice in the Northern Hemisphere and too little in the Southern Hemisphere. The greatest uncertainties in the forcings are the temporal and spatial variations of anthropogenic aerosols and their indirect effects on clouds.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2006

Dangerous human-made interference with climate: A GISS modelE study

We investigate the issue of "dangerous human-made interference with climate" using simulations with GISS modelE driven by measured or estimated forcings for 1880-2003 and extended to 2100 for IPCC greenhouse gas scenarios as well as the 'alternative' scenario of Hansen and Sato. Identification of 'dangerous' effects is partly subjective, but we find evidence that added global warming of more than 1 degree C above the level in 2000 has effects that may be highly disruptive. The alternative scenario, with peak added forcing ~1.5 W/m2 in 2100, keeps further global warming under 1 degree C if climate sensitivity is \~3 degrees C or less for doubled CO2. We discuss three specific sub-global topics: Arctic climate change, tropical storm intensification, and ice sheet stability. Growth of non-CO2 forcings has slowed in recent years, but CO2 emissions are now surging well above the alternative scenario. Prompt actions to slow CO2 emissions and decrease non-CO2 forcings are needed to achieve the low forcing of the alternative scenario.

physics.ao-ph↗