arXiv subjects

Nan Rosemary Ke

Publications and source records attributed to Nan Rosemary Ke.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Do Real-World Datasets Contain Natural Experiments? An Empirical Study Using Causal Feature Selection

In nature, events that affect some individuals or groups but not others constitute an implicit intervention and are known as natural experiments. For example, the COVID-19 pandemic was an intervention by the coronavirus on the sub-population infected with COVID. We ask, do natural experiments occur in existing real-world datasets? If yes, how should we treat them? To detect natural experiments in data, we use causal discovery to recover the underlying causal graph and perform feature selection based on causal links. If downstream performance improves by treating the data as interventional rather than observational, we argue that this suggests the dataset contains natural experiments. We first validate this hypothesis by simulating datasets with and without natural experiments using synthetic graphs. We then perform a systematic empirical evaluation on a large suite of real-world datasets. Our results indicate that real-world datasets do contain natural experiments and we can take advantage of those natural experiments to improve model performance using causal inference. Our work represents the initial foray into this area, offering a preliminary exploration within a limited scope.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2025

Can foundation models actively gather information in interactive environments to test hypotheses?

Foundation models excel at single-turn reasoning but struggle with multi-turn exploration in dynamic environments, a requirement for many real-world challenges. We evaluated these models on their ability to learn from experience, adapt, and gather information. First, in "Feature World," a simple setting for testing information gathering, models performed near-optimally. However, to test more complex, multi-trial learning, we implemented a text-based version of the "Alchemy" environment, a benchmark for meta-learning. Here, agents must deduce a latent causal structure by integrating information across many trials. In this setting, recent foundation models initially failed to improve their performance over time. Crucially, we found that prompting the models to summarize their observations at regular intervals enabled an emergent meta-learning process. This allowed them to improve across trials and even adaptively re-learn when the environment's rules changed unexpectedly. While most models handled the simple task, Alchemy revealed stark differences in robustness: Gemini 2.5 performed best, followed by Claude 3.7, while ChatGPT-4o and o4-mini struggled. This underscores Alchemy's value as a benchmark. Our findings demonstrate that the biggest challenge for foundation models is not selecting informative actions in the moment, but integrating knowledge through adaptive strategies over time. Encouragingly, there appears to be no intrinsic barrier to future models mastering these abilities.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Large Language Models for Zero-shot Inference of Causal Structures in Biology

Genes, proteins and other biological entities influence one another via causal molecular networks. Causal relationships in such networks are mediated by complex and diverse mechanisms, through latent variables, and are often specific to cellular context. It remains challenging to characterise such networks in practice. Here, we present a novel framework to evaluate large language models (LLMs) for zero-shot inference of causal relationships in biology. In particular, we systematically evaluate causal claims obtained from an LLM using real-world interventional data. This is done over one hundred variables and thousands of causal hypotheses. Furthermore, we consider several prompting and retrieval-augmentation strategies, including large, and potentially conflicting, collections of scientific articles. Our results show that with tailored augmentation and prompting, even relatively small LLMs can capture meaningful aspects of causal structure in biological systems. This supports the notion that LLMs could act as orchestration tools in biological discovery, by helping to distil current knowledge in ways amenable to downstream analysis. Our approach to assessing LLMs with respect to experimental data is relevant for a broad range of problems at the intersection of causal learning, LLMs and scientific discovery.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

AI-Assisted Generation of Difficult Math Questions

Current LLM training positions mathematical reasoning as a core capability. With publicly available sources fully tapped, there is unmet demand for diverse and challenging math questions. Relying solely on human experts is both time-consuming and costly, while LLM-generated questions often lack the requisite diversity and difficulty. We present a design framework that combines the strengths of LLMs with a human-in-the-loop approach to generate a diverse array of challenging math questions. We leverage LLM metacognition skills [Didolkar et al., 2024] of a strong LLM to extract core "skills" from existing math datasets. These skills serve as the basis for generating novel and difficult questions by prompting the LLM with random pairs of core skills. The use of two different skills within each question makes finding such questions an "out of distribution" task for both LLMs and humans. Our pipeline employs LLMs to iteratively generate and refine questions and solutions through multiturn prompting. Human annotators then verify and further refine the questions, with their efficiency enhanced via further LLM interactions. Applying this pipeline on skills extracted from the MATH dataset [Hendrycks et al., 2021] resulted in MATH$^2$ - a dataset of higher-quality math questions, as evidenced by: (a) Lower performance of all models on MATH$^2$ than on MATH (b) Higher performance on MATH when using MATH$^2$ questions as in-context examples. Although focused on mathematics, our methodology seems applicable to other domains requiring structured reasoning, and potentially as a component of scalable oversight. Also of interest is a striking relationship observed between models' performance on the new dataset: the success rate on MATH$^2$ is the square on MATH, suggesting that successfully solving the question in MATH$^2$ requires a nontrivial combination of two distinct math skills.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2024

Learning Beyond Pattern Matching? Assaying Mathematical Understanding in LLMs

We are beginning to see progress in language model assisted scientific discovery. Motivated by the use of LLMs as a general scientific assistant, this paper assesses the domain knowledge of LLMs through its understanding of different mathematical skills required to solve problems. In particular, we look at not just what the pre-trained model already knows, but how it learned to learn from information during in-context learning or instruction-tuning through exploiting the complex knowledge structure within mathematics. Motivated by the Neural Tangent Kernel (NTK), we propose \textit{NTKEval} to assess changes in LLM's probability distribution via training on different kinds of math data. Our systematic analysis finds evidence of domain understanding during in-context learning. By contrast, certain instruction-tuning leads to similar performance changes irrespective of training on different data, suggesting a lack of domain understanding across different skills.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2024

Metacognitive Capabilities of LLMs: An Exploration in Mathematical Problem Solving

Metacognitive knowledge refers to humans' intuitive knowledge of their own thinking and reasoning processes. Today's best LLMs clearly possess some reasoning processes. The paper gives evidence that they also have metacognitive knowledge, including ability to name skills and procedures to apply given a task. We explore this primarily in context of math reasoning, developing a prompt-guided interaction procedure to get a powerful LLM to assign sensible skill labels to math questions, followed by having it perform semantic clustering to obtain coarser families of skill labels. These coarse skill labels look interpretable to humans. To validate that these skill labels are meaningful and relevant to the LLM's reasoning processes we perform the following experiments. (a) We ask GPT-4 to assign skill labels to training questions in math datasets GSM8K and MATH. (b) When using an LLM to solve the test questions, we present it with the full list of skill labels and ask it to identify the skill needed. Then it is presented with randomly selected exemplar solved questions associated with that skill label. This improves accuracy on GSM8k and MATH for several strong LLMs, including code-assisted models. The methodology presented is domain-agnostic, even though this article applies it to math problems.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2023

Learning How to Infer Partial MDPs for In-Context Adaptation and Exploration

To generalize across tasks, an agent should acquire knowledge from past tasks that facilitate adaptation and exploration in future tasks. We focus on the problem of in-context adaptation and exploration, where an agent only relies on context, i.e., history of states, actions and/or rewards, rather than gradient-based updates. Posterior sampling (extension of Thompson sampling) is a promising approach, but it requires Bayesian inference and dynamic programming, which often involve unknowns (e.g., a prior) and costly computations. To address these difficulties, we use a transformer to learn an inference process from training tasks and consider a hypothesis space of partial models, represented as small Markov decision processes that are cheap for dynamic programming. In our version of the Symbolic Alchemy benchmark, our method's adaptation speed and exploration-exploitation balance approach those of an exact posterior sampling oracle. We also show that even though partial models exclude relevant information from the environment, they can nevertheless lead to good policies.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

DiscoGen: Learning to Discover Gene Regulatory Networks

Accurately inferring Gene Regulatory Networks (GRNs) is a critical and challenging task in biology. GRNs model the activatory and inhibitory interactions between genes and are inherently causal in nature. To accurately identify GRNs, perturbational data is required. However, most GRN discovery methods only operate on observational data. Recent advances in neural network-based causal discovery methods have significantly improved causal discovery, including handling interventional data, improvements in performance and scalability. However, applying state-of-the-art (SOTA) causal discovery methods in biology poses challenges, such as noisy data and a large number of samples. Thus, adapting the causal discovery methods is necessary to handle these challenges. In this paper, we introduce DiscoGen, a neural network-based GRN discovery method that can denoise gene expression measurements and handle interventional data. We demonstrate that our model outperforms SOTA neural network-based causal discovery methods.

q-bio.MN↗

arXiv2022

Temporal Latent Bottleneck: Synthesis of Fast and Slow Processing Mechanisms in Sequence Learning

Recurrent neural networks have a strong inductive bias towards learning temporally compressed representations, as the entire history of a sequence is represented by a single vector. By contrast, Transformers have little inductive bias towards learning temporally compressed representations, as they allow for attention over all previously computed elements in a sequence. Having a more compressed representation of a sequence may be beneficial for generalization, as a high-level representation may be more easily re-used and re-purposed and will contain fewer irrelevant details. At the same time, excessive compression of representations comes at the cost of expressiveness. We propose a solution which divides computation into two streams. A slow stream that is recurrent in nature aims to learn a specialized and compressed representation, by forcing chunks of $K$ time steps into a single representation which is divided into multiple vectors. At the same time, a fast stream is parameterized as a Transformer to process chunks consisting of $K$ time-steps conditioned on the information in the slow-stream. In the proposed approach we hope to gain the expressiveness of the Transformer, while encouraging better compression and structuring of representations in the slow stream. We show the benefits of the proposed method in terms of improved sample efficiency and generalization performance as compared to various competitive baselines for visual perception and sequential decision making tasks.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

Learning Latent Structural Causal Models

Causal learning has long concerned itself with the accurate recovery of underlying causal mechanisms. Such causal modelling enables better explanations of out-of-distribution data. Prior works on causal learning assume that the high-level causal variables are given. However, in machine learning tasks, one often operates on low-level data like image pixels or high-dimensional vectors. In such settings, the entire Structural Causal Model (SCM) -- structure, parameters, \textit{and} high-level causal variables -- is unobserved and needs to be learnt from low-level data. We treat this problem as Bayesian inference of the latent SCM, given low-level data. For linear Gaussian additive noise SCMs, we present a tractable approximate inference method which performs joint inference over the causal variables, structure and parameters of the latent SCM from random, known interventions. Experiments are performed on synthetic datasets and a causally generated image dataset to demonstrate the efficacy of our approach. We also perform image generation from unseen interventions, thereby verifying out of distribution generalization for the proposed causal model.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

Learning to Induce Causal Structure

The fundamental challenge in causal induction is to infer the underlying graph structure given observational and/or interventional data. Most existing causal induction algorithms operate by generating candidate graphs and evaluating them using either score-based methods (including continuous optimization) or independence tests. In our work, we instead treat the inference process as a black box and design a neural network architecture that learns the mapping from both observational and interventional data to graph structures via supervised training on synthetic graphs. The learned model generalizes to new synthetic graphs, is robust to train-test distribution shifts, and achieves state-of-the-art performance on naturalistic graphs for low sample complexity.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2022

Towards Understanding How Machines Can Learn Causal Overhypotheses

Recent work in machine learning and cognitive science has suggested that understanding causal information is essential to the development of intelligence. The extensive literature in cognitive science using the ``blicket detector'' environment shows that children are adept at many kinds of causal inference and learning. We propose to adapt that environment for machine learning agents. One of the key challenges for current machine learning algorithms is modeling and understanding causal overhypotheses: transferable abstract hypotheses about sets of causal relationships. In contrast, even young children spontaneously learn and use causal overhypotheses. In this work, we present a new benchmark -- a flexible environment which allows for the evaluation of existing techniques under variable causal overhypotheses -- and demonstrate that many existing state-of-the-art methods have trouble generalizing in this environment. The code and resources for this benchmark are available at https://github.com/CannyLab/casual_overhypotheses.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

On the Generalization and Adaption Performance of Causal Models

Learning models that offer robust out-of-distribution generalization and fast adaptation is a key challenge in modern machine learning. Modelling causal structure into neural networks holds the promise to accomplish robust zero and few-shot adaptation. Recent advances in differentiable causal discovery have proposed to factorize the data generating process into a set of modules, i.e. one module for the conditional distribution of every variable where only causal parents are used as predictors. Such a modular decomposition of knowledge enables adaptation to distributions shifts by only updating a subset of parameters. In this work, we systematically study the generalization and adaption performance of such modular neural causal models by comparing it to monolithic models and structured models where the set of predictors is not constrained to causal parents. Our analysis shows that the modular neural causal models outperform other models on both zero and few-shot adaptation in low data regimes and offer robust generalization. We also found that the effects are more significant for sparser graphs as compared to denser graphs.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

Retrieval-Augmented Reinforcement Learning

Most deep reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms distill experience into parametric behavior policies or value functions via gradient updates. While effective, this approach has several disadvantages: (1) it is computationally expensive, (2) it can take many updates to integrate experiences into the parametric model, (3) experiences that are not fully integrated do not appropriately influence the agent's behavior, and (4) behavior is limited by the capacity of the model. In this paper we explore an alternative paradigm in which we train a network to map a dataset of past experiences to optimal behavior. Specifically, we augment an RL agent with a retrieval process (parameterized as a neural network) that has direct access to a dataset of experiences. This dataset can come from the agent's past experiences, expert demonstrations, or any other relevant source. The retrieval process is trained to retrieve information from the dataset that may be useful in the current context, to help the agent achieve its goal faster and more efficiently. he proposed method facilitates learning agents that at test-time can condition their behavior on the entire dataset and not only the current state, or current trajectory. We integrate our method into two different RL agents: an offline DQN agent and an online R2D2 agent. In offline multi-task problems, we show that the retrieval-augmented DQN agent avoids task interference and learns faster than the baseline DQN agent. On Atari, we show that retrieval-augmented R2D2 learns significantly faster than the baseline R2D2 agent and achieves higher scores. We run extensive ablations to measure the contributions of the components of our proposed method.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

On the Convergence of Continuous Constrained Optimization for Structure Learning

Recently, structure learning of directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) has been formulated as a continuous optimization problem by leveraging an algebraic characterization of acyclicity. The constrained problem is solved using the augmented Lagrangian method (ALM) which is often preferred to the quadratic penalty method (QPM) by virtue of its standard convergence result that does not require the penalty coefficient to go to infinity, hence avoiding ill-conditioning. However, the convergence properties of these methods for structure learning, including whether they are guaranteed to return a DAG solution, remain unclear, which might limit their practical applications. In this work, we examine the convergence of ALM and QPM for structure learning in the linear, nonlinear, and confounded cases. We show that the standard convergence result of ALM does not hold in these settings, and demonstrate empirically that its behavior is akin to that of the QPM which is prone to ill-conditioning. We further establish the convergence guarantee of QPM to a DAG solution, under mild conditions. Lastly, we connect our theoretical results with existing approaches to help resolve the convergence issue, and verify our findings in light of an empirical comparison of them.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

Neural Production Systems: Learning Rule-Governed Visual Dynamics

Visual environments are structured, consisting of distinct objects or entities. These entities have properties -- both visible and latent -- that determine the manner in which they interact with one another. To partition images into entities, deep-learning researchers have proposed structural inductive biases such as slot-based architectures. To model interactions among entities, equivariant graph neural nets (GNNs) are used, but these are not particularly well suited to the task for two reasons. First, GNNs do not predispose interactions to be sparse, as relationships among independent entities are likely to be. Second, GNNs do not factorize knowledge about interactions in an entity-conditional manner. As an alternative, we take inspiration from cognitive science and resurrect a classic approach, production systems, which consist of a set of rule templates that are applied by binding placeholder variables in the rules to specific entities. Rules are scored on their match to entities, and the best fitting rules are applied to update entity properties. In a series of experiments, we demonstrate that this architecture achieves a flexible, dynamic flow of control and serves to factorize entity-specific and rule-based information. This disentangling of knowledge achieves robust future-state prediction in rich visual environments, outperforming state-of-the-art methods using GNNs, and allows for the extrapolation from simple (few object) environments to more complex environments.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2022

Coordination Among Neural Modules Through a Shared Global Workspace

Deep learning has seen a movement away from representing examples with a monolithic hidden state towards a richly structured state. For example, Transformers segment by position, and object-centric architectures decompose images into entities. In all these architectures, interactions between different elements are modeled via pairwise interactions: Transformers make use of self-attention to incorporate information from other positions; object-centric architectures make use of graph neural networks to model interactions among entities. However, pairwise interactions may not achieve global coordination or a coherent, integrated representation that can be used for downstream tasks. In cognitive science, a global workspace architecture has been proposed in which functionally specialized components share information through a common, bandwidth-limited communication channel. We explore the use of such a communication channel in the context of deep learning for modeling the structure of complex environments. The proposed method includes a shared workspace through which communication among different specialist modules takes place but due to limits on the communication bandwidth, specialist modules must compete for access. We show that capacity limitations have a rational basis in that (1) they encourage specialization and compositionality and (2) they facilitate the synchronization of otherwise independent specialists.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

Learning Neural Causal Models with Active Interventions

Discovering causal structures from data is a challenging inference problem of fundamental importance in all areas of science. The appealing properties of neural networks have recently led to a surge of interest in differentiable neural network-based methods for learning causal structures from data. So far, differentiable causal discovery has focused on static datasets of observational or fixed interventional origin. In this work, we introduce an active intervention targeting (AIT) method which enables a quick identification of the underlying causal structure of the data-generating process. Our method significantly reduces the required number of interactions compared with random intervention targeting and is applicable for both discrete and continuous optimization formulations of learning the underlying directed acyclic graph (DAG) from data. We examine the proposed method across multiple frameworks in a wide range of settings and demonstrate superior performance on multiple benchmarks from simulated to real-world data.

stat.ML↗