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Nicholas F. Wogan

Publications and source records attributed to Nicholas F. Wogan.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

Preparing for the Early eVolution Explorer: The Impact of Flare Temperature on Ozone Column Depth in Earth-Like Atmospheres

Atmospheric photochemical models incorporating the impacts of stellar flares often assume a $\sim$9,000 K spectrum at ultraviolet-optical wavelengths. Recent multiwavelength observations, however, reveal a more complex picture with temperature measurements spanning 4,000-40,000 K, although the occurrence rates for flares with different temperatures remain unknown. Here, we model the evolution of a Proterozoic Earth-like world with 0.01 bar of O$_2$ under repeated flaring to identify the impact of flare effective temperatures. We explore four scenarios - two host star types (K2V and M2.5V) and two flare temperatures (9,000 K and 19,000 K) - selected to bound the potential parameter space. The hotter flares have a larger impact on O$_3$ photochemistry for both stellar types. M-star planetary atmospheres are more volatile and exhibit rapid changes in their O$_3$ production and destruction rates. Meanwhile, K-star planetary atmospheres are more stable and are only impacted by the hottest flares, proving advantageous for biosignature searches. We simulate 0.2-1.0 $\mu$m reflected light spectra for all four scenarios, and find that 19,000 K flares can result in either production or destruction of O$_3$ depending on the host star spectral type increasing the 0.2 $\mu$m feature by $\sim$2$\times$ for the K2V star but decreasing it by 50% for the M2.5V star. Future missions such as the EVE SMEX mission concept will provide robust flare temperature constraints for young FGKM stars, which will serve as inputs to improve photochemical models to inform future HWO observations.

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The Sonora Substellar Atmosphere Models. VII. Flame Skimmer: Cloud-free Atmospheric and Evolutionary Models for the Coldest Substellar Objects

JWST has provided unprecedented access to ultra-cool brown dwarfs and has pushed the boundaries of directly imaging temperate giant planets. As we continue to push toward detecting sub-Saturn and Neptune-like planets, it is crucial to develop atmospheric and evolutionary models that better capture the complexity and diversity of planetary atmospheres similar to the gas and ice giants in our Solar System. We present Sonora Flame Skimmer, the next suite of cloud-free 1D atmospheric and evolutionary models in chemical equilibrium and disequilibrium probing colder temperatures (down to 50 K), smaller objects (down to log(g) = 2), and a wide range of metallicities (10x sub-solar to 100x super-solar) and C/O ratios (solar to 2.5x solar). Beyond expanding the physical parameter space of previous Sonora models, we update the opacities and evolutionary model framework from Sonora Bobcat, as well as the chemical treatment of volatiles (H$_2$O, CH$_4$, NH$_3$) and carbon species such as CO$_2$ from Sonora Elf Owl. For the evolution of these substellar objects, we find that high-metallicity atmospheres lead to slower cooling compared to solar metallicity, while the strength of vertical mixing ($K_{\rm zz}$) has a negligible impact on the evolutionary tracks. At the highest metallicity explored here (100$\times$ solar), the deuterium-burning and hydrogen-burning minimum masses fall to 5.39 and 45.03 $M_{\rm J}$, respectively. All the models presented here, including the atmospheric structure, chemical profiles, spectra, synthetic photometry, and evolutionary models, are publicly available.

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Ultraviolet-Driven Atmospheric Degeneracies Challenge Conventional Biosignature Frameworks for Terrestrial Planets with Ultracool M Dwarf Hosts: An Archean-Analog TRAPPIST-1 e Case Study

The ultraviolet (UV) spectrum of a host star strongly shapes the atmospheric composition and potential biosignatures of its planets. This relationship may be especially important for the planets orbiting TRAPPIST-1, an M8V star with substantially different published UV spectral energy distributions (SEDs). Using a one-dimensional photochemical model, we quantify how these SED uncertainties affect Archean Earth-like atmospheric analogs on TRAPPIST-1 e with and without biospheres. We emphasize Earth's Archean epoch because it represents a planet in transition from primarily abiotic to biotic controls on atmospheric composition. Different stellar spectra produce order-of-magnitude variations in the predicted abundances of CH4, CO, O2, and O3, thereby generating photochemical degeneracies that complicate the interpretation of potential biosignatures. For one TRAPPIST-1 UV reconstruction, a modeled atmosphere with abiotic deposition velocities and volcanic CH4 input can sustain simultaneous spectrally discernible CH4 and O3, yielding a potential false-positive disequilibrium biosignature. For all SEDs tested, surface deposition consistent with microbially-mediated CO consumption allows substantial O2 and O3 accumulation even without oxygenic photosynthesis, implying that oxygen-rich atmospheres around ultracool M dwarfs may not uniquely trace oxygenic ecosystems. Across our models, CO remains a powerful discriminator between abiotic and biotic surface boundary assumptions. Overall, we show that the abundances of co-occurring CH4, CO, and O3 can vary by orders of magnitude, depending on the assumed UV SED, creating ambiguities in interpreting atmospheric biosignatures, though observability may be challenging with current capabilities. Reducing UV spectral uncertainties is therefore essential for assessing surface-to-atmosphere interactions of temperate exoplanets around ultracool M dwarfs.

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Impact of Clouds on the Atmosphere-Mantle Interface of Sub-Neptunes

Sub-Neptunes are among the most common type of close-in planets found in our galaxy, yet their bulk composition remains largely uncertain; H-rich envelopes overlaying rocky cores, volatile-rich planets, and carbon-rich interiors all remain viable configurations for members of this population. Atmospheric characterization has been proposed as a means of distinguishing between these scenarios, but growing evidence suggests that sub-Neptunes may host molten atmosphere-mantle interfaces which could alter the composition of their atmosphere. We use the PICASO 1D climate model, coupled to interior-structure and magma-atmosphere chemistry frameworks to quantify how clouds alter the atmospheric and interior structure of sub-Neptunes. For temperate sub-Neptunes like TOI-270 d, we find that clouds can lead to $\ge{1000}$ K heating at depth (${\sim}10^{4}$ bar) and $\sim{600}$ K cooling at shallow pressures ($\sim$1 bar). This heating is very sensitive to the cloud sedimentation efficiency and, to a lesser extent, to metallicity. Most sub-Neptunes in our sample should have a molten atmosphere-mantle interface, except TOI-1231 b and GJ 1214 b. For these two planets, cloudy models have a molten interface whereas clear models can allow a solid boundary. Clouds can heat the atmosphere-mantle interfaces by a temperature difference between $\sim{1400}-2600$ K for most sub-Neptunes in our sample. Such cloud-driven heating can substantially change the composition of the interface with abundances of O$_2$, SiH$_4$, and SiO showing a $\ge{36}$\% increase between cloudy and clear models of TOI-270 d. We discuss the implications of our results for the thermal evolution and measurements of intrinsic heat flux for this population.

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JWST COMPASS Program: The 3--5$\mu$m transmission spectrum of LTT 1445 A b

The search for an atmosphere on the closest rocky M dwarf planet, LTT 1445 A b, has been the subject of intense investigation from both the ground and space. Here, we present the first JWST transmission spectrum of LTT 1445 A b using a single visit spanning 3-5~$\mu$m using NIRSpec/G395H. We conduct two independent reductions of the data using both the Eureka! and ExoTiC-JEDI pipelines. Overall, we measure the NRS1 transit depths to a median precision of $\sim23$~ppm in 41 spectroscopic channels with uniform widths of 30 pixels ($\sim$ 0.02 $\mu$m), and the NRS2 transit depths to $\sim36$~ppm precision in 65 spectroscopic channels, also with uniform widths of 30 pixels. We rule out any statistically significant spectral features at this precision and place limits on atmospheric metallicity using a grid of chemical equilibrium models with grey opaque clouds. Using NIRSpec/G395H alone, we can place limits on the atmospheric metallicity of $\gtrsim350~\times$ Solar when the opaque pressure level is greater than 0.01~bars. We also conduct a combined analysis of JWST/NIRSpec and HST/WFC3 transmission data and find our atmospheric limits can be extended $\gtrsim500~\times$ Solar when considering both datasets. Future analyses both in transit and emission will uncover whether there are detectable atmospheric features.

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Toward Inferring the Surface Fluxes of Biosignature Gases on Rocky Exoplanets from Telescope Spectra

The James Webb Space Telescope and the future Habitable Worlds Observatory aim to discover exoplanet atmospheric spectra that detect life. Currently, most existing spectral "retrieval" algorithms focus on inferring the abundances of biogenic gases from these spectra. However, abundances are hard to interpret as signatures of life because they are modified by photochemistry, climate, and atmospheric escape. To address this problem, we develop a method for inferring the fluxes of gases at a planetary surface by inverting a coupled photochemical-climate model. As a proof-of-concept, we apply the approach to a synthetic 10-transit JWST NIRSpec Prism spectrum of TRAPPIST-1 e assuming it hosts a biosphere similar to the Archean Earth's. The retrieval confidently detects CO$_2$ and CH$_4$ and can constrain the flux of CH$_4$ into the atmosphere to within approximately 1.5 orders of magnitude (68$\%$ credible interval) provided that TRAPPIST-1's near-UV spectrum is accurately known. We demonstrate how inferred surface gas fluxes naturally fold into a probabilistic assessment of life, finding that ~ 80$\%$ of the surface gas flux posterior is consistent with a CH$_4$-producing metabolism for our nominal test case. As with any inverse problem, these results are conditional on a number of assumptions in our forward model. Overall, we argue that increasing the robustness of life detection on exoplanets requires moving beyond atmospheric abundances toward inference of the surface fluxes that sustain them.

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JWST COMPASS: NIRSpec/G395H Transmission Observations of the Sub-Neptune HD 15337 c

We present the 3-5 $\mu$m transmission spectrum of HD 15337 c (TOI-402.02), a sub-Neptune (2.526 R$_{\oplus}$, 6.792 M$_{\oplus}$, T$_{\rm eq}$$\sim$656 K) around a K1V star observed as part of the JWST COMPASS program. We reduce these observations with two pipelines and find consistent transmission spectra. The resulting median precisions in 30 pixel spectroscopic bins for visit 1 are $\sim$40 ppm and $\sim$70 ppm and for visit 2 are $\sim$30 ppm and $\sim$54 ppm for NRS1 and NRS2, respectively. We attribute the differing precisions to the lack of adequate pre-transit baseline in visit 1 from an early transit arrival caused by previously undetected transit timing variations (TTVs), hinting at a potential exterior companion. Our median JWST timing precision is 10 seconds, revealing TTVs $>$20 minutes when combined with previous TESS and CHEOPS data, highlighting JWST's TTV measurement capabilities. The transmission spectrum of HD 15337 c is featureless and can best be described by a step function with an offset between the NRS1 and NRS2 detectors, likely caused by instrumental systematics. From thermochemical equilibrium retrievals we find that, to $>$3$\sigma$, the data can rule out atmospheres with metallicities $<$600 or $<$310 $\times$ solar, depending on the reduction, for opaque pressures greater than a few millibars. HD 15337 c joins other sub-Neptunes with similar masses, radii, and temperatures in possessing a featureless transmission spectrum indicative of high metallicity and/or high-altitude aerosols and adds support to recent studies showing that aerosol opacity reaches a maximum for planets with equilibrium temperatures of 500-700 K.

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PICASO 4.0: Clouds and Photochemistry in Climate Models of Brown Dwarfs and Exoplanets

We present a major update to the open-source atmospheric modeling package \texttt{PICASO}, designed for simulating the thermal structure and spectra of hydrogen-rich atmospheres of brown dwarfs and exoplanets. This release, \texttt{PICASO 4.0}, expands upon the existing radiative-convective equilibrium model framework by incorporating several new capabilities. Key additions include the integration of \texttt{Virga} for self-consistent cloud modeling, new flexible treatments for rainout and cold trapping of volatile species, and support for photochemistry. We also introduce a parameterized energy injection scheme to simulate additional external or internal heating processes. These features are motivated by lessons from recent JWST observations that reveal the prevalence of non-equilibrium chemistry and clouds. We benchmark the new functionalities against previously published results in the literature, including the Sonora Diamondback grid, energy injected atmospheres, patchy cloud models, and other photochemical models of WASP-39b. \texttt{PICASO} continues to be actively developed as an open-source package aimed at enabling reproducible, community-driven atmospheric modeling of all substellar objects.

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JWST spectral retrieval of cold directly imaged planet WD0806 b and the first measurement of altitude-dependent K$_{zz}$ in exoplanet atmospheres

WD0806 b is a rare exoplanet companion orbiting a white dwarf, currently with a projected orbital distance of 2500 au. The Spitzer mid-IR photometry suggests that the temperature is as cold as 350K, making it one of the coldest directly imaged exoplanets. In this paper, we present the Near-infrared Camera (NIRCam) F150W2, F200W, F356W, and F444W broadband photometry and a 3--5\um Near-Infrared spectroscopy (NIRSpec) G395M spectrum obtained with the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST). We develop a new retrieval framework based on the open-source PICASO software that includes additive and multiplicative systematic parameters. Our retrieval results reveal bounded abundances of H$_2$S, CO$_2$, CO, NH$_3$, H$_2$O, and CH$_4$. We present a new chemical analysis framework that utilizes retrieved abundances to measure altitude-dependent eddy diffusion coefficients (K$_{\mathrm zz}$) at multiple quenched pressures. We find that the eddy diffusion coefficients decrease from around $10^4$ to $10^2$ $\rm cm^2/s$ as the atmospheric pressure decreases from from 50 to 20 bars. To our knowledge, this is the first study to report altitude-dependent vertical mixing (or, equivalently, quenched-species-dependent vertical mixing) based on the measured molecular abundances of CO, CH$_4$, and CO$_2$. With the 1--21\um NIRCam, NIRSpec and the previously published MIRI data, we measure the bolometric luminosity to be log(L/L$_{\odot}$) = $-6.75\pm0.01$ and derive the mass to be $8\pm 1 \mathrm{M_J}$. The retrieval results suggest that \target has an elevated C/O ratio of 0.76, or 1.3$\times$ solar, sub-solar metallicity ([M/H ]= -0.25), and a nearly solar C/S ratio (1.17x solar).

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A whole-planet model of the Earth without life for terrestrial exoplanet studies

As the only known habitable (and inhabited) planet in the universe, Earth informs our search for life elsewhere. Future telescopes like the Habitable Worlds Observatory (HWO) will soon look for life on rocky worlds around Sun-like stars, so it is critical that we understand how to distinguish habitable planets from inhabited planets. However, it remains unknown if life is necessary to maintain a habitable planet, or how all of the components of an evolving planet impact habitability over time. As a first step toward answering these questions, we present a coupled interior-atmosphere evolution model of the Earth without life from 50 Myr to 5 Gyr that reproduces 19 key observations of the pre-industrial Earth after 4.5 Gyr within estimated measurement uncertainties. We also produce a reflected light spectrum covering the possible wavelength range of HWO. Our findings suggest that life may not be required to maintain long-term habitable surface conditions. The model presented here is apt for predicting the long-term habitability of Earth-like exoplanets by coupling the interior and surface evolution. By generating realistic reflected light spectra from evolved atmospheric states, this model represents significant progress towards characterizing the observability of whole-planet evolution, which may ultimately provide a robust abiotic baseline for interpreting biosignature observations with HWO.

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The Role of Intrinsic Temperature and Vertical Mixing in Characterizing Sub-Neptune Atmospheres

Sub-Neptune planets are often modeled with a dense rocky or metal-rich interior beneath a thick hydrogen/helium (H/He) atmosphere; though their bulk densities could also be explained by a water-rich interior with a thin H/He atmosphere. Atmospheric composition provides a key mechanism to break this degeneracy between competing interior models. However, the overall composition of sub-Neptunes inferred from spectra obtained with the James Webb Space Telescope, remains debated in part due to differences in modeling assumptions. While previous studies explored parameter spaces such as stellar spectra, atmospheric metallicities, and carbon-to-oxygen ratios, they often assumed fixed intrinsic temperatures (Tint) and vertical eddy diffusion coefficients (Kzz) - two critical, yet poorly constrained, drivers of atmospheric chemistry. To address this, we present a self-consistent grid of models that covers the full plausible range of Tint (60 - 450 K) and Kzz (10^{5} - 10^{12} cm^2/s) using the open-source PICASO and VULCAN packages to better characterize sub-Neptune atmospheres. Focusing on K2-18b analogs, we demonstrate that Tint and Kzz significantly impact CH4, CO2, CO, NH3 and HCN abundances, with H2O being largely unaffected. Our work demonstrates that comprehensive parameter space exploration of thermal and mixing parameters is essential for accurate interpretation of sub-Neptune spectra, and that single-parameter assumptions can lead to misclassification of planetary interiors. We provide a diagnostic framework using multi-molecule observations to distinguish between competing atmospheric models and advance robust characterization of sub-Neptunes.

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Magma ocean interactions can explain JWST observations of the sub-Neptune TOI-270 d

Sub-Neptunes with substantial atmospheres may possess magma oceans in contact with the overlying gas, with chemical interactions between the atmosphere and magma playing an important role in shaping atmospheric composition. Early JWST observations have found high abundances of carbon- and oxygen-bearing molecules in a number of sub-Neptune atmospheres, which may result from processes including accretion of icy material at formation or magma-atmosphere interactions. Previous work examining the effects of magma-atmosphere interactions on sub-Neptunes has mostly been limited to studying conditions at the atmosphere-mantle boundary, without considering implications for the upper atmosphere which is probed by spectroscopic observations. In this work, we present a modeling architecture to determine observable signatures of magma-atmosphere interactions. We combine an equilibrium chemistry code which models reactions between the core, mantle and atmosphere with a radiative-convective model that determines the composition and structure of the observable upper atmosphere. We examine how different conditions at the atmosphere-mantle boundary and different core and mantle compositions impact the upper atmospheric composition. We compare our models to JWST NIRISS+NIRSpec observations of the sub-Neptune TOI-270~d, finding that our models can provide a good fit to the observed transmission spectrum with little fine-tuning. This suggests that magma-atmosphere interactions may be sufficient to explain high abundances of molecules such as H$_2$O, CH$_4$ and CO$_2$ in sub-Neptune atmospheres, without additional accretion of icy material from the protoplanetary disk. Although other processes could lead to similar compositions, our work highlights the need to consider magma-atmosphere interactions when interpreting the observed atmospheric composition of a sub-Neptune.

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JADES: An Abundance of Ultra-Distant T- and Y-Dwarfs in Deep Extragalactic Data

Ultra-cool T- (T$_{\mathrm{eff}} \approx$ 500 - 1200 K) and Y-dwarfs (T$_{\mathrm{eff}}$ $\lessapprox 500$ K) have historically been found only a few hundred parsecs from the Sun. The sensitivity and wavelength coverage of the NIRCam instrument on board the James Webb Space Telescope offer a unique method for finding low-temperature brown dwarfs in deep extragalactic datasets out to multiple kiloparsecs. Here we report on the selection of a sample of 41 brown dwarf and brown dwarf candidates across the JWST Advanced Deep Extragalactic Survey (JADES) in the GOODS-S and GOODS-N regions. We introduce a new open-source Bayesian tool, the Near-Infrared Fitting for T and Y-dwarfs (\texttt{NIFTY}), to derive effective temperatures, metallicities, and distances from JWST photometry. We find that 31 candidates have fits consistent with T-dwarf temperatures out to 5 - 6 kpc, and 10 candidates have fits consistent with Y-dwarf temperatures out to 1 - 2 kpc. The majority of the sources are best fit with sub-solar metallicity models, consistent with them being subdwarfs in the Milky Way thick disk and halo. We report proper motions for nine brown dwarf candidates (three are newly presented), and calculate the number density of T- and Y-dwarfs as a function of temperature and distance above the Milky Way midplane. We further discuss how Y-dwarfs can serve as contaminants in the search for ultra-high-redshift galaxies. Together, these results demonstrate the power of deep JWST extragalactic imaging to probe the coldest substellar populations far beyond the solar neighborhood, providing new constraints on the Milky Way's structure and brown dwarf demographics.

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The Open-Source Photochem Code: A General Chemical and Climate Model for Interpreting (Exo)Planet Observations

With the launch of the James Webb Space Telescope, we are firmly in the era of exoplanet atmosphere characterization. Understanding exoplanet spectra requires atmospheric chemical and climate models that span the diversity of planetary atmospheres. Here, we present a more general chemical and climate model of planetary atmospheres. Specifically, we introduce the open-source, one-dimensional photochemical and climate code Photochem, and benchmark the model against the observed compositions and climates of Venus, Earth, Mars, Jupiter and Titan with a single set of kinetics, thermodynamics and opacities. We also model the chemistry of the hot Jupiter exoplanet WASP-39b. All simulations are open-source and reproducible. To first order, Photochem broadly reproduces the gas-phase chemistry and pressure-temperature profiles of all six planets. The largest model-data discrepancies are found in Venus's sulfur chemistry, motivating future experimental work on sulfur kinetics and spacecraft missions to Venus. We also find that clouds and hazes are important for the energy balance of Venus, Earth, Mars and Titan, and that accurately predicting aerosols with Photochem is challenging. Finally, we benchmark Photochem against the popular VULCAN and HELIOS photochemistry and climate models, finding excellent agreement for the same inputs; we also find that Photochem simulates atmospheres 2 to 100 time more efficiently. These results show that Photochem provides a comparatively general description of atmospheric chemistry and physics that can be leveraged to study Solar System worlds or interpret telescope observations of exoplanets.

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Polarized Signatures of Variable Worlds: Modeling Heterogeneous Habitable Earth- and Early Mars-like (Exo)planets

Determining the habitability of terrestrial exoplanets is a complex problem that represents the next major step for the astrophysical community. The majority of current models treat these planets as homogeneous or contain heterogeneity that is constant in time. In reality, habitable exoplanets are expected to contain atmospheric and surface heterogeneities similar to Earth, with diurnal rotation, seasonal changes, and weather patterns resulting in complex, time-dependent signatures. Due to its ability to measure light as a vector, polarimetry provides an important tool that will enhance the characterizations of heterogeneous worlds. Here we model the visible to near-infrared linear spectropolarimetric signatures, as functions of wavelength and planetary phase angle, of various heterogeneous Earth scenarios as well as the first signals of an early wet and potentially habitable Mars. The contributions from the different atmospheric and surface properties result in asymmetric phase curves and variable spectra, with the polarization appearing to be more sensitive than flux to heterogeneities such as patchy clouds and continents moving into and out-of-view. Our models provide important predictions of expected polarized and unpolarized signatures of heterogeneous exoplanets that will help guide the designs and observing plans of future polarimeters, including those proposed for the upcoming Habitable Worlds Observatory.

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The Photochemical Plausibility of Warm Exo-Titans Orbiting M-Dwarf Stars

The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) has begun to spectrally characterize small exoplanets orbiting M-dwarf stars, but interpretation of these spectra is ambiguous, with stellar, instrumental, or atmospheric origins possible for apparent spectral features. Consequently, interpretation of JWST small exoplanet spectra follows a Bayesian approach, with less theoretically plausible interpretations facing a higher burden of proof. Here, we use photochemical modeling to evaluate the plausibility of warm exo-Titans, exoplanets with N$_2$-CH$_4$ atmospheres analogous to Titan but orbiting closer to their host stars. Consideration of warm exo-Titans is motivated by arguments from planet formation, as well as tentative evidence from observations. Using TRAPPIST-1e as a case study, we show that the higher instellation experienced by warm exo-Titans reduces their CH$_4$ lifetime $τ_{\text{CH}_{4}}$ relative to true Titan by orders of magnitude, reducing the probability of observing them. We constrain the $τ_{\text{CH}_{4}}$ on a warm exo-Titan to be $\leq0.1\times$ (and most likely $\leq0.02\times$) true Titan, implying the absolute probability of detecting a warm exo-Titan is $<0.1$ and likely $<0.01$. This finding is consistent with recent JWST nondetections of CH$_4$-dominated atmospheres on warm terrestrial exoplanets. The low prior probability means that the standard of proof required to claim a warm exo-Titan detection is high, and we offer specific suggestions towards such a standard of proof. Observation of oxidized carbon species would corroborate a putative warm exo-Titan detection. Confirmed detection of warm exo-Titans would signal the need to fundamentally rethink our understanding of the structure, dynamics, and photochemistry of Titan-like worlds.

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The Sonora Substellar Atmosphere Models. V: A Correction to the Disequilibrium Abundance of CO$_2$ for Sonora Elf Owl

To aid the interpretation of observations of substellar atmospheres, Mukherjee et al. (2024) created the Sonora Elf Owl grid of model atmospheres, simulations that accounted for disequilibrium quench chemistry. However, Sonora Elf Owl did not accurately estimate CO$_2$ quenching because the models quenched the gas with respect to the full atmosphere equilibrium, but CO$_2$ should have instead been quenched with respect to the disequilibrium (i.e., quenched) abundance of CO. As a result, Sonora Elf Owl under-predicted the CO$_2$ abundance by several order of magnitude in some instances, an amount that JWST is sensitive to. Here, we release version two of the Sonora Elf Owl grid which has corrected CO$_2$ concentrations. Additionally, in version two we remove PH$_3$ as a spectral contributor since our spectra consistently contained too much PH$_3$ absorption. The new spectra can be found as an update to the original Zenodo postings.

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Statistical geochemical constraints on present-day water outgassing as a source of secondary atmospheres on the TRAPPIST-1 exoplanets

The TRAPPIST-1 planetary system is observationally favorable for studying if planets orbiting M stars can retain atmospheres and host habitable conditions. Recent JWST secondary eclipse observations of TRAPPIST-1 c rule out a thick \ch{CO2} atmosphere but do not rule out atmospheric water vapor or its photochemical product, oxygen. Given the high expected escape rate, maintenance of atmospheric water vapor would require a present-day water source, such as volcanic outgassing. Here, we simulate water outgassing on the TRAPPIST-1 planets over a broad phase space based on solar system terrestrial bodies. We then apply two filters based on observation and geochemistry that narrow this phase space and constrain the plausible outgassing scenarios. For all seven TRAPPIST-1 planets, we find that the water outgassing rate is most likely $\sim$0.03x Earth's but has upper limits of $\sim$8x Earth's. The allowed range also implies low, Mars-like magma emplacement rates and relatively dry, Earth-like mantles, although mantle water mass fractions up to 1 wt\% are possible. We also present scenarios with magma emplacement rates similar to Mars, Earth, and Io, resulting in different preferred mantle water content and outgassing rates. We find that water outgassing rates are potentially high enough to balance water escape rates, providing a theoretical pathway for the TRAPPIST-1 planets to maintain surface water or water-vapor-containing atmospheres over long timescales. The bounds on outgassing rates and interior properties can be used in atmospheric chemistry and escape models to contextualize future observations of the TRAPPIST-1 planets, and may be applicable to other terrestrial exoplanets.

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