arXiv subjects

Nicholas F. Wogan

Publications and source records attributed to Nicholas F. Wogan.

30 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2025

Statistical geochemical constraints on present-day water outgassing as a source of secondary atmospheres on the TRAPPIST-1 exoplanets

The TRAPPIST-1 planetary system is observationally favorable for studying if planets orbiting M stars can retain atmospheres and host habitable conditions. Recent JWST secondary eclipse observations of TRAPPIST-1 c rule out a thick \ch{CO2} atmosphere but do not rule out atmospheric water vapor or its photochemical product, oxygen. Given the high expected escape rate, maintenance of atmospheric water vapor would require a present-day water source, such as volcanic outgassing. Here, we simulate water outgassing on the TRAPPIST-1 planets over a broad phase space based on solar system terrestrial bodies. We then apply two filters based on observation and geochemistry that narrow this phase space and constrain the plausible outgassing scenarios. For all seven TRAPPIST-1 planets, we find that the water outgassing rate is most likely $\sim$0.03x Earth's but has upper limits of $\sim$8x Earth's. The allowed range also implies low, Mars-like magma emplacement rates and relatively dry, Earth-like mantles, although mantle water mass fractions up to 1 wt\% are possible. We also present scenarios with magma emplacement rates similar to Mars, Earth, and Io, resulting in different preferred mantle water content and outgassing rates. We find that water outgassing rates are potentially high enough to balance water escape rates, providing a theoretical pathway for the TRAPPIST-1 planets to maintain surface water or water-vapor-containing atmospheres over long timescales. The bounds on outgassing rates and interior properties can be used in atmospheric chemistry and escape models to contextualize future observations of the TRAPPIST-1 planets, and may be applicable to other terrestrial exoplanets.

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arXiv2025

Polarized Signatures of the Earth Through Time: An Outlook for the Habitable Worlds Observatory

The search for life beyond the Solar System remains a primary goal of current and near-future missions, including NASA's upcoming Habitable Worlds Observatory (HWO). However, research into determining the habitability of terrestrial exoplanets has been primarily focused on comparisons to modern-day Earth. Additionally, current characterization strategies focus on the unpolarized flux from these worlds, taking into account only a fraction of the informational content of the reflected light. Better understanding the changes in the reflected light spectrum of the Earth throughout its evolution, as well as analyzing its polarization, will be crucial for mapping its habitability and providing comparison templates to potentially habitable exoplanets. Here we present spectropolarimetric models of the reflected light from the Earth at six epochs across all four geologic eons. We find that the changing surface albedos and atmospheric gas concentrations across the different epochs allow the habitable and non-habitable scenarios to be distinguished, and diagnostic features of clouds and hazes are more noticeable in the polarized signals. We also discuss how using Mie scattering for naturally non-spherical particles, which is a common simplification for exoplanet modeling, affects the resulting planetary signals. Finally, our results suggest that pushing the HWO planet-to-star flux contrast limit down to 1 $\times$ 10$^{-13}$ could allow for the characterization in both unpolarized and polarized light of an Earth-like planet at any stage in its history.

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arXiv2025

JWST COMPASS: NIRSpec/G395H Transmission Observations of TOI-776 c, a 2 Rearth M Dwarf Planet

The atmospheres of planets between the size of Earth and Neptune at short orbital periods have been under intense scrutiny. Of the ~dozen planets in this regime with atmospheres studied so far, a few appear to have prominent molecular features while others appear relatively void of detectable atmospheres. Further work is therefore needed to understand the atmospheres of these planets, starting with observing a larger sample. To this end, we present the 3-5 micron transmission spectrum of TOI-776 c, a warm (Teq ~420 K), ~2 Rearth, ~7 Mearth planet orbiting an M1V star, measured with JWST NIRSpec/G395H. By combining two visits, we measure a median transit precision of ~18 ppm and ~32 ppm in the NRS1 and NRS2 detectors, respectively. We compare the transmission spectrum to both non-physical and physical models, and find no strong evidence for molecular features. For cloud-top pressures larger than 10^-3 bar, we rule out atmospheric metallicities less than 180-240x solar (depending on the reduction and modeling technique), which corresponds to a mean molecular weight of ~6-8 g/mol. However, we find simple atmosphere mixture models (H2O+H2/He or CO2+H2/He) give more pessimistic constraints, and caution that mean molecular weight inferences are model dependent. We compare TOI-776 c to the similar planet TOI-270 d, and discuss possible options for further constraining TOI-776 c's atmospheric composition. Overall, we suggest these TOI-776 c observations may represent a combination of planetary and stellar parameters that fall just below the threshold of detectable features in small planet spectra; finding this boundary is one of the main goals of the COMPASS program.

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arXiv2025

JWST COMPASS: NIRSpec/G395H Transmission Observations of the Super-Earth TOI-776b

We present two transit observations of the $\sim$520K, 1.85R$_\oplus$, 4.0M$_\oplus$ super-Earth TOI-776b with JWST NIRSpec/G395H, resulting in a 2.8-5.2$μ$m transmission spectrum. Producing reductions using the ExoTiC-JEDI and Eureka! pipelines, we obtain a median transit depth precision of 34ppm for both visits and both reductions in spectroscopic channels 30 pixels wide ($\sim$0.02$μ$m). We find that our independent reductions produce consistent transmission spectra, however, each visit shows differing overall structure. For both reductions, a flat line is preferred for Visit 1 while a flat line with an offset between the NRS1 and NRS2 detectors is preferred for Visit 2; however, we are able to correct for this offset during our modeling analysis following methods outlined in previous literature. Using picaso forward models, we can rule out metallicities up to at least 100$\times$ solar with an opaque pressure of 10$^{-3}$ bar to $\geq$3$σ$ in all cases, however, the exact lower limit varies between the visits, with Visit 1 ruling out $\lesssim$100$\times$ solar while the lower limits for Visit 2 extend beyond $\sim$350$\times$ solar. Our results add to the growing list of super-Earth atmospheric constraints by JWST, which provide critical insight into the diversity and challenges of characterizing terrestrial planets.

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arXiv2024

JWST COMPASS: The first near- to mid-infrared transmission spectrum of the hot super-Earth L 168-9 b

We present the first broadband near- to mid-infrared (3-12 microns) transmission spectrum of the highly-irradiated (T_eq = 981 K) M dwarf rocky planet L 168-9 b (TOI-134 b) observed with the NIRSpec and MIRI instruments aboard JWST. We measure the near-infrared transit depths to a combined median precision of 20 ppm across the three visits in 54 spectroscopic channels with uniform widths of 60 pixels (~0.2 microns wide; R~100), and the mid-infrared transit depths to 61 ppm median precision in 48 wavelength bins (~0.15 microns wide; R~50). We compare the transmission spectrum of L 168-9 b to a grid of 1D thermochemical equilibrium forward models, and rule out atmospheric metallicities of less than 100x solar (mean molecular weights <4 g mol$^{-1}$) to 3-sigma confidence assuming high surface pressure (>1 bar), cloudless atmospheres. Based on photoevaporation models for L 168-9 b with initial atmospheric mass fractions ranging from 2-100%, we find that this planet could not have retained a primordial H/He atmosphere beyond the first 200 Myr of its lifetime. Follow-up MIRI eclipse observations at 15 microns could make it possible to confidently identify a CO2-dominated atmosphere on this planet if one exists.

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arXiv2024

Effects of Planetary Parameters on Disequilibrium Chemistry in Irradiated Planetary Atmospheres: From Gas Giants to Sub-Neptunes

A primary goal of characterizing exoplanet atmospheres is to constrain planetary bulk properties, such as their metallicity, C/O ratio, and intrinsic heat. However, there are significant uncertainties in many aspects of atmospheric physics, such as the strength of vertical mixing. Here we use PICASO and the photochem model to explore how atmospheric chemistry is influenced by planetary properties like metallicity, C/O ratio, $T_{\rm int}$, $T_{\rm eq}$, and $K_{\rm zz}$ in hydrogen-dominated atmospheres. We vary the $T_{\rm eq}$ of the planets between 400 K- 1600 K, across ``cold",``warm," and `hot" objects. We also explore an extensive range of $T_{\rm int}$ values between 30-500 K, representing sub-Neptunes to massive gas giants. We find that gases like CO and CO$_2$ show a drastically different dependence on $K_{\rm zz}$ and C/O for planets with cold interiors (e.g., sub-Neptunes) compared to planets with hotter interiors (e.g., Jupiter mass planets), for the same $T_{\rm eq}$. We also find that gases like CS and CS$_2$ can carry a significant portion of the S- inventory in the upper atmosphere near $T_{\rm eq}$ $\le$ 600 K, below which SO$_2$ ceases to be abundant. For solar C/O, we show that the CO/CH$_4$ ratio in the upper atmospheres of planets can become $\le$1 for planets with low $T_{\rm eq}$, but only if their interiors are cold ($T_{\rm int}$$\le$100 K). We find that photochemical haze precursor molecules in the upper atmosphere show very complex dependence on C/O, $K_{\rm zz}$, $T_{\rm eq}$, and $T_{\rm int}$ for planets with cold interiors (e.g., sub-Neptunes). We also briefly explore fully coupling PICASO and photochem to generate self-consistent radiative-convective-photochemical-equilibrium models.

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arXiv2024

JWST COMPASS: A NIRSpec/G395H Transmission Spectrum of the Sub-Neptune TOI-836c

Planets between the sizes of Earth and Neptune are the most common in the Galaxy, bridging the gap between the terrestrial and giant planets in our Solar System. Now that we are firmly in the era of JWST, we can begin to measure, in more detail, the atmospheres of these ubiquitous planets to better understand their evolutionary trajectories. The two planets in the TOI-836 system are ideal candidates for such a study, as they fall on either side of the radius valley, allowing for direct comparisons of the present-day atmospheres of planets that formed in the same environment but had different ultimate end states. We present results from the JWST NIRSpec G395H transit observation of the larger and outer of the planets in this system, TOI-836c (2.587 R$_{\oplus}$, 9.6 M$_{\oplus}$, T$_{\rm eq}$$\sim$665 K). While we measure average 30-pixel binned precisions of $\sim$24ppm for NRS1 and $\sim$43ppm for NRS2 per spectral bin, we do find residual correlated noise in the data, which we attempt to correct using the JWST Engineering Database. We find a featureless transmission spectrum for this sub-Neptune planet, and are able to rule out atmospheric metallicities $<$175$\times$ Solar in the absence of aerosols at $\lesssim$1 millibar. We leverage microphysical models to determine that aerosols at such low pressures are physically plausible. The results presented herein represent the first observation from the COMPASS (Compositions of Mini-Planet Atmospheres for Statistical Study) JWST program, which also includes TOI-836b and will ultimately compare the presence and compositions of atmospheres for 12 super-Earths/sub-Neptunes.

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arXiv2024

JWST COMPASS: NIRSpec/G395H Transmission Observations of the Super-Earth TOI-836b

We present two transit observations of the ~870K, 1.7R$_E$ super-Earth TOI-836b with JWST NIRSpec/G395H, resulting in a 2.8-5.2$μ$m transmission spectrum. Using two different reduction pipelines, we obtain a median transit depth precision of 34ppm for Visit 1 and 36ppm for Visit 2, leading to a combined precision of 25ppm in spectroscopic channels 30 pixels wide (~0.02$μ$m). We find that the transmission spectrum from both visits is well fit by a zero-sloped line by fitting zero-sloped and sloped lines, as well as step functions to our data. Combining both visits, we are able to rule out atmospheres with metallicities <250xSolar for an opaque pressure level of 0.1 bar, corresponding to mean molecular weights to <6gmol$^{-1}$. We therefore conclude that TOI-836b does not have an H$_2$-dominated atmosphere, in possible contrast with its larger, exterior sibling planet, TOI-836c. We recommend that future proposals to observe small planets exercise caution when requiring specific numbers of transits to rule out physical scenarios, particularly for high metallicities and planets around bright host stars, as PandExo predictions appear to be more optimistic than that suggested by the gains from additional transits implied by our data.

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arXiv2024

Biogenic sulfur gases as biosignatures on temperate sub-Neptune waterworlds

Theoretical predictions and observational data indicate a class of sub-Neptune exoplanets may have water-rich interiors covered by hydrogen-dominated atmospheres. Provided suitable climate conditions, such planets could host surface liquid oceans. Motivated by recent JWST observations of K2-18 b, we self-consistently model the photochemistry and potential detectability of biogenic sulfur gases in the atmospheres of temperate sub-Neptune waterworlds for the first time. On Earth today, organic sulfur compounds produced by marine biota are rapidly destroyed by photochemical processes before they can accumulate to significant levels. Domagal-Goldman et al. (2011) suggest that detectable biogenic sulfur signatures could emerge in Archean-like atmospheres with higher biological production or low UV flux. In this study, we explore biogenic sulfur across a wide range of biological fluxes and stellar UV environments. Critically, the main photochemical sinks are absent on the nightside of tidally locked planets. To address this, we further perform experiments with a 3D GCM and a 2D photochemical model (VULCAN 2D (Tsai et al. 2024)) to simulate the global distribution of biogenic gases to investigate their terminator concentrations as seen via transmission spectroscopy. Our models indicate that biogenic sulfur gases can rise to potentially detectable levels on hydrogen-rich waterworlds, but only for enhanced global biosulfur flux ($\gtrsim$20 times modern Earth's flux). We find that it is challenging to identify DMS at 3.4 $μm$ where it strongly overlaps with CH$_4$, whereas it is more plausible to detect DMS and companion byproducts, ethylene (C$_2$H$_4$) and ethane (C$_2$H$_6$), in the mid-infrared between 9 and 13 $μm$.

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arXiv2024

JWST observations of K2-18b can be explained by a gas-rich mini-Neptune with no habitable surface

JWST recently measured the transmission spectrum of K2-18b, a habitable-zone sub-Neptune exoplanet, detecting CH$_4$ and CO$_2$ in its atmosphere. The discovery paper argued the data are best explained by a habitable "Hycean" world, consisting of a relatively thin H$_2$-dominated atmosphere overlying a liquid water ocean. Here, we use photochemical and climate models to simulate K2-18b as both a Hycean planet and a gas-rich mini-Neptune with no defined surface. We find that a lifeless Hycean world is hard to reconcile with the JWST observations because photochemistry only supports $< 1$ part-per-million CH$_4$ in such an atmosphere while the data suggest about $\sim 1\%$ of the gas is present. Sustaining %-level CH$_4$ on a Hycean K2-18b may require the presence of a methane-producing biosphere, similar to microbial life on Earth $\sim 3$ billion years ago. On the other hand, we predict that a gas-rich mini-Neptune with $100 \times$ solar metallicity should have 4% CH$_4$ and nearly 0.1% CO$_2$, which are compatible with the JWST data. The CH$_4$ and CO$_2$ are produced thermochemically in the deep atmosphere and mixed upward to the low pressures sensitive to transmission spectroscopy. The model predicts H$_2$O, NH$_3$ and CO abundances broadly consistent with the non-detections. Given the additional obstacles to maintaining a stable temperate climate on Hycean worlds due to H$_2$ escape and potential supercriticality at depth, we favor the mini-Neptune interpretation because of its relative simplicity and because it does not need a biosphere or other unknown source of methane to explain the data.

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arXiv2023

Inferring Chemical Disequilibrium Biosignatures for Proterozoic Earth-Like Exoplanets

Chemical disequilibrium quantified via available free energy has previously been proposed as a potential biosignature. However, exoplanet biosignature remote sensing work has not yet investigated how observational uncertainties impact the ability to infer a life-generated available free energy. We pair an atmospheric retrieval tool to a thermodynamics model to assess the detectability of chemical disequilibrium signatures of Earth-like exoplanets, emphasizing the Proterozoic Eon where atmospheric abundances of oxygen-methane disequilibrium pairs may have been relatively high. Retrieval model studies applied across a range of gas abundances revealed that order-of-magnitude constraints on disequilibrium energy are achieved with simulated reflected-light observations at the high abundance scenario and signal-to-noise ratios (50) while weak constraints are found at moderate SNRs (20\,--\,30) for med\,--\,low abundance cases. Furthermore, the disequilibrium energy constraints are improved by modest thermal information encoded in water vapor opacities at optical and near-infrared wavelengths. These results highlight how remotely detecting chemical disequilibrium biosignatures can be a useful and metabolism-agnostic approach to biosignature detection.

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arXiv2023

Origin of Life Molecules in the Atmosphere After Big Impacts on the Early Earth

The origin of life on Earth would benefit from a prebiotic atmosphere that produced nitriles, like HCN, which enable ribonucleotide synthesis. However, geochemical evidence suggests that Hadean air was relatively oxidizing with negligible photochemical production of prebiotic molecules. These paradoxes are resolved by iron-rich asteroid impacts that transiently reduced the entire atmosphere, allowing nitriles to form in subsequent photochemistry. Here, we investigate impact-generated reducing atmospheres using new time-dependent, coupled atmospheric chemistry and climate models, which account for gas-phase reactions and surface-catalysis. The resulting H$_2$-, CH$_4$- and NH$_3$-rich atmospheres persist for millions of years, until hydrogen escapes to space. HCN and HCCCN production and rainout to the surface can reach $10^9$ molecules cm$^{-2}$ s$^{-1}$ in hazy atmospheres with a mole ratio of $\mathrm{CH_4} / \mathrm{CO_2} > 0.1$. Smaller $\mathrm{CH_4} / \mathrm{CO_2}$ ratios produce HCN rainout rates $< 10^5$ molecules cm$^{-2}$ s$^{-1}$, and negligible HCCCN. The minimum impactor mass that creates atmospheric $\mathrm{CH_4} / \mathrm{CO_2} > 0.1$ is $4 \times 10^{20}$ to $5 \times 10^{21}$ kg (570 to 1330 km diameter), depending on how efficiently iron reacts with a steam atmosphere, the extent of atmospheric equilibration with an impact-induced melt pond, and the surface area of nickel that catalyzes CH$_4$ production. Alternatively, if steam permeates and deeply oxidizes crust, impactors $\sim 10^{20}$ kg could be effective. Atmospheres with copious nitriles have $> 360$ K surface temperatures, perhaps posing a challenge for RNA longevity, although cloud albedo can produce cooler climates. Regardless, post-impact cyanide can be stockpiled and used in prebiotic schemes after hydrogen has escaped to space.

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