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Nick Haber

Publications and source records attributed to Nick Haber.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
arXiv2026

A Dataset for Modeling Iterative Problem-Solving

Solving problems through repeated attempts is a sequential modeling task: at each step, the solver receives feedback and decides how to revise their solutions. Predicting whether performance improves, plateaus, or regresses across attempts is central to understanding any iterative problem-solving process in both human learners and autonomous agents. Beyond outcomes, modeling what errors persist and how strategies shift across attempts provides deeper insight into the mechanics of sequential learning. Studying these dynamics requires observing many solvers as they attempt, receive feedback, and revise. Programming courses with automated grading provide this setting, as students iteratively submit code to test suites and receive feedback on every attempt. We therefore curate CodeInsight, a large-scale dataset of over 3 million submissions from 3,286 undergraduates across 2 introductory C++ courses in 2 academic years, with test-case-level outcomes, timestamps, and source code. On this dataset, we build a benchmark that evaluates models spanning parametric, sequential, and generative traditions under a shared calibration-and-scoring protocol, including a Recurrent State Space Model (RSSM) adapted to track solver characteristics through discrete latent variables and an LLM-based predictor that generates explicit solutions. The adapted RSSM achieves the strongest predictive accuracy on three of the four courses. The LLM predictor is less accurate but produces full submissions at each attempt, enabling direct analysis of failure modes. We find that the model's coding proficiency is inversely related to predictive performance in this setting, with the LLM better understood as a generative solver conditioned on context rather than a faithful predictor of solver behavior. We publicly release our code and the dataset on request to facilitate future research.

cs.CL↗
arXiv2026

DelusionEval: Measuring Delusion-Linked Behaviors in AI Chatbots

Mental health professionals have raised concerns about risks of psychological harm from interaction with large language models (LLMs), including "delusional spirals" in which concerning human and LLM behaviors reinforce each other over time. With growing public use of LLM-powered chatbots, there is an urgent need to build evaluations grounded in real-world episodes of psychological harm experienced by users. We developed DelusionEval, an evaluation protocol that tests a model's tendencies to exhibit behaviors linked to promoting user delusions. We prompt each model with 589 unique conversation histories from 18 participants, comprising 12,591 messages from users who experienced delusions and psychological harm. We find that the tendency of an evaluated LLM to exhibit delusion-linked behavior does not reliably correlate with model size, release date, or the presence of test-time reasoning. However, extending the context of prior messages substantially increases rates of delusion-linked behaviors, providing evidence for the importance of context in LLM safety evaluation. For example, the rate of failing to discourage self-harm when the user expresses suicidal ideation increases from 30.0% to 41.1% when an additional 350 messages are prepended to the conversation history. All model families (e.g., GPT, Claude) exhibit substantial rates of delusion-linked behaviors. Within families, later, larger, or higher-reasoning models are not uniformly better across all behavior categories. Our results raise concerns regarding the potential psychological impact of LLMs and the need for more rigorous studies of real-world human-AI interaction.

cs.CL↗
arXiv2026

APIVOT: Adaptive Planning with Interleaved Vision-Language Thoughts

Long-horizon robot planning requires jointly reasoning over semantic task structure and geometric feasibility. To successfully execute a task, a robot must decompose goals, select task-relevant objects, and sequence actions, while ensuring that plans satisfy spatial constraints such as limited free space and object collisions. In this work, we propose APIVOT, a VLM-based planner that adaptively interleaves language and visual thoughts for long-horizon planning. APIVOT learns to leverage language for semantic reasoning, while using visual thoughts as imagined future states for internal verification of geometric feasibility. On long-horizon kitchen tasks, APIVOT outperforms general-purpose VLMs and prior planning frameworks, achieving the largest gains in spatially constrained settings. We find that APIVOT learns meaningful modality selection behavior, demonstrating that adaptive interleaving of vision-language thoughts improves both planning success and reasoning efficiency.

cs.CV↗
arXiv2026

ExpRL: Exploratory RL for LLM Mid-Training

Sparse reward reinforcement learning (RL) has become a standard tool for improving LLM reasoning, but its success depends critically on the coverage present in the base model. In practice, models are often primed for RL through \emph{mid-training} on curated reasoning traces that teach useful primitive skills such as decomposition, verification, or self-correction. Although effective, this strategy requires manually specifying what the model should learn, and it remains unclear whether such primitive coverage is enough for much harder problems, which require combining these skills into broader solution strategies. We study a more automated approach: \emph{RL-based mid-training} using large corpora of human-written question-answer data. Rather than treating reference solutions as targets to imitate, our method, ExpRL, uses them as \emph{reward scaffolds}: references are hidden from the policy and used only to construct problem-specific grading rubrics for judging on-policy reasoning traces. The policy samples from the original problem prompt, while an LLM judge compares the sampled reasoning trace against the reference solution and assigns outcome-level or process-level dense rewards. This lets ExpRL reinforce partial progress, useful intermediate reductions, and productive reasoning behaviors that sparse final-answer rewards often fail to upweight. On challenging math reasoning tasks, ExpRL yields stronger RL priming than SFT, sparse-reward GRPO, and self-distillation, and provides a better initialization for subsequent sparse-reward RL. Additional mixed-domain experiments further suggest that ExpRL can extend beyond the original math-only setting.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

A Model of Multi-turn Human Persuadability Using Probabilistic Belief Tracing

Large language models can shift human beliefs across high-stakes domains, but most persuasion studies rely on pre/post belief change. These endpoint measures identify whether persuasion occurred, yet miss where and how beliefs moved within a dialogue. We present PERSUASIONTRACE, a framework for studying persuasion in human-LLM interaction. Built on a web-based experimental platform, PERSUASIONTRACE contributes a tool for multi-turn persuasion studies and a process-level evaluation protocol: it records multi-turn belief reports from human or simulated targets of persuasion, annotates persuader turns with rhetorical dimensions (logos/pathos/ethos), and evaluates simulators by fidelity to real human belief dynamics. Using this framework, we find that human targets group into two clusters of multi-turn belief updates and exhibit susceptibility to rhetorical strategies, and that LLMs are persuasive across generic and personalized topics, text and audio modalities, and multi-turn interactions. Prior work has chiefly used vanilla-prompted LLMs to simulate human targets, but we show that these simulators fail to replicate human belief dynamics. We introduce a Bayesian-network simulated target that maintains an explicit latent belief state over time so each persuader message yields cognitively realistic belief updates. In human-likeness evaluation, our Bayesian target scores near a human reference (81 vs 80), while baseline LLM targets score substantially lower (64). PERSUASIONTRACE reframes persuasion evaluation from endpoint movement alone to process fidelity, providing a stronger basis for scientific analysis and safer optimization of persuasive systems.

cs.CL↗
arXiv2026

The Dynamics of Delusion: Modeling Bidirectional False Belief Amplification in Human-Chatbot Dialogue

There is growing concern that AI chatbots might fuel delusional beliefs in users. Some have suggested that humans and chatbots mutually reinforce false beliefs over time, but quantitative evidence is lacking. Using a unique dataset of chat logs from individuals who exhibited delusional thinking, we developed a latent state model that captures accumulating and decaying influences between humans and chatbots. We find that a bidirectional influence model substantially outperforms a unidirectional alternative where humans are the primary driver of delusion. We find that humans exert strong but short-lived influence on chatbots, whereas chatbots exert longer-lasting influence on humans. Moreover, chatbots exert strong, stable self-influence over their own future outputs that tends to perpetuate delusions over long stretches of conversation. In fact, this chatbot self-influence constituted the dominant pathway when considering accumulated influence over time. Overall, these results indicate that humans tend to drive sharp, immediate increases in delusion, whereas chatbots sustain and propagate these effects over longer timescales. Together, these findings provide the first quantitative evidence that human-chatbot interactions can form feedback loops of delusion, decomposable into distinct pathways with dissociable temporal dynamics. By doing so, they can inform the development of safer AI systems.

cs.CL↗
arXiv2026

Within-person prediction of depressive symptom change using year-long Screenome data and CES-D assessments

Predicting whether an individual's depressive symptoms will worsen, remain stable, or improve over the coming weeks can enable earlier and more targeted care, yet prospective within-person trajectory prediction remains largely unaddressed in digital phenotyping. We combine fortnightly CES-D assessments with over 100 million screenshots captured every five seconds via the Stanford Screenomics platform from 96 adults followed for approximately one year (M = 20.9, SD = 3.9 assessments per participant, 2,002 total observations). We frame prediction as a within-person classification task: whether symptoms will worsen, remain stable, or improve over the subsequent fortnight, operationalized in three ways to capture clinically meaningful change. Under temporal holdout, XGBoost achieves an AUC of 0.906 for crossings of established CES-D severity bands and 0.755 for change relative to each participant's own within-person variability, generalizing to unseen individuals (AUC = 0.821). Each person's typical symptom level was the only statistically significant predictor above the most recent CES-D score; without it, the most consequential worsening transitions go undetected. Screenome-derived behavioral features revealed prodromal patterns of worsening, including escalating social media use, fragmented device engagement, and changes in overnight activity, with substantial individual heterogeneity. These findings establish a proof-of-concept foundation for monitoring systems that could identify individuals approaching clinical deterioration before symptoms reach a crisis point.

cs.HC↗
arXiv2026

Data-efficient pre-training by scaling synthetic megadocs

Synthetic data augmentation has emerged as a promising solution when pre-training is constrained by data rather than compute. We study how to design synthetic data algorithms that achieve better loss scaling: not only lowering loss at finite compute but especially as compute approaches infinity. We first show that pre-training on web data mixed with synthetically generated rephrases improves i.i.d. validation loss on the web data, despite the synthetic data coming from an entirely different distribution. With optimal mixing and epoching, loss and benchmark accuracy improve without overfitting as the number of synthetic generations grows, plateauing near $1.48\times$ data efficiency at 32 rephrases per document. We find even better loss scaling under a new perspective: synthetic generations from the same document can form a single substantially longer megadocument instead of many short documents. We show two ways to construct megadocs: stitching synthetic rephrases from the same web document or stretching a document by inserting rationales. Both methods improve i.i.d. loss, downstream benchmarks, and especially long-context loss relative to simple rephrasing, increasing data efficiency from $1.48\times$ to $1.80\times$ at $32$ generations per document. Importantly, the improvement of megadocs over simple rephrasing widens as more synthetic data is generated. Our results show how to design synthetic data algorithms that benefit more from increasing compute when data-constrained.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

Characterizing Delusional Spirals through Human-LLM Chat Logs

As large language models (LLMs) have proliferated, disturbing anecdotal reports of negative psychological effects, such as delusions, self-harm, and ``AI psychosis,'' have emerged in global media and legal discourse. However, it remains unclear how users and chatbots interact over the course of lengthy delusional ``spirals,'' limiting our ability to understand and mitigate the harm. In our work, we analyze logs of conversations with LLM chatbots from 19 users who report having experienced psychological harms from chatbot use. Many of our participants come from a support group for such chatbot users. We also include chat logs from participants covered by media outlets in widely-distributed stories about chatbot-reinforced delusions. In contrast to prior work that speculates on potential AI harms to mental health, to our knowledge we present the first in-depth study of such high-profile and veridically harmful cases. We develop an inventory of 28 codes and apply it to the $391,562$ messages in the logs. Codes include whether a user demonstrates delusional thinking (15.5% of user messages), a user expresses suicidal thoughts (69 validated user messages), or a chatbot misrepresents itself as sentient (21.2% of chatbot messages). We analyze the co-occurrence of message codes. We find, for example, that messages that declare romantic interest and messages where the chatbot describes itself as sentient occur much more often in longer conversations, suggesting that these topics could promote or result from user over-engagement and that safeguards in these areas may degrade in multi-turn settings. We conclude with concrete recommendations for how policymakers, LLM chatbot developers, and users can use our inventory and conversation analysis tool to understand and mitigate harm from LLM chatbots. Warning: This paper discusses self-harm, trauma, and violence.

cs.CL↗
arXiv2026

Learning Next Action Predictors from Human-Computer Interaction

Truly proactive AI systems must anticipate what we will do next. This foresight demands far richer information than the sparse signals we type into our prompts -- it demands reasoning over the entire context of what we see and do. We formalize this as next action prediction (NAP): given a sequence of a user's multimodal interactions with a computer (screenshots, clicks, sensor data), predict that user's next action. Progress on this task requires both new data and modeling approaches. To scale data, we annotate longitudinal, naturalistic computer use with vision-language models. We release an open-source pipeline for performing this labeling on private infrastructure, and label over 360K actions across one month of continuous phone usage from 20 users, amounting to 1,800 hours of screen time. We then introduce LongNAP, a user model that combines parametric and in-context learning to reason over long interaction histories. LongNAP is trained via policy gradient methods to generate user-specific reasoning traces given some context; retrieve relevant traces from a library of past traces; and then apply retrieved traces in-context to predict future actions. Using an LLM-as-judge evaluation metric (0-1 similarity to ground truth), LongNAP significantly outperforms supervised finetuning and prompted baselines on held-out data (by 79% and 39% respectively). Additionally, LongNAP generalizes to held out users when trained across individuals. The space of next actions a user might take at any moment is unbounded, spanning thousands of possible outcomes. Despite this, 17.1% of LongNAP's predicted trajectories are well-aligned with what a user does next (LLM-judge score $\geq$ 0.5). This rises to 26% when we filter to highly confident predictions. In sum, we argue that learning from the full context of user behavior to anticipate user needs is now a viable task with substantial opportunity.

cs.CL↗
arXiv2026

Large Language Models Persuade Without Planning Theory of Mind

A growing body of work attempts to evaluate the theory of mind (ToM) abilities of humans and large language models (LLMs) using static, non-interactive question-and-answer benchmarks. However, theoretical work in the field suggests that first-personal interaction is a crucial part of ToM and that such predictive, spectatorial tasks may fail to evaluate it. We address this gap with a novel ToM task that requires an agent to persuade a target to choose one of three policy proposals by strategically revealing information. Success depends on a persuader's sensitivity to a given target's knowledge states (what the target knows about the policies) and motivational states (how much the target values different outcomes). We varied whether these states were Revealed to persuaders or Hidden, in which case persuaders had to inquire about or infer them. In Experiment 1, participants persuaded a bot programmed to make only rational inferences. LLMs excelled in the Revealed condition but performed below chance in the Hidden condition, suggesting difficulty with the multi-step planning required to elicit and use mental state information. Humans performed moderately well in both conditions, indicating an ability to engage such planning. In Experiment 2, where a human target role-played the bot, and in Experiment 3, where we measured whether human targets' real beliefs changed, LLMs outperformed human persuaders across all conditions. These results suggest that effective persuasion can occur without explicit ToM reasoning (e.g., through rhetorical strategies) and that LLMs excel at this form of persuasion. Overall, our results caution against attributing human-like ToM to LLMs while highlighting LLMs' potential to influence people's beliefs and behavior.

cs.CL↗
arXiv2026

One Bias After Another: Mechanistic Reward Shaping and Persistent Biases in Language Reward Models

Reward Models (RMs) are crucial for online alignment of language models (LMs) with human preferences. However, RM-based preference-tuning is vulnerable to reward hacking, whereby LM policies learn undesirable behaviors from flawed RMs. By systematically measuring biases in five high-quality RMs, including the state-of-the-art, we find that issues persist despite prior work with respect to length, sycophancy, and overconfidence. We also discover new issues related to bias toward model-specific ``styles'' and answer-order. We categorize RM failures as tractable or resistant to linear intervention and propose a simple post-hoc intervention to mitigate low-complexity biases that arise from spurious correlations. Our proposed mechanistic reward shaping reduces targeted biases without degrading reward quality and while using minimal labeled data. The method is extensible to new biases, model-internal, and generalizes out-of-distribution.

cs.CL↗
arXiv2026

Neural Nonmyopic Bayesian Optimization in Dynamic Cost Settings

Bayesian optimization (BO) is a common framework for optimizing black-box functions, yet most existing methods assume static query costs and rely on myopic acquisition strategies. We introduce LookaHES, a nonmyopic BO framework designed for dynamic, history-dependent cost environments, where evaluation costs vary with prior actions, such as travel distance in spatial tasks or edit distance in sequence design. LookaHES combines a multi-step variant of $H$-Entropy Search with pathwise sampling and neural policy optimization, enabling long-horizon planning beyond twenty steps without the exponential complexity of existing nonmyopic methods. The key innovation is the integration of neural policies, including large language models, to effectively navigate structured, combinatorial action spaces such as protein sequences. These policies amortize lookahead planning and can be integrated with domain-specific constraints during rollout. Empirically, LookaHES outperforms strong myopic and nonmyopic baselines across nine synthetic benchmarks from two to eight dimensions and two real-world tasks: geospatial optimization using NASA night-light imagery and protein sequence design with constrained token-level edits. In short, LookaHES provides a general, scalable, and cost-aware solution for robust long-horizon optimization in complex decision spaces, which makes it a useful tool for researchers in machine learning, statistics, and applied domains. Our implementation is available at https://github.com/sangttruong/nonmyopia.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2025

Fantastic Bugs and Where to Find Them in AI Benchmarks

Benchmarks are pivotal in driving AI progress, and invalid benchmark questions frequently undermine their reliability. Manually identifying and correcting errors among thousands of benchmark questions is not only infeasible but also a critical bottleneck for reliable evaluation. In this work, we introduce a framework for systematic benchmark revision that leverages statistical analysis of response patterns to flag potentially invalid questions for further expert review. Our approach builds on a core assumption commonly used in AI evaluations that the mean score sufficiently summarizes model performance. This implies a unidimensional latent construct underlying the measurement experiment, yielding expected ranges for various statistics for each item. When empirically estimated values for these statistics fall outside the expected range for an item, the item is more likely to be problematic. Across nine widely used benchmarks, our method guides expert review to identify problematic questions with up to 84\% precision. In addition, we introduce an LLM-judge first pass to review questions, further reducing human effort. Together, these components provide an efficient and scalable framework for systematic benchmark revision.

cs.AI↗
arXiv2025

The Sound of Syntax: Finetuning and Comprehensive Evaluation of Language Models for Speech Pathology

According to the U.S. National Institutes of Health, more than 3.4 million children experience speech disorders that require clinical intervention. The number of speech-language pathologists (SLPs) is roughly 20 times fewer than the number of affected children, highlighting a significant gap in children's care and a pressing need for technological support that improves the productivity of SLPs. State-of-the-art multimodal language models (MLMs) show promise for supporting SLPs, but their use remains underexplored largely due to a limited understanding of their performance in high-stakes clinical settings. To address this gap, we collaborate with domain experts to develop a taxonomy of real-world use cases of MLMs in speech-language pathologies. Building on this taxonomy, we introduce the first comprehensive benchmark for evaluating MLM across five core use cases, each containing 1,000 manually annotated data points. This benchmark includes robustness and sensitivity tests under various settings, including background noise, speaker gender, and accent. Our evaluation of 15 state-of-the-art MLMs reveals that no single model consistently outperforms others across all tasks. Notably, we find systematic disparities, with models performing better on male speakers, and observe that chain-of-thought prompting can degrade performance on classification tasks with large label spaces and narrow decision boundaries. Furthermore, we study fine-tuning MLMs on domain-specific data, achieving improvements of over 10\% compared to base models. These findings highlight both the potential and limitations of current MLMs for speech-language pathology applications, underscoring the need for further research and targeted development.

cs.CL↗
arXiv2025

Validating Generative Agent-Based Models of Social Norm Enforcement: From Replication to Novel Predictions

As large language models (LLMs) advance, there is growing interest in using them to simulate human social behavior through generative agent-based modeling (GABM). However, validating these models remains a key challenge. We present a systematic two-stage validation approach using social dilemma paradigms from psychological literature, first identifying the cognitive components necessary for LLM agents to reproduce known human behaviors in mixed-motive settings from two landmark papers, then using the validated architecture to simulate novel conditions. Our model comparison of different cognitive architectures shows that both persona-based individual differences and theory of mind capabilities are essential for replicating third-party punishment (TPP) as a costly signal of trustworthiness. For the second study on public goods games, this architecture is able to replicate an increase in cooperation from the spread of reputational information through gossip. However, an additional strategic component is necessary to replicate the additional boost in cooperation rates in the condition that allows both ostracism and gossip. We then test novel predictions for each paper with our validated generative agents. We find that TPP rates significantly drop in settings where punishment is anonymous, yet a substantial amount of TPP persists, suggesting that both reputational and intrinsic moral motivations play a role in this behavior. For the second paper, we introduce a novel intervention and see that open discussion periods before rounds of the public goods game further increase contributions, allowing groups to develop social norms for cooperation. This work provides a framework for validating generative agent models while demonstrating their potential to generate novel and testable insights into human social behavior.

cs.MA↗
arXiv2025

Understanding Human Limits in Pattern Recognition: A Computational Model of Sequential Reasoning in Rock, Paper, Scissors

How do we predict others from patterns in their behavior and what are the computational constraints that limit this ability? We investigate these questions by modeling human behavior over repeated games of rock, paper, scissors from Brockbank & Vul (2024). Against algorithmic opponents that varied in strategic sophistication, people readily exploit simple transition patterns (e.g., consistently playing rock after paper) but struggle to detect more complex sequential dependencies. To understand the cognitive mechanisms underlying these abilities and their limitations, we deploy Hypothetical Minds (HM), a large language model-based agent that generates and tests hypotheses about opponent strategies, as a cognitive model of this behavior (Cross et al., 2024). We show that when applied to the same experimental conditions, HM closely mirrors human performance patterns, succeeding and failing in similar ways. To better understand the source of HM's failures and whether people might face similar cognitive bottlenecks in this context, we performed a series of ablations and augmentations targeting different components of the system. When provided with natural language descriptions of the opponents' strategies, HM successfully exploited 6/7 bot opponents with win rates >80% suggesting that accurate hypothesis generation is the primary cognitive bottleneck in this task. Further, by systematically manipulating the model's hypotheses through pedagogically-inspired interventions, we find that the model substantially updates its causal understanding of opponent behavior, revealing how model-based analyses can produce testable hypotheses about human cognition.

q-bio.NC↗
arXiv2025

Do Large Language Models Have a Planning Theory of Mind? Evidence from MindGames: a Multi-Step Persuasion Task

Recent evidence suggests Large Language Models (LLMs) display Theory of Mind (ToM) abilities. Most ToM experiments place participants in a spectatorial role, wherein they predict and interpret other agents' behavior. However, human ToM also contributes to dynamically planning action and strategically intervening on others' mental states. We present MindGames: a novel `planning theory of mind' (PToM) task which requires agents to infer an interlocutor's beliefs and desires to persuade them to alter their behavior. Unlike previous evaluations, we explicitly evaluate use cases of ToM. We find that humans significantly outperform o1-preview (an LLM) at our PToM task (11% higher; $p=0.006$). We hypothesize this is because humans have an implicit causal model of other agents (e.g., they know, as our task requires, to ask about people's preferences). In contrast, o1-preview outperforms humans in a baseline condition which requires a similar amount of planning but minimal mental state inferences (e.g., o1-preview is better than humans at planning when already given someone's preferences). These results suggest a significant gap between human-like social reasoning and LLM abilities.

cs.CL↗