arXiv subjects

Nicole M. Ford

Publications and source records attributed to Nicole M. Ford.

11 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Infrared Line Diagnostics Fail to Constrain Sgr A*'s UV Output

Sgr A*, the 4 x $10^6 M_{sun}$ supermassive black hole at the Galactic Center, exhibits frequent flaring with X-ray luminosities of $L_X \sim 10^{35}-10^{36}$ erg s$^{-1}$, while its ultraviolet (UV) emission remains unconstrained due to extreme extinction ($A_V \sim 30$ mag). We use JWST/MIRI time-resolved spectroscopy of the central 0.3" region to search for mid-infrared emission line variability driven by Sgr A* flares, comparing the results to CLOUDY photoionization models spanning flare luminosities of $L_{UV} = 10^{32}$-$10^{39}$ erg s$^{-1}$. We detect no continuum-correlated variability in any mid-infrared line, including [Fe II] (5.34 $μ$m), [Ne II] (12.813 $μ$m), [Fe II] (17.936 $μ$m), and [S III] (18.713 $μ$m) over lags of $\sim1$-8~hr. Despite expectations of a flare-driven response, we show that the lack of variability is consistent with the physical conditions in the spatially extended line-emitting gas, where light-crossing timescales of $\sim0.1$-$10$ days and recombination and cooling timescales much longer than the variability timescales suppress any observable response to individual flares. We further find that the modeled infrared spectra are dominated by continuum emission rather than isolated line emission. The brightest predicted lines are intrinsically weak (lower than 10$^{-5}$ mJy), and their detectability is further reduced by the large kinematic broadening expected at the CLOUDY-predicted emitting radii, reducing their contrast against the continuum. Extending the analysis to higher-ionization mid-infrared and near-infrared lines does not improve sensitivity. These results demonstrate that infrared emission lines trace a steady-state radiation field rather than individual flaring events, and therefore infrared line diagnostics cannot be used to constrain the instantaneous UV flux of Sgr A*.

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arXiv2026

The Demographics of Sagittarius A* X-ray Flares over 25 Years with Chandra

We present the Chandra 25-year Sagittarius A* (Sgr A*) X-ray flare catalog: a systematic analysis of 6.8 Ms of Sgr A* monitoring spanning the Chandra X-ray Observatory's mission lifetime. This is the most complete Chandra Sgr A* X-ray flare catalog to date, consisting of 100 flares with 2$-$10 keV unabsorbed luminosities ranging from $\sim$ 4$-$575 $\times 10^{33}$ erg s$^{-1}$. 18 flares are reported for the first time, including the second brightest Sgr A* flare observed by Chandra. The expanded dataset supports previous indications of a correlation between X-ray flare hardness and luminosity. Spectral modeling corroborates this finding, showing a change in the X-ray spectral index, from $Γ\sim 3$ to 2 with increasing flare brightness. Previously-established correlations between flare duration, fluence, and maximum count rate are strengthened via the greater sample size. These results likely reflect variations in the underlying particle distribution that produce weak and strong flares, and the new catalog serves as a rich archive for ongoing observational and numerical investigations into the physical mechanisms responsible for producing Sgr A*'s X-ray flares.

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arXiv2026

Detection and Evolution of Linear Polarization of the Galactic Center Transient MAXI J1744-294

MAXI J1744$-$294, likely a low-mass X-ray binary system, is a Galactic-center transient source, detected at radio and X-ray wavelengths, located approximately $19''$ southeast of Sgr A*. We report the first detection of its variable linear polarization in four epochs spanning 2025 Apr 04--09. The normalized 33 and 43 GHz Stokes parameters $q$ and $u$ over the four epochs imply a common Faraday rotation screen with a rotation measure RM $=-63\,606^{+844}_{-861}$ radians m$^{-2}$, the third largest RM detected within the Galaxy. The RM is consistent with that of the Galactic center magnetar PSR J1745$-$2900, giving the first direct evidence that MAXI J1744 lies within the Galactic center region, is bound to Sgr A*, and therefore, is part of the nuclear star cluster. The uniformity in the Galactic center Faraday screen suggests that Sgr A*'s $\approx-10^5$ rad m$^{-2}$ RM is intrinsic rather than originating from an unrelated line-of-sight source. On 2025 Apr 06, we detected a secondary polarized component with an additional RM $\approx-6000$ rad m$^{-2}$, which was not seen at any other epoch. Assuming this secondary component primarily cools by synchrotron radiation, the implied local magnetic field strength is $\sim$15--30 gauss. In the context of a jetted X-ray binary progenitor, the additional RM screen and magnetic field strength are explainable with a short-lived knot in a putative jet.

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arXiv2025

First Mid-infrared Detection and Modeling of a Flare from Sgr A*. II. Mid-IR Spectral Energy Distribution and Millimeter Polarimetry

S. D. von Fellenberg et al. (2025a, Paper I) reported the first mid-infrared detection of a flare from Sgr A*. The JWST/MIRI/MRS observations were consistent with an orbiting hotspot undergoing electron injection with a spectrum that subsequently breaks from synchrotron cooling. However, mid-infrared extinction measurements appropriate for these data were not yet determined, and therefore the temporal evolution of the absolute spectral index remained unknown. This work applies new Galactic Center extinction measurements to the flare observations. The evolution of the spectral index after the peak is fully consistent with that reported in Paper I with a maximum absolute mid-infrared spectral index $α_{\rm{MIR}}=0.45\pm0.01_{\rm{stat}}\pm0.08_{\rm{sys}}$ during the second mid-infrared flare peak, matching the known near-infrared spectral index during bright states ($α_{\rm{NIR}}\approx0.5$). There was a near-instantaneous change in the mid-infrared spectral index of $Δα_{\rm{MIR}}=0.33\pm0.06_{\rm{stat}}\pm0.11_{\rm{sys}}$ at the flare onset. We propose this as a quantitative definition for this infrared flare's beginning, physically interpreted as the underlying electron distribution's transition into a hard power-law distribution. This paper also reports the SMA millimeter polarization during the flare, which shows a small, distorted, but overall clockwise-oriented Stokes Q--U loop during the third mid-infrared peak. Extrapolating the mid-infrared flux power law to the millimeter yields a variable flux consistent with the observed 220 GHz emission. These results, together with the Paper I modeling, plausibly suggest a single hotspot produced both the mid-infrared and millimeter variability during this event. However, additional flares are required to make a general statement about the millimeter and mid-infrared connection.

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arXiv2025

Photometric Constraints on Intermediate-mass Black Holes in the Galactic Centre

JWST/MIRI observations can place photometric limits on the presence of an intermediate-mass black hole (IMBH) near the Galactic Centre. The stellar complex IRS 13E, a co-moving conglomerate of young and massive stars, is a prime location to study because it has been speculated to be bound by an IMBH. Assuming a standard radiatively inefficient accretion flow (RIAF) and a minimum fractional variability of 10% of intrinsic luminosity, the wavelength of peak emission in the spectral energy distribution for an IMBH would lie in the mid-infrared ($\sim$ 5-25 $μ$m), and variability would be detectable in MIRI time-series observations. Monitoring fails to detect such variable emission (other than from Sgr A*) in and around the IRS 13E complex, and upper limits on a putative IMBH's intrinsic variability on timescales of minutes to about 1 hour are $\lesssim$1 mJy at 12 $μ$m and $\lesssim$2 mJy at 19 $μ$m. These translate to luminosities $\lesssim 25 \times 10^{32}$ erg/s. The resulting limits on the IMBH mass and accretion rate rule out any IMBH with mass $\gtrsim 10^3$ M$_\odot$ accreting at $\gtrsim 10^{-6}$ times Eddington rate at the location of IRS 13E. Further, the observations rule out an IMBH anywhere in the central 6" $\times$ 6" region that is more massive than $\approx$ 2 $\times 10^3$ M$_\odot$ and accreting at $\gtrsim 10^{-6}$ of the Eddington rate. Assuming Bondi accretion scaled to typical RIAF-accretion efficiencies, albeit somewhat uncertain, also allows us to rule out IMBHs moving with typical velocities of about 200 km/s and masses $\gtrsim 2 \times 10^3$ M$_\odot$. These methods showcase the effectiveness of photometric variability measurements in constraining the presence of accreting black holes in Galactic centre-like environments.

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arXiv2025

Mid-infrared extinction toward the Galactic center

We determine the mid-infrared (MIR, $\sim$5~μm--22~μm) extinction towards the Galactic center using MIRI/MRS integral field unit (IFU) observations of the central $3''\times3''$ region (near 5~μm) to $7''\times7''$ region (near 22~μm). To measure the MIR extinction, we employ two approaches: modeling the intrinsic-to-observed dust thermal spectrum and assessing the differential extinction between hydrogen recombination lines. Expanding on prior work, we directly model the dust-opacity distribution along the line of sight, and we make available a Python code that provides a flexible tool for deriving intrinsic dust emission spectra. We confirm the spatial variability of extinction across the field, demonstrating that dusty sources--such as IRS~29N--exhibit higher local extinction. Furthermore, we verify the absence of PAH emission features in the Galactic center MIR spectra. Using the two complementary methods, we derive a refined ``best guess'' MIR extinction law for Sgr A* and the surrounding Galactic-center region. By applying the extinction law to a MIR flare measurement discussed in a companion paper Michail et al. 2025, we estimate a residual relative extinction uncertainty for the short MIRI/MRS grating on the order of $0.2~\mathrm{mag}$ {from $\sim$5 to $\sim$18~μm\ and $\sim$0.3~mag from $\sim$18 to $\sim$22~μm}, consistent with our uncertainty estimate.

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arXiv2025

Tracking X-ray Variability in Next Generation EHT LLAGN Targets

We present a 5 month NICER X-ray monitoring campaign for two low luminosity active galactic nuclei (LLAGNs) -- NGC 4594 and IC 1459 -- with complementary Swift and NuSTAR observations. Utilizing an absorbed power law and thermal source model combined with NICER's SCORPEON background model, we demonstrate the effectiveness of joint source/background modeling for constraining emission from faint, background-dominated targets. Both sources are dominated by nuclear power law emission with photon indices $Γ\sim 1.5 - 2$, with NGC 4594 being slightly harder than IC 1459. The thermal contribution in both sources is fainter, but constant, with $kT \sim 0.5$ keV ($\sim 5 \times 10^6$ K). The power law flux and $Γ$ are strongly anti-correlated in both sources, as has been seen for other LLAGNs with radiatively inefficient accretion flows. NGC 4594 is the brighter source and exhibits significant aperiodic variability. Its variability timescale with an upper limit of $5 - 7$ days indicates emission originating from $< 100 R_{g}$, at the scale of the inner accretion flow. A spectral break found at $\sim 6$ keV, while tentative, could arise from synchrotron/inverse compton emission. This high-cadence LLAGN X-ray monitoring campaign underlines the importance of multi-wavelength variability studies for a sample of LLAGNs to truly understand their accretion and outflow physics.

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arXiv2025

First mid-infrared detection and modeling of a flare from Sgr A*

The time-variable emission from the accretion flow of Sgr A*, the supermassive black hole at the Galactic Center, has long been examined in the radio-to-mm, near-infrared (NIR), and X-ray regimes of the electromagnetic spectrum. However, until now, sensitivity and angular resolution have been insufficient in the crucial mid-infrared (MIR) regime. The MIRI instrument on JWST has changed that, and we report the first MIR detection of Sgr A*. The detection was during a flare that lasted about 40 minutes, a duration similar to NIR and X-ray flares, and the source's spectral index steepened as the flare ended. The steepening suggests synchrotron cooling is an important process for Sgr A*'s variability and implies magnetic field strengths $\sim$40--70 Gauss in the emission zone. Observations at $1.3~\mathrm{mm}$ with the Submillimeter Array revealed a counterpart flare lagging the MIR flare by $\approx$10 minutes. The observations can be self-consistently explained as synchrotron radiation from a single population of gradually cooling high-energy electrons accelerated through (a combination of) magnetic reconnection and/or magnetized turbulence.

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arXiv2024

Demographics of black holes at $<$100 R$_{\rm g}$ scales: accretion flows, jets, and shadows

Using the Event Horizon Telescope (EHT), the gravitationally lensed rings around the supermassive black holes (SMBHs) in Messier 87 (M87) and Sagittarius A* (Sgr A*) have now been successfully imaged at a resolution under 10 gravitational radii (R$_{\rm g}$ $ = \rm{GM/c^2}$). To expand studies beyond M87 and Sgr A*, we have constructed the Event Horizon and Environs (ETHER) sample, a comprehensive database encompassing approximately 3.15 million SMBH mass estimates, $\sim$ 20,000 Very-Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) radio flux densities, and $\sim$ 36,000 hard X-ray flux densities. This database is designed to identify and optimize target selection for the EHT and its upgrades on the ground and in space. We have identified a Gold Sample (GS) of nearby low-luminosity Active Galactic Nuclei (AGNs) within it that are ideal for studying jet bases and potentially imaging black hole shadows. We observed 27 of these AGNs using the EHT from 2022 to 2024, providing an opportunity to resolve and image accretion flows and jets at resolutions of $\leq$ 100 R$_{\rm g}$. Only a few SMBHs have sufficiently high enough flux density to be imaged at scales of $\leq$ 50 R$_{\rm g}$ with the present EHT. Among these are M87, Sgr A*, NGC4594 (Sombrero/M104), NGC4261, and NGC4374 (Messier 84/M84). Of these, NGC4261, Sombrero, and M84 have been observed and/or are scheduled for deep imaging with EHT+ALMA from 2023 to 2025. Sombrero, NGC4261, M84, NGC4278, and NGC5232 are clearly detected in our EHT+ALMA observations in 2022, indicating that the 230 GHz flux density from the accretion flows is significantly high. Ongoing imaging of the ETHER GS will enable measurements of black hole mass and spin, help constrain General Relativity, and enrich our understanding of jet launching and accretion inflows across a broad multi-parameter space, including black hole mass, spin, accretion rate, and orientation.

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arXiv2023

Spectroscopic r-Process Abundance Retrieval for Kilonovae II: Lanthanides in the Inferred Abundance Patterns of Multi-Component Ejecta from the GW170817 Kilonova

In kilonovae, freshly-synthesized $r$-process elements imprint features on optical spectra, as observed in AT2017gfo, the counterpart to the GW170817 binary neutron star merger. However, measuring the $r$-process compositions of the merger ejecta is computationally challenging. Vieira et al. (2023) introduced Spectroscopic $r$-Process Abundance Retrieval for Kilonovae (SPARK), a software tool to infer elemental abundance patterns of the ejecta, and associate spectral features with particular species. Previously, we applied SPARK to the 1.4 day spectrum of AT2017gfo and inferred its abundance pattern for the first time, characterized by electron fraction $Y_e=0.31$, a substantial abundance of strontium, and a dearth of lanthanides and heavier elements. This ejecta is consistent with wind from a remnant hypermassive neutron star and/or accretion disk. We now extend our inference to spectra at 2.4 and 3.4 days, and test the need for multicomponent ejecta, where we stratify the ejecta in composition. The ejecta at 1.4 and 2.4 days is described by the same single blue component. At 3.4 days, a new redder component with lower $Y_e=0.16$ and a significant abundance of lanthanides emerges. This new redder component is consistent with dynamical ejecta and/or neutron-rich ejecta from a magnetized accretion disk. As expected from photometric modelling, this component emerges as the ejecta expands, the photosphere recedes, and the earlier bluer component dims. At 3.4 days, we find an ensemble of lanthanides, with the presence of cerium most concrete. This presence of lanthanides has important implications for the contribution of kilonovae to the $r$-process abundances observed in the Universe.

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arXiv2021

Particle-in-cell Simulation of the Neutrino Fast Flavor Instability

Neutrinos drive core-collapse supernovae, launch outflows from neutron star merger accretion disks, and set the ratio of protons to neutrons in ejecta from both systems that generate heavy elements in the universe. Neutrinos of different flavors interact with matter differently, and much recent work has suggested that fast flavor instabilities are likely ubiquitous in both systems, but the final flavor content after the instability saturates has not been well understood. In this work we present particle-in-cell calculations which follow the evolution of all flavors of neutrinos and antineutrinos through saturation and kinematic decoherence. We conduct one-dimensional three-flavor simulations of neutrino quantum kinetics to demonstrate the outcome of this instability in a few example cases. We demonstrate the growth of both axially symmetric and asymmetric modes whose wavelength and growth rate match predictions from linear stability analysis. Finally, we vary the number density, flux magnitude, and flux direction of the neutrinos and antineutrinos and demonstrate that these factors modify both the growth rate and post-saturation neutrino flavor abundances. Weak electron lepton number (ELN) crossings in these simulations produce both slow growth of the instability and little difference between the flavor abundances in the initial and final states. In all of these calculations the same number of neutrinos and antineutrinos change flavor, making the least abundant between them the limiting factor for post-saturation flavor change. Many more simulations and multi-dimensional simulations are needed to fully probe the parameter space of the initial conditions.

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