arXiv subjects

Nils Bochow

Publications and source records attributed to Nils Bochow.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Fast Fourier Convolutional GAN for 30 m Clear-Sky Land Surface Temperature Gap-Free Reconstruction

Satellite-derived Land Surface Temperature (LST) provides spatially comprehensive data that ground stations cannot match. However, its utility is frequently limited by severe data gaps due to the presence of clouds. As LST is essential for understanding land-atmosphere interactions, numerous methods have been proposed to address this challenge. Yet, the development of a scalable and adaptable pipeline for generating gap-free LST datasets and reconstructing cloud-contaminated pixels remains challenging. Moreover, the reconstruction of extensive missing regions in fine-spatial-resolution observations is particularly difficult. To address this challenge, we propose a Multimodal Fast Fourier Convolutional GAN for reconstructing cloud-contaminated pixels in fine-resolution (30 m) Landsat imagery to generate gap-free clear-sky LST products. The method leverages Fast Fourier Convolution to enable a global receptive field across the image, and is guided by a stack of data consisting of satellite observations and Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data. Across all LST quantiles, the interquartile range of scene-averaged RMSE (computed over reconstructed pixels) is consistently between 0.8 K and 1.8 K. The proposed approach enables the recovery of extensive missing regions, including scenes with more than 70% cloud-induced gaps, while relying on auxiliary data that are readily available at a near-global scale.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2026

Generative deep learning improves reconstruction of global historical climate records

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic climate change relies on historical instrumental data, yet observations from the early 20th century are sparse, fragmented, and uncertain. Conventional reconstructions rely on disparate statistical interpolation, which tends to smooth local features and create unphysical artifacts, often leading to an underestimation of intrinsic variability and extremes. While recent machine learning approaches have improved reconstruction accuracy, they remain confined to purely spatial inpainting of coarse-resolution fields. Here, we present a unified, probabilistic generative deep learning framework that overcomes these limitations and reveals previously unresolved historical climate variability back to 1850. Leveraging a learned generative prior of Earth system dynamics, our model performs probabilistic inference to estimate spatiotemporally consistent historical temperature and precipitation fields from sparse observations. Our approach preserves the higher-order statistics of climate dynamics, transforming reconstruction into a robust uncertainty-aware assessment. We demonstrate that our reconstruction mitigates the smoothing effects inherent in widely used historical reference products, including those underlying IPCC assessments, especially regarding extreme weather events. Notably, we uncover higher early 20th-century global warming levels compared to existing reconstructions, primarily driven by more pronounced polar warming, with mean Arctic warming trends exceeding established benchmarks by 0.15--0.29C per decade for 1900--1980. Conversely, for the modern era, our reconstruction indicates that the broad Arctic warming trend is likely overestimated in recent assessments, yet explicitly resolves previously unrecognized intense, localized hotspots in the Barents Sea and Northeastern Greenland.

physics.geo-ph↗

arXiv2025

Physics-constrained generative machine learning-based high-resolution downscaling of Greenland's surface mass balance and surface temperature

Accurate, high-resolution projections of the Greenland ice sheet's surface mass balance (SMB) and surface temperature are essential for understanding future sea-level rise, yet current approaches are either computationally demanding or limited to coarse spatial scales. Here, we introduce a novel physics-constrained generative modeling framework based on a consistency model (CM) to downscale low-resolution SMB and surface temperature fields by a factor of up to 32 (from 160 km to 5 km grid spacing) in a few sampling steps. The CM is trained on monthly outputs of the regional climate model MARv3.12 and conditioned on ice-sheet topography and insolation. By enforcing a hard conservation constraint during inference, we ensure approximate preservation of SMB and temperature sums on the coarse spatial scale as well as robust generalization to extreme climate states without retraining. On the test set, our constrained CM achieves a continued ranked probability score of 6.31 mmWE for the SMB and 0.1 K for the surface temperature, outperforming interpolation-based downscaling. Together with spatial power-spectral analysis, we demonstrate that the CM faithfully reproduces variability across spatial scales. We further apply bias-corrected outputs of the NorESM2 Earth System Model as inputs to our CM, to demonstrate the potential of our model to directly downscale ESM fields. Our approach delivers realistic, high-resolution climate forcing for ice-sheet simulations with fast inference and can be readily integrated into Earth-system and ice-sheet model workflows to improve projections of the future contribution to sea-level rise from Greenland and potentially other ice sheets and glaciers too.

physics.geo-ph↗

arXiv2023

Reconstructing Historical Climate Fields With Deep Learning

Historical records of climate fields are often sparse due to missing measurements, especially before the introduction of large-scale satellite missions. Several statistical and model-based methods have been introduced to fill gaps and reconstruct historical records. Here, we employ a recently introduced deep-learning approach based on Fourier convolutions, trained on numerical climate model output, to reconstruct historical climate fields. Using this approach we are able to realistically reconstruct large and irregular areas of missing data, as well as reconstruct known historical events such as strong El Ni\~no and La Ni\~na with very little given information. Our method outperforms the widely used statistical kriging method as well as other recent machine learning approaches. The model generalizes to higher resolutions than the ones it was trained on and can be used on a variety of climate fields. Moreover, it allows inpainting of masks never seen before during the model training.

physics.geo-ph↗