Generative deep learning improves reconstruction of global historical climate records

Abstract

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic climate change relies on historical instrumental data, yet observations from the early 20th century are sparse, fragmented, and uncertain. Conventional reconstructions rely on disparate statistical interpolation, which tends to smooth local features and create unphysical artifacts, often leading to an underestimation of intrinsic variability and extremes. While recent machine learning approaches have improved reconstruction accuracy, they remain confined to purely spatial inpainting of coarse-resolution fields. Here, we present a unified, probabilistic generative deep learning framework that overcomes these limitations and reveals previously unresolved historical climate variability back to 1850. Leveraging a learned generative prior of Earth system dynamics, our model performs probabilistic inference to estimate spatiotemporally consistent historical temperature and precipitation fields from sparse observations. Our approach preserves the higher-order statistics of climate dynamics, transforming reconstruction into a robust uncertainty-aware assessment. We demonstrate that our reconstruction mitigates the smoothing effects inherent in widely used historical reference products, including those underlying IPCC assessments, especially regarding extreme weather events. Notably, we uncover higher early 20th-century global warming levels compared to existing reconstructions, primarily driven by more pronounced polar warming, with mean Arctic warming trends exceeding established benchmarks by 0.15--0.29C per decade for 1900--1980. Conversely, for the modern era, our reconstruction indicates that the broad Arctic warming trend is likely overestimated in recent assessments, yet explicitly resolves previously unrecognized intense, localized hotspots in the Barents Sea and Northeastern Greenland.