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Noah Golowich

Publications and source records attributed to Noah Golowich.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
arXiv2026

Breaking the $T^{2/3}$ Barrier for Sequential Calibration

A set of probabilistic forecasts is calibrated if each prediction of the forecaster closely approximates the empirical distribution of outcomes on the subset of timesteps where that prediction was made. We study the fundamental problem of online calibrated forecasting of binary sequences under the standard $\ell_1$ calibration error metric, which was initially studied by Foster & Vohra (1998). They derived an algorithm with $O(T^{2/3})$ calibration error after $T$ time steps, and showed a lower bound of $Ω(T^{1/2})$. These bounds remained stagnant for two decades, until Qiao & Valiant (2021) improved the lower bound to $Ω(T^{0.528})$ by introducing a combinatorial game called sign preservation and showing that lower bounds for this game imply lower bounds for calibration. In this paper, we give the first improvement to the $O(T^{2/3})$ upper bound on calibration error of Foster & Vohra. We do this by introducing a variant of Qiao & Valiant's game that we call sign preservation with reuse (SPR). We prove that the relationship between SPR and calibrated forecasting is bidirectional: not only do lower bounds for SPR translate into lower bounds for calibration, but algorithms for SPR also translate into new algorithms for calibrated forecasting. We then give an improved upper bound for the SPR game, which implies, via our equivalence, a forecasting algorithm with calibration error $O(T^{2/3 - \varepsilon})$ for some $\varepsilon > 0$, improving Foster & Vohra's upper bound for the first time. Using similar ideas, we then prove a slightly stronger lower bound than that of Qiao & Valiant, namely $Ω(T^{0.54389})$. Our lower bound is obtained by an oblivious adversary, marking the first $ω(T^{1/2})$ calibration lower bound for oblivious adversaries.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

The Fine-Grained Complexity of Approximate Nash Equilibrium and Free Games

We study the fine-grained complexity of computing approximate Nash equilibria and approximating the value of free games in the regime where the approximation error vanishes. Under the PCP for PPAD and ETH for PPAD conjectures, we show that computing $\varepsilon$-approximate Nash equilibria in 2-player $N$-action normal-form games requires time $N^{(\log(N)/\varepsilon^2)^{1-o(1)}}$, thus showing that the classical Lipton-Markakis-Mehta algorithm (2003) is optimal through all regimes of $\varepsilon = ω(1/\sqrt{N})$. While such optimality was known in the constant-$\varepsilon$ regime (Rubinstein, 2016), previous work could only rule out significantly smaller running times of $N^{O(\log(N)/\varepsilon)}$ in the regime $\varepsilon = o(1)$. Using similar techniques, we then establish an analogous tight lower bound of $N^{(\log(N)/\varepsilon^2)^{1-o(1)}}$ under ETH for $\varepsilon$-additive value estimation in free games, when $\varepsilon \geq 2^{-o(\sqrt{\log N})}$, answering a question of Aaronson, Impagliazzo, and Moshkovitz (2014).

cs.GT↗
arXiv2026

High-Dimensional Calibration from Swap Regret

We study online calibration of multi-dimensional forecasts over an arbitrary convex set $P \subset \mathbb{R}^d$ relative to an arbitrary norm $|\cdot|$. We connect this to external regret minimization for online linear optimization (OLO): if one can guarantee $O(\sqrt{ρT})$ worst-case regret after $T$ rounds when actions are drawn from $P$ and losses from the dual $|\cdot|_*$ unit norm ball, then one can obtain $ε$-calibrated forecasts after $T = \exp(\tilde O(ρ/ε^2))$ rounds. When $P$ is the $d$-dimensional simplex and $|\cdot|$ is the $\ell_1$-norm, the $O(\sqrt{T\log d})$ experts regret bound yields $ε$-calibrated forecasts after $T = \exp(\tilde O(\log d/ε^2)) = d^{\tilde O(1/ε^2)}$ rounds, recovering a recent result of Peng (2025). Interestingly, our algorithm obtains this guarantee without requiring access to any online linear optimization subroutine or knowledge of the optimal rate $ρ$ -- in fact, our algorithm is identical for every setting of $P$ and $|\cdot|$. Instead, we show that the optimal regularizer for the above OLO problem can be used to upper bound the above calibration error by a swap regret, which we then minimize by running the recent TreeSwap algorithm (Dagan et al., 2024; Peng and Rubinstein, 2024) with Follow-The-Leader as a subroutine. The resulting algorithm is highly efficient and plays a distribution over simple averages of past observations in each round. Finally, we prove that any online calibration algorithm that guarantees $εT$ $\ell_1$-calibration error over the $d$-dimensional simplex requires $T \geq \exp(\mathrm{poly}(1/ε))$ (assuming $d \geq \mathrm{poly}(1/ε)$). This strengthens the corresponding $d^{Ω(\log(1/ε))}$ lower bound of Peng (2025), and shows that an exponential dependence on $1/ε$ is necessary.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

Improved Pseudorandom Codes from Permuted Puzzles

Watermarks are an essential tool for identifying AI-generated content. Recently, Christ and Gunn (CRYPTO '24) introduced pseudorandom error-correcting codes (PRCs), which are equivalent to watermarks with strong robustness and quality guarantees. A PRC is a pseudorandom encryption scheme whose decryption algorithm tolerates a high rate of errors. Pseudorandomness ensures quality preservation of the watermark, and error tolerance of decryption translates to the watermark's ability to withstand modification of the content. In the short time since the introduction of PRCs, several works (NeurIPS '24, RANDOM '25, STOC '25) have proposed new constructions. Curiously, all of these constructions are vulnerable to quasipolynomial-time distinguishing attacks. Furthermore, all lack robustness to edits over a constant-sized alphabet, which is necessary for a meaningfully robust LLM watermark. Lastly, they lack robustness to adversaries who know the watermarking detection key. Until now, it was not clear whether any of these properties was achievable individually, let alone together. We construct pseudorandom codes that achieve all of the above: plausible subexponential pseudorandomness security, robustness to worst-case edits over a binary alphabet, and robustness against even computationally unbounded adversaries that have the detection key. Pseudorandomness rests on a new assumption that we formalize, the permuted codes conjecture, which states that a distribution of permuted noisy codewords is pseudorandom. We show that this conjecture is implied by the permuted puzzles conjecture used previously to construct doubly efficient private information retrieval. To give further evidence, we show that the conjecture holds against a broad class of simple distinguishers, including read-once branching programs.

cs.CR↗
arXiv2026

Learning with Simulators: No Regret in a Computationally Bounded World

Understanding the minimal assumptions necessary for generalization is the fundamental question in learning theory. Unfortunately, most results rely heavily on independence (or some proxy thereof) of the data-generating process, while results for strongly dependent data are far more limited. Towards addressing this gap, we introduce the framework of simulatable processes, where the learner has access to a simulator that approximates the distribution generating the data (which may be an arbitrarily complex and dependent process). Surprisingly, given access to such a simulator, we show that we can recover the same learning guarantees as in the classical setting with independent data, namely, error bounds that depend on the VC dimension. Further, we use this framework to study the power of conditional sampling and show strict statistical and computational advantages in this setting. As a highlight of our framework, we exhibit a single algorithm that simultaneously learns any given VC class under all processes samplable in bounded polynomial time, with regret controlled by the time-bounded Kolmogorov complexity of the process. This provides a significant conceptual broadening of the classical PAC model.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

The Power of Test-Time Training for Approximate Sampling

Efficiently sampling from a complex probability distribution is a fundamental problem which has become increasingly pertinent in recent years with the rise of generative AI, as sophisticated sampling procedures from LLMs have been proposed to solve challenging reasoning problems. The efficacy of such sampling algorithms is limited, however, by the relationship between the LLM and the particular sampling task at hand, which has motivated the framework of test-time training (TTT). TTT works by updating a model's weights in response to partial generations and reward feedback received at inference time, thus adapting to the particular problem. In this work, we propose a formalization for TTT as the problem of producing a sample from a given probability measure $μ^\star$ belonging to a known class ${F}$ of distributions, given an oracle $\hat μ$ which yields approximate density estimates for $μ^\star$. This is closely related to the problem of reducing sampling to approximate counting studied in seminal works of Jerrum, Valiant & Vazirani (1986) and Jerrum & Sinclair (1989): namely, when ${F}$ is the class of all distributions, it coincides exactly with the aforementioned counting-to-sampling reduction. In this paper, we first show a quadratic lower bound on the query complexity of sampling from $μ^\star$ given query access to $\hat μ$ (for sufficiently large classes ${F}$), thus showing that the random walk approach proposed by Jerrum & Sinclair (1989) and refined by Hayes & Sinclair (2010), is optimal. This answers an open question posed by Hayes & Sinclair. We then show that this lower bound can be circumvented if the size of ${F}$ is bounded appropriately. As we discuss, this latter result can be viewed as an abstraction of TTT, and thus represents a starting point for the development of a principled theoretical framework for TTT.

cs.DS↗
arXiv2026

On the Complexity of Correlated Equilibria Beyond Normal-Form Games

Correlated equilibria are a fundamental solution concept in game theory. However, despite decades of research, the complexity beyond games of polynomial type -- such as extensive-form games, congestion or routing games, and more broadly concave games -- has remained a major open problem, first highlighted by Papadimitriou and Roughgarden (JACM '08). In this paper, we resolve several long-standing questions concerning the complexity of correlated equilibria and swap regret minimization. First, we show that computing a correlated equilibrium in concave quadratic games is as hard as computing the fixed point of a contraction mapping (Contr), providing the first strong evidence of intractability. Moreover, we establish an unconditional, information-theoretic lower bound ruling out the existence of a strongly sublinear swap regret minimizer: any online learning algorithm requires exponentially many iterations in the dimension $d$ to guarantee at most $1/\text{poly}(d)$ (average) swap regret. To circumvent these hardness results, we examine the complexity of $Φ$-equilibria -- tractable relaxations of correlated equilibria. We obtain a fully polynomial-time approximation scheme (FPTAS) for computing poly-dimensional $Φ$-equilibria in general concave games. We complement this by showing that Contr-hardness persists even under poly-dimensional swap deviations in the regime where the precision $ε$ is exponentially small. Finally, we show that Contr-hardness can be bypassed in the canonical setting of concave \emph{quadratic games}, for which we provide a $\text{poly}(d, \log(1/ε))$-time algorithm for computing poly-dimensional $Φ$-equilibria. As a byproduct, we obtain an algorithm for computing fixed points of a mapping that is contracting with respect to an unknown Mahalanobis norm, which could be of independent interest.

cs.GT↗
arXiv2026

Reject, Resample, Repeat: Understanding Parallel Reasoning in Language Model Inference

Inference-time methods that aggregate and prune multiple samples have emerged as a powerful paradigm for steering large language models, yet we lack any principled understanding of their accuracy-cost tradeoffs. In this paper, we introduce a route to rigorously study such approaches using the lens of *particle filtering* algorithms such as Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC). Given a base language model and a *process reward model* estimating expected terminal rewards, we ask: *how accurately can we sample from a target distribution given some number of process reward evaluations?* Theoretically, we identify (1) simple criteria enabling non-asymptotic guarantees for SMC; (2) algorithmic improvements to SMC; and (3) a fundamental limit faced by all particle filtering methods. Empirically, we demonstrate that our theoretical criteria effectively govern the *sampling error* of SMC, though not necessarily its final *accuracy*, suggesting that theoretical perspectives beyond sampling may be necessary.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

Subliminal Effects in Your Data: A General Mechanism via Log-Linearity

Training modern large language models (LLMs) has become a veritable smorgasbord of algorithms and datasets designed to elicit particular behaviors, making it critical to develop techniques to understand the effects of datasets on the model's properties. This is exacerbated by recent experiments that show datasets can transmit signals that are not directly observable from individual datapoints, posing a conceptual challenge for dataset-centric understandings of LLM training and suggesting a missing fundamental account of such phenomena. Towards understanding such effects, inspired by recent work on the linear structure of LLMs, we uncover a general mechanism through which hidden subtexts can arise in generic datasets. We introduce Logit-Linear-Selection (LLS), a method that prescribes how to select subsets of a generic preference dataset to elicit a wide range of hidden effects. We apply LLS to discover subsets of real-world datasets so that models trained on them exhibit behaviors ranging from having specific preferences, to responding to prompts in a different language not present in the dataset, to taking on a different persona. Crucially, the effect persists for the selected subset, across models with varying architectures, supporting its generality and universality.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2025

Provably Learning from Modern Language Models via Low Logit Rank

While modern language models and their inner workings are incredibly complex, recent work (Golowich, Liu & Shetty; 2025) has proposed a simple and potentially tractable abstraction for them through the observation that empirically, these language models all seem to have approximately low logit rank. Roughly, this means that a matrix formed by the model's log probabilities of various tokens conditioned on certain sequences of tokens is well approximated by a low rank matrix. In this paper, our focus is on understanding how this structure can be exploited algorithmically for obtaining provable learning guarantees. Since low logit rank models can encode hard-to-learn distributions such as noisy parities, we study a query learning model with logit queries that reflects the access model for common APIs. Our main result is an efficient algorithm for learning any approximately low logit rank model from queries. We emphasize that our structural assumption closely reflects the behavior that is empirically observed in modern language models. Thus, our result gives what we believe is the first end-to-end learning guarantee for a generative model that plausibly captures modern language models.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2025

Sequences of Logits Reveal the Low Rank Structure of Language Models

A major problem in the study of large language models is to understand their inherent low-dimensional structure. We introduce an approach to study the low-dimensional structure of language models at a model-agnostic level: as sequential probabilistic models. We first empirically demonstrate that a wide range of modern language models exhibit low-rank structure: in particular, matrices built from the model's logits for varying sets of prompts and responses have low approximate rank. We then show that this low-rank structure can be leveraged for generation -- in particular, we can generate a response to a target prompt using a linear combination of the model's outputs on unrelated, or even nonsensical prompts. On the theoretical front, we observe that studying the approximate rank of language models in the sense discussed above yields a simple universal abstraction whose theoretical predictions parallel our experiments. We then analyze the representation power of the abstraction and give provable learning guarantees.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2025

The Coverage Principle: How Pre-Training Enables Post-Training

Language models demonstrate remarkable abilities when pre-trained on large text corpora and fine-tuned for specific tasks, but how and why pre-training shapes the success of the final model remains poorly understood. Notably, although pre-training success is often quantified by cross-entropy loss, cross-entropy can be a poor predictor of downstream performance. Instead, we provide a theoretical perspective on this relationship through the lens of \emph{coverage}, which quantifies the probability mass the pre-trained model places on high-quality responses and which is necessary and sufficient for post-training and test-time scaling methods such as Best-of-N to succeed. Our main results develop an understanding of \emph{the coverage principle}, a phenomenon whereby next-token prediction (more generally, maximum likelihood) implicitly optimizes toward a model with good coverage. In particular, we uncover a mechanism that explains the power of coverage in predicting downstream performance: \emph{coverage generalizes faster than cross-entropy}, avoiding spurious dependence on problem-dependent parameters such as the sequence length. We also study practical algorithmic interventions with provable benefits for improving coverage, including (i) model/checkpoint selection procedures, (ii) gradient normalization schemes, and (iii) test-time decoding strategies.

stat.ML↗
arXiv2025

The Hidden Game Problem

This paper investigates a class of games with large strategy spaces, motivated by challenges in AI alignment and language games. We introduce the hidden game problem, where for each player, an unknown subset of strategies consistently yields higher rewards compared to the rest. The central question is whether efficient regret minimization algorithms can be designed to discover and exploit such hidden structures, leading to equilibrium in these subgames while maintaining rationality in general. We answer this question affirmatively by developing a composition of regret minimization techniques that achieve optimal external and swap regret bounds. Our approach ensures rapid convergence to correlated equilibria in hidden subgames, leveraging the hidden game structure for improved computational efficiency.

cs.AI↗
arXiv2025

Edit Distance Robust Watermarks via Indexing Pseudorandom Codes

Motivated by the problem of detecting AI-generated text, we consider the problem of watermarking the output of language models with provable guarantees. We aim for watermarks which satisfy: (a) undetectability, a cryptographic notion introduced by Christ, Gunn & Zamir (2024) which stipulates that it is computationally hard to distinguish watermarked language model outputs from the model's actual output distribution; and (b) robustness to channels which introduce a constant fraction of adversarial insertions, substitutions, and deletions to the watermarked text. Earlier schemes could only handle stochastic substitutions and deletions, and thus we are aiming for a more natural and appealing robustness guarantee that holds with respect to edit distance. Our main result is a watermarking scheme which achieves both undetectability and robustness to edits when the alphabet size for the language model is allowed to grow as a polynomial in the security parameter. To derive such a scheme, we follow an approach introduced by Christ & Gunn (2024), which proceeds via first constructing pseudorandom codes satisfying undetectability and robustness properties analogous to those above; our key idea is to handle adversarial insertions and deletions by interpreting the symbols as indices into the codeword, which we call indexing pseudorandom codes. Additionally, our codes rely on weaker computational assumptions than used in previous work. Then we show that there is a generic transformation from such codes over large alphabets to watermarking schemes for arbitrary language models.

cs.CR↗
arXiv2025

From External to Swap Regret 2.0: An Efficient Reduction and Oblivious Adversary for Large Action Spaces

We provide a novel reduction from swap-regret minimization to external-regret minimization, which improves upon the classical reductions of Blum-Mansour [BM07] and Stolz-Lugosi [SL05] in that it does not require finiteness of the space of actions. We show that, whenever there exists a no-external-regret algorithm for some hypothesis class, there must also exist a no-swap-regret algorithm for that same class. For the problem of learning with expert advice, our result implies that it is possible to guarantee that the swap regret is bounded by ε after $\log(N)^{O(1/ε)}$ rounds and with $O(N)$ per iteration complexity, where $N$ is the number of experts, while the classical reductions of Blum-Mansour and Stolz-Lugosi require $O(N/ε^2)$ rounds and at least $Ω(N^2)$ per iteration complexity. Our result comes with an associated lower bound, which -- in contrast to that in [BM07] -- holds for oblivious and $\ell_1$-constrained adversaries and learners that can employ distributions over experts, showing that the number of rounds must be $\tildeΩ(N/ε^2)$ or exponential in $1/ε$. Our reduction implies that, if no-regret learning is possible in some game, then this game must have approximate correlated equilibria, of arbitrarily good approximation. This strengthens the folklore implication of no-regret learning that approximate coarse correlated equilibria exist. Importantly, it provides a sufficient condition for the existence of correlated equilibrium which vastly extends the requirement that the action set is finite, thus answering a question left open by [DG22; Ass+23]. Moreover, it answers several outstanding questions about equilibrium computation and learning in games.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2025

Is Efficient PAC Learning Possible with an Oracle That Responds 'Yes' or 'No'?

The empirical risk minimization (ERM) principle has been highly impactful in machine learning, leading both to near-optimal theoretical guarantees for ERM-based learning algorithms as well as driving many of the recent empirical successes in deep learning. In this paper, we investigate the question of whether the ability to perform ERM, which computes a hypothesis minimizing empirical risk on a given dataset, is necessary for efficient learning: in particular, is there a weaker oracle than ERM which can nevertheless enable learnability? We answer this question affirmatively, showing that in the realizable setting of PAC learning for binary classification, a concept class can be learned using an oracle which only returns a single bit indicating whether a given dataset is realizable by some concept in the class. The sample complexity and oracle complexity of our algorithm depend polynomially on the VC dimension of the hypothesis class, thus showing that there is only a polynomial price to pay for use of our weaker oracle. Our results extend to the agnostic learning setting with a slight strengthening of the oracle, as well as to the partial concept, multiclass and real-valued learning settings. In the setting of partial concept classes, prior to our work no oracle-efficient algorithms were known, even with a standard ERM oracle. Thus, our results address a question of Alon et al. (2021) who asked whether there are algorithmic principles which enable efficient learnability in this setting.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2025

The Role of Sparsity for Length Generalization in Transformers

Training large language models to predict beyond their training context lengths has drawn much attention in recent years, yet the principles driving such behavior of length generalization remain underexplored. We propose a new theoretical framework to study length generalization for the next-token prediction task, as performed by decoder-only transformers. Conceptually, we show that length generalization occurs as long as each predicted token depends on a small (fixed) number of previous tokens. We formalize such tasks via a notion we call $k$-sparse planted correlation distributions, and show that an idealized model of transformers which generalize attention heads successfully length-generalize on such tasks. As a bonus, our theoretical model justifies certain techniques to modify positional embeddings which have been introduced to improve length generalization, such as position coupling. We support our theoretical results with experiments on synthetic tasks and natural language, which confirm that a key factor driving length generalization is a ``sparse'' dependency structure of each token on the previous ones. Inspired by our theory, we introduce Predictive Position Coupling, which trains the transformer to predict the position IDs used in a positional coupling approach. Predictive Position Coupling thereby allows us to broaden the array of tasks to which position coupling can successfully be applied to achieve length generalization.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2024

Smooth Nash Equilibria: Algorithms and Complexity

A fundamental shortcoming of the concept of Nash equilibrium is its computational intractability: approximating Nash equilibria in normal-form games is PPAD-hard. In this paper, inspired by the ideas of smoothed analysis, we introduce a relaxed variant of Nash equilibrium called $σ$-smooth Nash equilibrium, for a smoothness parameter $σ$. In a $σ$-smooth Nash equilibrium, players only need to achieve utility at least as high as their best deviation to a $σ$-smooth strategy, which is a distribution that does not put too much mass (as parametrized by $σ$) on any fixed action. We distinguish two variants of $σ$-smooth Nash equilibria: strong $σ$-smooth Nash equilibria, in which players are required to play $σ$-smooth strategies under equilibrium play, and weak $σ$-smooth Nash equilibria, where there is no such requirement. We show that both weak and strong $σ$-smooth Nash equilibria have superior computational properties to Nash equilibria: when $σ$ as well as an approximation parameter $ε$ and the number of players are all constants, there is a constant-time randomized algorithm to find a weak $ε$-approximate $σ$-smooth Nash equilibrium in normal-form games. In the same parameter regime, there is a polynomial-time deterministic algorithm to find a strong $ε$-approximate $σ$-smooth Nash equilibrium in a normal-form game. These results stand in contrast to the optimal algorithm for computing $ε$-approximate Nash equilibria, which cannot run in faster than quasipolynomial-time. We complement our upper bounds by showing that when either $σ$ or $ε$ is an inverse polynomial, finding a weak $ε$-approximate $σ$-smooth Nash equilibria becomes computationally intractable.

cs.GT↗