Searcharxiv⌕ Search

arXiv subjects

Oscar Hernan Madrid Padilla

Publications and source records attributed to Oscar Hernan Madrid Padilla.

62 records · Page 4Linked to original sources

A deconvolution path for mixtures

We propose a class of estimators for deconvolution in mixture models based on a simple two-step "bin-and-smooth" procedure applied to histogram counts. The method is both statistically and computationally efficient: by exploiting recent advances in convex optimization, we are able to provide a full deconvolution path that shows the estimate for the mixing distribution across a range of plausible degrees of smoothness, at far less cost than a full Bayesian analysis. This enables practitioners to conduct a sensitivity analysis with minimal effort. This is especially important for applied data analysis, given the ill-posed nature of the deconvolution problem. Our results establish the favorable theoretical properties of our estimator and show that it offers state-of-the-art performance when compared to benchmark methods across a range of scenarios.

stat.ME↗

Worst portfolios for dynamic monetary utility processes

We study the worst portfolios for a class of law invariant dynamic monetary utility functions with domain in a class of stochastic processes. The concept of comonotonicity is introduced for these processes in order to prove the existence of worst portfolios. Using robust representations of monetary utility function processes in discrete time, a relation between the worst portfolios at different periods of time is presented. Finally, we study conditions to achieve the maximum in the representation theorems for concave monetary utility functions that are continuous for bounded decreasing sequences.

math.OC↗

The DFS Fused Lasso: Linear-Time Denoising over General Graphs

The fused lasso, also known as (anisotropic) total variation denoising, is widely used for piecewise constant signal estimation with respect to a given undirected graph. The fused lasso estimate is highly nontrivial to compute when the underlying graph is large and has an arbitrary structure. But for a special graph structure, namely, the chain graph, the fused lasso---or simply, 1d fused lasso---can be computed in linear time. In this paper, we establish a surprising connection between the total variation of a generic signal defined over an arbitrary graph, and the total variation of this signal over a chain graph induced by running depth-first search (DFS) over the nodes of the graph. Specifically, we prove that for any signal, its total variation over the induced chain graph is no more than twice its total variation over the original graph. This connection leads to several interesting theoretical and computational conclusions. Denoting by $m$ and $n$ the number of edges and nodes, respectively, of the graph in question, our result implies that for an underlying signal with total variation $t$ over the graph, the fused lasso achieves a mean squared error rate of \smash{$t^{2/3} n^{-2/3}$}. Moreover, precisely the same mean squared error rate is achieved by running the 1d fused lasso on the induced chain graph from running DFS. Importantly, the latter estimator is simple and computationally cheap, requiring only $O(m)$ operations for constructing the DFS-induced chain and $O(n)$ operations for computing the 1d fused lasso solution over this chain. Further, for trees that have bounded max degree, the error rate of \smash{$t^{2/3} n^{-2/3}$} cannot be improved, in the sense that it is the minimax rate for signals that have total variation $t$ over the tree.

math.ST↗

Sequential nonparametric tests for a change in distribution: an application to detecting radiological anomalies

We propose a sequential nonparametric test for detecting a change in distribution, based on windowed Kolmogorov--Smirnov statistics. The approach is simple, robust, highly computationally efficient, easy to calibrate, and requires no parametric assumptions about the underlying null and alternative distributions. We show that both the false-alarm rate and the power of our procedure are amenable to rigorous analysis, and that the method outperforms existing sequential testing procedures in practice. We then apply the method to the problem of detecting radiological anomalies, using data collected from measurements of the background gamma-radiation spectrum on a large university campus. In this context, the proposed method leads to substantial improvements in time-to-detection for the kind of radiological anomalies of interest in law-enforcement and border-security applications.

stat.ME↗

Tensor decomposition with generalized lasso penalties

We present an approach for penalized tensor decomposition (PTD) that estimates smoothly varying latent factors in multi-way data. This generalizes existing work on sparse tensor decomposition and penalized matrix decompositions, in a manner parallel to the generalized lasso for regression and smoothing problems. Our approach presents many nontrivial challenges at the intersection of modeling and computation, which are studied in detail. An efficient coordinate-wise optimization algorithm for (PTD) is presented, and its convergence properties are characterized. The method is applied both to simulated data and real data on flu hospitalizations in Texas. These results show that our penalized tensor decomposition can offer major improvements on existing methods for analyzing multi-way data that exhibit smooth spatial or temporal features.

stat.ME↗

Nonparametric density estimation by histogram trend filtering

We propose a novel approach for density estimation called histogram trend filtering. Our estimator arises from looking at surrogate Poisson model for counts of observations in a partition of the support of the data. We begin by showing consistency for a variational estimator for this density estimation problem. We then study a discrete estimator that can be efficiently found via convex optimization. We show that the estimator enjoys strong statistical guarantees, yet is much more practical and computationally efficient than other estimators that enjoy similar guarantees. Finally, in our simulation study the proposed method showed smaller averaged mean square error than competing methods. This favorable blend of properties makes histogram trend filtering an ideal candidate for use in routine data-analysis applications that call for a quick, efficient, accurate density estimate.

stat.ME↗

Priors for Random Count Matrices Derived from a Family of Negative Binomial Processes

We define a family of probability distributions for random count matrices with a potentially unbounded number of rows and columns. The three distributions we consider are derived from the gamma-Poisson, gamma-negative binomial, and beta-negative binomial processes. Because the models lead to closed-form Gibbs sampling update equations, they are natural candidates for nonparametric Bayesian priors over count matrices. A key aspect of our analysis is the recognition that, although the random count matrices within the family are defined by a row-wise construction, their columns can be shown to be i.i.d. This fact is used to derive explicit formulas for drawing all the columns at once. Moreover, by analyzing these matrices' combinatorial structure, we describe how to sequentially construct a column-i.i.d. random count matrix one row at a time, and derive the predictive distribution of a new row count vector with previously unseen features. We describe the similarities and differences between the three priors, and argue that the greater flexibility of the gamma- and beta- negative binomial processes, especially their ability to model over-dispersed, heavy-tailed count data, makes these well suited to a wide variety of real-world applications. As an example of our framework, we construct a naive-Bayes text classifier to categorize a count vector to one of several existing random count matrices of different categories. The classifier supports an unbounded number of features, and unlike most existing methods, it does not require a predefined finite vocabulary to be shared by all the categories, and needs neither feature selection nor parameter tuning. Both the gamma- and beta- negative binomial processes are shown to significantly outperform the gamma-Poisson process for document categorization, with comparable performance to other state-of-the-art supervised text classification algorithms.

stat.ME↗

Vector-Space Markov Random Fields via Exponential Families

We present Vector-Space Markov Random Fields (VS-MRFs), a novel class of undirected graphical models where each variable can belong to an arbitrary vector space. VS-MRFs generalize a recent line of work on scalar-valued, uni-parameter exponential family and mixed graphical models, thereby greatly broadening the class of exponential families available (e.g., allowing multinomial and Dirichlet distributions). Specifically, VS-MRFs are the joint graphical model distributions where the node-conditional distributions belong to generic exponential families with general vector space domains. We also present a sparsistent $M$-estimator for learning our class of MRFs that recovers the correct set of edges with high probability. We validate our approach via a set of synthetic data experiments as well as a real-world case study of over four million foods from the popular diet tracking app MyFitnessPal. Our results demonstrate that our algorithm performs well empirically and that VS-MRFs are capable of capturing and highlighting interesting structure in complex, real-world data. All code for our algorithm is open source and publicly available.

stat.ML↗