arXiv subjects

Paul Tiede

Publications and source records attributed to Paul Tiede.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Resolving Nearby Supermassive Black Holes with the Black Hole Explorer

Recent Event Horizon Telescope results have demonstrated unique and transformative science in gravitational physics and black hole astrophysics enabled by event-horizon-scale imaging of supermassive black holes (SMBHs). Nevertheless, the angular resolution of current ground-based very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) arrays limits such studies to only two sources, precluding systematic investigations of horizon-scale emission across a nearby SMBH population. The proposed Black Hole Explorer (BHEX), a millimeter/submillimeter space VLBI mission, would overcome this limitation by delivering substantially higher angular resolution. Here, we present a series of simulated observations to assess a population of nearby horizon-scale targets accessible with BHEX. Based on a recently developed SMBH number density model, we find that BHEX could infer black hole masses for ~70-90 sources from size measurements, constrain magnetic field structures through linear polarization imaging for ~20-30 sources, and resolve black hole shadows for ~20-25 sources. Targeted observations of ~50 nearby SMBHs are expected to yield measurements for ~30 source sizes and ~10 shadows and linear-polarization patterns. These projections are supported by detailed imaging simulations of general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic (GRMHD) models for eleven nearby SMBHs. Together, our results highlight BHEX as a powerful facility for revealing the demographics of SMBH properties across diverse accretion states, radio loudness, host galaxy environments, and viewing geometries.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2026

Dynamics and geometry of the inner sub-parsec-scale jet in 3C 279 observed with the Event Horizon Telescope

The 2021 Event Horizon Telescope observations resolve the innermost jet region of the blazar 3C279 with unprecedented detail. The reconstructed images consistently reveal a compact core elongated nearly orthogonal to the large-scale jet axis. This rarely observed morphology recurs across multiple epochs and from 22-230 GHz and is therefore intrinsic rather than an imaging artifact. Geometric model fitting identifies several components with apparent speeds up to 10c, requiring bulk Lorentz factors greater than 10.3 and constraining viewing angles to extremely small values (smaller than one degree). Rest-frame brightness temperatures are systematically low (between 10^9 and 10^10 K), consistent with optically thin emission at 230 GHz. These results suggest that the jet bends toward the observer on sub-parsec scales, producing strong relativistic beaming. Possible drivers of the observed jet bending and temporal evolution include the jet's interaction with the interstellar medium, kink or Kelvin--Helmholtz instabilities, magnetic reconnection near the horizon, or binary-induced precession. However, the current temporal coverage of VLBI data remains insufficient to distinguish between these mechanisms. Continued multifrequency VLBI monitoring will be essential to constraining the dynamics and geometry of the jet base in 3C279.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2026

Ring Position Angles and Spin in M87* and Sgr A*

Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) images of black holes appear as rings with a brightness asymmetry. Here, we expand on our previous study of the asymmetry magnitude $a_1$ to study the position angle of the peak brightness asymmetry $\mathrm{PA}_1$ in general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic (GRMHD) models. For larger spin magnitudes ($a_{*}>0$ and $a_{*}\lesssim-0.5$), the mean $\mathrm{PA}_1$ falls within $1\sigma$ of the approaching limb of the black hole, regardless of viewing inclination, disk magnetization, or source. By comparing the $(a_1, \mathrm{PA}_1)$ distribution in M87* observations with models, we demonstrate that we can mildly disfavor low-magnitude spins and strongly disfavor all spin vectors that point toward Earth. The alignment of $\mathrm{PA}_1$ relative to the large-scale jet axis may suggest that M87*'s disk does not have a large tilt. By combining $\mathrm{PA}_1$ with the pattern speed measured in optimistic 2026 M87* video conditions, the EHT can constrain whether M87* is prograde or retrograde with $\sim 84\%$ accuracy. In Sgr A*, we show that a detection of $(a_1, \mathrm{PA}_1)$ could constrain the magnitude and direction of the galactic center spin vector. Finally, if future EHT expansions increase the sample of horizon-scale sources, a simple set of observables (ring diameter, asymmetry magnitude, and asymmetry angle) could enable robust constraints on black hole mass, spin, and inclination.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2026

Constraining the jet base emission of M87* with past and future Event Horizon Telescope observations

We investigate the detectability of the jet base of M87* at Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) observing frequencies. Although M87 is known to host a prominent relativistic jet, detecting jet emission close to the black hole at horizon scales remains challenging. Our goal is to determine the minimum jet intensity that can be reliably detected with the recent EHT array configurations. We use synthetic EHT data generated for three array configurations corresponding to the 2021 and 2022 observing campaigns and to a near future EHT campaign. As input models, we employ semi analytic accretion jet models in which the jet emission can be tuned independently of the accretion flow. The synthetic data are reconstructed with regularized maximum likelihood and Bayesian imaging. Jet detectability is assessed through flux density recovery, image fidelity, and uncertainty maps. We find that jet detectability strongly depends on the jet intensity, the array configuration, and imaging methodology. Using our analysis, we determine a lower limit on the jet intensity that can be reliably recovered. The 2022 EHT array configuration represents a significant improvement over earlier arrays, enabling a more robust reconstruction of faint jet features. Our results indicate that the current EHT array is already sensitive to weak jet emission at horizon scales in M87*. The improved short-baseline coverage introduced in 2022 makes faint inner jet features more easily detectable. If the inner jet contributes a significant fraction of the unresolved compact flux, it should become visible in post-2021 observations. On the other hand, if no clear jet signature is found, this would suggest that the horizon-scale jet contributes only a small part of the compact emission. The continued expansion of the EHT will further improve the detection of such jet emission in M87*.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2026

Multifrequency Synthesis via CHIBI: Colorful Hierarchical Interferometric Bayesian Imaging

From magnetized plasma of relativistic jets to dust grains within protoplanetary disks, we study the emission mechanisms of radio sources via their rich spectral structure. Multifrequency Synthesis (MFS) is a technique in which interferometric data at multiple frequencies are imaged simultaneously, resulting in a denser sampling of spatial scales, higher imaging fidelity, and tighter constraints on the source's spectral structure and evolution. We describe a new method of MFS imaging reconstruction in a hierarchical interferometric Bayesian inference framework, CHIBI. The model parametrization is based on the spectral behavior of synchrotron radiation, the emission mechanism dominating the radio emission observed from galactic nuclei. We show results of this method on observations of jet sources from the MOJAVE catalog with the Very Long Baseline Array, and showcase the prospects for MFS imaging of M87* with simulated data from the Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) and future expansions such as the next generation EHT and the Black Hole Explorer. These demonstrations highlight the benefit of MFS to reconstruct higher-fidelity images and spectral index maps, producing scientifically richer results in a statistically grounded framework, implemented in Comrade.jl.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2026

Measuring the Black Hole and Accretion Parameters of Sagittarius A* from EHT Observations using a Semi-Analytic Model

The Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) Collaboration produced the first image of the apparent shadow of the central black hole of Sagittarius\,A$^*$ (\sgra). \sgra source structure varies significantly on timescales shorter than the duration of an observation, preventing improved data coverage through Earth rotation aperture synthesis. This rapid variability provides the opportunity to quantify intrinsic variability and separate time-variable emission features from stable signatures of strong gravity and the accretion environment. To infer the properties \sgra and its surrounding accretion flow, we perform Bayesian inference on a series of EHT data segments (``snapshots''). We directly fit parameters of a semi-analytic emission model jointly with complex station gains to snapshot visibilities, then extract estimates of the time-averaged, persistent source structure and temporal variability by stacking snapshots in a Bayesian hierarchical model. This approach successfully reproduces parameters of General Relativistic Magnetohydrodynamics simulations using synthetic EHT observations. Even with physically motivated assumptions about the \sgra environment, black hole spin and magnetic field parameters are poorly constrained by 2017 EHT observations. Our inference constrains other parameters, favoring a nearly face-on observer inclination ($\theta_{\rm o} = 9.2\degree \pm 3.6 \degree \pm_{\rm v} 11.6\degree$), an emission peak near the horizon ($R_{\rm peak} = 4.9 \pm 0.1 \pm_{\rm v} 0.5\,GM/c^2$), near-vertical projected spin position angle ($p.a. = 7.3\degree \pm 7.08 \degree \pm_{\rm v} 43.5\degree$ counterclockwise from vertical), and dominant emission $43.4\degree \pm 2.0\degree \pm_{\rm v} 5.9\degree$ above the equatorial plane, where we separate average structure uncertainty ($\pm$) from the impacts of temporal variability and model misspecification ($\pm_{\rm v}$).

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2026

Locating the missing large-scale emission in the jet of M87* with short EHT baselines

In Very-Long Baseline Interferometric arrays, nearly co-located stations probe the largest scales and typically cannot resolve the observed source. In the absence of large-scale structure, closure phases constructed with these stations are zero and, since they are independent of station-based errors, they can be used to probe data issues. Here, we show with an expansion about co-located stations, how these trivial closure phases become non-zero with brightness distribution on smaller scales than their short baseline would suggest. When applied to sources that are made up of a bright compact and large-scale diffuse component, the trivial closure phases directly measure the centroid relative to the compact source and higher-order image moments. We present a technique to measure these image moments with minimal model assumptions and validate it on synthetic Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) data. We then apply this technique to 2017 and 2018 EHT observations of M87* and find a weak preference for extended emission in the direction of the large-scale jet. We also apply it to 2021 EHT data and measure the source centroid about 1 mas northwest of the compact ring, consistent with the jet observed at lower frequencies.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2026

Ring Asymmetry and Spin in M87*

Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) images of the supermassive black hole M87* depict an asymmetric ring of emission. General relativistic magnetohydrodynamic (GRMHD) models of M87* and its accretion disk predict that the amplitude and location of the ring's peak brightness asymmetry should fluctuate due to turbulence in the source plasma. We compare the observed distribution of brightness asymmetry amplitudes to the simulated distribution in GRMHD models, across varying black hole spin $a_{*}$. We show that, for strongly magnetized (MAD) models, three epochs of EHT data marginally disfavor $|a_{*}| \lesssim 0.2$. This is consistent with the Blandford-Znajek model for M87's jet, which predicts that M87* should have nonzero spin. We show quantitatively how future observations could improve spin constraints, and discuss how improved spin constraints could distinguish between differing jet-launching mechanisms and black hole growth scenarios.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2025

Probing jet base emission of M87* with the 2021 Event Horizon Telescope observations

We investigate the presence and spatial characteristics of the jet base emission in M87* at 230 GHz, enabled by the enhanced uv coverage in the 2021 Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) observations. The addition of the 12-m Kitt Peak Telescope and NOEMA provides two key intermediate-length baselines to SMT and the IRAM 30-m, giving sensitivity to emission structures at scales of $\sim250~\mu$as and $\sim2500~\mu$as (0.02 pc and 0.2 pc). Without these baselines, earlier EHT observations lacked the capability to constrain emission on large scales, where a "missing flux" of order $\sim1$ Jy is expected. To probe these scales, we analyzed closure phases, robust against station-based gain errors, and modeled the jet base emission using a simple Gaussian offset from the compact ring emission at separations $>100~\mu$as. Our analysis reveals a Gaussian feature centered at ($\Delta$RA $\approx320~\mu$as, $\Delta$Dec $\approx60~\mu$as), a projected separation of $\approx5500$ AU, with a flux density of only $\sim60$ mJy, implying that most of the missing flux in previous studies must arise from larger scales. Brighter emission at these scales is ruled out, and the data do not favor more complex models. This component aligns with the inferred direction of the large-scale jet and is consistent with emission from the jet base. While our findings indicate detectable jet base emission at 230 GHz, coverage from only two intermediate baselines limits reconstruction of its morphology. We therefore treat the recovered Gaussian as an upper limit on the jet base flux density. Future EHT observations with expanded intermediate-baseline coverage will be essential to constrain the structure and nature of this component.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2025

Hierarchical Interferometric Bayesian Imaging

Very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) achieves the highest angular resolution in astronomy. VLBI measures corrupted Fourier components, known as visibilities. Reconstructing on-sky images from these visibilities is a challenging inverse problem, particularly for sparse arrays such as the Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) and the Very Long Baseline Array (VLBA), where incomplete sampling and severe calibration errors introduce significant uncertainty in the image. To help guide convergence and control the uncertainty in image reconstructions, regularization on the space of images is utilized, such as enforcing smoothness or similarity to a fiducial image. Coupled with this regularization is the introduction of a new set of parameters that modulate its strength. We present a hierarchical Bayesian imaging approach (Hierarchical Interferometric Bayesian Imaging, HIBI) that enables the quantification of uncertainty for al parameters. Incorporating instrumental effects within HIBI is straightforward, allowing for simultaneous imaging and calibration of data. To showcase HIBI's effectiveness and flexibility, we build a simple imaging model based on Markov random fields and demonstrate how different physical components can be included, e.g., black hole shadow size, and their uncertainties can be inferred. For example, while the original EHT publications were unable to constrain the ring width of M87*, HIBI measures a width of $9.3\pm 1.3\,\mu{\rm as}$. We apply HIBI to image and calibrate EHT synthetic data, real EHT observations of M87*, and multifrequency observations of \oj287. Across these tests, HIBI accurately recovers a wide variety of image structures and quantifies their uncertainties. HIBI is publicly available in the Comrade.jl VLBI software repository.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2025

Modeling atmospheric phase corruptions in high-frequency VLBI using Gaussian processes

Using very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) observations at (sub)millimeter wavelengths, the Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) currently achieves the finest angular resolution of any astronomical facility, necessary for imaging the horizon-scale structure around supermassive black holes. A significant calibration challenge for high-frequency VLBI stems from rapid variations in the atmospheric water vapor content above each telescope in the array, which induce corresponding fluctuations in the phase of the correlated signal that limit the coherent integration time and thus the achievable sensitivity. In this paper, we introduce a model that describes station-based phase corruptions jointly with a parameterization for the source structure. We adopt a Gaussian Process (GP) prescription for the time evolution of these phase corruptions, which provides sufficient flexibility to capture even highly erratic phase behavior. The use of GPs permits the application of a Kalman filtering algorithm for numerical marginalization of these phase corruptions, which permits efficient exploration of the remaining parameter space. Our model also removes the need to specify an arbitrary ``reference station'' during calibration, instead establishing a global phase zeropoint by enforcing the GPs at all stations to have fixed mean and finite variance. We validate our method using a real EHT observation of the blazar 3C 279, demonstrating that our approach yields calibration solutions that are consistent with those determined by the EHT Collaboration. The model presented here can be straightforwardly extended to incorporate frequency-dependent phase behavior, such as is relevant for the frequency phase transfer calibration technique.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2025

Origin of the ring ellipticity in the black hole images of M87*

We investigate the origin of the elliptical ring structure observed in the images of the supermassive black hole M87*, aiming to disentangle contributions from gravitational, astrophysical, and imaging effects. Leveraging the enhanced capabilities of the Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) 2018 array, including improved $(u,v)$-coverage from the Greenland Telescope, we measure the ring's ellipticity using five independent imaging methods, obtaining a consistent average value of $\tau = 0.08_{-0.02}^{+0.03}$ with a position angle $\xi = 50.1_{-7.6}^{+6.2}$ degrees. To interpret this measurement, we compare against General Relativistic Magnetohydrodynamic (GRMHD) simulations spanning a wide range of physical parameters including thermal or non-thermal electron distribution function, spins, and ion-to-electron temperature ratios in both low and high-density regions. We find no statistically significant correlation between spin and ellipticity in GRMHD images. Instead, we identify a correlation between ellipticity and the fraction of non-ring emission, particularly in non-thermal models and models with higher jet emission. These results indicate that the ellipticity measured from the \m87 emission structure is consistent with that expected from simulations of turbulent accretion flows around black holes, where it is dominated by astrophysical effects rather than gravitational ones. Future high-resolution imaging, including space very long baseline interferometry and long-term monitoring, will be essential to isolate gravitational signatures from astrophysical effects.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2025

Assessing the Role of Intrinsic Variability in Black Hole Parameter Inference using Multi-Epoch EHT Data

Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) observations of M87* provide a means of constraining parameters of both the black hole and its surrounding plasma. However, intrinsic variability of the emitting material introduces a major source of systematic uncertainty, complicating parameter inference. The precise origin and structure of this variability remain uncertain, and previous studies have largely relied on general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic (GRMHD) simulations to estimate its effects. Here, we fit a semi-analytic, dual-cone model of the emitting plasma to multiple years of EHT observations to empirically assess the impact of intrinsic variability and improved array coverage on key measurements including the black hole mass-to-distance ratio, spin, and viewing inclination. Despite substantial differences in the images of the two epochs, we find that the inferred mass-to-distance ratio remains stable and mutually consistent. The black hole spin is unconstrained for both observations, despite the improved baseline coverage in 2018. The inferred position angle and inclination of the black hole spin axis are discrepant between the two years, suggesting that variability and model misspecification contribute significantly to the total error budget for these quantities. Our findings highlight both the promise and challenges of multi-epoch EHT observations: while they can refine parameter constraints, they also reveal the limitations of simple parametric models in capturing the full complexity of the source. Our analysis -- the first to fit semi-analytic emission models to 2018 EHT observations -- underscores the importance of systematic uncertainty quantification from intrinsic variability in future high-resolution imaging studies of black hole environments and the role of repeated observations in quantifying these uncertainties.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2024

Black Holes Inside and Out 2024: visions for the future of black hole physics

The gravitational physics landscape is evolving rapidly, driven by our ability to study strong-field regions, in particular black holes. Black Holes Inside and Out gathered world experts to discuss the status of the field and prospects ahead. We hope that the ideas and perspectives are a source of inspiration. Structure: Black Hole Evaporation - 50 Years by William Unruh The Stability Problem for Extremal Black Holes by Mihalis Dafermos The Entropy of Black Holes by Robert M. Wald The Non-linear Regime of Gravity by Luis Lehner Black Holes Galore in D > 4 by Roberto Emparan Same as Ever: Looking for (In)variants in the Black Holes Landscape by Carlos A. R. Herdeiro Black Holes, Cauchy Horizons, and Mass Inflation by Matt Visser The Backreaction Problem for Black Holes in Semiclassical Gravity by Adrian del Rio Black Holes Beyond General Relativity by Enrico Barausse and Jutta Kunz Black Holes as Laboratories: Searching for Ultralight Fields by Richard Brito Primordial Black Holes from Inflation by Misao Sasaki Tests of General Relativity with Future Detectors by Emanuele Berti Black Holes as Laboratories: Tests of General Relativity by Ruth Gregory and Samaya Nissanke Simulating Black Hole Imposters by Frans Pretorius Black Hole Spectroscopy: Status Report by Gregorio Carullo VLBI as a Precision Strong Gravity Instrument by Paul Tiede Testing the nature of compact objects and the black hole paradigm by Mariafelicia De Laurentis and Paolo Pani Some Thoughts about Black Holes in Asymptotic Safety by Alessia Platania Black Hole Evaporation in Loop Quantum Gravity by Abhay Ashtekar How the Black Hole Puzzles are Resolved in String Theory by Samir D. Mathur Quantum Black Holes: From Regularization to Information Paradoxes by Niayesh Afshordi and Stefano Liberati

gr-qc↗

arXiv2024

Selective Dynamical Imaging of Interferometric Data

Recent developments in very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) have made it possible for the Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) to resolve the innermost accretion flows of the largest supermassive black holes on the sky. The sparse nature of the EHT's $(u, v)$-coverage presents a challenge when attempting to resolve highly time-variable sources. We demonstrate that the changing (u, v)-coverage of the EHT can contain regions of time over the course of a single observation that facilitate dynamical imaging. These optimal time regions typically have projected baseline distributions that are approximately angularly isotropic and radially homogeneous. We derive a metric of coverage quality based on baseline isotropy and density that is capable of ranking array configurations by their ability to produce accurate dynamical reconstructions. We compare this metric to existing metrics in the literature and investigate their utility by performing dynamical reconstructions on synthetic data from simulated EHT observations of sources with simple orbital variability. We then use these results to make recommendations for imaging the 2017 EHT Sgr A* data set.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2024

Variational Image Feature Extraction for the Event Horizon Telescope

Imaging algorithms form powerful analysis tools for VLBI data analysis. However, these tools cannot measure certain image features (e.g., ring diameter) by their non-parametric nature. This is unfortunate since these image features are often related to astrophysically relevant quantities such as black hole mass. This paper details a new general image feature extraction technique that applies to a wide variety of VLBI image reconstructions called variational image domain analysis. Unlike previous tools, variational image domain analysis can be applied to any image reconstruction regardless of its structure. To demonstrate its flexibility, we analyze thousands of reconstructions from previous EHT synthetic datasets and recover image features such as diameter, orientation, and asymmetry. By measuring these features, VIDA can help extract astrophysically relevant quantities such as the mass and orientation of M 87.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2024

The Black Hole Explorer: Photon Ring Science, Detection and Shape Measurement

General relativity predicts that black hole images ought to display a bright, thin (and as-of-yet-unresolved) ring. This "photon ring" is produced by photons that explore the strong gravity of the black hole, flowing along trajectories that experience extreme light bending within a few Schwarzschild radii of the horizon before escaping. The shape of the photon ring is largely insensitive to the precise details of the emission from the astronomical source surrounding the black hole and therefore provides a direct probe of the Kerr geometry and its parameters. The Black Hole Explorer (BHEX) is a proposed space-based experiment targeting the supermassive black holes M87* and Sgr A* with radio-interferometric observations at frequencies of 100 GHz through 300 GHz and from an orbital distance of ~30,000 km. This design will enable measurements of the photon rings around both M87* and Sgr A*, confirming the Kerr nature of these sources and delivering sharp estimates of their masses and spins.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2024

The Black Hole Explorer: Motivation and Vision

We present the Black Hole Explorer (BHEX), a mission that will produce the sharpest images in the history of astronomy by extending submillimeter Very-Long-Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) to space. BHEX will discover and measure the bright and narrow "photon ring" that is predicted to exist in images of black holes, produced from light that has orbited the black hole before escaping. This discovery will expose universal features of a black hole's spacetime that are distinct from the complex astrophysics of the emitting plasma, allowing the first direct measurements of a supermassive black hole's spin. In addition to studying the properties of the nearby supermassive black holes M87* and Sgr A*, BHEX will measure the properties of dozens of additional supermassive black holes, providing crucial insights into the processes that drive their creation and growth. BHEX will also connect these supermassive black holes to their relativistic jets, elucidating the power source for the brightest and most efficient engines in the universe. BHEX will address fundamental open questions in the physics and astrophysics of black holes that cannot be answered without submillimeter space VLBI. The mission is enabled by recent technological breakthroughs, including the development of ultra-high-speed downlink using laser communications, and it leverages billions of dollars of existing ground infrastructure. We present the motivation for BHEX, its science goals and associated requirements, and the pathway to launch within the next decade.

astro-ph.IM↗