arXiv subjects

Paul Tiede

Publications and source records attributed to Paul Tiede.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2024

The Black Hole Explorer: Motivation and Vision

We present the Black Hole Explorer (BHEX), a mission that will produce the sharpest images in the history of astronomy by extending submillimeter Very-Long-Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) to space. BHEX will discover and measure the bright and narrow "photon ring" that is predicted to exist in images of black holes, produced from light that has orbited the black hole before escaping. This discovery will expose universal features of a black hole's spacetime that are distinct from the complex astrophysics of the emitting plasma, allowing the first direct measurements of a supermassive black hole's spin. In addition to studying the properties of the nearby supermassive black holes M87* and Sgr A*, BHEX will measure the properties of dozens of additional supermassive black holes, providing crucial insights into the processes that drive their creation and growth. BHEX will also connect these supermassive black holes to their relativistic jets, elucidating the power source for the brightest and most efficient engines in the universe. BHEX will address fundamental open questions in the physics and astrophysics of black holes that cannot be answered without submillimeter space VLBI. The mission is enabled by recent technological breakthroughs, including the development of ultra-high-speed downlink using laser communications, and it leverages billions of dollars of existing ground infrastructure. We present the motivation for BHEX, its science goals and associated requirements, and the pathway to launch within the next decade.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2024

Prospects of Detecting a Jet in Sagittarius A* with VLBI

Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) images of the horizon-scale emission around the Galactic Center supermassive black hole Sagittarius A* (Sgr A*) favor accretion flow models with a jet component. However, this jet has not been conclusively detected. Using the "best-bet" models of Sgr A* from the EHT collaboration, we assess whether this non-detection is expected for current facilities and explore the prospects of detecting a jet with VLBI at four frequencies: 86, 115, 230, and 345 GHz. We produce synthetic image reconstructions for current and next-generation VLBI arrays at these frequencies that include the effects of interstellar scattering, optical depth, and time variability. We find that no existing VLBI arrays are expected to detect the jet in these best-bet models, consistent with observations to-date. We show that next-generation VLBI arrays at 86 and 115 GHz -- in particular, the EHT after upgrades through the ngEHT program and the ngVLA -- successfully capture the jet in our tests due to improvements in instrument sensitivity and (u,v) coverage at spatial scales critical to jet detection. These results highlight the potential of enhanced VLBI capabilities in the coming decade to reveal the crucial properties of Sgr A* and its interaction with the Galactic Center environment.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2024

Bayesian Black Hole Photogrammetry

We propose a simple, analytic dual-cone accretion model for horizon scale images of the cores of Low-Luminosity Active Galactic Nuclei (LLAGN), including those observed by the Event Horizon Telescope (EHT). Our underlying model is of synchrotron emission from an axisymmetric, magnetized plasma, which is constrained to flow within two oppositely oriented cones that are aligned with the black hole's spin axis. We show that this model can accurately reproduce images for a variety of time-averaged general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic (GRMHD) simulations, that it accurately recovers both the black hole and emission parameters from these simulations, and that it is sufficiently efficient to be used to measure these parameters in a Bayesian inference framework with radio interferometric data. We show that non-trivial topologies in the source image can result in non-trivial multi-modal solutions when applied to observations from a sparse array, such as the EHT 2017 observations of M87${}^*$. The presence of these degeneracies underscores the importance of employing Bayesian techniques that adequately sample the posterior space for the interpretation of EHT measurements. We fit our model to the EHT observations of M87${}^*$ and find a 95% Highest Posterior Density Interval (HPDI) for the mass-to-distance ratio of $θ_g\in(2.84,3.75)\,μ{\rm as}$, and give an inclination of $θ_{\rm o}\in(11^\circ,24^\circ)$. These new measurements are consistent with mass measurements from the EHT and stellar dynamical estimates (e.g., Gebhardt et al. 2011; EHTC et al. 2019a,b; Liepold et al. 2023), and with the spin axis inclination inferred from properties of the M87${}^*$ jet (e.g., Walker et al. 2018).

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2024

Atmospheric limitations for high-frequency ground-based VLBI

Very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) provides the highest-resolution images in astronomy. The sharpest resolution is nominally achieved at the highest frequencies, but as the observing frequency increases so too does the atmospheric contribution to the system noise, degrading the sensitivity of the array and hampering detection. In this paper, we explore the limits of high-frequency VLBI observations using ngehtsim, a new tool for generating realistic synthetic data. ngehtsim uses detailed historical atmospheric models to simulate observing conditions, and it employs heuristic visibility detection criteria that emulate single- and multi-frequency VLBI calibration strategies. We demonstrate the fidelity of ngehtsim's predictions using a comparison with existing 230 GHz data taken by the Event Horizon Telescope (EHT), and we simulate the expected performance of EHT observations at 345 GHz. Though the EHT achieves a nearly 100% detection rate at 230 GHz, our simulations indicate that it should expect substantially poorer performance at 345 GHz; in particular, observations of M87 at 345 GHz are predicted to achieve detection rates of $\lesssim$20% that may preclude imaging. Increasing the array sensitivity through wider bandwidths and/or longer integration times -- as enabled through, e.g., the simultaneous multi-frequency upgrades envisioned for the next-generation EHT -- can improve the 345 GHz prospects and yield detection levels that are comparable to those at 230 GHz. M87 and Sgr A* observations carried out in the atmospheric window around 460 GHz could expect to regularly achieve multiple detections on long baselines, but analogous observations at 690 and 875 GHz consistently obtain almost no detections at all.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2023

Fundamental Physics Opportunities with the Next-Generation Event Horizon Telescope

The Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) Collaboration recently published the first images of the supermassive black holes in the cores of the Messier 87 and Milky Way galaxies. These observations have provided a new means to study supermassive black holes and probe physical processes occurring in the strong-field regime. We review the prospects of future observations and theoretical studies of supermassive black hole systems with the next-generation Event Horizon Telescope (ngEHT), which will greatly enhance the capabilities of the existing EHT array. These enhancements will open up several previously inaccessible avenues of investigation, thereby providing important new insights into the properties of supermassive black holes and their environments. This review describes the current state of knowledge for five key science cases, summarising the unique challenges and opportunities for fundamental physics investigations that the ngEHT will enable.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2023

Pigeons.jl: Distributed Sampling From Intractable Distributions

We introduce a software package, Pigeons.jl, that provides a way to leverage distributed computation to obtain samples from complicated probability distributions, such as multimodal posteriors arising in Bayesian inference and high-dimensional distributions in statistical mechanics. Pigeons.jl provides simple APIs to perform such computations single-threaded, multi-threaded, and/or distributed over thousands of MPI-communicating machines. In addition, Pigeons.jl guarantees a property that we call strong parallelism invariance: the output for a given seed is identical irrespective of the number of threads and processes, which is crucial for scientific reproducibility and software validation. We describe the key features of Pigeons.jl and the approach taken to implement a distributed and randomized algorithm that satisfies strong parallelism invariance.

stat.CO↗

arXiv2023

Reference Array and Design Consideration for the next-generation Event Horizon Telescope

We describe the process to design, architect, and implement a transformative enhancement of the Event Horizon Telescope (ngEHT). This program - the next-generation Event Horizon Telescope (ngEHT) - will form a networked global array of radio dishes capable of making high-fidelity real-time movies of supermassive black holes (SMBH) and their emanating jets. This builds upon the EHT principally by deploying additional modest-diameter dishes to optimized geographic locations to enhance the current global mm/submm wavelength Very Long Baseline Interferometric (VLBI) array, which has, to date, utilized mostly pre-existing radio telescopes. The ngEHT program further focuses on observing at three frequencies simultaneously for increased sensitivity and Fourier spatial frequency coverage. Here, the concept, science goals, design considerations, station siting and instrument prototyping are discussed, and a preliminary reference array to be implemented in phases is described.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2023

The EB-correlation in Resolved Polarized Images: Connections to Astrophysics of Black Holes

We present an in-depth analysis of a newly proposed correlation function in visibility space, between the E and B modes of the linear polarization, hereafter the EB-correlation, for a set of time-averaged GRMHD simulations compared with the phase map from different semi-analytic models as well as the Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) 2017 data for M87* source. We demonstrate that the phase map of the time-averaged EB-correlation contains novel information that might be linked to the BH spin, accretion state and the electron temperature. A detailed comparison with a semi-analytic approach with different azimuthal expansion modes shows that to recover the morphology of the real/imaginary part of the correlation function and its phase, we require higher orders of these azimuthal modes. To extract the phase features, we propose to use the Zernike polynomial reconstruction developing an empirical metric to break degeneracies between models with different BH spins that are qualitatively similar. We use a set of different geometrical ring models with various magnetic and velocity field morphologies and show that both the image space and visibility based EB-correlation morphologies in MAD simulations can be explained with simple fluid and magnetic field geometries as used in ring models. SANEs by contrast are harder to model, demonstrating that the simple fluid and magnetic field geometries of ring models are not sufficient to describe them owing to higher Faraday Rotation depths. A qualitative comparison with the EHT data demonstrates that some of the features in the phase of EB-correlation might be well explained by the current models for BH spins as well as electron temperatures, while others may require a larger theoretical surveys.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2023

Key Science Goals for the Next-Generation Event Horizon Telescope

The Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) has led to the first images of a supermassive black hole, revealing the central compact objects in the elliptical galaxy M87 and the Milky Way. Proposed upgrades to this array through the next-generation EHT (ngEHT) program would sharply improve the angular resolution, dynamic range, and temporal coverage of the existing EHT observations. These improvements will uniquely enable a wealth of transformative new discoveries related to black hole science, extending from event-horizon-scale studies of strong gravity to studies of explosive transients to the cosmological growth and influence of supermassive black holes. Here, we present the key science goals for the ngEHT and their associated instrument requirements, both of which have been formulated through a multi-year international effort involving hundreds of scientists worldwide.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2023

Unraveling Twisty Linear Polarization Morphologies in Black Hole Images

We investigate general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic simulations (GRMHD) to determine the physical origin of the twisty patterns of linear polarization seen in spatially resolved black hole images and explain their morphological dependence on black hole spin. By characterising the observed emission with a simple analytic ring model, we find that the twisty morphology is determined by the magnetic field structure in the emitting region. Moreover, the dependence of this twisty pattern on spin can be attributed to changes in the magnetic field geometry that occur due to the frame dragging. By studying an analytic ring model, we find that the roles of Doppler boosting and lensing are subdominant. Faraday rotation may cause a systematic shift in the linear polarization pattern, but we find that its impact is subdominant for models with strong magnetic fields and modest ion-to-electron temperature ratios. Models with weaker magnetic fields are much more strongly affected by Faraday rotation and have more complicated emission geometries than can be captured by a ring model. However, these models are currently disfavoured by the recent EHT observations of M87*. Our results suggest that linear polarization maps can provide a probe of the underlying magnetic field structure around a black hole, which may then be usable to indirectly infer black hole spins. The generality of these results should be tested with alternative codes, initial conditions, and plasma physics prescriptions.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2023

Accretion Flow Morphology in Numerical Simulations of Black Holes from the ngEHT Model Library: The Impact of Radiation Physics

In the past few years, the Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) has provided the first-ever event horizon-scale images of the supermassive black holes (BHs) (M87*) and Sagittarius A$^*$ (Sgr A*). The next-generation EHT project is an extension of the EHT array that promises larger angular resolution and higher sensitivity to the dim, extended flux around the central ring-like structure, possibly connecting the accretion flow and the jet. The ngEHT Analysis Challenges aim to understand the science extractability from synthetic images and movies to inform the ngEHT array design and analysis algorithm development. In this work, we compare the accretion flow structure and dynamics in numerical fluid simulations that specifically target M87* and Sgr A*, and were used to construct the source models in the challenge set. We consider (1) a steady-state axisymmetric radiatively inefficient accretion flow model with a time-dependent shearing hotspot, (2) two time-dependent single fluid general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic (GRMHD) simulations from the H-AMR code, (3) a two-temperature GRMHD simulation from the BHAC code, and (4) a two-temperature radiative GRMHD simulation from the KORAL code. We find that the different models exhibit remarkably similar temporal and spatial properties, except for the electron temperature, since radiative losses substantially cool down electrons near the BH and the jet sheath, signaling the importance of radiative cooling even for slowly accreting BHs such as M87*. We restrict ourselves to standard torus accretion flows, and leave larger explorations of alternate accretion models to future work.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2022

The ngEHT Analysis Challenges

The next-generation Event Horizon Telescope (ngEHT) will be a significant enhancement of the Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) array, with $\sim 10$ new antennas and instrumental upgrades of existing antennas. The increased $uv$-coverage, sensitivity, and frequency coverage allow a wide range of new science opportunities to be explored. The ngEHT Analysis Challenges have been launched to inform development of the ngEHT array design, science objectives, and analysis pathways. For each challenge, synthetic EHT and ngEHT datasets are generated from theoretical source models and released to the challenge participants, who analyze the datasets using image reconstruction and other methods. The submitted analysis results are evaluated with quantitative metrics. In this work, we report on the first two ngEHT Analysis Challenges. These have focused on static and dynamical models of M87* and Sgr A*, and shown that high-quality movies of the extended jet structure of M87* and near-horizon hourly timescale variability of Sgr A* can be reconstructed by the reference ngEHT array in realistic observing conditions, using current analysis algorithms. We identify areas where there is still room for improvement of these algorithms and analysis strategies. Other science cases and arrays will be explored in future challenges.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2022

Tracing the hot spot motion using the next generation Event Horizon Telescope (ngEHT)

We propose to trace the dynamical motion of a shearing hot spot near the SgrA* source through a dynamical image reconstruction algorithm, StarWarps. Such a hot spot may form as the exhaust of magnetic reconnection in a current sheet near the black hole horizon. A hot spot that is ejected from the current sheet into an orbit in the accretion disk may shear and diffuse due to instabilities at its boundary during its orbit, resulting in a distinct signature. We subdivide the motion to two distinct phases; the first phase refers to the appearance of the hot spot modelled as a bright blob, followed by a subsequent shearing phase simulated as a stretched ellipse. We employ different observational arrays, including EHT(2017,2022) and the next generation event horizon telescope (ngEHTp1, ngEHT) arrays, in which few new additional sites are added to the observational array. We make dynamical image reconstructions for each of these arrays. Subsequently, we infer the hot spot phase in the first phase followed by the axes ratio and the ellipse area in the second phase. We focus on the direct observability of the orbiting hot spot in the sub-mm wavelength. Our analysis demonstrates that newly added dishes may easily trace the first phase as well as part of the second phase, before the flux is reduced substantially. The algorithm used in this work can be extended to any other types of the dynamical motion. Consequently, we conclude that the ngEHT is a key to directly observe the dynamical motions near variable sources, such as SgrA*.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2022

The ngEHT's Role in Measuring Supermassive Black Hole Spins

While supermassive black hole masses have been cataloged across cosmic time, only a few dozen of them have robust spin measurements. By extending and improving the existing Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) array, the next-generation Event Horizon Telescope (ngEHT) will enable multifrequency, polarimetric movies on event horizon scales, which will place new constraints on the space-time and accretion flow. By combining this information, it is anticipated that the ngEHT may be able to measure tens of supermassive black hole masses and spins. In this white paper, we discuss existing spin measurements and many proposed techniques with which the ngEHT could potentially measure spins of target supermassive black holes. Spins measured by the ngEHT would represent a completely new sample of sources that, unlike pre-existing samples, would not be biased towards objects with high accretion rates. Such a sample would provide new insights into the accretion, feedback, and cosmic assembly of supermassive black holes.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2022

Measuring Photon Rings with the ngEHT

General relativity predicts that images of optically thin accretion flows around black holes should generically have a ``photon ring,'' composed of a series of increasingly sharp subrings that correspond to increasingly strongly lensed emission near the black hole. Because the effects of lensing are determined by the spacetime curvature, the photon ring provides a pathway to precise measurements of the black hole properties and tests of the Kerr metric. We explore the prospects for detecting and measuring the photon ring using very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) with the Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) and the next generation EHT (ngEHT). We present a series of tests using idealized self-fits to simple geometrical models and show that the EHT observations in 2017 and 2022 lack the angular resolution and sensitivity to detect the photon ring, while the improved coverage and angular resolution of ngEHT at 230 GHz and 345 GHz is sufficient for these models. We then analyze detection prospects using more realistic images from general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic simulations by applying ``hybrid imaging,'' which simultaneously models two components: a flexible raster image (to capture the direct emission) and a ring component. Using the Bayesian VLBI modeling package \comrade, we show that the results of hybrid imaging must be interpreted with extreme caution for both photon ring detection and measurement -- hybrid imaging readily produces false positives for a photon ring, and its ring measurements do not directly correspond to the properties of the photon ring.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2022

Measuring the Ellipticity of M 87* Images

The Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) images of the supermassive black hole at the center of the galaxy M 87 provided the first image of the accretion environment on horizon scales. General relativity predicts that the image of the shadow should be nearly circular, given the inclination angle of the black hole M 87*. A robust detection of ellipticity in the image reconstructions of M 87* could signal new gravitational physics on horizon scales. Here we analyze whether the imaging parameters used in EHT analyses are sensitive to ring ellipticity and measure the constraints on the ellipticity of M 87*. We find that the top set is unable to recover ellipticity. Even for simple geometric models, the true ellipticity is biased low, preferring circular rings. Therefore, to place a constraint on the ellipticity of M 87*, we measure the ellipticity of 550 simulated data sets of GRMHD simulations. We find that images with intrinsic axis ratios of 2:1 are consistent with the ellipticity seen from the EHT image reconstructions.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2022

Bayesian Accretion Modeling: Axisymmetric Equatorial Emission in the Kerr Spacetime

The Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) has produced images of two supermassive black holes, Messier~87* (M 87*) and Sagittarius~A* (Sgr A*). The EHT collaboration used these images to indirectly constrain black hole parameters by calibrating measurements of the sky-plane emission morphology to images of general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic (GRMHD) simulations. Here, we develop a model for directly constraining the black hole mass, spin, and inclination through signatures of lensing, redshift, and frame dragging, while simultaneously marginalizing over the unknown accretion and emission properties. By assuming optically thin, axisymmetric, equatorial emission near the black hole, our model gains orders of magnitude in speed over similar approaches that require radiative transfer. Using 2017 EHT M 87* baseline coverage, we use fits of the model to itself to show that the data are insufficient to demonstrate existence of the photon ring. We then survey time-averaged GRMHD simulations fitting EHT-like data, and find that our model is best-suited to fitting magnetically arrested disks, which are the favored class of simulations for both M 87* and Sgr A*. For these simulations, the best-fit model parameters are within ${\sim}10\%$ of the true mass and within ${\sim}10^\circ$ for inclination. With 2017 EHT coverage and 1\% fractional uncertainty on amplitudes, spin is unconstrained. Accurate inference of spin axis position angle depends strongly on spin and electron temperature. Our results show the promise of directly constraining black hole spacetimes with interferometric data, but they also show that nearly identical images permit large differences in black hole properties, highlighting degeneracies between the plasma properties, spacetime, and most crucially, the unknown emission geometry when studying lensed accretion flow images at a single frequency.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2022

Hybrid Very Long Baseline Interferometry Imaging and Modeling with Themis

Generating images from very long baseline interferometric observations poses a difficult, and generally not unique, inversion problem. This problem is simplified by the introduction of constraints, some generic (e.g., positivity of the intensity) and others motivated by physical considerations (e.g., smoothness, instrument resolution). It is further complicated by the need to simultaneously address instrumental systematic uncertainties and sparse coverage in the u-v plane. We report a new Bayesian image reconstruction technique in the parameter estimation framework Themis that has been developed for the Event Horizon Telescope. This has two key features: first, the full Bayesian treatment of the image reconstruction makes it possible to generate a full posterior for the images, permitting a rigorous and quantitative investigation into the statistical significance of image features. Second, it is possible to seamlessly incorporate directly modeled features simultaneously with image reconstruction. We demonstrate this second capability by incorporating a narrow, slashed ring in reconstructions of simulated M87 data in an attempt to detect and characterize the photon ring. We show that it is possible to obtain high-fidelity photon ring sizes, enabling mass measurements with accuracies of 2%-5% that are essentially insensitive to astrophysical uncertainties, and creating opportunities for precision tests of general relativity.

astro-ph.IM↗