arXiv subjects

Paul Wiegert

Publications and source records attributed to Paul Wiegert.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2019

Estimating trajectories of meteors: an observational Monte Carlo approach -- II. Results

In the first paper of this series we examined existing methods of optical meteor trajectory estimation and developed a novel method which simultaneously uses both the geometry and the dynamics of meteors to constrain their trajectories. We also developed a simulator which uses an ablation model to generate realistic synthetic meteor trajectories which we use to test meteor trajectory solvers. In this second paper, we perform simulation validation to estimate radiant and velocity accuracy which may be achieved by various meteor observation systems as applied to several meteor showers. For low-resolution all-sky systems, where the meteor deceleration is generally not measurable, the multi-parameter fit method assuming a constant velocity better reproduces the radiant and speed of synthetic meteors. For moderate field of view systems, our novel method performs the best at all convergence angles, while multi-parameter fit methods generally produce larger speed errors. For high-resolution, narrow field of view systems, we find our new method of trajectory estimation reproduces radiant and speed more accurately than all other methods tested. The ablation properties of meteoroids are commonly found to be the limiting factor in velocity accuracy. We show that the true radiant dispersion of meteor showers can be reliably measured with moderate field of view (or more precise) systems provided appropriate methods of meteor trajectory estimation are employed. Finally, we compare estimated and real angular radiant uncertainty and show that for the solvers tested the real radiant error is on average underestimated by a factor of two.

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arXiv2019

The Orbit and Size-Frequency Distribution of Long Period Comets Observed by Pan-STARRS1

We introduce a new technique to estimate the comet nuclear size frequency distribution (SFD) that combines a cometary activity model with a survey simulation and apply it to 150 long period comets (LPC) detected by the Pan-STARRS1 near-Earth object survey. The debiased LPC size-frequency distribution is in agreement with previous estimates for large comets with nuclear diameter $>\sim 1$~km but we measure a significant drop in the SFD slope for small objects with diameters $<1$~km and approaching only $100$~m diameter. Large objects have a slope $α_{big} = 0.72 \pm 0.09 (stat.) \pm 0.15 (sys.)$ while small objects behave as $α_{small} = 0.07 \pm 0.03 (stat.) \pm 0.09 (sys.)$ where the SFD is $\propto 10^{αH_N}$ and $H_N$ represents the cometary nuclear absolute magnitude. The total number of LPCs that are $>1$~km diameter and have perihelia $q<10$~au is $0.46 \pm 0.15 \times 10^9$ while there are only $2.4 \pm 0.5 (stat.) \pm 2 (sys.) \times 10^9$ objects with diameters $>100$~m due to the shallow slope of the SFD for diameters $<1$~m. We estimate that the total number of `potentially active' objects with diameters $\ge 1$~km in the Oort cloud, objects that would be defined as LPCs if their perihelia evolved to $<10$~au, is $(1.5\pm1)\times10^{12}$ with a combined mass of $1.3\pm0.9 \, M_{Earth}$. The debiased LPC orbit distribution is broadly in agreement with expectations from contemporary dynamical models but there are discrepancies that could point towards a future ability to disentangle the relative importance of stellar perturbations and galactic tides in producing the LPC population.

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arXiv2019

Asteroid (3200) Phaethon: colors, phase curve, limits on cometary activity and fragmentation

We report on a multi-observatory campaign to examine asteroid 3200 Phaethon during its December 2017 close approach to Earth, in order to improve our measurements of its fundamental parameters, and to search for surface variations, cometary activity and fragmentation. The mean colors of Phaethon are B-V = 0.702 +/- 0.004, V-R = 0.309 +/- 0.003, R-I = 0.266 +/- 0.004, neutral to slightly blue, consistent with previous classifications of Phaethon as a F-type or B-type asteroid. Variations in Phaethon's B-V colors (but not V-R or R-I) with observer sub-latitude are seen and may be associated with craters observed by the Arecibo radar. High cadence photometry over phases from 20 to 100 degrees allows a fit to the values of the HG photometric parameters; H = 14.57 +/- 0.02, 13.63 +/- 0.02, 13.28 +/- 0.02, 13.07 +/- 0.02; G = 0.00 +/- 0.01, -0.09 +/- 0.01, -0.10 +/- 0.01, -0.08 +/- 0.01 in the BVRI filters respectively; the negative G values are consistent with other observations of F type asteroids. Light curve variations were seen that are also consistent with concavities reported by Arecibo, indicative of large craters on Phaethon's surface whose ejecta may be the source of the Geminid meteoroid stream. A search for gas/dust production set an upper limit of 0.06 +/- 0.02 kg/s when Phaethon was 1.449 AU from the Sun, and 0.2 +/- 0.1 kg/s at 1.067 AU. A search for meter-class fragments accompanying Phaethon did not find any whose on-sky motion was not also consistent with background main belt asteroids.

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arXiv2019

The 2019 Taurid resonant swarm: prospects for ground detection of small NEOs

In June 2019 the Earth will approach within 5° mean anomaly of the centre of the Taurid resonant swarm, its closest post-perihelion encounter with Earth since 1975. This will be the best viewing geometry to detect and place limits on the number of NEOs proposed to reside at the swarm centre until the early 2030s. We present an analysis of the optimal times and pointing locations to image NEOs associated with the swarm

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arXiv2018

A New Planet in the Kepler-159 System From Transit Timing Variations

The Kepler Space Telescope has discovered thousands of planets via the transit method. The transit timing variations of these planets allows us not only to infer the existence of other planets, transiting or not, but to characterize a number of parameters of the system. Using the transit timing variations of the planets Kepler-159b and 159c, the transit simulator TTVFast, and the Bayesian Inference tool MultiNest, we predict a new non-transiting planet, Kepler-159d, in a resonant 2:1 orbit with Kepler-159c. This configuration is dynamically stable on at least 10 Myr time scales, though we note that other less stable, higher-order resonances could also produce similar TTVs during the three-year window Kepler was in operation.

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arXiv2018

The Draconid meteoroid stream 2018: prospects for satellite impact detection

Predictions of the 2018 Draconid activity at the Earth and the Sun-Earth L1 and L2 Lagrange points are presented. Numerical simulations of the meteoroids' ejection and evolution from comet 21P/Giacobini-Zinner are performed with a careful implementation of the results analysis and weighting. Model meteoroid fluxes at Earth are derived using as calibration the main peak date, intensity, and shower profiles of previous Draconid outbursts. Good agreement between the model and measurements is found for the 1933, 1946, 1998 and 2011 showers for a meteoroid size distribution index at ejection of about 2.6. A less accurate estimate of the peak time for the 1985, 2005 and 2012 predominantly radio-observed outbursts was found by considering the contribution of individual ejection epochs, while the model peak flux estimate was found to agree with observations to within a factor 3. Despite the promising geometrical configuration in 2018, our simulations predict low Draconid activity is expected on Earth, with a maximum of less than a few tens of meteors per hour around midnight the 9th of October, confirming previous models. At the L1 and L2 Lagrange points, however, the flux estimates suggest a 'meteoroid storm'. The Gaia spacecraft at the L2 region might be able to detect small (~ μg) Draconid meteoroid impacts centered in a two-hour window around 18h30 UT on the 8th of October, 2018.

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arXiv2017

Measuring the meteoroid environments of the planets with meteor detectors on Earth

We describe how meteors recorded at the Earth can be used to partly reconstruct the meteoroid environments of the planets if a large sample (i.e. millions of orbits at a minimum) is available. The process involves selecting from the Earth-based sample those meteors which passed near a planet's orbit prior to arriving at the Earth, and so carry information about the planetary meteoroid environment. Indeed this process can be extended to any location in the Solar System, though some regions of space are better sampled than others. From such a reconstruction performed with data from the Canadian Meteor Orbit Radar (CMOR), we reveal that Mars has apex, helion, anti-helion and toroidal sporadic sources, much as Earth does. Such reconstructions, albeit partial, have the potential to provide a wealth of detail about planetary meteoroid environments, and to allow for the ground-truthing of model meteoroid populations without in situ sampling.

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arXiv2016

Influence of the Centaurs and TNOs on the main belt and its families

Centaurs are objects whose orbits are found between those of the giant planets. They are supposed to originate mainly from the TransNeptunian objects, and they are among the sources of NearEarth Objects.TransNeptunian Objects (TNOs) cross Neptune's orbit and produce the Centaurs. We investigate their interactions with main belt asteroids to determine if chaotic scattering caused by close encounters and impacts by these bodies may have played a role in the dynamical evolution of the main belt. We find that Centaurs and TNOs that reach the inner Solar System can modify the orbits of main belt asteroids, though only if their mass is of the order of 1 billion less the mass of the sun for single encounters or, one order less in the case of multiple close encounters. Centaurs and TNOs are unlikely to have significantly dispersed young asteroid families in the main belt, but they can have perturbed some old asteroid families. Current main belt asteroids that originated as Centaurs or Trans-Neptunian Objects may lie in the outer belt with short lifetime less than 4 My, most likely between 2.8 au and 3.2 au at larger eccentricities than typical of main belt asteroids.

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arXiv2016

Constraints on Comet 332P/Ikeya-Murakami

Encke-type comet 332P/Ikeya-Murakami is experiencing cascading fragmentation events during its 2016 apparition. It is likely the first splitting Encke-type comet ever being observed. A nongravitational solution to the astrometry reveals a statistical detection of the radial and transverse nongravitational parameters, $A_{1} = \left(1.54 \pm 0.39\right) \times 10^{-8}$ AU day$^{-2}$, and $A_{2} = \left(7.19 \pm 1.92\right) \times 10^{-9}$ AU day$^{-2}$, respectively, which implies a nucleus erosion rate of $\left(0.91 \pm 0.17\right)$% per orbital revolution. The mass-loss rate likely has to be supported by a much larger fraction of an active surface area than known cases of short-period comets; it may be relevant to the ongoing fragmentation. We failed to detect any serendipitous pre-discovery observations of the comet in archival data from major sky surveys, whereby we infer that 332P used to be largely inactive, and is perhaps among the few short-period comets which have been reactivated from weakly active or dormant states. We therefore constrain an upper limit to the nucleus size as $2.0 \pm 0.2$ km in radius. A search for small bodies in similar orbits to that of 332P reveals comet P/2010 B2 (WISE) as the best candidate. From an empirical generalised Jupiter-family (Encke-type included) comet population model, we estimate the likelihood of chance alignment of the 332P--P/2010 B2 pair to be 1 in 33, a small number indicative of a genetic linkage between the two comets on a statistical basis. The pair possibly originated from a common progenitor which underwent a disintegration event well before the twentieth century.

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arXiv2016

Detection and Characterization of Extrasolar Planets through Mean-Motion Resonances: Simulations of Hypothetical Debris Disks

The gravitational influence of a planet on a nearby disk provides a powerful tool for detecting and studying extrasolar planetary systems. Here we demonstrate that gaps can be opened in dynamically cold debris disks at the mean-motion resonances of an orbiting planet. The gaps are opened away from the orbit of the planet itself, revealing that not all disk gaps need contain a planetary body. These gaps are large and deep enough to be detectable in resolved disk images for a wide range of reasonable disk-planet parameters, though we are not aware of any such gaps detected to date. The gap shape and size are diagnostic of the planet location, eccentricity and mass, and allow one to infer the existence of unseen planets, as well as many important parameters of both seen and unseen planets in these systems. We present expressions to allow the planetary mass to be calculated from observed gap width and location.

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arXiv2016

Impact detections of temporarily captured natural satellites

Temporarily Captured Orbiters (TCOs) are Near-Earth Objects (NEOs) which make a few orbits of Earth before returning to heliocentric orbits. Only one TCO has been observed to date, 2006 RH120, captured by Earth for one year before escaping. Detailed modeling predicts capture should occur from the NEO population predominantly through the Sun-Earth L1 and L2 points, with 1% of TCOs impacting Earth and approximately 0.1% of meteoroids being TCOs. Although thousands of meteoroid orbits have been measured, none until now have conclusively exhibited TCO behaviour, largely due to difficulties in measuring initial meteoroid speed with sufficient precision. We report on a precise meteor observation of January 13, 2014 by a new generation of all-sky fireball digital camera systems operated in the Czech Republic as part of the European Fireball Network, providing the lowest natural object entry speed observed in decades long monitoring by networks world-wide. Modeling atmospheric deceleration and fragmentation yields an initial mass of ~5 kg and diameter of 15 cm, with a maximum Earth-relative velocity just over 11.0 km/s. Spectral observations prove its natural origin. Back-integration across observational uncertainties yields a 92 - 98% probability of TCO behaviour, with close lunar dynamical interaction. The capture duration varies across observational uncertainties from 48 days to 5+ years. We also report on two low-speed impacts recorded by US Government sensors, and we examine Prairie Network event PN39078 from 1965 having an extremely low entry speed of 10.9 km/s. In these cases uncertainties in measurement and origin make TCO designation uncertain.

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arXiv2015

On the age and formation mechanism of the core of the Quadrantid meteoroid stream

The Quadrantid meteor shower is among the strongest annual meteor showers, and has drawn the attention of scientists for several decades. The stream is unusual, among others, for several reasons: its very short duration around maximum activity (~12 - 14 hours) as detected by visual, photographic and radar observations, its recent onset (around 1835 AD) and because it had been the only major stream without an obvious parent body until 2003. Ever since, there have been debates as to the age of the stream and the nature of its proposed parent body, asteroid 2003 EH1. In this work, we present results on the most probable age and formation mechanism of the narrow portion of the Quadrantid meteoroid stream. For the first time we use data on eight high precision photographic Quadrantids, equivalent to gram - kilogram size, to constrain the most likely age of the core of the stream. Out of eight high-precision photographic Quadrantids, five pertain directly to the narrow portion of the stream. In addition, we also use data on five high-precision radar Quadrantids, observed within the peak of the shower. We performed backwards numerical integrations of the equations of motion of a large number of 'clones' of both, the eight high-precision photographic and five radar Quadrantid meteors, along with the proposed parent body, 2003 EH1. According to our results, from the backward integrations, the most likely age of the narrow structure of the Quadrantids is between 200 - 300 years. These presumed ejection epochs, corresponding to 1700 - 1800 AD, are then used for forward integrations of large numbers of hypothetical meteoroids, ejected from the parent 2003 EH$_1$, until the present epoch. The aim is to constrain whether the core of the Quadrantid meteoroid stream is consistent with a previously proposed relatively young age (~ 200 years).}

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arXiv2015

On the rotation rates and axis ratios of the smallest known near-Earth asteroids---the archetypes of the Asteroid Redirect Mission targets

NASA's Asteroid Redirect Mission (ARM) has been proposed with the aim to capture a small asteroid a few meters in size and redirect it into an orbit around the Moon. There it can be investigated at leisure by astronauts aboard an Orion or other spacecraft. The target for the mission has not yet been selected, and there are very few potential targets currently known. Though sufficiently small near-Earth asteroids (NEAs) are thought to be numerous, they are also difficult to detect and characterize with current observational facilities. Here we collect the most up-to-date information on the smallest known near-Earth asteroids to outline the properties of these small NEAs as currently understood, in order to examine what the eventual ARM target might be like. Observational biases certainly mean that our sample is not an ideal representation of the true population of small NEAs. However our sample is representative of the eventual target list for the ARM mission, which will be compiled under very similar observational constraints unless dramatic changes are made to the way near-Earth asteroids are searched for and studied. We find that the typical rotation period is 40 minutes. The mean and median axis ratios were 1.43 and 1.29. Rotation rates much faster than the spin barrier are seen, reaching below 30 seconds, and implying that most of these bodies are monoliths. Non-principal axis rotation is uncommon. Axial ratios often reach values as high as two, though no undisputed results reach above three. We find little correlation of axis ratio with size. The most common spectral type in the sample of small NEAs is S-type (> 90%), with only a handful of C and X types known.

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arXiv2014

Where are the Mini Kreutz-family Comets?

The Kreutz family of sungrazing comets contains over 2~000 known members, many of which are believed to be under $\sim 100$~m sizes (\textit{mini~comets}) and have only been studied at small heliocentric distances ($r_\mathrm{H}$) with space-based SOHO/STEREO spacecraft. To understand the brightening process of mini Kreutz comets, we conducted a survey using CFHT/MegaCam at moderate $r_\mathrm{H}$ guided by SOHO/STEREO observations. We identify two comets that should be in our search area but are not detected, indicating that the comets have either followed a steeper brightening rate within the previously-reported rapid brighten stage (the \textit{brightening~burst}), or the brightening burst starts earlier than expected. We present a composite analysis of pre-perihelion light-curves of five Kreutz comets that covered to $\sim 1$~AU. We observe a significant diversity in the light-curves that can be used to grossly classify them into two types: C/Ikeya-Seki and C/SWAN follow the canonical $r_\mathrm{H}^{-4}$ while the others follow $r_\mathrm{H}^{-7}$. In particular, C/SWAN seems to have undergone an outburst ($Δm>5$~mag) or a rapid brightening ($n\gtrsim11$) between $r_\mathrm{H}=1.06$~AU to $0.52$~AU, and shows hints of structural/compositional differences compared to other bright Kreutz comets. We also find evidence that the Kreutz comets as a population lose their mass less efficiently than the dynamically new comet, C/ISON, and are relatively devoid of species that drive C/ISON's activity at large $r_\mathrm{H}$. Concurrent observations of C/STEREO in different wavelengths also suggest that a blue-ward species such as CN may be the main driver for brightening burst instead of previously-thought sodium.

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arXiv2014

Using Photometry to Probe the Circumstellar Environment of delta Scorpii

We acquired Johnson BV photometry of the binary Be disk system delta~Scorpii during its 2009, 2010, 2011, and 2012 observing seasons and used it to probe the innermost regions of the disk. We found that several disk building events have occurred during this time, resulting in an overall brightening in the V-band and reddening of the system. In addition to these long-term trends, we found cyclical variability in each observing season on timescales between 60 and 100 days. We were able to reproduce the changes in the magnitude and colour of delta Sco using our theoretical models and found that variable mass-loss rates in the range 2.5-7.0x10^{-9} M_{sun}/yr over ~35 days can reproduce the observed increase in brightness.

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arXiv2011

A population of main belt asteroids co-orbiting with Ceres and Vesta

We have carried out a search for Main Belt Asteroids (MBAs) co-orbiting with the large MBA Vesta and the dwarf planet Ceres. Through improving the search criteria used in (Christou, 2000b) and numerical integrations of candidate coorbitals, we have identified approximately 51 (44) objects currently in co-orbital libration with Ceres (Vesta). We show that these form part of a larger population of transient coorbitals; 129 (94) MBAs undergo episodes of co-orbital libration with Ceres (Vesta) within a 2 Myr interval centred on the present. The lifetime in the resonance is typically a few times 10^5 yr butcan exceed 2*10^6 yr. The variational properties of the orbits of several co-orbitals were examined. It was found that their present states with respect to the secondary are well determined but knowledge of it is lost typically after ~2*10^5 years. Objects initially deeper into the coorbital region maintain their coorbital state for longer. Using the model of Namouni et al. (1999) we show that their dynamics are similar to those of temporary coorbital NEAs of the Earth and Venus. As in that case, the lifetime of resonant libration is dictated by planetary secular perturbations, the inherent chaoticity of the orbits and close encounters with massive objects other than the secondary. In particular we present evidence that, while in the coorbital state, close encounters with the secondary are generally avoided and that Ceres affects the stability of tadpole librators of Vesta. Finally we demonstrate the existence of Quasi-satellite orbiters of both Ceres and Vesta and conclude that decametre-sized objects detected in the vicinity of Vesta by the DAWN mission may, in fact, belong to this dynamical class rather than be bona-fide (i.e. keplerian) satellites of Vesta.

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arXiv2009

Searching for Main-Belt Comets Using the Canada-France-Hawaii Telescope Legacy Survey

The Canada-France-Hawaii Telescope Legacy Survey, specifically the Very Wide segment of data, is used to search for possible main-belt comets. In the first data set, 952 separate objects with asteroidal orbits within the main-belt are examined using a three-level technique. First, the full-width-half-maximum of each object is compared to stars of similar magnitude, to look for evidence of a coma. Second, the brightness profiles of each object are compared with three stars of the same magnitude, which are nearby on the image to ensure any extended profile is not due to imaging variations. Finally, the star profiles are subtracted from the asteroid profile and the residuals are compared with the background using an unpaired T-test. No objects in this survey show evidence of cometary activity. The second survey includes 11438 objects in the main-belt, which are examined visually. One object, an unknown comet, is found to show cometary activity. Its motion is consistent with being a main-belt asteroid, but the observed arc is too short for a definitive orbit calculation. No other body in this survey shows evidence of cometary activity. Upper limits of the number of weakly and strongly active main-belt comets are derived to be 630+/-77 and 87+/-28, respectively. These limits are consistent with those expected from asteroid collisions. In addition, data extracted from the Canada-France-Hawaii Telescope image archive of main-belt comet 176P/LINEAR is presented.

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arXiv2006

Evidence for a colour dependence in the size distribution of main belt asteroids

We present the results of a project to detect small (~1 km) main-belt asteroids with the 3.6 meter Canada-France-Hawaii Telescope (CFHT). We observed in 2 filters (MegaPrime g' and r') in order to compare the results in each band. Owing to the observational cadence we did not observe the same asteroids through each filter and thus do not have true colour information. However strong differences in the size distributions as seen in the two filters point to a colour-dependence at these sizes, perhaps to be expected in this regime where asteroid cohesiveness begins to be dominated by physical strength and composition rather than by gravity. The best fit slopes of the cumulative size distributions (CSDs) in both filters tend towards lower values for smaller asteroids, consistent with the results of previous studies. In addition to this trend, the size distributions seen in the two filters are distinctly different, with steeper slopes in r' than in g'. Breaking our sample up according to semimajor axis, the difference between the filters in the inner belt is found to be somewhat less pronounced than in the middle and outer belt, but the CSD of those asteroids seen in the r' filter is consistently and significantly steeper than in g' throughout. The CSD slopes also show variations with semimajor axis within a given filter, particularly in r'. We conclude that the size distribution of main belt asteroids is likely to be colour dependent at kilometer sizes and that this dependence may vary across the belt.

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