arXiv subjects

Pedro Bizarro

Publications and source records attributed to Pedro Bizarro.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Transfer Learning for Evolving Domains

Transfer learning explores how to leverage knowledge from various tasks or domains (sources) to enhance predictive performance in related tasks or domains (targets). Typically, transfer learning research is segmented into several isolated sub-areas (such as domain generalisation, domain adaptation, or multi-domain learning), each making distinct assumptions about target data availability, namely how much data and how many labels are available at training time. However, in many real-world applications, data availability is not fixed but evolves over time, as instances and labels are progressively collected from a new domain. Each of the classical settings then describes only a snapshot of a trajectory that a deployed system must traverse in full. We formalise this trajectory as a transfer learning problem in its own right, Transfer Learning for Evolving Domains (TrED), specified by a data availability process fixed by the environment, a learning protocol that the method is free to choose, and an evaluation criterion that scores the whole trajectory of models rather than a single one. Within this formalism, the classical settings are recovered as regimes that a learner may pass through, rather than as separate problems that TrED concatenates. We then examine the transfer learning literature to identify mechanisms that are promising building blocks for a solution, and find that most methods are tailored to a single regime and that even the strongest existing candidates do not yet optimise the whole trajectory. We argue that TrED is a well-posed and unsolved problem, and an important direction for future research.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Causal Discovery on Irregular Time Series

Causal discovery methods have shown strong performance in temporal systems, but they typically rely on regular and discrete lag structures, limiting their applicability to regularly sampled data. However, many real-world tasks require dealing with irregularly sampled streams of events, such as sensor streams, healthcare data, and financial transactions. In this work, we propose an extension of PCMCI+, a state-of-the-art method for causal discovery on regular multivariate time series, to allow for handling irregular time series. Instead of modelling causal relations through fixed-lag dependencies, our method aggregates causal influence over predefined temporal windows. We evaluate our method on synthetic irregular event streams with known causal structures under different signal-to-noise ratios, showing that it consistently recovers the underlying causal graph and substantially outperforms the standard PCMCI+ on irregularly sampled data.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

The Balance between Nuance and Clarity: Decluttering Tabular Sequential Graphs to Counter Money Laundering

Money laundering is not only about moving illicit funds, but about hiding the money's origin and traces to complicate detection. Financial criminals resort to many methods to avoid regulators and legal thresholds. But analysts investigating alerts, dedicated to pin mule accounts and track suspicious transactions daily, also have theirs. Network visualizations can be key in countering adversarial money laundering activities, especially if they provide a clear overview of the money flows and a seamless analysis experience, but they are often not structured for this type of task. That is why we propose a tabular sequential graph visualization tailored to money laundering analysis - following transactions (edges) from the victim account that triggered an alert through multiple accounts (nodes) and banks (rows). To reduce the number of nodes and edges, we propose three methods for grouping these tabular sequential graphs: an amount-based approach, a time-based approach, and a combined solution that considers both the transaction amount and its order. A user study with experts revealed that the most effective method in node reduction was not necessarily the most interesting for analysis and that there is a trade-off between manual work and time for interpretation in more granular graphs.

cs.HC↗

arXiv2026

Decoupling Inference from State Updates in Low-Latency Feature Engines via Probabilistic Thinning

Streaming data systems increasingly underpin Machine Learning workflows that maintain large numbers of continuously updated aggregations. In production settings, each incoming event typically triggers read-modify-write operations to persistent storage, making high-frequency state updates a dominant source of latency, contention, and operational cost. In this work, we decouple inference from state persistence in streaming Machine Learning pipelines via probabilistic thinning: every event is scored, but durable state updates are selectively triggered by informative events. Unlike approaches that shed input or state, we show that persistence-path control is achievable without a high-frequency in-memory control plane or cross-worker coordination, relying exclusively on approximate statistics retrieved from disk-backed key-value stores. We model the resulting stochastic processes, derive bounds on filtering rates, and prove that common time-based aggregations remain unbiased under variance-aware formulations, preventing systemic error accumulation. We evaluate the approach in a controlled setting that isolates per-event costs, demonstrating substantial reductions in storage Input/Output and serialization overhead. Across experiments, up to 90% of events are excluded from the persistence path while preserving and in some cases improving downstream utility.

cs.DB↗

arXiv2026

Rethinking XAI Evaluation: A Human-Centered Audit of Shapley Benchmarks in High-Stakes Settings

Shapley values are a cornerstone of explainable AI, yet their proliferation into competing formulations has created a fragmented landscape with little consensus on practical deployment. While theoretical differences are well-documented, evaluation remains reliant on quantitative proxies whose alignment with human utility is unverified. In this work, we use a unified amortized framework to isolate semantic differences between eight Shapley variants under the low-latency constraints of operational risk workflows. We conduct a large-scale empirical evaluation across four risk datasets and a realistic fraud-detection environment involving professional analysts and 3,735 case reviews. Our results reveal a fundamental misalignment: standard quantitative metrics, such as sparsity and faithfulness, are decoupled from human-perceived clarity and decision utility. Furthermore, while no formulation improved objective analyst performance, explanations consistently increased decision confidence, signaling a critical risk of automation bias in high-stakes settings. These findings suggest that current evaluation proxies are insufficient for predicting downstream human impact, and we provide evidence-based guidance for selecting formulations and metrics in operational decision systems.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

MUSE: Multi-Tenant Model Serving With Seamless Model Updates

In binary classification systems, decision thresholds translate model scores into actions. Choosing suitable thresholds relies on the specific distribution of the underlying model scores but also on the specific business decisions of each client using that model. However, retraining models inevitably shifts score distributions, invalidating existing thresholds. In multi-tenant Score-as-a-Service environments, where decision boundaries reside in client-managed infrastructure, this creates a severe bottleneck: recalibration requires coordinating threshold updates across hundreds of clients, consuming excessive human hours and leading to model stagnation. We introduce MUSE, a model serving framework that enables seamless model updates by decoupling model scores from client decision boundaries. Designed for multi-tenancy, MUSE optimizes infrastructure re-use by sharing models via dynamic intent-based routing, combined with a two-level score transformation that maps model outputs to a stable, reference distribution. Deployed at scale by Feedzai, MUSE processes over a thousand events per second, and over 55 billion events in the last 12 months, across several dozens of tenants, while maintaining high-availability and low-latency guarantees. By reducing model lead time from weeks to minutes, MUSE promotes model resilience against shifting attacks, saving millions of dollars in fraud losses and operational costs.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Benchmark It Yourself (BIY): Preparing a Dataset and Benchmarking AI Models for Scatterplot-Related Tasks

AI models are increasingly used for data analysis and visualization, yet benchmarks rarely address scatterplot-specific tasks, limiting insight into performance. To address this gap for one of the most common chart types, we introduce a synthetic, annotated dataset of over 18,000 scatterplots from six data generators and 17 chart designs, and a benchmark based on it. We evaluate proprietary models from OpenAI and Google using N-shot prompting on five distinct tasks derived from annotations of cluster bounding boxes, their center coordinates, and outlier coordinates. OpenAI models and Gemini 2.5 Flash, especially when prompted with examples, are viable options for counting clusters and, in Flash's case, outliers (90%+ Accuracy). However, the results for localization-related tasks are unsatisfactory: Precision and Recall are near or below 50%, except for Flash in outlier identification (65.01%). Furthermore, the impact of chart design on performance appears to be a secondary factor, but it is advisable to avoid scatterplots with wide aspect ratios (16:9 and 21:9) or those colored randomly. Supplementary materials are available at https://github.com/feedzai/biy-paper.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Evaluating Transfer Learning Methods on Real-World Data Streams: A Case Study in Financial Fraud Detection

When the available data for a target domain is limited, transfer learning (TL) methods can be used to develop models on related data-rich domains, before deploying them on the target domain. However, these TL methods are typically designed with specific, static assumptions on the amount of available labeled and unlabeled target data. This is in contrast with many real world applications, where the availability of data and corresponding labels varies over time. Since the evaluation of the TL methods is typically also performed under the same static data availability assumptions, this would lead to unrealistic expectations concerning their performance in real world settings. To support a more realistic evaluation and comparison of TL algorithms and models, we propose a data manipulation framework that (1) simulates varying data availability scenarios over time, (2) creates multiple domains through resampling of a given dataset and (3) introduces inter-domain variability by applying realistic domain transformations, e.g., creating a variety of potentially time-dependent covariate and concept shifts. These capabilities enable simulation of a large number of realistic variants of the experiments, in turn providing more information about the potential behavior of algorithms when deployed in dynamic settings. We demonstrate the usefulness of the proposed framework by performing a case study on a proprietary real-world suite of card payment datasets. Given the confidential nature of the case study, we also illustrate the use of the framework on the publicly available Bank Account Fraud (BAF) dataset. By providing a methodology for evaluating TL methods over time and in realistic data availability scenarios, our framework facilitates understanding of the behavior of models and algorithms. This leads to better decision making when deploying models for new domains in real-world environments.

q-fin.ST↗

arXiv2024

Mind the truncation gap: challenges of learning on dynamic graphs with recurrent architectures

Systems characterized by evolving interactions, prevalent in social, financial, and biological domains, are effectively modeled as continuous-time dynamic graphs (CTDGs). To manage the scale and complexity of these graph datasets, machine learning (ML) approaches have become essential. However, CTDGs pose challenges for ML because traditional static graph methods do not naturally account for event timings. Newer approaches, such as graph recurrent neural networks (GRNNs), are inherently time-aware and offer advantages over static methods for CTDGs. However, GRNNs face another issue: the short truncation of backpropagation-through-time (BPTT), whose impact has not been properly examined until now. In this work, we demonstrate that this truncation can limit the learning of dependencies beyond a single hop, resulting in reduced performance. Through experiments on a novel synthetic task and real-world datasets, we reveal a performance gap between full backpropagation-through-time (F-BPTT) and the truncated backpropagation-through-time (T-BPTT) commonly used to train GRNN models. We term this gap the "truncation gap" and argue that understanding and addressing it is essential as the importance of CTDGs grows, discussing potential future directions for research in this area.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Deep-Graph-Sprints: Accelerated Representation Learning in Continuous-Time Dynamic Graphs

Continuous-time dynamic graphs (CTDGs) are essential for modeling interconnected, evolving systems. Traditional methods for extracting knowledge from these graphs often depend on feature engineering or deep learning. Feature engineering is limited by the manual and time-intensive nature of crafting features, while deep learning approaches suffer from high inference latency, making them impractical for real-time applications. This paper introduces Deep-Graph-Sprints (DGS), a novel deep learning architecture designed for efficient representation learning on CTDGs with low-latency inference requirements. We benchmark DGS against state-of-the-art (SOTA) feature engineering and graph neural network methods using five diverse datasets. The results indicate that DGS achieves competitive performance while inference speed improves between 4x and 12x compared to other deep learning approaches on our benchmark datasets. Our method effectively bridges the gap between deep representation learning and low-latency application requirements for CTDGs.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Aequitas Flow: Streamlining Fair ML Experimentation

Aequitas Flow is an open-source framework and toolkit for end-to-end Fair Machine Learning (ML) experimentation, and benchmarking in Python. This package fills integration gaps that exist in other fair ML packages. In addition to the existing audit capabilities in Aequitas, the Aequitas Flow module provides a pipeline for fairness-aware model training, hyperparameter optimization, and evaluation, enabling easy-to-use and rapid experiments and analysis of results. Aimed at ML practitioners and researchers, the framework offers implementations of methods, datasets, metrics, and standard interfaces for these components to improve extensibility. By facilitating the development of fair ML practices, Aequitas Flow hopes to enhance the incorporation of fairness concepts in AI systems making AI systems more robust and fair.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

"Show Me What's Wrong!": Combining Charts and Text to Guide Data Analysis

Analyzing and finding anomalies in multi-dimensional datasets is a cumbersome but vital task across different domains. In the context of financial fraud detection, analysts must quickly identify suspicious activity among transactional data. This is an iterative process made of complex exploratory tasks such as recognizing patterns, grouping, and comparing. To mitigate the information overload inherent to these steps, we present a tool combining automated information highlights, Large Language Model generated textual insights, and visual analytics, facilitating exploration at different levels of detail. We perform a segmentation of the data per analysis area and visually represent each one, making use of automated visual cues to signal which require more attention. Upon user selection of an area, our system provides textual and graphical summaries. The text, acting as a link between the high-level and detailed views of the chosen segment, allows for a quick understanding of relevant details. A thorough exploration of the data comprising the selection can be done through graphical representations. The feedback gathered in a study performed with seven domain experts suggests our tool effectively supports and guides exploratory analysis, easing the identification of suspicious information.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Fair-OBNC: Correcting Label Noise for Fairer Datasets

Data used by automated decision-making systems, such as Machine Learning models, often reflects discriminatory behavior that occurred in the past. These biases in the training data are sometimes related to label noise, such as in COMPAS, where more African-American offenders are wrongly labeled as having a higher risk of recidivism when compared to their White counterparts. Models trained on such biased data may perpetuate or even aggravate the biases with respect to sensitive information, such as gender, race, or age. However, while multiple label noise correction approaches are available in the literature, these focus on model performance exclusively. In this work, we propose Fair-OBNC, a label noise correction method with fairness considerations, to produce training datasets with measurable demographic parity. The presented method adapts Ordering-Based Noise Correction, with an adjusted criterion of ordering, based both on the margin of error of an ensemble, and the potential increase in the observed demographic parity of the dataset. We evaluate Fair-OBNC against other different pre-processing techniques, under different scenarios of controlled label noise. Our results show that the proposed method is the overall better alternative within the pool of label correction methods, being capable of attaining better reconstructions of the original labels. Models trained in the corrected data have an increase, on average, of 150% in demographic parity, when compared to models trained in data with noisy labels, across the considered levels of label noise.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

RIFF: Inducing Rules for Fraud Detection from Decision Trees

Financial fraud is the cause of multi-billion dollar losses annually. Traditionally, fraud detection systems rely on rules due to their transparency and interpretability, key features in domains where decisions need to be explained. However, rule systems require significant input from domain experts to create and tune, an issue that rule induction algorithms attempt to mitigate by inferring rules directly from data. We explore the application of these algorithms to fraud detection, where rule systems are constrained to have a low false positive rate (FPR) or alert rate, by proposing RIFF, a rule induction algorithm that distills a low FPR rule set directly from decision trees. Our experiments show that the induced rules are often able to maintain or improve performance of the original models for low FPR tasks, while substantially reducing their complexity and outperforming rules hand-tuned by experts.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Cost-Sensitive Learning to Defer to Multiple Experts with Workload Constraints

Learning to defer (L2D) aims to improve human-AI collaboration systems by learning how to defer decisions to humans when they are more likely to be correct than an ML classifier. Existing research in L2D overlooks key real-world aspects that impede its practical adoption, namely: i) neglecting cost-sensitive scenarios, where type I and type II errors have different costs; ii) requiring concurrent human predictions for every instance of the training dataset; and iii) not dealing with human work-capacity constraints. To address these issues, we propose the \textit{deferral under cost and capacity constraints framework} (DeCCaF). DeCCaF is a novel L2D approach, employing supervised learning to model the probability of human error under less restrictive data requirements (only one expert prediction per instance) and using constraint programming to globally minimize the error cost, subject to workload limitations. We test DeCCaF in a series of cost-sensitive fraud detection scenarios with different teams of 9 synthetic fraud analysts, with individual work-capacity constraints. The results demonstrate that our approach performs significantly better than the baselines in a wide array of scenarios, achieving an average $8.4\%$ reduction in the misclassification cost. The code used for the experiments is available at https://github.com/feedzai/deccaf

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

From random-walks to graph-sprints: a low-latency node embedding framework on continuous-time dynamic graphs

Many real-world datasets have an underlying dynamic graph structure, where entities and their interactions evolve over time. Machine learning models should consider these dynamics in order to harness their full potential in downstream tasks. Previous approaches for graph representation learning have focused on either sampling k-hop neighborhoods, akin to breadth-first search, or random walks, akin to depth-first search. However, these methods are computationally expensive and unsuitable for real-time, low-latency inference on dynamic graphs. To overcome these limitations, we propose graph-sprints a general purpose feature extraction framework for continuous-time-dynamic-graphs (CTDGs) that has low latency and is competitive with state-of-the-art, higher latency models. To achieve this, a streaming, low latency approximation to the random-walk based features is proposed. In our framework, time-aware node embeddings summarizing multi-hop information are computed using only single-hop operations on the incoming edges. We evaluate our proposed approach on three open-source datasets and two in-house datasets, and compare with three state-of-the-art algorithms (TGN-attn, TGN-ID, Jodie). We demonstrate that our graph-sprints features, combined with a machine learning classifier, achieve competitive performance (outperforming all baselines for the node classification tasks in five datasets). Simultaneously, graph-sprints significantly reduce inference latencies, achieving close to an order of magnitude speed-up in our experimental setting.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

DiConStruct: Causal Concept-based Explanations through Black-Box Distillation

Model interpretability plays a central role in human-AI decision-making systems. Ideally, explanations should be expressed using human-interpretable semantic concepts. Moreover, the causal relations between these concepts should be captured by the explainer to allow for reasoning about the explanations. Lastly, explanation methods should be efficient and not compromise the performance of the predictive task. Despite the rapid advances in AI explainability in recent years, as far as we know to date, no method fulfills these three properties. Indeed, mainstream methods for local concept explainability do not produce causal explanations and incur a trade-off between explainability and prediction performance. We present DiConStruct, an explanation method that is both concept-based and causal, with the goal of creating more interpretable local explanations in the form of structural causal models and concept attributions. Our explainer works as a distillation model to any black-box machine learning model by approximating its predictions while producing the respective explanations. Because of this, DiConStruct generates explanations efficiently while not impacting the black-box prediction task. We validate our method on an image dataset and a tabular dataset, showing that DiConStruct approximates the black-box models with higher fidelity than other concept explainability baselines, while providing explanations that include the causal relations between the concepts.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

FiFAR: A Fraud Detection Dataset for Learning to Defer

Public dataset limitations have significantly hindered the development and benchmarking of learning to defer (L2D) algorithms, which aim to optimally combine human and AI capabilities in hybrid decision-making systems. In such systems, human availability and domain-specific concerns introduce difficulties, while obtaining human predictions for training and evaluation is costly. Financial fraud detection is a high-stakes setting where algorithms and human experts often work in tandem; however, there are no publicly available datasets for L2D concerning this important application of human-AI teaming. To fill this gap in L2D research, we introduce the Financial Fraud Alert Review Dataset (FiFAR), a synthetic bank account fraud detection dataset, containing the predictions of a team of 50 highly complex and varied synthetic fraud analysts, with varied bias and feature dependence. We also provide a realistic definition of human work capacity constraints, an aspect of L2D systems that is often overlooked, allowing for extensive testing of assignment systems under real-world conditions. We use our dataset to develop a capacity-aware L2D method and rejection learning approach under realistic data availability conditions, and benchmark these baselines under an array of 300 distinct testing scenarios. We believe that this dataset will serve as a pivotal instrument in facilitating a systematic, rigorous, reproducible, and transparent evaluation and comparison of L2D methods, thereby fostering the development of more synergistic human-AI collaboration in decision-making systems. The public dataset and detailed synthetic expert information are available at: https://github.com/feedzai/fifar-dataset

cs.LG↗