arXiv subjects

Pedro Bizarro

Publications and source records attributed to Pedro Bizarro.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2023

Adversarial training for tabular data with attack propagation

Adversarial attacks are a major concern in security-centered applications, where malicious actors continuously try to mislead Machine Learning (ML) models into wrongly classifying fraudulent activity as legitimate, whereas system maintainers try to stop them. Adversarially training ML models that are robust against such attacks can prevent business losses and reduce the work load of system maintainers. In such applications data is often tabular and the space available for attackers to manipulate undergoes complex feature engineering transformations, to provide useful signals for model training, to a space attackers cannot access. Thus, we propose a new form of adversarial training where attacks are propagated between the two spaces in the training loop. We then test this method empirically on a real world dataset in the domain of credit card fraud detection. We show that our method can prevent about 30% performance drops under moderate attacks and is essential under very aggressive attacks, with a trade-off loss in performance under no attacks smaller than 7%.

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arXiv2023

The GANfather: Controllable generation of malicious activity to improve defence systems

Machine learning methods to aid defence systems in detecting malicious activity typically rely on labelled data. In some domains, such labelled data is unavailable or incomplete. In practice this can lead to low detection rates and high false positive rates, which characterise for example anti-money laundering systems. In fact, it is estimated that 1.7--4 trillion euros are laundered annually and go undetected. We propose The GANfather, a method to generate samples with properties of malicious activity, without label requirements. We propose to reward the generation of malicious samples by introducing an extra objective to the typical Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) loss. Ultimately, our goal is to enhance the detection of illicit activity using the discriminator network as a novel and robust defence system. Optionally, we may encourage the generator to bypass pre-existing detection systems. This setup then reveals defensive weaknesses for the discriminator to correct. We evaluate our method in two real-world use cases, money laundering and recommendation systems. In the former, our method moves cumulative amounts close to 350 thousand dollars through a network of accounts without being detected by an existing system. In the latter, we recommend the target item to a broad user base with as few as 30 synthetic attackers. In both cases, we train a new defence system to capture the synthetic attacks.

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arXiv2023

Fairness-Aware Data Valuation for Supervised Learning

Data valuation is a ML field that studies the value of training instances towards a given predictive task. Although data bias is one of the main sources of downstream model unfairness, previous work in data valuation does not consider how training instances may influence both performance and fairness of ML models. Thus, we propose Fairness-Aware Data vauatiOn (FADO), a data valuation framework that can be used to incorporate fairness concerns into a series of ML-related tasks (e.g., data pre-processing, exploratory data analysis, active learning). We propose an entropy-based data valuation metric suited to address our two-pronged goal of maximizing both performance and fairness, which is more computationally efficient than existing metrics. We then show how FADO can be applied as the basis for unfairness mitigation pre-processing techniques. Our methods achieve promising results -- up to a 40 p.p. improvement in fairness at a less than 1 p.p. loss in performance compared to a baseline -- and promote fairness in a data-centric way, where a deeper understanding of data quality takes center stage.

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arXiv2023

FairGBM: Gradient Boosting with Fairness Constraints

Tabular data is prevalent in many high-stakes domains, such as financial services or public policy. Gradient Boosted Decision Trees (GBDT) are popular in these settings due to their scalability, performance, and low training cost. While fairness in these domains is a foremost concern, existing in-processing Fair ML methods are either incompatible with GBDT, or incur in significant performance losses while taking considerably longer to train. We present FairGBM, a dual ascent learning framework for training GBDT under fairness constraints, with little to no impact on predictive performance when compared to unconstrained GBDT. Since observational fairness metrics are non-differentiable, we propose smooth convex error rate proxies for common fairness criteria, enabling gradient-based optimization using a ``proxy-Lagrangian'' formulation. Our implementation shows an order of magnitude speedup in training time relative to related work, a pivotal aspect to foster the widespread adoption of FairGBM by real-world practitioners.

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arXiv2023

On the Importance of Application-Grounded Experimental Design for Evaluating Explainable ML Methods

Most existing evaluations of explainable machine learning (ML) methods rely on simplifying assumptions or proxies that do not reflect real-world use cases; the handful of more robust evaluations on real-world settings have shortcomings in their design, resulting in limited conclusions of methods' real-world utility. In this work, we seek to bridge this gap by conducting a study that evaluates three popular explainable ML methods in a setting consistent with the intended deployment context. We build on a previous study on e-commerce fraud detection and make crucial modifications to its setup relaxing the simplifying assumptions made in the original work that departed from the deployment context. In doing so, we draw drastically different conclusions from the earlier work and find no evidence for the incremental utility of the tested methods in the task. Our results highlight how seemingly trivial experimental design choices can yield misleading conclusions, with lessons about the necessity of not only evaluating explainable ML methods using tasks, data, users, and metrics grounded in the intended deployment contexts but also developing methods tailored to specific applications. In addition, we believe the design of this experiment can serve as a template for future study designs evaluating explainable ML methods in other real-world contexts.

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arXiv2022

Turning the Tables: Biased, Imbalanced, Dynamic Tabular Datasets for ML Evaluation

Evaluating new techniques on realistic datasets plays a crucial role in the development of ML research and its broader adoption by practitioners. In recent years, there has been a significant increase of publicly available unstructured data resources for computer vision and NLP tasks. However, tabular data -- which is prevalent in many high-stakes domains -- has been lagging behind. To bridge this gap, we present Bank Account Fraud (BAF), the first publicly available privacy-preserving, large-scale, realistic suite of tabular datasets. The suite was generated by applying state-of-the-art tabular data generation techniques on an anonymized,real-world bank account opening fraud detection dataset. This setting carries a set of challenges that are commonplace in real-world applications, including temporal dynamics and significant class imbalance. Additionally, to allow practitioners to stress test both performance and fairness of ML methods, each dataset variant of BAF contains specific types of data bias. With this resource, we aim to provide the research community with a more realistic, complete, and robust test bed to evaluate novel and existing methods.

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arXiv2022

LaundroGraph: Self-Supervised Graph Representation Learning for Anti-Money Laundering

Anti-money laundering (AML) regulations mandate financial institutions to deploy AML systems based on a set of rules that, when triggered, form the basis of a suspicious alert to be assessed by human analysts. Reviewing these cases is a cumbersome and complex task that requires analysts to navigate a large network of financial interactions to validate suspicious movements. Furthermore, these systems have very high false positive rates (estimated to be over 95\%). The scarcity of labels hinders the use of alternative systems based on supervised learning, reducing their applicability in real-world applications. In this work we present LaundroGraph, a novel self-supervised graph representation learning approach to encode banking customers and financial transactions into meaningful representations. These representations are used to provide insights to assist the AML reviewing process, such as identifying anomalous movements for a given customer. LaundroGraph represents the underlying network of financial interactions as a customer-transaction bipartite graph and trains a graph neural network on a fully self-supervised link prediction task. We empirically demonstrate that our approach outperforms other strong baselines on self-supervised link prediction using a real-world dataset, improving the best non-graph baseline by $12$ p.p. of AUC. The goal is to increase the efficiency of the reviewing process by supplying these AI-powered insights to the analysts upon review. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first fully self-supervised system within the context of AML detection.

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arXiv2022

Lightweight Automated Feature Monitoring for Data Streams

Monitoring the behavior of automated real-time stream processing systems has become one of the most relevant problems in real world applications. Such systems have grown in complexity relying heavily on high dimensional input data, and data hungry Machine Learning (ML) algorithms. We propose a flexible system, Feature Monitoring (FM), that detects data drifts in such data sets, with a small and constant memory footprint and a small computational cost in streaming applications. The method is based on a multi-variate statistical test and is data driven by design (full reference distributions are estimated from the data). It monitors all features that are used by the system, while providing an interpretable features ranking whenever an alarm occurs (to aid in root cause analysis). The computational and memory lightness of the system results from the use of Exponential Moving Histograms. In our experimental study, we analyze the system's behavior with its parameters and, more importantly, show examples where it detects problems that are not directly related to a single feature. This illustrates how FM eliminates the need to add custom signals to detect specific types of problems and that monitoring the available space of features is often enough.

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arXiv2022

Human-AI Collaboration in Decision-Making: Beyond Learning to Defer

Human-AI collaboration (HAIC) in decision-making aims to create synergistic teaming between human decision-makers and AI systems. Learning to defer (L2D) has been presented as a promising framework to determine who among humans and AI should make which decisions in order to optimize the performance and fairness of the combined system. Nevertheless, L2D entails several often unfeasible requirements, such as the availability of predictions from humans for every instance or ground-truth labels that are independent from said humans. Furthermore, neither L2D nor alternative approaches tackle fundamental issues of deploying HAIC systems in real-world settings, such as capacity management or dealing with dynamic environments. In this paper, we aim to identify and review these and other limitations, pointing to where opportunities for future research in HAIC may lie.

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arXiv2022

Understanding Unfairness in Fraud Detection through Model and Data Bias Interactions

In recent years, machine learning algorithms have become ubiquitous in a multitude of high-stakes decision-making applications. The unparalleled ability of machine learning algorithms to learn patterns from data also enables them to incorporate biases embedded within. A biased model can then make decisions that disproportionately harm certain groups in society -- limiting their access to financial services, for example. The awareness of this problem has given rise to the field of Fair ML, which focuses on studying, measuring, and mitigating unfairness in algorithmic prediction, with respect to a set of protected groups (e.g., race or gender). However, the underlying causes for algorithmic unfairness still remain elusive, with researchers divided between blaming either the ML algorithms or the data they are trained on. In this work, we maintain that algorithmic unfairness stems from interactions between models and biases in the data, rather than from isolated contributions of either of them. To this end, we propose a taxonomy to characterize data bias and we study a set of hypotheses regarding the fairness-accuracy trade-offs that fairness-blind ML algorithms exhibit under different data bias settings. On our real-world account-opening fraud use case, we find that each setting entails specific trade-offs, affecting fairness in expected value and variance -- the latter often going unnoticed. Moreover, we show how algorithms compare differently in terms of accuracy and fairness, depending on the biases affecting the data. Finally, we note that under specific data bias conditions, simple pre-processing interventions can successfully balance group-wise error rates, while the same techniques fail in more complex settings.

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arXiv2022

Prisoners of Their Own Devices: How Models Induce Data Bias in Performative Prediction

The unparalleled ability of machine learning algorithms to learn patterns from data also enables them to incorporate biases embedded within. A biased model can then make decisions that disproportionately harm certain groups in society. Much work has been devoted to measuring unfairness in static ML environments, but not in dynamic, performative prediction ones, in which most real-world use cases operate. In the latter, the predictive model itself plays a pivotal role in shaping the distribution of the data. However, little attention has been heeded to relating unfairness to these interactions. Thus, to further the understanding of unfairness in these settings, we propose a taxonomy to characterize bias in the data, and study cases where it is shaped by model behaviour. Using a real-world account opening fraud detection case study as an example, we study the dangers to both performance and fairness of two typical biases in performative prediction: distribution shifts, and the problem of selective labels.

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arXiv2022

Anti-Money Laundering Alert Optimization Using Machine Learning with Graphs

Money laundering is a global problem that concerns legitimizing proceeds from serious felonies (1.7-4 trillion euros annually) such as drug dealing, human trafficking, or corruption. The anti-money laundering systems deployed by financial institutions typically comprise rules aligned with regulatory frameworks. Human investigators review the alerts and report suspicious cases. Such systems suffer from high false-positive rates, undermining their effectiveness and resulting in high operational costs. We propose a machine learning triage model, which complements the rule-based system and learns to predict the risk of an alert accurately. Our model uses both entity-centric engineered features and attributes characterizing inter-entity relations in the form of graph-based features. We leverage time windows to construct the dynamic graph, optimizing for time and space efficiency. We validate our model on a real-world banking dataset and show how the triage model can reduce the number of false positives by 80% while detecting over 90% of true positives. In this way, our model can significantly improve anti-money laundering operations.

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arXiv2022

ConceptDistil: Model-Agnostic Distillation of Concept Explanations

Concept-based explanations aims to fill the model interpretability gap for non-technical humans-in-the-loop. Previous work has focused on providing concepts for specific models (eg, neural networks) or data types (eg, images), and by either trying to extract concepts from an already trained network or training self-explainable models through multi-task learning. In this work, we propose ConceptDistil, a method to bring concept explanations to any black-box classifier using knowledge distillation. ConceptDistil is decomposed into two components:(1) a concept model that predicts which domain concepts are present in a given instance, and (2) a distillation model that tries to mimic the predictions of a black-box model using the concept model predictions. We validate ConceptDistil in a real world use-case, showing that it is able to optimize both tasks, bringing concept-explainability to any black-box model.

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arXiv2022

Data+Shift: Supporting visual investigation of data distribution shifts by data scientists

Machine learning on data streams is increasingly more present in multiple domains. However, there is often data distribution shift that can lead machine learning models to make incorrect decisions. While there are automatic methods to detect when drift is happening, human analysis, often by data scientists, is essential to diagnose the causes of the problem and adjust the system. We propose Data+Shift, a visual analytics tool to support data scientists in the task of investigating the underlying factors of shift in data features in the context of fraud detection. Design requirements were derived from interviews with data scientists. Data+Shift is integrated with JupyterLab and can be used alongside other data science tools. We validated our approach with a think-aloud experiment where a data scientist used the tool for a fraud detection use case.

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arXiv2021

Active learning for imbalanced data under cold start

Modern systems that rely on Machine Learning (ML) for predictive modelling, may suffer from the cold-start problem: supervised models work well but, initially, there are no labels, which are costly or slow to obtain. This problem is even worse in imbalanced data scenarios, where labels of the positive class take longer to accumulate. We propose an Active Learning (AL) system for datasets with orders of magnitude of class imbalance, in a cold start streaming scenario. We present a computationally efficient Outlier-based Discriminative AL approach (ODAL) and design a novel 3-stage sequence of AL labeling policies where ODAL is used as warm-up. Then, we perform empirical studies in four real world datasets, with various magnitudes of class imbalance. The results show that our method can more quickly reach a high performance model than standard AL policies without ODAL warm-up. Its observed gains over random sampling can reach 80% and be competitive with policies with an unlimited annotation budget or additional historical data (using just 2% to 10% of the labels).

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arXiv2021

Promoting Fairness through Hyperparameter Optimization

Considerable research effort has been guided towards algorithmic fairness but real-world adoption of bias reduction techniques is still scarce. Existing methods are either metric- or model-specific, require access to sensitive attributes at inference time, or carry high development or deployment costs. This work explores the unfairness that emerges when optimizing ML models solely for predictive performance, and how to mitigate it with a simple and easily deployed intervention: fairness-aware hyperparameter optimization (HO). We propose and evaluate fairness-aware variants of three popular HO algorithms: Fair Random Search, Fair TPE, and Fairband. We validate our approach on a real-world bank account opening fraud case-study, as well as on three datasets from the fairness literature. Results show that, without extra training cost, it is feasible to find models with 111% mean fairness increase and just 6% decrease in performance when compared with fairness-blind HO.

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arXiv2021

Machine learning methods to detect money laundering in the Bitcoin blockchain in the presence of label scarcity

Every year, criminals launder billions of dollars acquired from serious felonies (e.g., terrorism, drug smuggling, or human trafficking) harming countless people and economies. Cryptocurrencies, in particular, have developed as a haven for money laundering activity. Machine Learning can be used to detect these illicit patterns. However, labels are so scarce that traditional supervised algorithms are inapplicable. Here, we address money laundering detection assuming minimal access to labels. First, we show that existing state-of-the-art solutions using unsupervised anomaly detection methods are inadequate to detect the illicit patterns in a real Bitcoin transaction dataset. Then, we show that our proposed active learning solution is capable of matching the performance of a fully supervised baseline by using just 5\% of the labels. This solution mimics a typical real-life situation in which a limited number of labels can be acquired through manual annotation by experts.

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arXiv2021

GUDIE: a flexible, user-defined method to extract subgraphs of interest from large graphs

Large, dense, small-world networks often emerge from social phenomena, including financial networks, social media, or epidemiology. As networks grow in importance, it is often necessary to partition them into meaningful units of analysis. In this work, we propose GUDIE, a message-passing algorithm that extracts relevant context around seed nodes based on user-defined criteria. We design GUDIE for rich, labeled graphs, and expansions consider node and edge attributes. Preliminary results indicate that GUDIE expands to insightful areas while avoiding unimportant connections. The resulting subgraphs contain the relevant context for a seed node and can accelerate and extend analysis capabilities in finance and other critical networks.

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