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Peilun He

Publications and source records attributed to Peilun He.

9 recordsLinked to original sources

On the Distributed Estimation for Scalar-on-Function Regression Models

This paper proposes distributed estimation procedures for three scalar-on-function regression models: the functional linear model (FLM), the functional non-parametric model (FNPM), and the functional partial linear model (FPLM). The framework addresses two key challenges in functional data analysis, namely the high computational cost of large samples and limitations on sharing raw data across institutions. Monte Carlo simulations show that the distributed estimators substantially reduce computation time while preserving high estimation and prediction accuracy for all three models. When block sizes become too small, the FPLM exhibits overfitting, leading to narrower prediction intervals and reduced empirical coverage probability. An example of an empirical study using the \textit{tecator} dataset further supports these findings.

stat.CO

Dynamical phase evolution of Coulomb-focused electrons in strong-field ionization probed by a standing light wave

We investigate the dynamical phase evolution of Coulomb-focused electrons in strong-field ionization. We diffract the electrons with an ultrashort standing light wave to track their time-dependent phase. Our findings show that low-energy electrons exhibit a unique chromosome-shaped diffraction pattern, distinct from higher-energy electrons. Our numerical model quantitatively reproduces the experimental results, confirming this pattern maps the electron's time-dependent phase evolution as it escapes from a Coulomb potential. Our pulsed diffraction grating technique offers a new way to sense an electron's quantum phase without interfering its release mechanism.

physics.atom-ph

Multi-Factor Function-on-Function Regression of Bond Yields on WTI Commodity Futures Term Structure Dynamics

In the analysis of commodity futures, it is commonly assumed that futures prices are driven by two latent factors: short-term fluctuations and long-term equilibrium price levels. In this study, we extend this framework by introducing a novel state-space functional regression model that incorporates yield curve dynamics. Our model offers a distinct advantage in capturing the interdependencies between commodity futures and the yield curve. Through a comprehensive empirical analysis of WTI crude oil futures, using US Treasury yields as a functional predictor, we demonstrate the superior accuracy of the functional regression model compared to the Schwartz-Smith two-factor model, particularly in estimating the short-end of the futures curve. Additionally, we conduct a stress testing analysis to examine the impact of both temporary and permanent shocks to US Treasury yields on futures price estimation.

q-fin.ST

Multi-Factor Polynomial Diffusion Models and Inter-Temporal Futures Dynamics

In stochastic multi-factor commodity models, it is often the case that futures prices are explained by two latent state variables which represent the short and long term stochastic factors. In this work, we develop the family of stochastic models using polynomial diffusion to obtain the unobservable spot price to be used for modelling futures curve dynamics. The polynomial family of diffusion models allows one to incorporate a variety of non-linear, higher-order effects, into a multi-factor stochastic model, which is a generalisation of Schwartz and Smith (2000) two-factor model. Two filtering methods are used for the parameter and the latent factor estimation to address the non-linearity. We provide a comparative analysis of the performance of the estimation procedures. We discuss the parameter identification problem present in the polynomial diffusion case, regardless, the futures prices can still be estimated accurately. Moreover, we study the effects of different methods of calculating matrix exponential in the polynomial diffusion model. As the polynomial order increases, accurately and efficiently approximating the high-dimensional matrix exponential becomes essential in the polynomial diffusion model.

q-fin.ST

PDSim: A Shiny App for Simulating and Estimating Polynomial Diffusion Models in Commodity Futures

PDSim is an R package that enables users to simulate commodity futures prices using the polynomial diffusion model introduced in Filipovic & Larsson (2016) through both a Shiny web application and R scripts. For user-supplied data, a standalone R routine has been developed to provide joint estimation of state variables and model parameters via the Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) or Unscented Kalman Filter (UKF). With its user-friendly interface, PDSim makes the features of simulations and estimations accessible. To date, it is the only package specifically designed for the simulation and estimation of the polynomial diffusion model. The Schwartz-Smith two-factor model (Schwartz & Smith, 2000) is also available within this package for both simulation and calibration. The package is validated through several tests, including replication of the results in Schwartz & Smith (2000), unit testing of the coverage rate, and verification of the outputs of the main functions.

q-fin.ST

State-Space Dynamic Functional Regression for Multicurve Fixed Income Spread Analysis and Stress Testing

The Nelson-Siegel model is widely used in fixed income markets to produce yield curve dynamics. The multiple time-dependent parameter model conveniently addresses the level, slope, and curvature dynamics of the yield curves. In this study, we present a novel state-space functional regression model that incorporates a dynamic Nelson-Siegel model and functional regression formulations applied to multi-economy setting. This framework offers distinct advantages in explaining the relative spreads in yields between a reference economy and a response economy. To address the inherent challenges of model calibration, a kernel principal component analysis is employed to transform the representation of functional regression into a finite-dimensional, tractable estimation problem. A comprehensive empirical analysis is conducted to assess the efficacy of the functional regression approach, including an in-sample performance comparison with the dynamic Nelson-Siegel model. We conducted the stress testing analysis of yield curves term-structure within a dual economy framework. The bond ladder portfolio was examined through a case study focused on spread modelling using historical data for US Treasury and UK bonds.

q-fin.ST

On Modelling of Crude Oil Futures in a Bivariate State-Space Framework

We study a bivariate latent factor model for the pricing of commodity fu- tures. The two unobservable state variables representing the short and long term fac- tors are modelled as Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) processes. The Kalman Filter (KF) algorithm has been implemented to estimate the unobservable factors as well as unknown model parameters. The estimates of model parameters were obtained by maximising a Gaussian likelihood function. The algorithm has been applied to WTI Crude Oil NYMEX futures data.

q-fin.ST

On the Parameter Estimation in the Schwartz-Smiths Two-Factor Model

The two unobservable state variables representing the short and long term factors introduced by Schwartz and Smith in [16] for risk-neutral pricing of futures contracts are modelled as two correlated Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes. The Kalman Filter (KF) method has been implemented to estimate the short and long term factors jointly with un- known model parameters. The parameter identification problem arising within the likelihood function in the KF has been addressed by introduc- ing an additional constraint. The obtained model parameter estimates are the conditional Maximum Likelihood Estimators (MLEs) evaluated within the KF. Consistency of the conditional MLEs is studied. The methodology has been tested on simulated data.

q-fin.ST

Generalized phase-sensitivity of directional bond-breaking in laser-molecule interaction

We establish a generalized picture of the phase-sensitivity of laser-induced directional bond-breaking using the H$_2$ molecule as the example. We show that the well-known proton ejection anisotropy measured with few-cycle pulses arises as an amplitude-modulation of an intrinsic anisotropy that is sensitive to the laser phase at the ionization time and determined by the molecule's electronic structure. Our work furthermore reveals a strong electron-proton correlation that may open up a new approach to experimentally accessing the laser-sub-cycle intramolecular electron dynamics also in large molecules.

physics.chem-ph