arXiv subjects

Peter Flach

Publications and source records attributed to Peter Flach.

34 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2020

Model-Based Reinforcement Learning for Type 1Diabetes Blood Glucose Control

In this paper we investigate the use of model-based reinforcement learning to assist people with Type 1 Diabetes with insulin dose decisions. The proposed architecture consists of multiple Echo State Networks to predict blood glucose levels combined with Model Predictive Controller for planning. Echo State Network is a version of recurrent neural networks which allows us to learn long term dependencies in the input of time series data in an online manner. Additionally, we address the quantification of uncertainty for a more robust control. Here, we used ensembles of Echo State Networks to capture model (epistemic) uncertainty. We evaluated the approach with the FDA-approved UVa/Padova Type 1 Diabetes simulator and compared the results against baseline algorithms such as Basal-Bolus controller and Deep Q-learning. The results suggest that the model-based reinforcement learning algorithm can perform equally or better than the baseline algorithms for the majority of virtual Type 1 Diabetes person profiles tested.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

FACE: Feasible and Actionable Counterfactual Explanations

Work in Counterfactual Explanations tends to focus on the principle of "the closest possible world" that identifies small changes leading to the desired outcome. In this paper we argue that while this approach might initially seem intuitively appealing it exhibits shortcomings not addressed in the current literature. First, a counterfactual example generated by the state-of-the-art systems is not necessarily representative of the underlying data distribution, and may therefore prescribe unachievable goals(e.g., an unsuccessful life insurance applicant with severe disability may be advised to do more sports). Secondly, the counterfactuals may not be based on a "feasible path" between the current state of the subject and the suggested one, making actionable recourse infeasible (e.g., low-skilled unsuccessful mortgage applicants may be told to double their salary, which may be hard without first increasing their skill level). These two shortcomings may render counterfactual explanations impractical and sometimes outright offensive. To address these two major flaws, first of all, we propose a new line of Counterfactual Explanations research aimed at providing actionable and feasible paths to transform a selected instance into one that meets a certain goal. Secondly, we propose FACE: an algorithmically sound way of uncovering these "feasible paths" based on the shortest path distances defined via density-weighted metrics. Our approach generates counterfactuals that are coherent with the underlying data distribution and supported by the "feasible paths" of change, which are achievable and can be tailored to the problem at hand.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

One Explanation Does Not Fit All: The Promise of Interactive Explanations for Machine Learning Transparency

The need for transparency of predictive systems based on Machine Learning algorithms arises as a consequence of their ever-increasing proliferation in the industry. Whenever black-box algorithmic predictions influence human affairs, the inner workings of these algorithms should be scrutinised and their decisions explained to the relevant stakeholders, including the system engineers, the system's operators and the individuals whose case is being decided. While a variety of interpretability and explainability methods is available, none of them is a panacea that can satisfy all diverse expectations and competing objectives that might be required by the parties involved. We address this challenge in this paper by discussing the promises of Interactive Machine Learning for improved transparency of black-box systems using the example of contrastive explanations -- a state-of-the-art approach to Interpretable Machine Learning. Specifically, we show how to personalise counterfactual explanations by interactively adjusting their conditional statements and extract additional explanations by asking follow-up "What if?" questions. Our experience in building, deploying and presenting this type of system allowed us to list desired properties as well as potential limitations, which can be used to guide the development of interactive explainers. While customising the medium of interaction, i.e., the user interface comprising of various communication channels, may give an impression of personalisation, we argue that adjusting the explanation itself and its content is more important. To this end, properties such as breadth, scope, context, purpose and target of the explanation have to be considered, in addition to explicitly informing the explainee about its limitations and caveats...

cs.LG↗

arXiv2019

Explainability Fact Sheets: A Framework for Systematic Assessment of Explainable Approaches

Explanations in Machine Learning come in many forms, but a consensus regarding their desired properties is yet to emerge. In this paper we introduce a taxonomy and a set of descriptors that can be used to characterise and systematically assess explainable systems along five key dimensions: functional, operational, usability, safety and validation. In order to design a comprehensive and representative taxonomy and associated descriptors we surveyed the eXplainable Artificial Intelligence literature, extracting the criteria and desiderata that other authors have proposed or implicitly used in their research. The survey includes papers introducing new explainability algorithms to see what criteria are used to guide their development and how these algorithms are evaluated, as well as papers proposing such criteria from both computer science and social science perspectives. This novel framework allows to systematically compare and contrast explainability approaches, not just to better understand their capabilities but also to identify discrepancies between their theoretical qualities and properties of their implementations. We developed an operationalisation of the framework in the form of Explainability Fact Sheets, which enable researchers and practitioners alike to quickly grasp capabilities and limitations of a particular explainable method. When used as a Work Sheet, our taxonomy can guide the development of new explainability approaches by aiding in their critical evaluation along the five proposed dimensions.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2019

bLIMEy: Surrogate Prediction Explanations Beyond LIME

Surrogate explainers of black-box machine learning predictions are of paramount importance in the field of eXplainable Artificial Intelligence since they can be applied to any type of data (images, text and tabular), are model-agnostic and are post-hoc (i.e., can be retrofitted). The Local Interpretable Model-agnostic Explanations (LIME) algorithm is often mistakenly unified with a more general framework of surrogate explainers, which may lead to a belief that it is the solution to surrogate explainability. In this paper we empower the community to "build LIME yourself" (bLIMEy) by proposing a principled algorithmic framework for building custom local surrogate explainers of black-box model predictions, including LIME itself. To this end, we demonstrate how to decompose the surrogate explainers family into algorithmically independent and interoperable modules and discuss the influence of these component choices on the functional capabilities of the resulting explainer, using the example of LIME.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2019

Beyond temperature scaling: Obtaining well-calibrated multiclass probabilities with Dirichlet calibration

Class probabilities predicted by most multiclass classifiers are uncalibrated, often tending towards over-confidence. With neural networks, calibration can be improved by temperature scaling, a method to learn a single corrective multiplicative factor for inputs to the last softmax layer. On non-neural models the existing methods apply binary calibration in a pairwise or one-vs-rest fashion. We propose a natively multiclass calibration method applicable to classifiers from any model class, derived from Dirichlet distributions and generalising the beta calibration method from binary classification. It is easily implemented with neural nets since it is equivalent to log-transforming the uncalibrated probabilities, followed by one linear layer and softmax. Experiments demonstrate improved probabilistic predictions according to multiple measures (confidence-ECE, classwise-ECE, log-loss, Brier score) across a wide range of datasets and classifiers. Parameters of the learned Dirichlet calibration map provide insights to the biases in the uncalibrated model.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2019

HyperStream: a Workflow Engine for Streaming Data

This paper describes HyperStream, a large-scale, flexible and robust software package, written in the Python language, for processing streaming data with workflow creation capabilities. HyperStream overcomes the limitations of other computational engines and provides high-level interfaces to execute complex nesting, fusion, and prediction both in online and offline forms in streaming environments. HyperStream is a general purpose tool that is well-suited for the design, development, and deployment of Machine Learning algorithms and predictive models in a wide space of sequential predictive problems. Source code, installation instructions, examples, and documentation can be found at: https://github.com/IRC-SPHERE/HyperStream.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2019

$β^3$-IRT: A New Item Response Model and its Applications

Item Response Theory (IRT) aims to assess latent abilities of respondents based on the correctness of their answers in aptitude test items with different difficulty levels. In this paper, we propose the $β^3$-IRT model, which models continuous responses and can generate a much enriched family of Item Characteristic Curve (ICC). In experiments we applied the proposed model to data from an online exam platform, and show our model outperforms a more standard 2PL-ND model on all datasets. Furthermore, we show how to apply $β^3$-IRT to assess the ability of machine learning classifiers. This novel application results in a new metric for evaluating the quality of the classifier's probability estimates, based on the inferred difficulty and discrimination of data instances.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2019

Distribution Calibration for Regression

We are concerned with obtaining well-calibrated output distributions from regression models. Such distributions allow us to quantify the uncertainty that the model has regarding the predicted target value. We introduce the novel concept of distribution calibration, and demonstrate its advantages over the existing definition of quantile calibration. We further propose a post-hoc approach to improving the predictions from previously trained regression models, using multi-output Gaussian Processes with a novel Beta link function. The proposed method is experimentally verified on a set of common regression models and shows improvements for both distribution-level and quantile-level calibration.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2018

Non-Parametric Calibration of Probabilistic Regression

The task of calibration is to retrospectively adjust the outputs from a machine learning model to provide better probability estimates on the target variable. While calibration has been investigated thoroughly in classification, it has not yet been well-established for regression tasks. This paper considers the problem of calibrating a probabilistic regression model to improve the estimated probability densities over the real-valued targets. We propose to calibrate a regression model through the cumulative probability density, which can be derived from calibrating a multi-class classifier. We provide three non-parametric approaches to solve the problem, two of which provide empirical estimates and the third providing smooth density estimates. The proposed approaches are experimentally evaluated to show their ability to improve the performance of regression models on the predictive likelihood.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2017

CASP-DM: Context Aware Standard Process for Data Mining

We propose an extension of the Cross Industry Standard Process for Data Mining (CRISPDM) which addresses specific challenges of machine learning and data mining for context and model reuse handling. This new general context-aware process model is mapped with CRISP-DM reference model proposing some new or enhanced outputs.

cs.DB↗

arXiv2017

Probabilistic Sensor Fusion for Ambient Assisted Living

There is a widely-accepted need to revise current forms of health-care provision, with particular interest in sensing systems in the home. Given a multiple-modality sensor platform with heterogeneous network connectivity, as is under development in the Sensor Platform for HEalthcare in Residential Environment (SPHERE) Interdisciplinary Research Collaboration (IRC), we face specific challenges relating to the fusion of the heterogeneous sensor modalities. We introduce Bayesian models for sensor fusion, which aims to address the challenges of fusion of heterogeneous sensor modalities. Using this approach we are able to identify the modalities that have most utility for each particular activity, and simultaneously identify which features within that activity are most relevant for a given activity. We further show how the two separate tasks of location prediction and activity recognition can be fused into a single model, which allows for simultaneous learning an prediction for both tasks. We analyse the performance of this model on data collected in the SPHERE house, and show its utility. We also compare against some benchmark models which do not have the full structure,and show how the proposed model compares favourably to these methods

stat.ML↗

arXiv2016

The SPHERE Challenge: Activity Recognition with Multimodal Sensor Data

This paper outlines the Sensor Platform for HEalthcare in Residential Environment (SPHERE) project and details the SPHERE challenge that will take place in conjunction with European Conference on Machine Learning and Principles and Practice of Knowledge Discovery (ECML-PKDD) between March and July 2016. The SPHERE challenge is an activity recognition competition where predictions are made from video, accelerometer and environmental sensors. Monetary prizes will be awarded to the top three entrants, with Euro 1,000 being awarded to the winner, Euro 600 being awarded to the first runner up, and Euro 400 being awarded to the second runner up.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2012

Threshold Choice Methods: the Missing Link

Many performance metrics have been introduced for the evaluation of classification performance, with different origins and niches of application: accuracy, macro-accuracy, area under the ROC curve, the ROC convex hull, the absolute error, and the Brier score (with its decomposition into refinement and calibration). One way of understanding the relation among some of these metrics is the use of variable operating conditions (either in the form of misclassification costs or class proportions). Thus, a metric may correspond to some expected loss over a range of operating conditions. One dimension for the analysis has been precisely the distribution we take for this range of operating conditions, leading to some important connections in the area of proper scoring rules. However, we show that there is another dimension which has not received attention in the analysis of performance metrics. This new dimension is given by the decision rule, which is typically implemented as a threshold choice method when using scoring models. In this paper, we explore many old and new threshold choice methods: fixed, score-uniform, score-driven, rate-driven and optimal, among others. By calculating the loss of these methods for a uniform range of operating conditions we get the 0-1 loss, the absolute error, the Brier score (mean squared error), the AUC and the refinement loss respectively. This provides a comprehensive view of performance metrics as well as a systematic approach to loss minimisation, namely: take a model, apply several threshold choice methods consistent with the information which is (and will be) available about the operating condition, and compare their expected losses. In order to assist in this procedure we also derive several connections between the aforementioned performance metrics, and we highlight the role of calibration in choosing the threshold choice method.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2011

Generic Multiplicative Methods for Implementing Machine Learning Algorithms on MapReduce

In this paper we introduce a generic model for multiplicative algorithms which is suitable for the MapReduce parallel programming paradigm. We implement three typical machine learning algorithms to demonstrate how similarity comparison, gradient descent, power method and other classic learning techniques fit this model well. Two versions of large-scale matrix multiplication are discussed in this paper, and different methods are developed for both cases with regard to their unique computational characteristics and problem settings. In contrast to earlier research, we focus on fundamental linear algebra techniques that establish a generic approach for a range of algorithms, rather than specific ways of scaling up algorithms one at a time. Experiments show promising results when evaluated on both speedup and accuracy. Compared with a standard implementation with computational complexity $O(m^3)$ in the worst case, the large-scale matrix multiplication experiments prove our design is considerably more efficient and maintains a good speedup as the number of cores increases. Algorithm-specific experiments also produce encouraging results on runtime performance.

cs.DS↗

arXiv2011

Technical Note: Towards ROC Curves in Cost Space

ROC curves and cost curves are two popular ways of visualising classifier performance, finding appropriate thresholds according to the operating condition, and deriving useful aggregated measures such as the area under the ROC curve (AUC) or the area under the optimal cost curve. In this note we present some new findings and connections between ROC space and cost space, by using the expected loss over a range of operating conditions. In particular, we show that ROC curves can be transferred to cost space by means of a very natural way of understanding how thresholds should be chosen, by selecting the threshold such that the proportion of positive predictions equals the operating condition (either in the form of cost proportion or skew). We call these new curves {ROC Cost Curves}, and we demonstrate that the expected loss as measured by the area under these curves is linearly related to AUC. This opens up a series of new possibilities and clarifies the notion of cost curve and its relation to ROC analysis. In addition, we show that for a classifier that assigns the scores in an evenly-spaced way, these curves are equal to the Brier Curves. As a result, this establishes the first clear connection between AUC and the Brier score.

cs.AI↗