arXiv subjects

Peter Palensky

Publications and source records attributed to Peter Palensky.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

A Dynamic Capacity Allocation Model for DERs under Non-Firm Connection Agreements

The growing penetration of distributed energy resources (DERs) intensifies congestion in distribution networks by introducing bidirectional power flows and increasing competition for limited network capacity, underscoring the need for effective and efficient congestion management, including flexible grid-access schemes. This paper proposes a bilevel optimization model for the dynamic allocation of connection capacity to DERs under non-firm connection agreements, aligning the objectives of distribution system operator (DSO) and DER owners. The upper-level problem, representing the DSO, determines the allocated connection capacity for all DERs, defined as maximum time-varying power limits, subject to distribution system constraints and the last-in-first-out (LIFO) allocation rule. The lower-level problem, representing DER owners, maximizes the profit of each DER within the allocated power limits. The proposed model is tested on a modified CIGRE medium-voltage (MV) network, demonstrating a balanced trade-off between grid utilization and economic efficiency. Furthermore, the model enhances DER integration, enforces transparent allocation rules, reduces variability in allocation patterns, and achieves up to an 80% reduction in total curtailment costs compared with benchmark methods.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2026

A Market-Rule-Informed Neural Network for Efficient Imbalance Electricity Price Forecasting

Accurate and efficient imbalance electricity price forecasting is critical for industrial energy trading systems, especially as battery assets and automated bidding pipelines increasingly participate in balancing markets. However, real-time forecasting is complicated by nonlinear market-rule-based price formation, heterogeneous input signals, and incomplete data availability caused by communication delays, publication lags, and measurement outages. This paper proposes a market-rule-informed neural forecasting framework that embeds imbalance price formation rules into the latent space of an expressive neural network. The proposed framework preserves raw signal information while exploiting transparent market-rule priors. We further analyze operational robustness by removing price-component information and characterize how forecasting performance scales with input length and forecasting horizon. Experimental results show that the proposed model achieves competitive forecasting performance with substantially fewer trainable parameters and shorter training time than generic deep learning baselines. Experimental results show that the proposed model achieves competitive forecasting performance with substantially fewer trainable parameters and shorter training time than generic deep learning baselines, demonstrating that market-rule priors and expressive neural networks should be jointly used for accurate and computationally sustainable forecasting in industrial energy trading applications. The implementation is publicly available at https://runyao-yu.github.io/MRINN/.

q-fin.CP↗

arXiv2026

Robust Operation of Distribution Networks: Generalized Uncertainty Modelling in Confidence-Level-Based Information Gap Decision

This paper studies the robust optimal operation of distribution networks (DNs) under renewable generation and load demand uncertainties, seeking an improved trade-off between robustness and economic performance. Building upon information gap decision theory (IGDT), a generalized uncertainty modelling is proposed to enhance the expressiveness of the uncertainty characterization. The proposed modelling captures both symmetric and asymmetric uncertainty features, and supports linear or nonlinear expansion of the uncertainty sets driven by confidence level. This advancement leads to the development of a confidence-level-based IGDT (CL-IGDT) framework for DN operation. To solve the resulting model, its equivalence to a family of two-stage robust optimization problems (TSROs) is established, enabling a Fibonacci search over the confidence level. To further improve computational efficiency, a cut-recycling strategy is proposed to exploit invariant information across TSROs. These techniques are integrated into a novel Fibonacci-Parametric Column-and-Constraint Generation algorithm with guaranteed asymptotic convergence. Case studies validate the effectiveness of the proposed framework and demonstrate the performance advantages of the proposed algorithm.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2026

Estimating Density Functions for Probabilistic Power Flow Using Invertible Neural Networks

Probabilistic power flow (PPF) is essential for quantifying operational uncertainty in modern power systems with high penetrations of renewable generation and flexible loads. Conventional PPF methods primarily rely on Monte Carlo (MC)- based power flow (PF) simulations or simplified approximations of voltage probability density functions. Although MC methods provide high accuracy, they incur substantial computational and data-storage costs, whereas simplified approximations often sacrifice accuracy. In this paper, we propose a novel PPF density approximation framework that avoids repeated PF simulations during inference and can, in principle, approximate complex voltage distributions without restrictive distributional assumptions. The core idea is to learn an explicit invertible mapping between stochastic power injections and system voltages using invertible neural networks (INNs). By combining this mapping with the change-of-variables theorem, the proposed framework directly evaluates voltage probability densities without repeatedly solving the PF equations. Extensive numerical studies demonstrate that the proposed framework achieves state-of-the-art performance both as an accurate PF surrogate and as an efficient PPF density estimator.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2026

Topology-Aware Graph Reinforcement Learning for Energy Storage Systems Optimal Dispatch in Distribution Networks

Optimal dispatch of energy storage systems (ESSs) in distribution networks involves jointly improving operating economy and voltage security under time-varying conditions and possible topology changes. To support fast online decision making, we develop a topology-aware Reinforcement Learning architecture based on Twin Delayed Deep Deterministic Policy Gradient (TD3), which integrates graph neural networks (GNNs) as graph feature encoders for ESS dispatch. We conduct a systematic investigation of three GNN variants: graph convolutional networks (GCNs), topology adaptive graph convolutional networks (TAGConv), and graph attention networks (GATs) on the 34-bus and 69-bus systems, and evaluate robustness under multiple topology reconfiguration cases as well as cross-system transfer between networks with different system sizes. Results show that GNN-based controllers consistently reduce the number and magnitude of voltage violations, with clearer benefits on the 69-bus system and under reconfiguration; on the 69-bus system, TD3-GCN and TD3-TAGConv also achieve lower saved cost relative to the NLP benchmark than the NN baseline. We also highlight that transfer gains are case-dependent, and zero-shot transfer between fundamentally different systems results in notable performance degradation and increased voltage magnitude violations. This work is available at: https://github.com/ShuyiGao/GNNs_RL_ESSs and https://github.com/distributionnetworksTUDelft/GNNs_RL_ESSs.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Probabilistic Hysteresis Factor Prediction for Electric Vehicle Batteries with Graphite Anodes Containing Silicon

Batteries with silicon-graphite-based anodes, which offer higher energy density and improved charging performance, introduce pronounced voltage hysteresis, making state-of-charge (SoC) estimation particularly challenging. Existing approaches to modeling hysteresis rely on exhaustive high-fidelity tests or focus on conventional graphite-based lithium-ion batteries, without considering uncertainty quantification or computational constraints. This work introduces a data-driven approach for probabilistic hysteresis factor prediction, with a particular emphasis on applications involving silicon-graphite anode-based batteries. A data harmonization framework is proposed to standardize heterogeneous driving cycles across varying operating conditions. Statistical learning and deep learning models are applied to assess performance in predicting the hysteresis factor with uncertainties while considering computational efficiency. Extensive experiments are conducted to evaluate the generalizability of the optimal model configuration in unseen vehicle models through retraining, zero-shot prediction, fine-tuning, and joint training. By addressing key challenges in SoC estimation, this research facilitates the adoption of advanced battery technologies. A summary page is available at: https://runyao-yu.github.io/Porsche_Hysteresis_Factor_Prediction/

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

SmartMeterFM: Unifying Smart Meter Data Generative Tasks Using Flow Matching Models

Smart meter data is the foundation for planning and operating the distribution network. Unfortunately, such data are not always available due to privacy regulations. Meanwhile, the collected data may be corrupted due to sensor or transmission failure, or it may not have sufficient resolution for downstream tasks. A wide range of generative tasks is formulated to address these issues, including synthetic data generation, missing data imputation, and super-resolution. Despite the success of machine learning models on these tasks, dedicated models need to be designed and trained for each task, leading to redundancy and inefficiency. In this paper, by recognizing the powerful modeling capability of flow matching models, we propose a new approach to unify diverse smart meter data generative tasks with a single model trained for conditional generation. The proposed flow matching models are trained to generate challenging, high-dimensional time series data, specifically monthly smart meter data at a 15 min resolution. By viewing different generative tasks as distinct forms of partial data observations and injecting them into the generation process, we unify tasks such as imputation and super-resolution with a single model, eliminating the need for re-training. The data generated by our model not only are consistent with the given observations but also remain realistic, showing better performance against interpolation and other machine learning based baselines dedicated to the tasks.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Distributed Reinforcement Learning using Local Smart Meter Data for Voltage Regulation in Distribution Networks

Centralised reinforcement learning (RL) for voltage magnitude regulation in distribution networks typically involves numerous agent-environment interactions and power flow (PF) calculations, inducing computational overhead and privacy concerns over shared data. Thus, we propose a distributed RL algorithm to regulate voltage magnitude. First, a dynamic Thevenin equivalent model is integrated within smart meters (SM), enabling local voltage magnitude estimation using local SM data for RL agent training, and mitigating the dependency of synchronised data collection and centralised PF calculations. To mitigate estimation errors induced by Thevenin model inaccuracies, a voltage magnitude correction strategy that combines piecewise functions and neural networks is introduced. The piecewise function corrects the large errors of estimated voltage magnitude, while a neural network mimics the grid's sensitivity to control actions, improving action adjustment precision. Second, a coordination strategy is proposed to refine local RL agent actions online, preventing voltage magnitude violations induced by excessive actions from multiple independently trained agents. Case studies on energy storage systems validate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed approach, demonstrating its potential to improve voltage regulation in distribution networks.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2025

Quantum-Enhanced Reinforcement Learning for Accelerating Newton-Raphson Convergence with Ising Machines: A Case Study for Power Flow Analysis

The Newton-Raphson (NR) method is widely used for solving power flow (PF) equations due to its quadratic convergence. However, its performance deteriorates under poor initialization or extreme operating scenarios, e.g., high levels of renewable energy penetration. Traditional NR initialization strategies often fail to address these challenges, resulting in slow convergence or even divergence. We propose the use of reinforcement learning (RL) to optimize the initialization of NR, and introduce a novel quantum-enhanced RL environment update mechanism to mitigate the significant computational cost of evaluating power system states over a combinatorially large action space at each RL timestep by formulating the voltage adjustment task as a quadratic unconstrained binary optimization problem. Specifically, quantum/digital annealers are integrated into the RL environment update to evaluate state transitions using a problem Hamiltonian designed for PF. Results demonstrate significant improvements in convergence speed, a reduction in NR iteration counts, and enhanced robustness under different operating conditions.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2025

Transferable Graph Learning for Transmission Congestion Management via Busbar Splitting

Network topology optimization (NTO) via busbar splitting can mitigate transmission grid congestion and reduce redispatch costs. However, solving this mixed-integer nonlinear problem for large-scale systems in near-real-time is currently intractable with existing solvers. Machine learning (ML) approaches have emerged as a promising alternative, but they have limited generalization to unseen topologies, varying operating conditions, and different systems, which limits their practical applicability. This paper formulates NTO for congestion management considering linearized AC power flow, and proposes a graph neural network (GNN)-accelerated approach. We develop a heterogeneous edge-aware message passing GNN to predict effective nodes for busbar splitting actions as candidate NTO solutions. The proposed GNN captures local flow patterns, improves generalization to unseen topology changes, and enhances transferability across systems. Case studies show up to 4 orders-of-magnitude speed-up, delivering AC-feasible solutions within one minute and a 2.3% optimality gap on the GOC 2000-bus system. These results demonstrate a significant step toward near-real-time NTO for large-scale systems with topology and cross-system generalization.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2025

Physics-Informed Reinforcement Learning for Large-Scale EV Smart Charging Considering Distribution Network Voltage Constraints

Electric Vehicles (EVs) offer substantial flexibility for grid services, yet large-scale, uncoordinated charging can threaten voltage stability in distribution networks. Existing Reinforcement Learning (RL) approaches for smart charging often disregard physical grid constraints or have limited performance for complex large-scale tasks, limiting their scalability and real-world applicability. This paper introduces a physics-informed (PI) RL algorithm that integrates a differentiable power flow model and voltage-based reward design into the Twin Delayed Deep Deterministic Policy Gradient (TD3) algorithm, enabling EVs to deliver real-time voltage support while meeting user demands. The resulting PI-TD3 algorithm achieves faster convergence, improved sample efficiency, and reliable voltage magnitude regulation under uncertain and overloaded conditions. Benchmarks on the IEEE 34-bus and 123-bus networks show that the proposed PI-TD3 outperforms both model-free RL and optimization-based baselines in grid constraint management, user satisfaction, and economic metrics, even as the system scales to hundreds of EVs. These advances enable robust, scalable, and practical EV charging strategies that enhance grid resilience and support distribution networks operation.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2025

A Flow-Based Model for Conditional and Probabilistic Electricity Consumption Profile Generation and Prediction

Residential Load Profile (RLP) generation and prediction are critical for the operation and planning of distribution networks, especially as diverse low-carbon technologies (e.g., photovoltaic and electric vehicles) are increasingly adopted. This paper introduces a novel flow-based generative model, termed Full Convolutional Profile Flow (FCPFlow), which is uniquely designed for both conditional and unconditional RLP generation, and for probabilistic load forecasting. By introducing two new layers--the invertible linear layer and the invertible normalization layer--the proposed FCPFlow architecture shows three main advantages compared to traditional statistical and contemporary deep generative models: 1) it is well-suited for RLP generation under continuous conditions, such as varying weather and annual electricity consumption, 2) it demonstrates superior scalability in different datasets compared to traditional statistical models, and 3) it also demonstrates better modeling capabilities in capturing the complex correlation of RLPs compared with deep generative models.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Performance Comparison of Gate-Based and Adiabatic Quantum Computing for AC Power Flow Problem

We present the first direct comparison between gate-based quantum computing (GQC) and adiabatic quantum computing (AQC) paradigms for solving the AC power flow (PF) equations. The PF problem is reformulated as a combinatorial optimization problem. For the GQC approach, the Quantum Approximate Optimization Algorithm (QAOA) is employed, while for the AQC approach, the problem is formulated as an Ising model. Numerical experiments on a 4-bus test system evaluate solution accuracy and computational performance. Results obtained using QAOA are benchmarked against those produced by D-Wave's Advantage system and Fujitsu's latest-generation Digital Annealer, implemented through the Quantum-Inspired Integrated Optimization (QIIO) software. The findings provide quantitative insights into the performance trade-offs, scalability, and practical viability of GQC and AQC paradigms for PF analysis, highlighting the potential of quantum optimization algorithms to address the computational challenges associated with the operation of modern electricity grids in the fault-tolerant era.

quant-ph↗

arXiv2025

The Living Forecast: Evolving Day-Ahead Predictions into Intraday Reality

Accurate intraday forecasts are essential for power system operations, complementing day-ahead forecasts that gradually lose relevance as new information becomes available. This paper introduces a Bayesian updating mechanism that converts fully probabilistic day-ahead forecasts into intraday forecasts without retraining or re-inference. The approach conditions the Gaussian mixture output of a conditional variational autoencoder-based forecaster on observed measurements, yielding an updated distribution for the remaining horizon that preserves its probabilistic structure. This enables consistent point, quantile, and ensemble forecasts while remaining computationally efficient and suitable for real-time applications. Experiments on household electricity consumption and photovoltaic generation datasets demonstrate that the proposed method improves forecast accuracy up to 25% across likelihood-, sample-, quantile-, and point-based metrics. The largest gains occur in time steps with strong temporal correlation to observed data, and the use of pattern dictionary-based covariance structures further enhances performance. The results highlight a theoretically grounded framework for intraday forecasting in modern power systems.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2025

GNN-DT: Graph Neural Network Enhanced Decision Transformer for Efficient Optimization in Dynamic Environments

Reinforcement Learning (RL) methods used for solving real-world optimization problems often involve dynamic state-action spaces, larger scale, and sparse rewards, leading to significant challenges in convergence, scalability, and efficient exploration of the solution space. This study introduces GNN-DT, a novel Decision Transformer (DT) architecture that integrates Graph Neural Network (GNN) embedders with a novel residual connection between input and output tokens crucial for handling dynamic environments. By learning from previously collected trajectories, GNN-DT tackles the sparse rewards limitations of online RL algorithms and delivers high-quality solutions in real-time. We evaluate GNN-DT on the complex electric vehicle (EV) charging optimization problem and prove that its performance is superior and requires significantly fewer training trajectories, thus improving sample efficiency compared to existing DT and offline RL baselines. Furthermore, GNN-DT exhibits robust generalization to unseen environments and larger action spaces, addressing a critical gap in prior offline and online RL approaches.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

A data-driven approach for topology correction in low voltage distribution networks with PVs

Most existing phase balancing and topology reconfiguration problems are formulated as mixed-integer optimization problems that depend on network topologies~\cite{10098964,11017695,10571996}. However, these topologies are often inaccurate and outdated for distribution system operators~(DSOs) due to missing recordings, topology maintenance and reconfiguration, such as congestion management ~\cite{vanin2024phase}. Thus, the topology of the low-voltage distribution network (LVDN) needs to be checked and corrected when it is outdated. The increasing uncertainty of distributed energy resources (DERs), including household photovoltaic (PV), heating pumps, etc., impacts the frequency of topology reconfiguration and challenges the correction of the low-voltage distribution network topology~\cite{10026490, 10347462, 10475702}. Moreover, the available smart meter (SM) datasets are often limited due to privacy concerns and random communication channel failure, challenging the topology correction~\cite{9696306, costa2022identification, dande2025consumer}. Synthetic European networks and benchmark models presented in~\cite{birchfield2016grid,2020Non} are benchmarks for research but insufficient to represent the diversity of European LVDNs for practical use by DSOs (e.g., state estimation). Thus, practical topology identification and correction approaches are required for real-time topology updating for active management of LVDNs.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2025

EnergyDiff: Universal Time-Series Energy Data Generation using Diffusion Models

High-resolution time series data are crucial for the operation and planning of energy systems such as electrical power systems and heating systems. Such data often cannot be shared due to privacy concerns, necessitating the use of synthetic data. However, high-resolution time series data is difficult to model due to its inherent high dimensionality and complex temporal dependencies. Leveraging the recent development of generative AI, especially diffusion models, we propose EnergyDiff, a universal data generation framework for energy time series data. EnergyDiff builds on state-of-the-art denoising diffusion probabilistic models, utilizing a proposed denoising network dedicated to high-resolution time series data and introducing a novel Marginal Calibration technique. Our extensive experimental results demonstrate that EnergyDiff achieves significant improvement in capturing the temporal dependencies and marginal distributions compared to baselines, particularly at the 1-minute resolution. EnergyDiff's universality is validated across diverse energy domains (e.g., electricity demand, heat pump, PV, multiple time resolutions (1 minute, 15 minutes, 30 minutes and 1 hour), and at both customer and transformer levels.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Power flow and optimal power flow using quantum and digital annealers: a computational scalability analysis

This study further explores reformulating power flow (PF) analysis as a discrete combinatorial optimization problem, proposed in our earlier study using the Adiabatic Quantum Power Flow (AQPF) algorithm, which can be executed on Ising machines, including quantum and quantum-inspired hardware. This approach provides a new representation of the underlying equations, analogous to how neural networks approximate complex functions using simple operations. While the resulting combinatorial optimization problem is NP-hard, it is compatible with emerging quantum hardware designed to address such complexity. We introduce the Adiabatic Quantum Optimal Power Flow (AQOPF) algorithm, which transforms the classical optimal power flow (OPF) equations into quadratic unconstrained binary optimization (QUBO) models. Furthermore, the AQPF and AQOPF algorithms are evaluated on standard test cases ranging from 4- to 1354-bus systems using D-Wave's Advantage\texttrademark\ system (QA), its hybrid quantum-classical solver (HA), and Fujitsu's third-generation Digital Annealer (DAv3) and Quantum-Inspired Integrated Optimization (QIIO) platform. Both full and partitioned formulations are investigated, with particular attention to scalability and robustness in ill-conditioned scenarios. The results demonstrate that the algorithms can reproduce feasible PF and OPF solutions and exhibit promising computational scalability when supported by scalable hardware.

eess.SY↗