arXiv subjects

Petr Pravec

Publications and source records attributed to Petr Pravec.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Rotation, spectral type, and albedo of the potentially hazardous asteroid (153814) 2001 WN$_{\text 5}$ Prior to the 2028 June close approach

The potentially hazardous asteroid (153814) 2001 WN$_5$ will pass inside the lunar distance on June 26, 2028, offering a rare opportunity to characterize a kilometer-scale near-Earth asteroid at high angular resolution. We aim to constrain the rotation state, shape, visible colors, geometric albedo, and taxonomy of 2001 WN$_5$ before its 2028 close approach. We combined new photometry from the 1.54 m Danish Telescope (DK154) with archival and survey observations from the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS), Dark Energy Camera (DECam), Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF), and the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS). These data were used to refine the rotation period, investigate the spin-shape solution space, derive visible colors, and estimate the geometric albedo from phase curve slopes. The available lightcurves do not uniquely constrain the sidereal rotation period, but the preferred pole solutions lie in the southern hemisphere in ecliptic coordinates. Visible colors from multiple independent datasets are consistent with the C-complex, while the TESS phase curve slopes give $p_{\rm V} = 0.13\pm0.04$, consistent with previous thermal-infrared albedo estimates. Combining the visible colors, albedo, and published near-infrared spectra, we classify 2001 WN$_5$ as most likely a B-type asteroid. The effective diameter is estimated to be $D = 0.81 \pm 0.13$ km using the $H$-$G$ model, while the linear model yields a slightly smaller value of $0.74 \pm 0.11$ km. During the 2028 encounter, 2001 WN$_5$ should reach an apparent diameter of about 0.5~arcsec, making it an excellent target for coordinated photometric, spectroscopic, and high-angular-resolution observations. Observations during the 2026-2027 apparition will be essential for improving its spin and shape model before its 2028 close approach.

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arXiv2026

JWST Observations of Asteroid 2024 YR4 Rule Out a 2032 Lunar Impact and Demonstrate a New Regime for Planetary Defense Follow-up

At the end of its discovery apparition, the $\sim$60 m near-Earth object 2024 YR4 was associated with a non-zero probability of lunar impact during its 2032 December 22 close approach. While posing no threat to Earth, a lunar impact of this scale could have consequences for Earth-orbiting infrastructure, as well as for human exploration on and around the Moon. We present new JWST/NIRCam observations from 2026 February 18 and 26 that extend the observational arc by eight months, reduce the uncertainty in the 2032 lunar encounter by a factor $>$30, and constitute the faintest detection of a near-Earth object to date, reaching $V \sim 30.5$ -- beyond the $V \sim 27$ ground-based limit. The updated orbit solution yields a predicted miss distance of $22{\,}900 \pm 800$ km (1$\sigma$) from the center of the Moon, thus ruling out a lunar impact. Despite challenges due to the limited number of reference stars and saturation and trailing effects, we derive astrometric positions with three independent analysis methods, demonstrating consistency at the $\lesssim$50 mas level. These observations extend the orbital arc at epochs when the object is not accessible from the ground, advancing the timeline for hazard assessment by two years relative to the next feasible ground-based recovery. This capability is critical in an emerging regime of planetary defense characterized by the discovery of decameter-scale objects by next-generation surveys. These objects are far more common but rapidly become inaccessible to ground-based follow-up. In this regime, hazard assessment can become follow-up-limited, requiring targeted space-based observations, such as those demonstrated here, to reliably constrain impact probabilities on operationally relevant timescales.

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arXiv2026

Astrometric follow-up of near-Earth asteroid 2024 YR4 during a Torino scale level 3 alert

The discovery of 2024 YR4 presented the planetary defense community with the most significant impact threat in almost two decades, reaching level 3 on the Torino scale. The community, now mature and well-organized, responded with a global observational effort. Astrometric measurements, forming the basis for orbital refinement and impact prediction, were a central component of this response. In this paper, we present the astrometric data collected by the international community, from the time of discovery until the object became too faint for all existing observational assets, including JWST. We also discuss the coordination role played by the International Asteroid Warning Network, and the importance of publicly available image archives to enable precovery searches.

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arXiv2026

A change of the rotation period of asteroid (65803) Didymos caused by the DART impact

On 26 September 2022, the NASA Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) spacecraft impacted Dimorphos, the secondary component of the binary asteroid (65803)~Didymos. This experiment tested the Kinetic Impactor technology for diverting dangerous asteroids. Due to the impact, the binary system's angular momentum has changed, resulting in a significant change in the orbital period of Dimorphos. Precise values of the pre- and post-impact orbital periods were derived from a large set of photometric light curves measured for the Didymos-Dimorphos system during six apparitions from 2003 to 2023. We used these data to detect a possible change in the rotation period of the primary as a consequence of the impact. We analyzed the binary system's light curves using the binary asteroid light curve decomposition method. We selected parts of the light curves covering orbital phases outside mutual events, which represent the primary rotational light curves. We applied the light curve inversion method to construct a convex shape model of Didymos and determine its rotation period before and after the impact. These two periods were treated as independent free parameters of the modeling. We found a value of 2.2603891 +/- 0.0000002 h for the pre-impact period and 2.260440 +/- 0.000008 h for the post-impact period. Their difference 0.18 +/- 0.03 s is small yet significant, indicating that the rotation of Didymos became slower after the DART impact. The most plausible physical explanation is Didymos's post-impact reshaping, making its shape more oblate.

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arXiv2025

Rapid-response characterization of near-Earth asteroid 2024 YR4 during a Torino Scale 3 alert

On 27 December 2024, near-Earth object (NEO) 2024 YR$_4$ was discovered by the ATLAS survey and identified as a virtual impactor. A few weeks later, it eventually reached level 3 on the Torino Scale and was the first and only asteroid to be ever classified at that level. Here we report an intensive observational campaign combining time-series photometry in the visible, broadband visible and near-infrared colors, and low-resolution visible reflectance spectroscopy to assess its physical properties. Fourier analysis of the lightcurves yields a synodic rotation period of $P = 19.46341 \pm 0.00008$ min, placing 2024 YR$_4$ among the fast rotators, even if such rotation is common for objects of similar $H$ magnitude. Its visible and near-infrared colors and spectra are most consistent with an Sq or K taxonomic classification, though some ambiguity remains. Finally, its phase curve exhibits a notably shallow slope ($G = 0.51 \pm 0.11$), from which we derive an absolute magnitude of $H_\mathrm{R} = 23.82\pm0.09$ mag. After color correction and taking into account other models for the phase function, we report an absolute magnitude of $H_\mathrm{V} = 24.14\pm0.25$ mag. These characterizations, rotation period, taxonomy, and surface properties, would have been crucial for risk assessment and mitigation planning had the initially high impact probability scenario been confirmed, underscoring the importance for planetary defense of a rapid, coordinated international response.

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arXiv2025

Shape and spin state model of contact binary (388188) 2006 DP14 using combined radar and optical observations

Contact binaries are found throughout the solar system. The recent discovery of Selam, the satellite of MBA (152830) Dinkinesh, by the NASA LUCY mission has made it clear that the term `contact binary' covers a variety of different types of bi-modal mass distributions and formation mechanisms. Only by modelling more contact binaries can this population be properly understood. We determined a spin state and shape model for the Apollo group contact binary asteroid (388188) 2006 DP14 using ground-based optical and radar observations collected between 2014 and 2023. Radar delay-Doppler images and continuous wave spectra were collected over two days in February 2014, while 16 lightcurves in the Cousins R and SDSS-r filters were collected in 2014, 2022 and 2023. We modelled the spin state using convex inversion before using the SHAPE modelling software to include the radar observations in modelling concavities and the distinctive neck structure connecting the two lobes. We find a spin state with a period of $(5.7860\pm0.0001)$ hours and pole solution of $\lambda = (180\pm121)^\circ$ and $\beta = (-80\pm7)^\circ$ with morphology indicating a 520 m long bi-lobed shape. The model's asymmetrical bi-modal mass distribution resembles other small NEA contact binaries such as (85990) 1999 JV6 or (8567) 1996 HW1, which also feature a smaller `head' attached to a larger `body'. The final model features a crater on the larger lobe, similar to several other modelled contact binaries. The model's resolution is 25 m, comparable to that of the radar images used.

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arXiv2025

The Dynamical State of the Didymos System Before and After the DART Impact

NASA's Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) spacecraft impacted Dimorphos, the natural satellite of (65803) Didymos, on 2022 September 26, as a first successful test of kinetic impactor technology for deflecting a potentially hazardous object in space. The experiment resulted in a small change to the dynamical state of the Didymos system consistent with expectations and Level 1 mission requirements. In the pre-encounter paper Richardson (2022), predictions were put forward regarding the pre- and post-impact dynamical state of the Didymos system. Here we assess these predictions, update preliminary findings published after the impact, report on new findings related to dynamics, and provide implications for ESA's Hera mission to Didymos, scheduled for launch in 2024 with arrival in late December 2026. Pre-encounter predictions tested to date are largely in line with observations, despite the unexpected, flattened appearance of Didymos compared to the radar model and the apparent pre-impact oblate shape of Dimorphos (with implications for the origin of the system that remain under investigation). New findings include that Dimorphos likely became prolate due to the impact and may have entered a tumbling rotation state. A possible detection of a post-impact transient secular decrease in the binary orbital period suggests possible dynamical coupling with persistent ejecta. Timescales for damping of any tumbling and clearing of any debris are uncertain. The largest uncertainty in the momentum transfer enhancement factor of the DART impact remains the mass of Dimorphos, which will be resolved by the Hera mission.

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arXiv2024

Debiasing astro-Photometric Observations with Corrections Using Statistics (DePhOCUS)

Photometric measurements allow the determination of an asteroid's absolute magnitude, which often represents the sole means to infer its size. Photometric observations can be obtained in a variety of filters that can be unique to a specific observatory. Those observations are then calibrated into specific bands with respect to reference star catalogs. In order to combine all the different measurements for evaluation, photometric observations need to be converted to a common band, typically V-band. Current band-correction schemes in use by IAU's Minor Planet Center, JPL's Center for Near Earth Object Studies and ESA's NEO Coordination Centre use average correction values for the apparent magnitude derived from photometry of asteroids as the corrections are dependent on the typically unknown spectrum of the object to be corrected. By statistically analyzing the photometric residuals of asteroids, we develop a new photometric correction scheme that does not only consider the band, but also accounts for reference catalog and observatory. We describe a new statistical photometry correction scheme for asteroid observations with debiased corrections. Testing this scheme on a reference group of asteroids, we see a 36% reduction in the photometric residuals. Moreover, the new scheme leads to a more accurate and debiased determination of the H-G magnitude system and, in turn, to more reliable inferred sizes. We discuss the significant shift in the corrections with this "DePhOCUS" debiasing system, its limitations, and the impact for photometric and physical properties of all asteroids, especially Near-Earth Objects.

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arXiv2024

An Earth Encounter As the Cause of Chaotic Dynamics in Binary Asteroid (35107) 1991VH

Among binary asteroids, (35107) 1991VH stands out as unique given the likely chaotic rotation within its secondary component. The source of this excited dynamical state is unknown. In this work we demonstrate that a past close encounter with Earth could have provided the necessary perturbation to allow the natural internal dynamics, characterized by spin-orbit coupling, to evolve the system into its current dynamical state. In this hypothesis, the secondary of 1991VH was previously in a classical 1:1 spin-orbit resonance with an orbit period likely between 28-35 hours before being perturbed by an Earth encounter within $\sim80,000$ km. We find if the energy dissipation within the secondary is relatively inefficient, this excited dynamical state could persist to today and produce the observed ground-based measurements. Coupled with the orbital history of 1991VH, we can then place a constraint on the tidal dissipation parameters of the secondary.

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arXiv2024

The Yarkovsky effect on the long-term evolution of binary asteroids

We explore the Yarkovsky effect on small binary asteroids. While significant attention has been given to the binary YORP effect, the Yarkovsky effect is often overlooked. We develop an analytical model for the binary Yarkovsky effect, considering both the Yarkovsky-Schach and planetary Yarkovsky components, and verify it against thermophysical numerical simulations. We find that the Yarkovsky force could change the mutual orbit when the asteroid's spin period is unequal to the orbital period. Our analysis predicts new evolutionary paths for binaries. For a prograde asynchronous secondary, the Yarkovsky force will migrate the satellite towards the location of the synchronous orbit on ~100 kyr timescales, which could be faster than other synchronization processes such as YORP and tides. For retrograde secondaries, the Yarkovsky force always migrates the secondary outwards, which could produce asteroid pairs with opposite spin poles. Satellites spinning faster than the Roche limit orbit period (e.g. from ~4h to ~10h) will migrate inwards until they disrupt, reshape, or form a contact binary. We also predict a short-lived equilibrium state for asynchronous secondaries where the Yarkovsky force is balanced by tides. We provide calculations of the Yarkovsky-induced drift rate for known asynchronous binaries. If the NASA DART impact broke Dimorphos from synchronous rotation, we predict that Dimorphos's orbit will shrink by \dot a ~ 7 cm/yr, which can be measured by the Hera mission. We also speculate that the Yarkovsky force may have synchronized the Dinkinesh-Selam system after a possible merger of Selam's two lobes.

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arXiv2024

Dimorphos orbit determination from mutual events photometry

The NASA Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) spacecraft successfully impacted the Didymos-Dimorphos binary asteroid system on 2022 September 26 UTC. We provide an update to its pre-impact mutual orbit and estimate the post-impact physical and orbital parameters, derived using ground-based photometric observations taken from July 2022 to February 2023. We found that the total change of the orbital period was $-33.240 \pm 0.072$ min. (all uncertainties are 3$σ$). We obtained the eccentricity of the post-impact orbit to be $0.028 \pm 0.016$ and the apsidal precession rate of $7.3 \pm 2.0$ deg./day from the impact to 2022 December 2. The data taken later in December to February suggest that the eccentricity dropped close to zero or the orbit became chaotic approximately 70 days after the impact. Most of the period change took place immediately after the impact but in a few weeks following the impact it was followed by additional change of $-27^{+19}_{-58}$ seconds or $-19 \pm 18$ seconds (the two values depend on the approach we used to describe the evolution of the orbital period after the impact -- an exponentially decreasing angular acceleration or an assumption of a constant orbital period, which changed abruptly some time after the impact, respectively). We estimate the pre-impact Dimorphos-Didymos size ratio was $0.223 \pm 0.012$ and the post-impact is $0.202 \pm 0.018$, which indicates a marginally significant reduction of Dimorphos' volume by ($9 \pm 9) \%$ as the result of the impact.

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arXiv2024

Direct $N$-body simulations of satellite formation around small asteroids: insights from DART's encounter with the Didymos system

We explore binary asteroid formation by spin-up and rotational disruption considering the NASA DART mission's encounter with the Didymos-Dimorphos binary, which was the first small binary visited by a spacecraft. Using a suite of $N$-body simulations, we follow the gravitational accumulation of a satellite from meter-sized particles following a mass-shedding event from a rapidly rotating primary. The satellite's formation is chaotic, as it undergoes a series of collisions, mergers, and close gravitational encounters with other moonlets, leading to a wide range of outcomes in terms of the satellite's mass, shape, orbit, and rotation state. We find that a Dimorphos-like satellite can form rapidly, in a matter of days, following a realistic mass-shedding event in which only ${\sim}2-3\%$ of the primary's mass is shed. Satellites can form in synchronous rotation due to their formation near the Roche limit. There is a strong preference for forming prolate (elongated) satellites, although some simulations result in oblate spheroids like Dimorphos. The distribution of simulated secondary shapes is broadly consistent with other binary systems, measured through radar or lightcurves. Unless Dimorphos's shape is an outlier, and considering the observational bias against lightcurve-based determination of secondary elongations for oblate bodies, we suggest there could be a significant population of oblate secondaries. If these satellites initially form with elongated shapes, a yet-unidentified pathway is needed to explain how they become oblate. Finally, we show that this chaotic formation pathway occasionally forms asteroid pairs and stable triples, including co-orbital satellites and satellites in mean motion resonances.

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arXiv2023

Photometry of the Didymos system across the DART impact apparition

On 26 September 2022, the Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) spacecraft impacted Dimorphos, the satellite of binary near-Earth asteroid (65803) Didymos. This demonstrated the efficacy of a kinetic impactor for planetary defense by changing the orbital period of Dimorphos by 33 minutes (Thomas et al. 2023). Measuring the period change relied heavily on a coordinated campaign of lightcurve photometry designed to detect mutual events (occultations and eclipses) as a direct probe of the satellite's orbital period. A total of 28 telescopes contributed 224 individual lightcurves during the impact apparition from July 2022 to February 2023. We focus here on decomposable lightcurves, i.e. those from which mutual events could be extracted. We describe our process of lightcurve decomposition and use that to release the full data set for future analysis. We leverage these data to place constraints on the post-impact evolution of ejecta. The measured depths of mutual events relative to models showed that the ejecta became optically thin within the first ~1 day after impact, and then faded with a decay time of about 25 days. The bulk magnitude of the system showed that ejecta no longer contributed measurable brightness enhancement after about 20 days post-impact. This bulk photometric behavior was not well represented by an HG photometric model. An HG1G2 model did fit the data well across a wide range of phase angles. Lastly, we note the presence of an ejecta tail through at least March 2023. Its persistence implied ongoing escape of ejecta from the system many months after DART impact.

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arXiv2023

Optical monitoring of the Didymos-Dimorphos asteroid system with the Danish telescope around the DART mission impact

The NASA's Double-Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) was a unique planetary defence and technology test mission, the first of its kind. The main spacecraft of the DART mission impacted the target asteroid Dimorphos, a small moon orbiting asteroid (65803) Didymos, on 2022 September 26. The impact brought up a mass of ejecta which, together with the direct momentum transfer from the collision, caused an orbital period change of 33 +/- 1 minutes, as measured by ground-based observations. We report here the outcome of the optical monitoring campaign of the Didymos system from the Danish 1.54 m telescope at La Silla around the time of impact. The observations contributed to the determination of the changes in the orbital parameters of the Didymos-Dimorphos system, as reported by arXiv:2303.02077, but in this paper we focus on the ejecta produced by the DART impact. We present photometric measurements from which we remove the contribution from the Didymos-Dimorphos system using a H-G photometric model. Using two photometric apertures we determine the fading rate of the ejecta to be 0.115 +/- 0.003 mag/d (in a 2" aperture) and 0.086 +/- 0.003 mag/d (5") over the first week post-impact. After about 8 days post-impact we note the fading slows down to 0.057 +/- 0.003 mag/d (2" aperture) and 0.068 +/- 0.002 mag/d (5"). We include deep-stacked images of the system to illustrate the ejecta evolution during the first 18 days, noting the emergence of dust tails formed from ejecta pushed in the anti-solar direction, and measuring the extent of the particles ejected sunward to be at least 4000 km.

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arXiv2023

Ejecta Evolution Following a Planned Impact into an Asteroid: The First Five Weeks

The impact of the DART spacecraft into Dimorphos, moon of the asteroid Didymos, changed Dimorphos' orbit substantially, largely from the ejection of material. We present results from twelve Earth-based facilities involved in a world-wide campaign to monitor the brightness and morphology of the ejecta in the first 35 days after impact. After an initial brightening of ~1.4 magnitudes, we find consistent dimming rates of 0.11-0.12 magnitudes/day in the first week, and 0.08-0.09 magnitudes/day over the entire study period. The system returned to its pre-impact brightness 24.3-25.3 days after impact through the primary ejecta tail remained. The dimming paused briefly eight days after impact, near in time to the appearance of the second tail. This was likely due to a secondary release of material after re-impact of a boulder released in the initial impact, through movement of the primary ejecta through the aperture likely played a role.

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arXiv2023

The Perturbed Full Two-Body Problem: Application to Post-DART Didymos

With the successful impact of the NASA DART spacecraft in the Didymos-Dimorphos binary asteroid system, we provide an initial analysis of the post-impact perturbed binary asteroid dynamics. To compare our simulation results with observations, we introduce a set of "observable elements" calculated using only the physical separation of the binary asteroid, rather than traditional Keplerian elements. Using numerical methods that treat the fully spin-orbit-coupled dynamics, we estimate the system's mass and the impact-induced changes in orbital velocity, semimajor axis, and eccentricity. We find that the changes to the mutual orbit depend strongly on the separation distance between Didymos and Dimorphos at the time of impact. If Dimorphos enters a tumbling state after the impact, this may be observable through changes in the system's eccentricity and orbit period. We also find that any DART-induced reshaping of Dimorphos would generally reduce the required change in orbital velocity to achieve the measured post-impact orbit period and will be assessed by the ESA Hera mission in 2027.

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arXiv2023

Implications for the Formation of 2005 UD from a New Convex Shape Model

(155140) 2005 UD has a similar orbit to (3200) Phaethon, an active asteroid in a highly eccentric orbit thought to be the source of the Geminid meteor shower. Evidence points to a genetic relationship between these two objects, but we have yet to fully understand how 2005 UD and Phaethon could have separated into this associated pair. Presented herein are new observations of 2005 UD from five observatories that were carried out during the 2018, 2019, and 2021 apparitions. We implemented light curve inversion using our new data, as well as dense and sparse archival data from epochs in 2005--2021 to better constrain the rotational period and derive a convex shape model of 2005 UD. We discuss two equally well-fitting pole solutions ($λ= 116.6^{\circ}$, $β= -53.6^{\circ}$) and ($λ= 300.3^{\circ}$, $β= -55.4^{\circ}$), the former largely in agreement with previous thermophysical analyses and the latter interesting due to its proximity to Phaethon's pole orientation. We also present a refined sidereal period of $P_{\text{sid}} = 5.234246 \pm 0.000097$ hr. A search for surface color heterogeneity showed no significant rotational variation. An activity search using the deepest stacked image available of 2005 UD near aphelion did not reveal a coma or tail but allowed modeling of an upper limit of 0.04 to 0.37~kg s$^{-1}$ for dust production. We then leveraged our spin solutions to help limit the range of formation scenarios and the link to Phaethon in the context of nongravitational forces and timescales associated with the physical evolution of the system.

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arXiv2023

Orbital Period Change of Dimorphos Due to the DART Kinetic Impact

The Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) spacecraft successfully performed the first test of a kinetic impactor for asteroid deflection by impacting Dimorphos, the secondary of near-Earth binary asteroid (65803) Didymos, and changing the orbital period of Dimorphos. A change in orbital period of approximately 7 minutes was expected if the incident momentum from the DART spacecraft was directly transferred to the asteroid target in a perfectly inelastic collision, but studies of the probable impact conditions and asteroid properties indicated that a considerable momentum enhancement ($β$) was possible. In the years prior to impact, we used lightcurve observations to accurately determine the pre-impact orbit parameters of Dimorphos with respect to Didymos. Here we report the change in the orbital period of Dimorphos as a result of the DART kinetic impact to be -33.0 +/- 1.0 (3$σ$) minutes. Using new Earth-based lightcurve and radar observations, two independent approaches determined identical values for the change in the orbital period. This large orbit period change suggests that ejecta contributed a significant amount of momentum to the asteroid beyond what the DART spacecraft carried.

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