arXiv subjects

Petr Pravec

Publications and source records attributed to Petr Pravec.

33 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2023

Orbital Period Change of Dimorphos Due to the DART Kinetic Impact

The Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) spacecraft successfully performed the first test of a kinetic impactor for asteroid deflection by impacting Dimorphos, the secondary of near-Earth binary asteroid (65803) Didymos, and changing the orbital period of Dimorphos. A change in orbital period of approximately 7 minutes was expected if the incident momentum from the DART spacecraft was directly transferred to the asteroid target in a perfectly inelastic collision, but studies of the probable impact conditions and asteroid properties indicated that a considerable momentum enhancement ($β$) was possible. In the years prior to impact, we used lightcurve observations to accurately determine the pre-impact orbit parameters of Dimorphos with respect to Didymos. Here we report the change in the orbital period of Dimorphos as a result of the DART kinetic impact to be -33.0 +/- 1.0 (3$σ$) minutes. Using new Earth-based lightcurve and radar observations, two independent approaches determined identical values for the change in the orbital period. This large orbit period change suggests that ejecta contributed a significant amount of momentum to the asteroid beyond what the DART spacecraft carried.

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arXiv2023

Successful Kinetic Impact into an Asteroid for Planetary Defense

While no known asteroid poses a threat to Earth for at least the next century, the catalog of near-Earth asteroids is incomplete for objects whose impacts would produce regional devastation. Several approaches have been proposed to potentially prevent an asteroid impact with Earth by deflecting or disrupting an asteroid. A test of kinetic impact technology was identified as the highest priority space mission related to asteroid mitigation. NASA's Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) mission is the first full-scale test of kinetic impact technology. The mission's target asteroid was Dimorphos, the secondary member of the S-type binary near-Earth asteroid (65803) Didymos. This binary asteroid system was chosen to enable ground-based telescopes to quantify the asteroid deflection caused by DART's impact. While past missions have utilized impactors to investigate the properties of small bodies those earlier missions were not intended to deflect their targets and did not achieve measurable deflections. Here we report the DART spacecraft's autonomous kinetic impact into Dimorphos and reconstruct the impact event, including the timeline leading to impact, the location and nature of the DART impact site, and the size and shape of Dimorphos. The successful impact of the DART spacecraft with Dimorphos and the resulting change in Dimorphos's orbit demonstrates that kinetic impactor technology is a viable technique to potentially defend Earth if necessary.

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arXiv2023

Dark Comets? Unexpectedly Large Nongravitational Accelerations on a Sample of Small Asteroids

We report statistically significant detections of non-radial nongravitational accelerations based on astrometric data in the photometrically inactive objects 1998 KY$_{26}$, 2005 VL$_1$, 2016 NJ$_{33}$, 2010 VL$_{65}$, 2016 RH$_{120}$, and 2010 RF$_{12}$. The magnitudes of the nongravitational accelerations are greater than those typically induced by the Yarkovsky effect and there is no radiation-based, non-radial effect that can be so large. Therefore, we hypothesize that the accelerations are driven by outgassing, and calculate implied H$_2$O production rates for each object. We attempt to reconcile outgassing induced acceleration with the lack of visible comae or photometric activity via the absence of surface dust and low levels of gas production. Although these objects are small and some are rapidly rotating, surface cohesive forces are stronger than the rotational forces and rapid rotation alone cannot explain the lack of surface debris. It is possible that surface dust was removed previously, perhaps via outgassing activity that increased the rotation rates to their present day value. We calculate dust production rates of order $\sim10^{-4}$ g s$^{-1}$ in each object assuming that the nuclei are bare, within the upper limits of dust production from a sample stacked image of 1998 KY$_{26}$ of $\dot{M}_{\rm Dust}<0.2$ g s$^{-1}$. This production corresponds to brightness variations of order $\sim0.0025\%$, which are undetectable in extant photometric data. We assess the future observability of each of these targets, and find that the orbit of 1998 KY$_{26}$ -- which is also the target for the extended Hayabusa2 mission -- exhibits favorable viewing geometry before 2025.

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arXiv2022

Anticipating the DART impact: Orbit estimation of Dimorphos using a simplified model

We used the times of occultations and eclipses between the components of the 65803 Didymos binary system observed in its lightcurves from 2003-2021 to estimate the orbital parameters of Dimorphos relative to Didymos. We employed a weighted least-squares approach and a modified Keplerian orbit model in order to accommodate the effects from non-gravitational forces such as Binary YORP that could cause a linear change in mean motion over time. We estimate that the period of the mutual orbit at the epoch 2022 September 26.0 TDB, the day of the DART impact, is $11.9214869 \pm 0.000028$~h ($1σ$) and that the mean motion of the orbit is changing at a rate of $(5.0\pm 1.0)\times 10^{-18}$~rad s$^{-2}$ $(1σ$). The formal $3σ$ uncertainty in orbital phase of Dimorphos during the planned Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) mission is $5.4^\circ$. Observations from July to September 2022, a few months to days prior to the DART impact, should provide modest improvements to the orbital phase uncertainty and reduce it to about $4.2^\circ$. These results, generated using a relatively simple model, are consistent with those generated using the more sophisticated model of \citet{scheirich22}, which demonstrates the reliability of our method and adds confidence to these mission-critical results.

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arXiv2022

Recent formation and likely cometary activity of near-Earth asteroid pair 2019 PR2 -- 2019 QR6

Asteroid pairs are genetically related asteroids that recently separated ($<$few million years), but still reside on similar heliocentric orbits. A few hundred of these systems have been identified, primarily in the asteroid main-belt. Here we studied a newly discovered pair of near-Earth objects (NEOs): 2019 PR2 and 2019 QR6. Based on broad-band photometry, we found these asteroids to be spectrally similar to D-types, a type rare amongst NEOs. We recovered astrometric observations for both asteroids from the Catalina Sky Survey from 2005, which significantly improved their fitted orbits. With these refinements we ran backwards orbital integrations to study formation and evolutionary history. We found that neither a pure gravitational model nor a model with the Yarkovsky effect could explain their current orbits. We thus implemented two models of comet-like non-gravitational forces based on water or CO sublimation. The first model assumed quasi-continuous, comet-like activity after separation, which suggested a formation time of the asteroid pair $300^{+120}_{-70}$ years ago. The second model assumed short-term activity for up to one heliocentric orbit ($\sim$13.9 years) after separation, which suggested that the pair formed 272$\pm$7 years ago. Image stacks showed no activity for 2019~PR2 during its last perihelion passage. These results strongly argue for a common origin that makes these objects the youngest asteroid pair known to date. Questions remain regarding whether these objects derived from a parent comet or asteroid, and how activity may have evolved since their separation.

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arXiv2021

Libration-induced Orbit Period Variations Following the DART Impact

The Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) mission will be the first test of a kinetic impactor as a means of planetary defense. In late 2022, DART will collide with Dimorphos, the secondary in the Didymos binary asteroid system. The impact will cause a momentum transfer from the spacecraft to the binary asteroid, changing the orbit period of Dimorphos and forcing it to librate in its orbit. Owing to the coupled dynamics in binary asteroid systems, the orbit and libration state of Dimorphos are intertwined. Thus, as the secondary librates, it also experiences fluctuations in its orbit period. These variations in the orbit period are dependent on the magnitude of the impact perturbation, as well as the system's state at impact and the moments of inertia of the secondary. In general, any binary asteroid system whose secondary is librating will have a non-constant orbit period on account of the secondary's fluctuating spin rate. The orbit period variations are typically driven by two modes: a long-period and short-period, each with significant amplitudes on the order of tens of seconds to several minutes. The fluctuating orbit period offers both a challenge and an opportunity in the context of the DART mission. Orbit period oscillations will make determining the post-impact orbit period more difficult, but can also provide information about the system's libration state and the DART impact.

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arXiv2020

Spin Change of Asteroid 2012 TC4 probably by Radiation Torques

Asteroid 2012 TC4 is a small ($\sim$10 m) near-Earth object that was observed during its Earth close approaches in 2012 and 2017. Earlier analyses of light curves revealed its excited rotation state. We collected all available photometric data from the two apparitions to reconstruct its rotation state and convex shape model. We show that light curves from 2012 and 2017 cannot be fitted with a single set of model parameters -- the rotation and precession periods are significantly different for these two data sets and they must have changed between or during the two apparitions. Nevertheless, we could fit all light curves with a dynamically self-consistent model assuming that the spin states of 2012 TC4 in 2012 and 2017 were different. To interpret our results, we developed a numerical model of its spin evolution in which we included two potentially relevant perturbations: (i) gravitational torque due to the Sun and Earth, and (ii) radiation torque known as the Yarkovsky-O'Keefe-Radzievskii-Paddack (YORP) effect. Despite our model simplicity, we found that the role of gravitational torques is negligible. Instead, we argue that the observed change of its spin state may be plausibly explained as a result of the YORP torque. To strengthen this interpretation we verify that (i) the internal energy dissipation due to material inelasticity, and (ii) an impact with a sufficiently large interplanetary particle are both highly unlikely causes its observed spin state change. If true, this is the first case when the YORP effect has been detected for a tumbling body.

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arXiv2019

Cascade disruptions in asteroid clusters

We studied asteroid clusters suggesting a possibility of at least two disruption events in their recent history (< 5 Myr). We searched for new members of known asteroid pairs and clusters and we verified their membership. We found four asteroid clusters, namely the clusters of (11842) Kap'bos, (14627) Emilkowalski, (63440) 2001 MD30 and (157123) 2004 NW5 that show at least two secondary separation events that occurred at significantly different times. We considered a possible formation mechanism for these clusters: The parent of an asteroid cluster was spun up to its critical rotation frequency, underwent a rotation fission and was slowed down by escape of the newly formed secondary/ies. Then the YORP effect spun up the primary again and it reached its critical rotation frequency and underwent another fission. We created a simple model to test whether this scenario is possible for the four clusters. We obtained a good agreement between the model and the cluster properties for the clusters of Kap'bos and (63440). For the cluster of Emilkowalski, the time needed for the primary to reach its critical frequency after the first fission event was predicted to be too long by a factor of several. We suspect, considering also its D type taxonomic classification and the existence of a dust band associated with the cluster, that the asteroid Emilkowalski may actually be a cometary nucleus. For the cluster of (157123), the final rotational frequency of the primary after the last fission event predicted by our model is in a good agreement with the observed rotation frequency of (157123). However, a separation of the older secondary is not possible in our model due to the deficiency of free energy needed for an escape of the large secondary. This could be due to an error in the H value of the secondary or the possibility that we did not find the real primary of this cluster.

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arXiv2018

(3200) Phaethon: Bulk density from Yarkovsky drift detection

The recent close approach of the NEA (3200) Phaethon offered a rare opportunity to obtain high-quality observational data. We used the newly obtained optical light curves to improve the spin and shape model of Phaethon and to determine its surface physical properties derived by thermophysical modeling. We also used the available astrometric observations of Phaethon, including those obtained by the Arecibo radar and the Gaia spacecraft, to constrain the secular drift of the orbital semimajor axis. This constraint allowed us to estimate the bulk density by assuming that the drift is dominated by the Yarkovsky effect. We used the convex inversion model to derive the 3D shape model of Phaethon, and a detailed numerical approach for an accurate analysis of the Yarkovsky effect. We obtained a unique solution for Phaethon's pole orientation at $(318,-47)^{\circ}$ ecliptic longitude and latitude (uncertainty of $5^{\circ}$), and confirm the previously reported thermophysical properties ($D=5.1\pm0.2$ km, $Γ=600\pm200$ SI). Phaethon has a top-like shape with possible north-south asymmetry. The characteristic size of the regolith grains is 1-2 cm. The orbit analysis reveals a secular drift of the semimajor axis of $-(6.9\pm1.9)\times 10^{-4}$ au Myr$^{-1}$. With the derived volume-equivalent size of 5.1~km, the bulk density $ρ$ is $1.67\pm0.47$ g cm$^{-3}$. If the size is slightly larger $\sim5.7$ km, as suggested by radar data, $ρ$ would decrease to $1.48\pm0.42$ g cm$^{-3}$. We further investigated the suggestion that Phaethon may be in a cluster with asteroids (155140) 2005 UD and (225416) 1999 YC that was formed by rotational fission of a critically spinning parent body. Phaethon's $ρ$ is consistent with typical values for large ($>100$ km) C-complex asteroids and supports its association with asteroid (2) Pallas. These findings render a cometary origin unlikely for Phaethon.

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arXiv2018

The tumbling rotational state of 1I/`Oumuamua

The discovery of 1I/2017 U1 ('Oumuamua) has provided the first glimpse of a planetesimal born in another planetary system. This interloper exhibits a variable colour within a range that is broadly consistent with local small bodies such as the P/D type asteroids, Jupiter Trojans, and dynamically excited Kuiper Belt Objects. 1I/'Oumuamua appears unusually elongated in shape, with an axial ratio exceeding 5:1. Rotation period estimates are inconsistent and varied, with reported values between 6.9 and 8.3 hours. Here we analyse all available optical photometry reported to date. No single rotation period can explain the exhibited brightness variations. Rather, 1I/'Oumuamua appears to be in an excited rotational state undergoing Non-Principal Axis (NPA) rotation, or tumbling. A satisfactory solution has apparent lightcurve frequencies of 0.135 and 0.126 hr-1 and implies a longest-to-shortest axis ratio of 5:1, though the available data are insufficient to uniquely constrain the true frequencies and shape. Assuming a body that responds to NPA rotation in a similar manner to Solar System asteroids and comets, the timescale to damp 1I/'Oumuamua's tumbling is at least a billion years. 1I/'Oumuamua was likely set tumbling within its parent planetary system, and will remain tumbling well after it has left ours.

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arXiv2017

CzeV - The Czech Variable Star Catalogue

We present the first release of the Czech Variable star catalogue that currently contains 1228 stars whose variability was discovered by 60 Czech observers. The catalogue contains confirmed variable stars of various types, but also candidates. We give precise coordinates, cross identification with other catalogues, information about constellation, variability type, brightness, light elements, name of the discoverer and year of discovery. In eighty-eight percent of stars the variability type is estimated, for more than 60 % of the stars the light ephemerides are given.

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arXiv2017

ASIME 2016 White Paper: In-Space Utilisation of Asteroids: "Answers to Questions from the Asteroid Miners"

The aim of the Asteroid Science Intersections with In-Space Mine Engineering (ASIME) 2016 conference on September 21-22, 2016 in Luxembourg City was to provide an environment for the detailed discussion of the specific properties of asteroids, with the engineering needs of space missions that utilize asteroids. The ASIME 2016 Conference produced a layered record of discussions from the asteroid scientists and the asteroid miners to understand each other's key concerns and to address key scientific questions from the asteroid mining companies: Planetary Resources, Deep Space Industries and TransAstra. These Questions were the focus of the two day conference, were addressed by scientists inside and outside of the ASIME Conference and are the focus of this White Paper. The Questions from the asteroid mining companies have been sorted into the three asteroid science themes: 1) survey, 2) surface and 3) subsurface and 4) Other. The answers to those Questions have been provided by the scientists with their conference presentations or edited directly into an early open-access collaborative Google document (August 2016-October 2016), or inserted by A. Graps using additional reference materials. During the ASIME 2016 last two-hours, the scientists turned the Questions from the Asteroid Miners around by presenting their own key concerns: Questions from the Asteroid Scientists . These answers in this White Paper will point to the Science Knowledge Gaps (SKGs) for advancing the asteroid in-space resource utilisation domain.

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arXiv2015

Asteroid Systems: Binaries, Triples, and Pairs

In the past decade, the number of known binary near-Earth asteroids has more than quadrupled and the number of known large main belt asteroids with satellites has doubled. Half a dozen triple asteroids have been discovered, and the previously unrecognized populations of asteroid pairs and small main belt binaries have been identified. The current observational evidence confirms that small (<20 km) binaries form by rotational fission and establishes that the YORP effect powers the spin-up process. A unifying paradigm based on rotational fission and post-fission dynamics can explain the formation of small binaries, triples, and pairs. Large (>20 km) binaries with small satellites are most likely created during large collisions.

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arXiv2015

Link between the Potentially Hazardous Asteroid (86039) 1999 NC43 and the Chelyabinsk meteoroid tenuous

We explored the statistical and compositional link between Chelyabinsk meteoroid and potentially hazardous asteroid (86039) 1999 NC43 to investigate their proposed relation proposed by Borovička et al. (2013). Using detailed computation we confirm that the orbit of the Chelyabinsk impactor is anomalously close to 1999 NC43. We find about (1-3) x 10-4 likelihood of that to happen by chance. Taking the standpoint that the Chelyabinsk impactor indeed separated from 1999 NC43 by a cratering or rotational fission event, we run a forward probability calculation, which is an independent statistical test. However, we find this scenario is unlikely at the about (10-3 -10-2) level. We also verified compositional link between Chelyabinska and 1999NC43. Mineralogical analysis of Chelyabinsk (LL chondrite) and (8) Flora (the largest member of the presumed LL chondrite parent family) shows that their olivine and pyroxene chemistries are similar to LL chondrites. Similar analysis of 1999 NC43 shows that its olivine and pyroxene chemistries are more similar to L chondrites than LL chondrites (like Chelyabinsk). We also took photometric observations of 1999 NC43 over 54 nights during two apparitions (2000, 2014). The lightcurve of 1999 NC43 resembles simulated lightcurves of tumblers in Short-Axis Mode with the mean wobbling angle 20-30 deg. While, a mechanism of the non-principal axis rotation excitation is unclear, we can rule out the formation of asteroid in disruption of its parent body as a plausible cause, as it is unlikely that the rotation of an asteroid fragment from catastrophic disruption would be nearly completely halted. Considering all these facts, we find the proposed link between the Chelyabinsk meteoroid and the asteroid 1999 NC43 to be unlikely.

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arXiv2011

Spin vector and shape of (6070) Rheinland and their implications

Main belt asteroids (6070) Rheinland and (54827) 2001NQ8 belong to a small population of couples of bodies which reside on very similar heliocentric orbits. Vokrouhlicky & Nesvorny (2008, AJ 136, 280) promoted a term "asteroid pairs", pointing out their common origin within the past tens to hundreds of ky. Previous attempts to reconstruct the initial configuration of Rheinland and 2001NQ8 at the time of their separation have led to the prediction that Rheinland's rotation should be retrograde. Here we report extensive photometric observations of this asteroid and use the lightcurve inversion technique to directly determine its rotation state and shape. We confirm the retrograde sense of rotation of Rheinland, with obliquity value constrained to be >= 140 deg. The ecliptic longitude of the pole position is not well constrained as yet. The asymmetric behavior of Rheinland's lightcurve reflects a sharp, near-planar edge in our convex shape representation of this asteroid. Our calibrated observations in the red filter also allow us to determine $H_R = 13.68\pm 0.05$ and $G = 0.31\pm 0.05$ values of the H-G system. With the characteristic color index $V-R = 0.49\pm 0.05$ for the S-type asteroids, we thus obtain $H = 14.17\pm 0.07$ for the absolute magnitude of (6070) Rheinland. This a significantly larger value than previously obtained from analysis of the astrometric survey observations. We next use the obliquity constraint for Rheinland to eliminate some degree of uncertainty in the past propagation of its orbit. This is because the sign of the past secular change of its semimajor axis due to the Yarkovsky effect is now constrained. Determination of the rotation state of the secondary component, asteroid (54827) 2001NQ8, is the key element in further constraining the age of the pair and its formation process.

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