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Phil Marshall

Publications and source records attributed to Phil Marshall.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

ALPACA I: Controlling source and PSF systematics in JWST time-delay cosmography with differentiable lens modeling

Time-delay cosmography provides an independent probe of the Hubble constant ($H_0$), but exploiting the high-resolution imaging of the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) requires strong-lens models that capture complex source-galaxy morphologies and the point spread function (PSF) with high fidelity. Flexible source and joint PSF reconstruction are computationally expensive, motivating more rigid parameterizations that can bias the inferred time-delay distance $D_{\Delta t}$. We present ALPACA, a semi-automatic, GPU-accelerated, differentiable strong-lens modeling pipeline built on Herculens, Starred, and JAX. ALPACA jointly reconstructs a pixelated correlated-field source, the lens mass, and the PSF within a single likelihood, reducing per-system runtimes from weeks to less than 15 hours. We validate the pipeline on realistic mock JWST/NIRCam observations built from morphologically complex COSMOS galaxy sources. Holding an imperfect PSF (RMSE = 12% from truth) fixed biases $D_{\Delta t}$ by up to 14%, whereas joint PSF reconstruction reduces this bias to the percent level. We further show that the reconstructed PSF core can be marginalized over jointly with the lens parameters during posterior sampling. Propagating the per-lens posteriors of a ten-lens mock sample through hierarchical inference, we recover the input cosmology without significant bias. ALPACA shows that rigorous control of source and PSF systematics is computationally affordable, supporting reliable percent-level precision in the JWST era.

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Strong Lensing Tomography: Double and pseudo multi-source plane strong gravitational lensing to constrain dark energy

Tomographic measurements of gravitational lensing with different lens and source redshift distributions contain crucial information about the universe's relative expansion rate, and hence dark energy. While this technique is well-established in weak lensing, its application to strong lensing has traditionally focused on Double Source Plane Lenses (DSPLs). However, DSPLs are exceedingly rare and fundamentally limited by the Mass-Sheet Degeneracy (MSD), a systematic uncertainty underexplored in previous literature. To overcome these challenges, we introduce Pseudo Double-Source Plane Lenses (PDSPLs): pairs of independent single-source plane lenses with self-similar deflectors. This generalizes the DSPL formalism to the $\sim 10^5$ galaxy-galaxy lenses expected from upcoming surveys like LSST, Euclid, and Roman. Unlike true DSPLs, PDSPLs are free from the intermediate source mass problem by construction, eliminating the associated secondary MSD and the need for multi-plane ray tracing. We incorporate the deflector galaxy's MSD into a hierarchical forecasting framework, demonstrating that this degeneracy severely degrades constraints from small DSPL samples, thus motivating our PDSPL statistical approach. We forecast constraints on the dark energy equation of state under a Flat $w_0w_a$CDM cosmology. The LSST 10-year photometric sample alone achieves $\sigma(w_0) \sim 0.45$, while simultaneously constraining the MSD parameter and deflector power-law slope to $\sim 2\%$. Adding a prior $\mathcal{N}(0.3, 0.05)$ on $\Omega_{\rm m}$ -- simulating combination with external probes like CMB, BAO, or SNe Ia -- tightens this to $\sigma(w_0) \sim 0.29$, competitive with current Stage III weak lensing analyses. Notably, this massive photometric sample outperforms smaller subsets with precise spectroscopic follow-up (e.g., from 4MOST), confirming statistical volume dominates over per-pair precision.

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SLSim: a strong lensing population simulation package

Gravitational lensing offers unique insights into cosmology by bending light around massive objects. Strong gravitational lensing, in particular, produces magnified and often multiple images of distant sources, crucial for precise cosmological measurements and understanding the distribution of dark matter in the universe. Current studies are limited by the number of strong gravitational lenses. From upcoming cosmological surveys, we anticipate observing a several orders of magnitude increase in the number of lenses, for both static and transient phenomena. However, detecting and analyzing these events from vast surveys like Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) presents significant challenges. To prepare for these challenges, we introduce SLSim, a versatile simulation tool tailored for the Vera C. Rubin Observatory. SLSim integrates advanced astrophysical models with computational efficiency to generate synthetic strong lens populations under realistic observational conditions. SLSim simulates static and variable lensing scenarios, essential for cosmological studies, training and testing lens search and data analysis pipelines. This paper details SLSim,'s design and implementation, emphasizing its modularity and capabilities across various astrophysical regimes. Validation against observational data and existing simulations confirms SLSim's accuracy in reproducing observed lensing phenomena. SLSim is publicly available at https://github.com/LSST-strong-lensing/slsim, and we anticipate continued development and expansion of its capabilities. Users are encouraged to check the repository for updates and to contribute to ongoing community efforts in strong lensing simulations.

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Investigating the Dark Energy Constraint from Strongly Lensed AGN at LSST-Scale

Strongly lensed Active Galactic Nuclei (AGN) with an observable time delay can be used to constrain the expansion history of the Universe through time-delay cosmography (TDC). As the sample of time-delay lenses grows to statistical size, with $\mathcal{O}$(1000) lensed AGN forecast to be observed by the Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST), there is an emerging opportunity to use TDC as an independent probe of dark energy. To take advantage of this statistical sample, we implement a scalable hierarchical inference tool which computes the cosmological likelihood for hundreds of strong lenses simultaneously. With this new technique, we investigate the cosmological constraining power from a simulation of the full LSST sample. We start from individual lenses, and emulate the full joint hierarchical TDC analysis, including image-based modeling, time-delay measurement, velocity dispersion measurement, and external convergence prediction. We fully account for the mass-sheet and mass-anisotropy degeneracies. We assume a sample of 800 lenses, with varying levels of follow-up fidelity based on existing campaigns. With our baseline assumptions, within a flexible $w_0w_a$CDM cosmology, we simultaneously forecast a $\sim$2.5% constraint on H0 and a dark energy figure of merit (DE FOM) of 6.7. We show that by expanding the sample from 50 lenses with IFU kinematics to include 750 lenses with plausible LSST time-delay measurements, we improve the forecasted DE FOM by nearly a factor of 3, demonstrating the value of incorporating this portion of the sample. We also investigate different follow-up campaign strategies, and find significant improvements in the DE FOM with additional stellar kinematics measurements and higher-precision time-delay measurements. We also demonstrate how the redshift configuration of time-delay lenses impacts constraining power in $w_0w_a$CDM.

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Lens Model Accuracy in the Expected LSST Lensed AGN Sample

Strong gravitational lensing of active galactic nuclei (AGN) enables measurements of cosmological parameters through time-delay cosmography (TDC). With data from the upcoming LSST survey, we anticipate using a sample of O(1000) lensed AGN for TDC. To prepare for this dataset and enable this measurement, we construct and analyze a realistic mock sample of 1300 systems drawn from the OM10 (Oguri & Marshall 2010) catalog of simulated lenses with AGN sources at $z<3.1$ in order to test a key aspect of the analysis pipeline, that of the lens modeling. We realize the lenses as power law elliptical mass distributions and simulate 5-year LSST i-band coadd images. From every image, we infer the lens mass model parameters using neural posterior estimation (NPE). Focusing on the key model parameters, $\theta_E$ (the Einstein Radius) and $\gamma_{lens}$ (the projected mass density profile slope), with consistent mass-light ellipticity correlations in test and training data, we recover $\theta_E$ with less than 1% bias per lens, 6.5% precision per lens and $\gamma_{lens}$ with less than 3% bias per lens, 8% precision per lens. We find that lens light subtraction prior to modeling is only useful when applied to data sampled from the training prior. If emulated deconvolution is applied to the data prior to modeling, precision improves across all parameters by a factor of 2. Finally, we combine the inferred lens mass models using Bayesian Hierarchical Inference to recover the global properties of the lens sample with less than 1% bias.

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Lens Modeling of STRIDES Strongly Lensed Quasars using Neural Posterior Estimation

Strongly lensed quasars can be used to constrain cosmological parameters through time-delay cosmography. Models of the lens masses are a necessary component of this analysis. To enable time-delay cosmography from a sample of $\mathcal{O}(10^3)$ lenses, which will soon become available from surveys like the Rubin Observatory's Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) and the Euclid Wide Survey, we require fast and standardizable modeling techniques. To address this need, we apply neural posterior estimation (NPE) for modeling galaxy-scale strongly lensed quasars from the Strong Lensing Insights into the Dark Energy Survey (STRIDES) sample. NPE brings two advantages: speed and the ability to implicitly marginalize over nuisance parameters. We extend this method by employing sequential NPE to increase precision of mass model posteriors. We then fold individual lens models into a hierarchical Bayesian inference to recover the population distribution of lens mass parameters, accounting for out-of-distribution shift. After verifying our method using simulated analogs of the STRIDES lens sample, we apply our method to 14 Hubble Space Telescope single-filter observations. We find the population mean of the power-law elliptical mass distribution slope, $\gamma_{\text{lens}}$, to be $\mathcal{M}_{\gamma_{\text{lens}}}=2.13 \pm 0.06$. Our result represents the first population-level constraint for these systems. This population-level inference from fully automated modeling is an important stepping stone towards cosmological inference with large samples of strongly lensed quasars.

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Rubin-Euclid Derived Data Products: Initial Recommendations

This report is the result of a joint discussion between the Rubin and Euclid scientific communities. The work presented in this report was focused on designing and recommending an initial set of Derived Data products (DDPs) that could realize the science goals enabled by joint processing. All interested Rubin and Euclid data rights holders were invited to contribute via an online discussion forum and a series of virtual meetings. Strong interest in enhancing science with joint DDPs emerged from across a wide range of astrophysical domains: Solar System, the Galaxy, the Local Volume, from the nearby to the primaeval Universe, and cosmology.

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Report of the Topical Group on Dark Energy and Cosmic Acceleration: Complementarity of Probes and New Facilities for Snowmass 2021

The mechanism(s) driving the early- and late-time accelerated expansion of the Universe represent one of the most compelling mysteries in fundamental physics today. The path to understanding the causes of early- and late-time acceleration depends on fully leveraging ongoing surveys, developing and demonstrating new technologies, and constructing and operating new instruments. This report presents a multi-faceted vision for the cosmic survey program in the 2030s and beyond that derives from these considerations. Cosmic surveys address a wide range of fundamental physics questions, and are thus a unique and powerful component of the HEP experimental portfolio.

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Snowmass2021 Cosmic Frontier White Paper: Rubin Observatory after LSST

The Vera C. Rubin Observatory will begin the Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) in 2024, spanning an area of 18,000 square degrees in six bands, with more than 800 observations of each field over ten years. The unprecedented data set will enable great advances in the study of the formation and evolution of structure and exploration of physics of the dark universe. The observations will hold clues about the cause for the accelerated expansion of the universe and possibly the nature of dark matter. During the next decade, LSST will be able to confirm or dispute if tensions seen today in cosmological data are due to new physics. New and unexpected phenomena could confirm or disrupt our current understanding of the universe. Findings from LSST will guide the path forward post-LSST. The Rubin Observatory will still be a uniquely powerful facility even then, capable of revealing further insights into the physics of the dark universe. These could be obtained via innovative observing strategies, e.g., targeting new probes at shorter timescales than with LSST, or via modest instrumental changes, e.g., new filters, or through an entirely new instrument for the focal plane. This White Paper highlights some of the opportunities in each scenario from Rubin observations after LSST.

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Optimization of the Observing Cadence for the Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time: a pioneering process of community-focused experimental design

Vera C. Rubin Observatory is a ground-based astronomical facility under construction, a joint project of the National Science Foundation and the U.S. Department of Energy, designed to conduct a multi-purpose 10-year optical survey of the southern hemisphere sky: the Legacy Survey of Space and Time. Significant flexibility in survey strategy remains within the constraints imposed by the core science goals of probing dark energy and dark matter, cataloging the Solar System, exploring the transient optical sky, and mapping the Milky Way. The survey's massive data throughput will be transformational for many other astrophysics domains and Rubin's data access policy sets the stage for a huge potential users' community. To ensure that the survey science potential is maximized while serving as broad a community as possible, Rubin Observatory has involved the scientific community at large in the process of setting and refining the details of the observing strategy. The motivation, history, and decision-making process of this strategy optimization are detailed in this paper, giving context to the science-driven proposals and recommendations for the survey strategy included in this Focus Issue.

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The Impact of Observing Strategy on Cosmological Constraints with LSST

The generation-defining Vera C. Rubin Observatory will make state-of-the-art measurements of both the static and transient universe through its Legacy Survey for Space and Time (LSST). With such capabilities, it is immensely challenging to optimize the LSST observing strategy across the survey's wide range of science drivers. Many aspects of the LSST observing strategy relevant to the LSST Dark Energy Science Collaboration, such as survey footprint definition, single visit exposure time and the cadence of repeat visits in different filters, are yet to be finalized. Here, we present metrics used to assess the impact of observing strategy on the cosmological probes considered most sensitive to survey design; these are large-scale structure, weak lensing, type Ia supernovae, kilonovae and strong lens systems (as well as photometric redshifts, which enable many of these probes). We evaluate these metrics for over 100 different simulated potential survey designs. Our results show that multiple observing strategy decisions can profoundly impact cosmological constraints with LSST; these include adjusting the survey footprint, ensuring repeat nightly visits are taken in different filters and enforcing regular cadence. We provide public code for our metrics, which makes them readily available for evaluating further modifications to the survey design. We conclude with a set of recommendations and highlight observing strategy factors that require further research.

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The LSST DESC DC2 Simulated Sky Survey

We describe the simulated sky survey underlying the second data challenge (DC2) carried out in preparation for analysis of the Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) by the LSST Dark Energy Science Collaboration (LSST DESC). Significant connections across multiple science domains will be a hallmark of LSST; the DC2 program represents a unique modeling effort that stresses this interconnectivity in a way that has not been attempted before. This effort encompasses a full end-to-end approach: starting from a large N-body simulation, through setting up LSST-like observations including realistic cadences, through image simulations, and finally processing with Rubin's LSST Science Pipelines. This last step ensures that we generate data products resembling those to be delivered by the Rubin Observatory as closely as is currently possible. The simulated DC2 sky survey covers six optical bands in a wide-fast-deep (WFD) area of approximately 300 deg^2 as well as a deep drilling field (DDF) of approximately 1 deg^2. We simulate 5 years of the planned 10-year survey. The DC2 sky survey has multiple purposes. First, the LSST DESC working groups can use the dataset to develop a range of DESC analysis pipelines to prepare for the advent of actual data. Second, it serves as a realistic testbed for the image processing software under development for LSST by the Rubin Observatory. In particular, simulated data provide a controlled way to investigate certain image-level systematic effects. Finally, the DC2 sky survey enables the exploration of new scientific ideas in both static and time-domain cosmology.

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DESC DC2 Data Release Note

In preparation for cosmological analyses of the Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST), the LSST Dark Energy Science Collaboration (LSST DESC) has created a 300 deg$^2$ simulated survey as part of an effort called Data Challenge 2 (DC2). The DC2 simulated sky survey, in six optical bands with observations following a reference LSST observing cadence, was processed with the LSST Science Pipelines (19.0.0). In this Note, we describe the public data release of the resulting object catalogs for the coadded images of five years of simulated observations along with associated truth catalogs. We include a brief description of the major features of the available data sets. To enable convenient access to the data products, we have developed a web portal connected to Globus data services. We describe how to access the data and provide example Jupyter Notebooks in Python to aid first interactions with the data. We welcome feedback and questions about the data release via a GitHub repository.

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Better support for collaborations preparing for large-scale projects: the case study of the LSST Science Collaborations Astro2020 APC White Paper

Through the lens of the LSST Science Collaborations' experience, this paper advocates for new and improved ways to fund large, complex collaborations at the interface of data science and astrophysics as they work in preparation for and on peta-scale, complex surveys, of which LSST is a prime example. We advocate for the establishment of programs to support both research and infrastructure development that enables innovative collaborative research on such scales.

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Dark Energy and Modified Gravity

Despite two decades of tremendous experimental and theoretical progress, the riddle of the accelerated expansion of the Universe remains to be solved. On the experimental side, our understanding of the possibilities and limitations of the major dark energy probes has evolved; here we summarize the major probes and their crucial challenges. On the theoretical side, the taxonomy of explanations for the accelerated expansion rate is better understood, providing clear guidance to the relevant observables. We argue that: i) improving statistical precision and systematic control by taking more data, supporting research efforts to address crucial challenges for each probe, using complementary methods, and relying on cross-correlations is well motivated; ii) blinding of analyses is difficult but ever more important; iii) studies of dark energy and modified gravity are related; and iv) it is crucial that R&D for a vibrant dark energy program in the 2030s be started now by supporting studies and technical R&D that will allow embryonic proposals to mature. Understanding dark energy, arguably the biggest unsolved mystery in both fundamental particle physics and cosmology, will remain one of the focal points of cosmology in the forthcoming decade.

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Data-Driven Reconstruction of Gravitationally Lensed Galaxies using Recurrent Inference Machines

We present a machine learning method for the reconstruction of the undistorted images of background sources in strongly lensed systems. This method treats the source as a pixelated image and utilizes the Recurrent Inference Machine (RIM) to iteratively reconstruct the background source given a lens model. Our architecture learns to minimize the likelihood of the model parameters (source pixels) given the data using the physical forward model (ray tracing simulations) while implicitly learning the prior of the source structure from the training data. This results in better performance compared to linear inversion methods, where the prior information is limited to the 2-point covariance of the source pixels approximated with a Gaussian form, and often specified in a relatively arbitrary manner. We combine our source reconstruction network with a convolutional neural network that predicts the parameters of the mass distribution in the lensing galaxies directly from telescope images, allowing a fully automated reconstruction of the background source images and the foreground mass distribution.

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Optimizing the LSST Observing Strategy for Dark Energy Science: DESC Recommendations for the Wide-Fast-Deep Survey

Cosmology is one of the four science pillars of LSST, which promises to be transformative for our understanding of dark energy and dark matter. The LSST Dark Energy Science Collaboration (DESC) has been tasked with deriving constraints on cosmological parameters from LSST data. Each of the cosmological probes for LSST is heavily impacted by the choice of observing strategy. This white paper is written by the LSST DESC Observing Strategy Task Force (OSTF), which represents the entire collaboration, and aims to make recommendations on observing strategy that will benefit all cosmological analyses with LSST. It is accompanied by the DESC DDF (Deep Drilling Fields) white paper (Scolnic et al.). We use a variety of metrics to understand the effects of the observing strategy on measurements of weak lensing, large-scale structure, clusters, photometric redshifts, supernovae, strong lensing and kilonovae. In order to reduce systematic uncertainties, we conclude that the current baseline observing strategy needs to be significantly modified to result in the best possible cosmological constraints. We provide some key recommendations: moving the WFD (Wide-Fast-Deep) footprint to avoid regions of high extinction, taking visit pairs in different filters, changing the 2x15s snaps to a single exposure to improve efficiency, focusing on strategies that reduce long gaps (>15 days) between observations, and prioritizing spatial uniformity at several intervals during the 10-year survey.

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A Big Sky Approach to Cadence Diplomacy

The LSST survey was designed to deliver transformative results for four primary objectives: constraining dark energy and dark matter, taking an inventory of the Solar System, exploring the transient optical sky, and mapping the Milky Way. While the LSST Wide-Fast-Deep survey and accompanying Deep Drilling and mini-surveys will be ground-breaking for each of these areas, there remain competing demands on the survey area, depth, and temporal coverage amid a desire to maximize all three. In this white paper, we seek to address a principal source of tension between the different LSST science collaborations, that of the survey area and depth that they each need in the parts of the sky that they care about. We present simple tools which can be used to explore trades between the area surveyed by LSST and the number of visits available per field and then use these tools to propose a change to the baseline survey strategy. Specifically, we propose to reconfigure the WFD footprint to consist of low-extinction regions (limited by galactic latitude), with the number of visits per field in WFD limited by the LSST Science Requirements Document (SRD) design goal, and suggest assignment of the remaining LSST visits to the full visible LSST sky. This proposal addresses concerns with the WFD footprint raised by the DESC (as 25 percent of the current baseline WFD region is not usable for dark energy science due to MW dust extinction), eases the time required for the NES and SCP mini-surveys (since in our proposal they would partially fall into the modified WFD footprint), raises the number of visits previously assigned to the GP region, and increases the overlap with DESI and other Northern hemisphere follow-up facilities. This proposal alleviates many of the current concerns of Science Collaborations that represent the four scientific pillars of LSST and provides a Big Sky approach to cadence diplomacy.

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