arXiv subjects

Phil Marshall

Publications and source records attributed to Phil Marshall.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2018

Optimizing the LSST Observing Strategy for Dark Energy Science: DESC Recommendations for the Deep Drilling Fields and other Special Programs

We review the measurements of dark energy enabled by observations of the Deep Drilling Fields and the optimization of survey design for cosmological measurements. This white paper is the result of efforts by the LSST DESC Observing Strategy Task Force (OSTF), which represents the entire collaboration, and aims to make recommendations on observing strategy for the DDFs that will benefit all cosmological analyses with LSST. It is accompanied by the DESC-WFD white paper (Lochner et al.). We argue for altering the nominal deep drilling plan to have $>6$ month seasons, interweaving $gri$ and $zy$ observations every 3 days with 2, 4, 8, 25, 4 visits in $grizy$, respectively. These recommendations are guided by metrics optimizing constraints on dark energy and mitigation of systematic uncertainties, including specific requirements on total number of visits after Y1 and Y10 for photometric redshifts (photo-$z$) and weak lensing systematics. We specify the precise locations for the previously-chosen LSST deep fields (ELAIS-S1, XMM-LSS, CDF-S, and COSMOS) and recommend Akari Deep Field South as the planned fifth deep field in order to synergize with Euclid and WFIRST. Our recommended DDF strategy uses $6.2\%$ of the LSST survey time. We briefly discuss synergy with white papers from other collaborations, as well as additional mini-surveys and Target-of-Opportunity programs that lead to better measurements of dark energy.

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arXiv2017

Fundamental Physics with the Hubble Space Telescope

Cosmology is intrinsically intertwined with questions in fundamental physics. The existence of non-baryonic dark matter requires new physics beyond the Standard Model of elemenatary-particle interactions and Einstein's general relativity, as does the accelerating expansion of the universe. Current tensions between various cosmological measurements may be harbingers of yet more new physics. Progress on understanding dark matter and cosmic acceleration requires long term, high-precision measurements and excellent control of systematics, demanding observational programs that are often outside the discovery/characterization mode that drives many areas of astronomy. We outline potential programs through which the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) could have a major impact on issues in fundamental physics in the coming years. To realize this impact, we suggest the introduction of a "HST Fundamental Physics" observational program that would be subject to a modified proposal and review process.

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arXiv2017

Scientific Synergy Between LSST and Euclid

Euclid and the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST) are poised to dramatically change the astronomy landscape early in the next decade. The combination of high cadence, deep, wide-field optical photometry from LSST with high resolution, wide-field optical photometry and near-infrared photometry and spectroscopy from Euclid will be powerful for addressing a wide range of astrophysical questions. We explore Euclid/LSST synergy, ignoring the political issues associated with data access to focus on the scientific, technical, and financial benefits of coordination. We focus primarily on dark energy cosmology, but also discuss galaxy evolution, transient objects, solar system science, and galaxy cluster studies. We concentrate on synergies that require coordination in cadence or survey overlap, or would benefit from pixel-level co-processing that is beyond the scope of what is currently planned, rather than scientific programs that could be accomplished only at the catalog level without coordination in data processing or survey strategies. We provide two quantitative examples of scientific synergies: the decrease in photo-z errors (benefitting many science cases) when high resolution Euclid data are used for LSST photo-z determination, and the resulting increase in weak lensing signal-to-noise ratio from smaller photo-z errors. We briefly discuss other areas of coordination, including high performance computing resources and calibration data. Finally, we address concerns about the loss of independence and potential cross-checks between the two missions and potential consequences of not collaborating.

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arXiv2017

Models of gravitational lens candidates from Space Warps CFHTLS

We report modelling follow-up of recently-discovered gravitational-lens candidates in the Canada France Hawaii Telescope Legacy Survey. Lens modelling was done by a small group of specially-interested volunteers from the SpaceWarps citizen-science community who originally found the candidate lenses. Models are categorised according to seven diagnostics indicating (a) the image morphology and how clear or indistinct it is, (b) whether the mass map and synthetic lensed image appear to be plausible, and (c) how the lens-model mass compares with the stellar mass and the abundance-matched halo mass. The lensing masses range from ~10^11 Msun to >10^13 Msun. Preliminary estimates of the stellar masses show a smaller spread in stellar mass (except for two lenses): a factor of a few below or above ~10^11 Msun. Therefore, we expect the stellar-to-total mass fraction to decline sharply as lensing mass increases. The most massive system with a convincing model is J1434+522 (SW05). The two low-mass outliers are J0206-095 (SW19) and J2217+015 (SW42); if these two are indeed lenses, they probe an interesting regime of very low star-formation efficiency. Some improvements to the modelling software (SpaghettiLens), and discussion of strategies regarding scaling to future surveys with more and frequent discoveries, are included.

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arXiv2017

Science-Driven Optimization of the LSST Observing Strategy

The Large Synoptic Survey Telescope is designed to provide an unprecedented optical imaging dataset that will support investigations of our Solar System, Galaxy and Universe, across half the sky and over ten years of repeated observation. However, exactly how the LSST observations will be taken (the observing strategy or "cadence") is not yet finalized. In this dynamically-evolving community white paper, we explore how the detailed performance of the anticipated science investigations is expected to depend on small changes to the LSST observing strategy. Using realistic simulations of the LSST schedule and observation properties, we design and compute diagnostic metrics and Figures of Merit that provide quantitative evaluations of different observing strategies, analyzing their impact on a wide range of proposed science projects. This is work in progress: we are using this white paper to communicate to each other the relative merits of the observing strategy choices that could be made, in an effort to maximize the scientific value of the survey. The investigation of some science cases leads to suggestions for new strategies that could be simulated and potentially adopted. Notably, we find motivation for exploring departures from a spatially uniform annual tiling of the sky: focusing instead on different parts of the survey area in different years in a "rolling cadence" is likely to have significant benefits for a number of time domain and moving object astronomy projects. The communal assembly of a suite of quantified and homogeneously coded metrics is the vital first step towards an automated, systematic, science-based assessment of any given cadence simulation, that will enable the scheduling of the LSST to be as well-informed as possible.

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arXiv2017

Large Synoptic Survey Telescope Galaxies Science Roadmap

The Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST) will enable revolutionary studies of galaxies, dark matter, and black holes over cosmic time. The LSST Galaxies Science Collaboration has identified a host of preparatory research tasks required to leverage fully the LSST dataset for extragalactic science beyond the study of dark energy. This Galaxies Science Roadmap provides a brief introduction to critical extragalactic science to be conducted ahead of LSST operations, and a detailed list of preparatory science tasks including the motivation, activities, and deliverables associated with each. The Galaxies Science Roadmap will serve as a guiding document for researchers interested in conducting extragalactic science in anticipation of the forthcoming LSST era.

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arXiv2016

Maximizing Science in the Era of LSST: A Community-Based Study of Needed US Capabilities

The Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST) will be a discovery machine for the astronomy and physics communities, revealing astrophysical phenomena from the Solar System to the outer reaches of the observable Universe. While many discoveries will be made using LSST data alone, taking full scientific advantage of LSST will require ground-based optical-infrared (OIR) supporting capabilities, e.g., observing time on telescopes, instrumentation, computing resources, and other infrastructure. This community-based study identifies, from a science-driven perspective, capabilities that are needed to maximize LSST science. Expanding on the initial steps taken in the 2015 OIR System Report, the study takes a detailed, quantitative look at the capabilities needed to accomplish six representative LSST-enabled science programs that connect closely with scientific priorities from the 2010 decadal surveys. The study prioritizes the resources needed to accomplish the science programs and highlights ways that existing, planned, and future resources could be positioned to accomplish the science goals.

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arXiv2015

Gravitational lens modelling in a citizen science context

We develop a method to enable collaborative modelling of gravitational lenses and lens candidates, that could be used by non-professional lens enthusiasts. It uses an existing free-form modelling program (glass), but enables the input to this code to be provided in a novel way, via a user-generated diagram that is essentially a sketch of an arrival-time surface. We report on an implementation of this method, SpaghettiLens, which has been tested in a modelling challenge using 29 simulated lenses drawn from a larger set created for the Space Warps citizen science strong lens search. We find that volunteers from this online community asserted the image parities and time ordering consistently in some lenses, but made errors in other lenses depending on the image morphology. While errors in image parity and time ordering lead to large errors in the mass distribution, the enclosed mass was found to be more robust: the model-derived Einstein radii found by the volunteers were consistent with those produced by one of the professional team, suggesting that given the appropriate tools, gravitational lens modelling is a data analysis activity that can be crowd-sourced to good effect. Ideas for improvement are discussed, these include (a) overcoming the tendency of the models to be shallower than the correct answer in test cases, leading to systematic overestimation of the Einstein radius by 10 per cent at present, and (b) detailed modelling of arcs.

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arXiv2014

Strong Lens Time Delay Challenge: II. Results of TDC1

We present the results of the first strong lens time delay challenge. The motivation, experimental design, and entry level challenge are described in a companion paper. This paper presents the main challenge, TDC1, which consisted of analyzing thousands of simulated light curves blindly. The observational properties of the light curves cover the range in quality obtained for current targeted efforts (e.g.,~COSMOGRAIL) and expected from future synoptic surveys (e.g.,~LSST), and include simulated systematic errors. \nteamsA\ teams participated in TDC1, submitting results from \nmethods\ different method variants. After a describing each method, we compute and analyze basic statistics measuring accuracy (or bias) $A$, goodness of fit $χ^2$, precision $P$, and success rate $f$. For some methods we identify outliers as an important issue. Other methods show that outliers can be controlled via visual inspection or conservative quality control. Several methods are competitive, i.e., give $|A|<0.03$, $P<0.03$, and $χ^2<1.5$, with some of the methods already reaching sub-percent accuracy. The fraction of light curves yielding a time delay measurement is typically in the range $f = $20--40\%. It depends strongly on the quality of the data: COSMOGRAIL-quality cadence and light curve lengths yield significantly higher $f$ than does sparser sampling. Taking the results of TDC1 at face value, we estimate that LSST should provide around 400 robust time-delay measurements, each with $P<0.03$ and $|A|<0.01$, comparable to current lens modeling uncertainties. In terms of observing strategies, we find that $A$ and $f$ depend mostly on season length, while P depends mostly on cadence and campaign duration.

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arXiv2010

Evidence for the accelerated expansion of the Universe from weak lensing tomography with COSMOS

We present a tomographic cosmological weak lensing analysis of the HST COSMOS Survey. Applying our lensing-optimized data reduction, principal component interpolation for the ACS PSF, and improved modelling of charge-transfer inefficiency, we measure a lensing signal which is consistent with pure gravitational modes and no significant shape systematics. We carefully estimate the statistical uncertainty from simulated COSMOS-like fields obtained from ray-tracing through the Millennium Simulation. We test our pipeline on simulated space-based data, recalibrate non-linear power spectrum corrections using the ray-tracing, employ photometric redshifts to reduce potential contamination by intrinsic galaxy alignments, and marginalize over systematic uncertainties. We find that the lensing signal scales with redshift as expected from General Relativity for a concordance LCDM cosmology, including the full cross-correlations between different redshift bins. For a flat LCDM cosmology, we measure sigma_8(Omega_m/0.3)^0.51=0.75+-0.08 from lensing, in perfect agreement with WMAP-5, yielding joint constraints Omega_m=0.266+0.025-0.023, sigma_8=0.802+0.028-0.029 (all 68% conf.). Dropping the assumption of flatness and using HST Key Project and BBN priors only, we find a negative deceleration parameter q_0 at 94.3% conf. from the tomographic lensing analysis, providing independent evidence for the accelerated expansion of the Universe. For a flat wCDM cosmology and prior w in [-2,0], we obtain w<-0.41 (90% conf.). Our dark energy constraints are still relatively weak solely due to the limited area of COSMOS. However, they provide an important demonstration for the usefulness of tomographic weak lensing measurements from space. (abridged)

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arXiv2009

An Atlas of Predicted Exotic Gravitational Lenses

Wide-field optical imaging surveys will contain tens of thousands of new strong gravitational lenses. Some of these will have new and unusual image configurations, and so will enable new applications: for example, systems with high image multiplicity will allow more detailed study of galaxy and group mass distributions, while high magnification is needed to super-resolve the faintest objects in the high redshift universe. Inspired by a set of six unusual lens systems [including five selected from the Sloan Lens ACS (SLACS) and Strong Lensing Legacy (SL2S) surveys, plus the cluster Abell 1703], we consider several types of multi-component, physically-motivated lens potentials, and use the ray-tracing code "glamroc" to predict exotic image configurations. We also investigate the effects of galaxy source profile and size, and use realistic sources to predict observable magnifications and estimate very approximate relative cross-sections. We find that lens galaxies with misaligned disks and bulges produce swallowtail and butterfly catastrophes, observable as "broken" Einstein rings. Binary or merging galaxies show elliptic umbilic catastrophes, leading to an unusual Y-shaped configuration of 4 merging images. While not the maximum magnification configuration possible, it offers the possibility of mapping the local small-scale mass distribution. We estimate the approximate abundance of each of these exotic galaxy-scale lenses to be ~1 per all-sky survey. In higher mass systems, a wide range of caustic structures are expected, as already seen in many cluster lens systems. We interpret the central ring and its counter-image in Abell 1703 as a "hyperbolic umbilic" configuration, with total magnification ~100 (depending on source size). The abundance of such configurations is also estimated to be ~1 per all-sky survey.

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arXiv2009

Direct Observation of Cosmic Strings via their Strong Gravitational Lensing Effect: II. Results from the HST/ACS Image Archive

We have searched 4.5 square degrees of archival HST/ACS images for cosmic strings, identifying close pairs of similar, faint galaxies and selecting groups whose alignment is consistent with gravitational lensing by a long, straight string. We find no evidence for cosmic strings in five large-area HST treasury surveys (covering a total of 2.22 square degrees), or in any of 346 multi-filter guest observer images (1.18 square degrees). Assuming that simulations ccurately predict the number of cosmic strings in the universe, this non-detection allows us to place upper limits on the unitless Universal cosmic string tension of G mu/c^2 < 2.3 x 10^-6, and cosmic string density of Omega_s < 2.1 x 10^-5 at the 95% confidence level (marginalising over the other parameter in each case). We find four dubious cosmic string candidates in 318 single filter guest observer images (1.08 square degrees), which we are unable to conclusively eliminate with existing data. The confirmation of any one of these candidates as cosmic strings would imply G mu/c^2 ~ 10^-6 and Omega_s ~ 10^-5. However, we estimate that there is at least a 92% chance that these string candidates are random alignments of galaxies. If we assume that these candidates are indeed false detections, our final limits on G mu/c^2 and Omega_s fall to 6.5 x 10^-7 and 7.3 x 10^-6. Due to the extensive sky coverage of the HST/ACS image archive, the above limits are universal. They are quite sensitive to the number of fields being searched, and could be further reduced by more than a factor of two using forthcoming HST data.

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arXiv2009

Strong gravitational lensing probes of the particle nature of dark matter

There is a vast menagerie of plausible candidates for the constituents of dark matter, both within and beyond extensions of the Standard Model of particle physics. Each of these candidates may have scattering (and other) cross section properties that are consistent with the dark matter abundance, BBN, and the most scales in the matter power spectrum; but which may have vastly different behavior at sub-galactic "cutoff" scales, below which dark matter density fluctuations are smoothed out. The only way to quantitatively measure the power spectrum behavior at sub-galactic scales at distances beyond the local universe, and indeed over cosmic time, is through probes available in multiply imaged strong gravitational lenses. Gravitational potential perturbations by dark matter substructure encode information in the observed relative magnifications, positions, and time delays in a strong lens. Each of these is sensitive to a different moment of the substructure mass function and to different effective mass ranges of the substructure. The time delay perturbations, in particular, are proving to be largely immune to the degeneracies and systematic uncertainties that have impacted exploitation of strong lenses for such studies. There is great potential for a coordinated theoretical and observational effort to enable a sophisticated exploitation of strong gravitational lenses as direct probes of dark matter properties. This opportunity motivates this white paper, and drives the need for: a) strong support of the theoretical work necessary to understand all astrophysical consequences for different dark matter candidates; and b) tailored observational campaigns, and even a fully dedicated mission, to obtain the requisite data.

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arXiv2008

Analytic models of plausible gravitational lens potentials

Gravitational lenses on galaxy scales are plausibly modelled as having ellipsoidal symmetry and a universal dark matter density profile, with a Sersic profile to describe the distribution of baryonic matter. Predicting all lensing effects requires knowledge of the total lens potential: in this work we give analytic forms for that of the above hybrid model. Emphasising that complex lens potentials can be constructed from simpler components in linear combination, we provide a recipe for attaining elliptical symmetry in either projected mass or lens potential. We also provide analytic formulae for the lens potentials of Sersic profiles for integer and half-integer index. We then present formulae describing the gravitational lensing effects due to smoothly-truncated universal density profiles in cold dark matter model. For our isolated haloes the density profile falls off as radius to the minus fifth or seventh power beyond the tidal radius, functional forms that allow all orders of lens potential derivatives to be calculated analytically, while ensuring a non-divergent total mass. We show how the observables predicted by this profile differ from that of the original infinite-mass NFW profile. Expressions for the gravitational flexion are highlighted. We show how decreasing the tidal radius allows stripped haloes to be modelled, providing a framework for a fuller investigation of dark matter substructure in galaxies and clusters. Finally we remark on the need for finite mass halo profiles when doing cosmological ray-tracing simulations, and the need for readily-calculable higher order derivatives of the lens potential when studying catastrophes in strong lenses.

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arXiv2008

Dark Matter and Baryons in the Most X-ray Luminous and Merging Galaxy Cluster RX J1347.5-1145

The galaxy cluster RX J1347-1145 is one of the most X-ray luminous and most massive clusters known. Its extreme mass makes it a prime target for studying issues addressing cluster formation and cosmology. In this paper we present new high-resolution HST/ACS and Chandra X-ray data. The high resolution and sensitivity of ACS enabled us to detect and quantify several new multiply imaged sources, we now use a total of eight for the strong lensing analysis. Combining this information with shape measurements of weak lensing sources in the central regions of the cluster, we derive a high-resolution, absolutely-calibrated mass map. This map provides the best available quantification of the total mass of the central part of the cluster to date. We compare the reconstructed mass with that inferred from the new Chandra X-ray data, and conclude that both mass estimates agree extremely well in the observed region, namely within 400 / h_70 kpc of the cluster center. In addition we study the major baryonic components (gas and stars) and hence derive the dark matter distribution in the center of the cluster. We find that the dark matter and baryons are both centered on the BCG within the uncertainties (alignment is better than <10 kpc). We measure the corresponding 1-D profiles and find that dark matter distribution is consistent with both NFW and cored profiles, indicating that a more extended radial analysis is needed to pinpoint the concentration parameter, and hence the inner slope of the dark matter profile.

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arXiv2008

AMUSE-Virgo I. Super-massive black holes in low-mass spheroids

We present the first results from the AGN Multiwavelength Survey of Early-type galaxies in the Virgo cluster (AMUSE-Virgo). This large program targets 100 early-type galaxies with the Advanced CCD Imaging Spectrometer on board the Chandra X-ray Observatory and the Multi-band Imaging Photometer on board the Spitzer Space Telescope, with the aim of providing an unbiased census of low-level super-massive black hole (SMBH) activity in the local universe. Here we report on the Chandra observations of the first 16 targets, and combine them with results from archival data of another, typically more massive, 16 targets. Point-like X-ray emission from a position coincident with the optical nucleus is detected in 50% of the galaxies (down to our completeness limit of ~4E+38 erg/sec). Two of the X-ray nuclei are hosted by galaxies (VCC1178=N4464 and VCC1297=N4486B) with absolute B magnitudes fainter than -18, where nuclear star clusters are known to become increasingly common. After carefully accounting for possible contamination from low mass X-ray binaries, we argue that the detected nuclear X-ray sources are most likely powered by low-level accretion on to a SMBH, with a <11% chance contamination in VCC1178, where a star cluster is barely resolvable in archival Hubble Space Telescope images. Based on black hole mass estimates from the global properties of the host galaxies, all the detected nuclei are highly sub-Eddington, with luminosities in the range -8.4<log(L_0.3-10keV/L_Edd)<-5.9. The incidence of nuclear X-ray activity increases with the stellar mass M_star of the host galaxy: only between 3-44% of the galaxies with M_star<1E+10 M_Sun harbor an X-ray active SMBH. The fraction rises to between 49-87% in galaxies with stellar mass above 1E+10 M_Sun (at the 95% confidence level).

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arXiv2007

A Bayesian approach to strong lensing modelling of galaxy clusters

In this paper, we describe a procedure for modelling strong lensing galaxy clusters with parametric methods, and to rank models quantitatively using the Bayesian evidence. We use a publicly available Markov chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC) sampler ('Bayesys'), allowing us to avoid local minima in the likelihood functions. To illustrate the power of the MCMC technique, we simulate three clusters of galaxies, each composed of a cluster-scale halo and a set of perturbing galaxy-scale subhalos. We ray-trace three light beams through each model to produce a catalogue of multiple images, and then use the MCMC sampler to recover the model parameters in the three different lensing configurations. We find that, for typical Hubble Space Telescope (HST)-quality imaging data, the total mass in the Einstein radius is recovered with ~1-5% error according to the considered lensing configuration. However, we find that the mass of the galaxies is strongly degenerated with the cluster mass when no multiple images appear in the cluster centre. The mass of the galaxies is generally recovered with a 20% error, largely due to the poorly constrained cut-off radius. Finally, we describe how to rank models quantitatively using the Bayesian evidence. We confirm the ability of strong lensing to constrain the mass profile in the central region of galaxy clusters in this way. Ultimately, such a method applied to strong lensing clusters with a very large number of multiple images may provide unique geometrical constraints on cosmology. The implementation of the MCMC sampler used in this paper has been done within the framework of the Lenstool software package, which is publicly available.

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arXiv2007

Direct Observation of Cosmic Strings via their Strong Gravitational Lensing Effect: I. Predictions for High Resolution Imaging Surveys

We use current theoretical estimates for the density of long cosmic strings to predict the number of strong gravitational lensing events in astronomical imaging surveys as a function of angular resolution and survey area. We show that angular resolution is the most important factor, and that interesting limits on the dimensionless string tension Gmu/c^2 can be obtained by existing and planned surveys. At the resolution of the Hubble Space Telescope (0.14"), it is sufficient to survey of order a few square degrees -- well within reach of the current HST archive -- to probe the regime Gmu/c^2 ~ 10^{-7}. If lensing by cosmic strings is not detected, such a survey would improve the limit on the string tension by a factor of two over that available from the cosmic microwave background. Future high resolution imaging surveys, covering a few hundred square degrees or more, either from space in the optical or from large-format radio telescopes on the ground, would be able to further lower this limit to Gmu/c^2 < 10^{-8}.

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