arXiv subjects

Philip S. Thomas

Publications and source records attributed to Philip S. Thomas.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2022

Enforcing Delayed-Impact Fairness Guarantees

Recent research has shown that seemingly fair machine learning models, when used to inform decisions that have an impact on peoples' lives or well-being (e.g., applications involving education, employment, and lending), can inadvertently increase social inequality in the long term. This is because prior fairness-aware algorithms only consider static fairness constraints, such as equal opportunity or demographic parity. However, enforcing constraints of this type may result in models that have negative long-term impact on disadvantaged individuals and communities. We introduce ELF (Enforcing Long-term Fairness), the first classification algorithm that provides high-confidence fairness guarantees in terms of long-term, or delayed, impact. We prove that the probability that ELF returns an unfair solution is less than a user-specified tolerance and that (under mild assumptions), given sufficient training data, ELF is able to find and return a fair solution if one exists. We show experimentally that our algorithm can successfully mitigate long-term unfairness.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

Edge-Compatible Reinforcement Learning for Recommendations

Most reinforcement learning (RL) recommendation systems designed for edge computing must either synchronize during recommendation selection or depend on an unprincipled patchwork collection of algorithms. In this work, we build on asynchronous coagent policy gradient algorithms \citep{kostas2020asynchronous} to propose a principled solution to this problem. The class of algorithms that we propose can be distributed over the internet and run asynchronously and in real-time. When a given edge fails to respond to a request for data with sufficient speed, this is not a problem; the algorithm is designed to function and learn in the edge setting, and network issues are part of this setting. The result is a principled, theoretically grounded RL algorithm designed to be distributed in and learn in this asynchronous environment. In this work, we describe this algorithm and a proposed class of architectures in detail, and demonstrate that they work well in practice in the asynchronous setting, even as the network quality degrades.

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arXiv2022

Adaptive Rollout Length for Model-Based RL Using Model-Free Deep RL

Model-based reinforcement learning promises to learn an optimal policy from fewer interactions with the environment compared to model-free reinforcement learning by learning an intermediate model of the environment in order to predict future interactions. When predicting a sequence of interactions, the rollout length, which limits the prediction horizon, is a critical hyperparameter as accuracy of the predictions diminishes in the regions that are further away from real experience. As a result, with a longer rollout length, an overall worse policy is learned in the long run. Thus, the hyperparameter provides a trade-off between quality and efficiency. In this work, we frame the problem of tuning the rollout length as a meta-level sequential decision-making problem that optimizes the final policy learned by model-based reinforcement learning given a fixed budget of environment interactions by adapting the hyperparameter dynamically based on feedback from the learning process, such as accuracy of the model and the remaining budget of interactions. We use model-free deep reinforcement learning to solve the meta-level decision problem and demonstrate that our approach outperforms common heuristic baselines on two well-known reinforcement learning environments.

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arXiv2021

SOPE: Spectrum of Off-Policy Estimators

Many sequential decision making problems are high-stakes and require off-policy evaluation (OPE) of a new policy using historical data collected using some other policy. One of the most common OPE techniques that provides unbiased estimates is trajectory based importance sampling (IS). However, due to the high variance of trajectory IS estimates, importance sampling methods based on state-action visitation distributions (SIS) have recently been adopted. Unfortunately, while SIS often provides lower variance estimates for long horizons, estimating the state-action distribution ratios can be challenging and lead to biased estimates. In this paper, we present a new perspective on this bias-variance trade-off and show the existence of a spectrum of estimators whose endpoints are SIS and IS. Additionally, we also establish a spectrum for doubly-robust and weighted version of these estimators. We provide empirical evidence that estimators in this spectrum can be used to trade-off between the bias and variance of IS and SIS and can achieve lower mean-squared error than both IS and SIS.

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arXiv2021

Universal Off-Policy Evaluation

When faced with sequential decision-making problems, it is often useful to be able to predict what would happen if decisions were made using a new policy. Those predictions must often be based on data collected under some previously used decision-making rule. Many previous methods enable such off-policy (or counterfactual) estimation of the expected value of a performance measure called the return. In this paper, we take the first steps towards a universal off-policy estimator (UnO) -- one that provides off-policy estimates and high-confidence bounds for any parameter of the return distribution. We use UnO for estimating and simultaneously bounding the mean, variance, quantiles/median, inter-quantile range, CVaR, and the entire cumulative distribution of returns. Finally, we also discuss Uno's applicability in various settings, including fully observable, partially observable (i.e., with unobserved confounders), Markovian, non-Markovian, stationary, smoothly non-stationary, and discrete distribution shifts.

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arXiv2021

Multi-Objective SPIBB: Seldonian Offline Policy Improvement with Safety Constraints in Finite MDPs

We study the problem of Safe Policy Improvement (SPI) under constraints in the offline Reinforcement Learning (RL) setting. We consider the scenario where: (i) we have a dataset collected under a known baseline policy, (ii) multiple reward signals are received from the environment inducing as many objectives to optimize. We present an SPI formulation for this RL setting that takes into account the preferences of the algorithm's user for handling the trade-offs for different reward signals while ensuring that the new policy performs at least as well as the baseline policy along each individual objective. We build on traditional SPI algorithms and propose a novel method based on Safe Policy Iteration with Baseline Bootstrapping (SPIBB, Laroche et al., 2019) that provides high probability guarantees on the performance of the agent in the true environment. We show the effectiveness of our method on a synthetic grid-world safety task as well as in a real-world critical care context to learn a policy for the administration of IV fluids and vasopressors to treat sepsis.

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arXiv2021

Towards Practical Mean Bounds for Small Samples

Historically, to bound the mean for small sample sizes, practitioners have had to choose between using methods with unrealistic assumptions about the unknown distribution (e.g., Gaussianity) and methods like Hoeffding's inequality that use weaker assumptions but produce much looser (wider) intervals. In 1969, Anderson (1969) proposed a mean confidence interval strictly better than or equal to Hoeffding's whose only assumption is that the distribution's support is contained in an interval $[a,b]$. For the first time since then, we present a new family of bounds that compares favorably to Anderson's. We prove that each bound in the family has {\em guaranteed coverage}, i.e., it holds with probability at least $1-α$ for all distributions on an interval $[a,b]$. Furthermore, one of the bounds is tighter than or equal to Anderson's for all samples. In simulations, we show that for many distributions, the gain over Anderson's bound is substantial.

math.ST↗

arXiv2021

High-Confidence Off-Policy (or Counterfactual) Variance Estimation

Many sequential decision-making systems leverage data collected using prior policies to propose a new policy. For critical applications, it is important that high-confidence guarantees on the new policy's behavior are provided before deployment, to ensure that the policy will behave as desired. Prior works have studied high-confidence off-policy estimation of the expected return, however, high-confidence off-policy estimation of the variance of returns can be equally critical for high-risk applications. In this paper, we tackle the previously open problem of estimating and bounding, with high confidence, the variance of returns from off-policy data

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arXiv2020

Towards Safe Policy Improvement for Non-Stationary MDPs

Many real-world sequential decision-making problems involve critical systems with financial risks and human-life risks. While several works in the past have proposed methods that are safe for deployment, they assume that the underlying problem is stationary. However, many real-world problems of interest exhibit non-stationarity, and when stakes are high, the cost associated with a false stationarity assumption may be unacceptable. We take the first steps towards ensuring safety, with high confidence, for smoothly-varying non-stationary decision problems. Our proposed method extends a type of safe algorithm, called a Seldonian algorithm, through a synthesis of model-free reinforcement learning with time-series analysis. Safety is ensured using sequential hypothesis testing of a policy's forecasted performance, and confidence intervals are obtained using wild bootstrap.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

A New Confidence Interval for the Mean of a Bounded Random Variable

We present a new method for constructing a confidence interval for the mean of a bounded random variable from samples of the random variable. We conjecture that the confidence interval has guaranteed coverage, i.e., that it contains the mean with high probability for all distributions on a bounded interval, for all samples sizes, and for all confidence levels. This new method provides confidence intervals that are competitive with those produced using Student's t-statistic, but does not rely on normality assumptions. In particular, its only requirement is that the distribution be bounded on a known finite interval.

math.ST↗

arXiv2020

Optimizing for the Future in Non-Stationary MDPs

Most reinforcement learning methods are based upon the key assumption that the transition dynamics and reward functions are fixed, that is, the underlying Markov decision process is stationary. However, in many real-world applications, this assumption is violated, and using existing algorithms may result in a performance lag. To proactively search for a good future policy, we present a policy gradient algorithm that maximizes a forecast of future performance. This forecast is obtained by fitting a curve to the counter-factual estimates of policy performance over time, without explicitly modeling the underlying non-stationarity. The resulting algorithm amounts to a non-uniform reweighting of past data, and we observe that minimizing performance over some of the data from past episodes can be beneficial when searching for a policy that maximizes future performance. We show that our algorithm, called Prognosticator, is more robust to non-stationarity than two online adaptation techniques, on three simulated problems motivated by real-world applications.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

Reinforcement Learning for Strategic Recommendations

Strategic recommendations (SR) refer to the problem where an intelligent agent observes the sequential behaviors and activities of users and decides when and how to interact with them to optimize some long-term objectives, both for the user and the business. These systems are in their infancy in the industry and in need of practical solutions to some fundamental research challenges. At Adobe research, we have been implementing such systems for various use-cases, including points of interest recommendations, tutorial recommendations, next step guidance in multi-media editing software, and ad recommendation for optimizing lifetime value. There are many research challenges when building these systems, such as modeling the sequential behavior of users, deciding when to intervene and offer recommendations without annoying the user, evaluating policies offline with high confidence, safe deployment, non-stationarity, building systems from passive data that do not contain past recommendations, resource constraint optimization in multi-user systems, scaling to large and dynamic actions spaces, and handling and incorporating human cognitive biases. In this paper we cover various use-cases and research challenges we solved to make these systems practical.

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arXiv2020

Evaluating the Performance of Reinforcement Learning Algorithms

Performance evaluations are critical for quantifying algorithmic advances in reinforcement learning. Recent reproducibility analyses have shown that reported performance results are often inconsistent and difficult to replicate. In this work, we argue that the inconsistency of performance stems from the use of flawed evaluation metrics. Taking a step towards ensuring that reported results are consistent, we propose a new comprehensive evaluation methodology for reinforcement learning algorithms that produces reliable measurements of performance both on a single environment and when aggregated across environments. We demonstrate this method by evaluating a broad class of reinforcement learning algorithms on standard benchmark tasks.

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arXiv2020

Asynchronous Coagent Networks

Coagent policy gradient algorithms (CPGAs) are reinforcement learning algorithms for training a class of stochastic neural networks called coagent networks. In this work, we prove that CPGAs converge to locally optimal policies. Additionally, we extend prior theory to encompass asynchronous and recurrent coagent networks. These extensions facilitate the straightforward design and analysis of hierarchical reinforcement learning algorithms like the option-critic, and eliminate the need for complex derivations of customized learning rules for these algorithms.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

Lifelong Learning with a Changing Action Set

In many real-world sequential decision making problems, the number of available actions (decisions) can vary over time. While problems like catastrophic forgetting, changing transition dynamics, changing rewards functions, etc. have been well-studied in the lifelong learning literature, the setting where the action set changes remains unaddressed. In this paper, we present an algorithm that autonomously adapts to an action set whose size changes over time. To tackle this open problem, we break it into two problems that can be solved iteratively: inferring the underlying, unknown, structure in the space of actions and optimizing a policy that leverages this structure. We demonstrate the efficiency of this approach on large-scale real-world lifelong learning problems.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

Is the Policy Gradient a Gradient?

The policy gradient theorem describes the gradient of the expected discounted return with respect to an agent's policy parameters. However, most policy gradient methods drop the discount factor from the state distribution and therefore do not optimize the discounted objective. What do they optimize instead? This has been an open question for several years, and this lack of theoretical clarity has lead to an abundance of misstatements in the literature. We answer this question by proving that the update direction approximated by most methods is not the gradient of any function. Further, we argue that algorithms that follow this direction are not guaranteed to converge to a "reasonable" fixed point by constructing a counterexample wherein the fixed point is globally pessimal with respect to both the discounted and undiscounted objectives. We motivate this work by surveying the literature and showing that there remains a widespread misunderstanding regarding discounted policy gradient methods, with errors present even in highly-cited papers published at top conferences.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

Reinforcement Learning When All Actions are Not Always Available

The Markov decision process (MDP) formulation used to model many real-world sequential decision making problems does not efficiently capture the setting where the set of available decisions (actions) at each time step is stochastic. Recently, the stochastic action set Markov decision process (SAS-MDP) formulation has been proposed, which better captures the concept of a stochastic action set. In this paper we argue that existing RL algorithms for SAS-MDPs can suffer from potential divergence issues, and present new policy gradient algorithms for SAS-MDPs that incorporate variance reduction techniques unique to this setting, and provide conditions for their convergence. We conclude with experiments that demonstrate the practicality of our approaches on tasks inspired by real-life use cases wherein the action set is stochastic.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

Learning Reusable Options for Multi-Task Reinforcement Learning

Reinforcement learning (RL) has become an increasingly active area of research in recent years. Although there are many algorithms that allow an agent to solve tasks efficiently, they often ignore the possibility that prior experience related to the task at hand might be available. For many practical applications, it might be unfeasible for an agent to learn how to solve a task from scratch, given that it is generally a computationally expensive process; however, prior experience could be leveraged to make these problems tractable in practice. In this paper, we propose a framework for exploiting existing experience by learning reusable options. We show that after an agent learns policies for solving a small number of problems, we are able to use the trajectories generated from those policies to learn reusable options that allow an agent to quickly learn how to solve novel and related problems.

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