arXiv subjects

Philipp Hess

Publications and source records attributed to Philipp Hess.

11 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Flexible generation of daily Earth system model projections across radiative forcing scenarios

Earth system model (ESM) projections of the climate system's response to anthropogenic forcing are central to assess the impacts of climate change and inform adaptation and mitigation policies. However, given their high computational cost, projections are only made for a limited set of standardized forcing scenarios with limited temporal extent, such as the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), the spatiotemporal resolution remains too low for direct impact assessments, and uncertainties cannot be comprehensively quantified. Recent data-driven models offer efficient and accurate high-resolution simulations for weather prediction, but cannot extrapolate to future greenhouse gas concentrations because they cannot capture the responses to unprecedented forcing, limiting their value for climate change projections. Here, we combine response theory with a tailored generative machine learning framework to address this challenge. Our approach extracts the physical forced response to radiative forcing from monthly low-resolution ESM fields, and uses this response to guide a generative model to infer consistent daily global high-resolution temperature and precipitation projections. Our probabilistic approach generalizes across ESMs and provides long-term, bias-corrected responses to radiative forcing at high spatiotemporal resolution. It efficiently generates large ensembles needed for uncertainty quantification, effectively fills the gaps between existing SSPs, and readily extends climate projections to 2300 and beyond. Our framework hence complements ESM projections by providing efficient, stable, and high spatiotemporal resolution long-term climate projection ensembles across emission scenarios, enabling detailed impact assessment and exploration of long-term climate commitment.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2026

Generative deep learning improves reconstruction of global historical climate records

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic climate change relies on historical instrumental data, yet observations from the early 20th century are sparse, fragmented, and uncertain. Conventional reconstructions rely on disparate statistical interpolation, which tends to smooth local features and create unphysical artifacts, often leading to an underestimation of intrinsic variability and extremes. While recent machine learning approaches have improved reconstruction accuracy, they remain confined to purely spatial inpainting of coarse-resolution fields. Here, we present a unified, probabilistic generative deep learning framework that overcomes these limitations and reveals previously unresolved historical climate variability back to 1850. Leveraging a learned generative prior of Earth system dynamics, our model performs probabilistic inference to estimate spatiotemporally consistent historical temperature and precipitation fields from sparse observations. Our approach preserves the higher-order statistics of climate dynamics, transforming reconstruction into a robust uncertainty-aware assessment. We demonstrate that our reconstruction mitigates the smoothing effects inherent in widely used historical reference products, including those underlying IPCC assessments, especially regarding extreme weather events. Notably, we uncover higher early 20th-century global warming levels compared to existing reconstructions, primarily driven by more pronounced polar warming, with mean Arctic warming trends exceeding established benchmarks by 0.15--0.29C per decade for 1900--1980. Conversely, for the modern era, our reconstruction indicates that the broad Arctic warming trend is likely overestimated in recent assessments, yet explicitly resolves previously unrecognized intense, localized hotspots in the Barents Sea and Northeastern Greenland.

physics.geo-ph↗

arXiv2025

NeuralCrop: Combining physics and machine learning for improved crop yield projections

Global gridded crop models (GGCMs) are crucial to project the impacts of climate change on agricultural productivity and assess associated risks for food security. Despite decades of development, state-of-the-art GGCMs retain substantial uncertainties stemming from process representations. Recently, machine learning approaches trained on observational data provide alternatives in crop yield projections. However, these models have not demonstrated improved performance over traditional GGCMs and are not suitable for projecting crop yields under a changing climate due to their poor out-of-distribution generalization. Here we introduce NeuralCrop, a differentiable hybrid GGCM that combines the strengths of an advanced process-based GGCM, resolving important processes explicitly, with data-driven machine learning components. NeuralCrop is first trained to emulate a competitive GGCM before it is fine-tuned on observational data. We show that NeuralCrop produces projections with accuracy comparable to state-of-the-art GGCMs across site-level and large-scale crop simulations. NeuralCrop can accurately project the interannual yield variability in European wheat regions and the US Corn Belt. Capturing yield anomalies is essential for developing adaptation strategies in the context of climate change. NeuralCrop can more accurately reproduce yield anomalies across various climatic conditions, with particularly notable improvements under drought extremes. For large-scale, long-term simulations, our approach is orders of magnitude more computationally efficient. Our results show that end-to-end hybrid crop modelling offers more reliable yield projections that are essential for food risk assessments under climate change and intensifying extreme weather events.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Physics-constrained generative machine learning-based high-resolution downscaling of Greenland's surface mass balance and surface temperature

Accurate, high-resolution projections of the Greenland ice sheet's surface mass balance (SMB) and surface temperature are essential for understanding future sea-level rise, yet current approaches are either computationally demanding or limited to coarse spatial scales. Here, we introduce a novel physics-constrained generative modeling framework based on a consistency model (CM) to downscale low-resolution SMB and surface temperature fields by a factor of up to 32 (from 160 km to 5 km grid spacing) in a few sampling steps. The CM is trained on monthly outputs of the regional climate model MARv3.12 and conditioned on ice-sheet topography and insolation. By enforcing a hard conservation constraint during inference, we ensure approximate preservation of SMB and temperature sums on the coarse spatial scale as well as robust generalization to extreme climate states without retraining. On the test set, our constrained CM achieves a continued ranked probability score of 6.31 mmWE for the SMB and 0.1 K for the surface temperature, outperforming interpolation-based downscaling. Together with spatial power-spectral analysis, we demonstrate that the CM faithfully reproduces variability across spatial scales. We further apply bias-corrected outputs of the NorESM2 Earth System Model as inputs to our CM, to demonstrate the potential of our model to directly downscale ESM fields. Our approach delivers realistic, high-resolution climate forcing for ice-sheet simulations with fast inference and can be readily integrated into Earth-system and ice-sheet model workflows to improve projections of the future contribution to sea-level rise from Greenland and potentially other ice sheets and glaciers too.

physics.geo-ph↗

arXiv2025

Generating time-consistent dynamics with discriminator-guided image diffusion models

Realistic temporal dynamics are crucial for many video generation, processing and modelling applications, e.g. in computational fluid dynamics, weather prediction, or long-term climate simulations. Video diffusion models (VDMs) are the current state-of-the-art method for generating highly realistic dynamics. However, training VDMs from scratch can be challenging and requires large computational resources, limiting their wider application. Here, we propose a time-consistency discriminator that enables pretrained image diffusion models to generate realistic spatiotemporal dynamics. The discriminator guides the sampling inference process and does not require extensions or finetuning of the image diffusion model. We compare our approach against a VDM trained from scratch on an idealized turbulence simulation and a real-world global precipitation dataset. Our approach performs equally well in terms of temporal consistency, shows improved uncertainty calibration and lower biases compared to the VDM, and achieves stable centennial-scale climate simulations at daily time steps.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Generating realistic global precipitation fields from modelled atmospheric circulation

Improving the representation of precipitation in Earth system models (ESMs) is critical for assessing the impacts of climate change and especially of extreme events like floods and droughts. In existing ESMs, precipitation is not resolved explicitly, but represented by parameterizations. These typically rely on resolving approximated but computationally expensive column-based physics, not accounting for interactions between locations. They struggle to capture fine-scale precipitation processes and introduce significant biases. We present a novel approach, based on generative machine learning, which integrates a conditional diffusion model with a UNet architecture to generate accurate, high-resolution (0.25{\deg}) global daily precipitation fields from a small set of prognostic atmospheric variables. Unlike traditional parameterizations, our framework efficiently produces ensemble predictions, capturing uncertainties in precipitation, and does not require fine-tuning by hand. We train our model on the ERA5 reanalysis and present a method that allows us to apply it to unseen ESM data, enabling fast generation of probabilistic forecasts and climate scenarios. By leveraging interactions between global prognostic variables, our approach provides an alternative parameterization scheme that mitigates biases present in the ESM precipitation while maintaining consistency with its large-scale (annual) trends. This work demonstrates that complex precipitation patterns can be learned directly from large-scale atmospheric variables, offering a computationally efficient method to obtain high-resolution precipitation without the cost of running the dynamical model at such high resolution.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

A Generative Machine Learning Approach for Improving Precipitation from Earth System Models

Quantifying the impacts of anthropogenic global warming requires accurate Earth system model (ESM) simulations. Statistical bias correction and downscaling can be applied to reduce errors and increase the resolution of ESMs. However, existing methods, such as quantile mapping, cannot effectively improve spatial patterns or temporal dynamics. We address this problem with a purely generative machine learning approach, combining unpaired domain translation with a super-resolution foundation model. Our results show realistic spatial patterns and temporal dynamics as well as reduced distributional biases in the processed ESM simulation.

physics.geo-ph↗

arXiv2024

Conditional diffusion models for downscaling and bias correction of Earth system model precipitation

Climate change exacerbates extreme weather events like heavy rainfall and flooding. As these events cause severe socioeconomic damage, accurate high-resolution simulation of precipitation is imperative. However, existing Earth System Models (ESMs) struggle to resolve small-scale dynamics and suffer from biases. Traditional statistical bias correction and downscaling methods fall short in improving spatial structure, while recent deep learning methods lack controllability and suffer from unstable training. Here, we propose a machine learning framework for simultaneous bias correction and downscaling. We first map observational and ESM data to a shared embedding space, where both are unbiased towards each other, and then train a conditional diffusion model to reverse the mapping. Only observational data is used for the training, so that the diffusion model can be employed to correct and downscale any ESM field without need for retraining. Our approach ensures statistical fidelity and preserves spatial patterns larger than a chosen spatial correction scale. We demonstrate that our approach outperforms existing statistical and deep learning methods especially regarding extreme events.

physics.geo-ph↗

arXiv2024

Fast, Scale-Adaptive, and Uncertainty-Aware Downscaling of Earth System Model Fields with Generative Machine Learning

Accurate and high-resolution Earth system model (ESM) simulations are essential to assess the ecological and socio-economic impacts of anthropogenic climate change, but are computationally too expensive to be run at sufficiently high spatial resolution. Recent machine learning approaches have shown promising results in downscaling ESM simulations, outperforming state-of-the-art statistical approaches. However, existing methods require computationally costly retraining for each ESM and extrapolate poorly to climates unseen during training. We address these shortcomings by learning a consistency model (CM) that efficiently and accurately downscales arbitrary ESM simulations without retraining in a zero-shot manner. Our approach yields probabilistic downscaled fields at a resolution only limited by the observational reference data. We show that the CM outperforms state-of-the-art diffusion models at a fraction of computational cost while maintaining high controllability on the downscaling task. Further, our method generalizes to climate states unseen during training without explicitly formulated physical constraints.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2022

Deep learning for bias-correcting CMIP6-class Earth system models

The accurate representation of precipitation in Earth system models (ESMs) is crucial for reliable projections of the ecological and socioeconomic impacts in response to anthropogenic global warming. The complex cross-scale interactions of processes that produce precipitation are challenging to model, however, inducing potentially strong biases in ESM fields, especially regarding extremes. State-of-the-art bias correction methods only address errors in the simulated frequency distributions locally at every individual grid cell. Improving unrealistic spatial patterns of the ESM output, which would require spatial context, has not been possible so far. Here, we show that a post-processing method based on physically constrained generative adversarial networks (cGANs) can correct biases of a state-of-the-art, CMIP6-class ESM both in local frequency distributions and in the spatial patterns at once. While our method improves local frequency distributions equally well as gold-standard bias-adjustment frameworks, it strongly outperforms any existing methods in the correction of spatial patterns, especially in terms of the characteristic spatial intermittency of precipitation extremes.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2022

Physically Constrained Generative Adversarial Networks for Improving Precipitation Fields from Earth System Models

Precipitation results from complex processes across many scales, making its accurate simulation in Earth system models (ESMs) challenging. Existing post-processing methods can improve ESM simulations locally, but cannot correct errors in modelled spatial patterns. Here we propose a framework based on physically constrained generative adversarial networks (GANs) to improve local distributions and spatial structure simultaneously. We apply our approach to the computationally efficient ESM CM2Mc-LPJmL. Our method outperforms existing ones in correcting local distributions, and leads to strongly improved spatial patterns especially regarding the intermittency of daily precipitation. Notably, a double-peaked Intertropical Convergence Zone, a common problem in ESMs, is removed. Enforcing a physical constraint to preserve global precipitation sums, the GAN can generalize to future climate scenarios unseen during training. Feature attribution shows that the GAN identifies regions where the ESM exhibits strong biases. Our method constitutes a general framework for correcting ESM variables and enables realistic simulations at a fraction of the computational costs.

physics.ao-ph↗