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Philippe Heinrich

Publications and source records attributed to Philippe Heinrich.

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Feature quantization for parsimonious and interpretable predictive models

For regulatory and interpretability reasons, logistic regression is still widely used. To improve prediction accuracy and interpretability, a preprocessing step quantizing both continuous and categorical data is usually performed: continuous features are discretized and, if numerous, levels of categorical features are grouped. An even better predictive accuracy can be reached by embedding this quantization estimation step directly into the predictive estimation step itself. But doing so, the predictive loss has to be optimized on a huge set. To overcome this difficulty, we introduce a specific two-step optimization strategy: first, the optimization problem is relaxed by approximating discontinuous quantization functions by smooth functions; second, the resulting relaxed optimization problem is solved via a particular neural network. The good performances of this approach, which we call glmdisc, are illustrated on simulated and real data from the UCI library and Crédit Agricole Consumer Finance (a major European historic player in the consumer credit market).

stat.ME

Réintégration des refusés en Credit Scoring

The granting process of all credit institutions rejects applicants who seem risky regarding the repayment of their debt. A credit score is calculated and associated with a cut-off value beneath which an applicant is rejected. Developing a new score implies having a learning dataset in which the response variable good/bad borrower is known, so that rejects are de facto excluded from the learning process. We first introduce the context and some useful notations. Then we formalize if this particular sampling has consequences on the score's relevance. Finally, we elaborate on methods that use not-financed clients' characteristics and conclude that none of these methods are satisfactory in practice using data from Crédit Agricole Consumer Finance. ----- Un système d'octroi de crédit peut refuser des demandes de prêt jugées trop risquées. Au sein de ce système, le score de crédit fournit une valeur mesurant un risque de défaut, valeur qui est comparée à un seuil d'acceptabilité. Ce score est construit exclusivement sur des données de clients financés, contenant en particulier l'information `bon ou mauvais payeur', alors qu'il est par la suite appliqué à l'ensemble des demandes. Un tel score est-il statistiquement pertinent ? Dans cette note, nous précisons et formalisons cette question et étudions l'effet de l'absence des non-financés sur les scores élaborés. Nous présentons ensuite des méthodes pour réintégrer les non-financés et concluons sur leur inefficacité en pratique, à partir de données issues de Crédit Agricole Consumer Finance.

econ.GN

Optimal rates for finite mixture estimation

We study the rates of estimation of finite mixing distributions, that is, the parameters of the mixture. We prove that under some regularity and strong identifiability conditions, around a given mixing distribution with $m_0$ components, the optimal local minimax rate of estimation of a mixing distribution with $m$ components is $n^{-1/(4(m-m_0) + 2)}$. This corrects a previous paper by Chen (1995) in The Annals of Statistics. By contrast, it turns out that there are estimators with a (non-uniform) pointwise rate of estimation of $n^{-1/2}$ for all mixing distributions with a finite number of components.

math.ST

Minimax rates for finite mixture estimation

We prove that under some regularity and strong identifiability conditions, around a mixing distribution with $m_0$ components, the optimal local minimax rate of estimation of a mixture with $m$ components is $n^{-1/(4(m-m_0) + 2)}$. This corrects a previous paper by Chen (1995) in The Annals of Statistics.

math.ST

Level sets estimation and Vorob'ev expectation of random compact sets

The issue of a "mean shape" of a random set $X$ often arises, in particular in image analysis and pattern detection. There is no canonical definition but one possible approach is the so-called Vorob'ev expectation $\E_V(X)$, which is closely linked to quantile sets. In this paper, we propose a consistent and ready to use estimator of $\E_V(X)$ built from independent copies of $X$ with spatial discretization. The control of discretization errors is handled with a mild regularity assumption on the boundary of $X$: a not too large 'box counting' dimension. Some examples are developed and an application to cosmological data is presented.

math.PR

Coexistence probability in the last passage percolation model is $6-8\log2$

A competition model on $\N^{2}$ between three clusters and governed by directed last passage percolation is considered. We prove that coexistence, i.e. the three clusters are simultaneously unbounded, occurs with probability $6-8\log2$. When this happens, we also prove that the central cluster almost surely has a positive density on $\N^{2}$. Our results rely on three couplings, allowing to link the competition interfaces (which represent the borderlines between the clusters) to some particles in the multi-TASEP, and on recent results about collision in the multi-TASEP.

math.PR