arXiv subjects

Po-Hsuan Lin

Publications and source records attributed to Po-Hsuan Lin.

8 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Revisiting the Intra-Team Communication Method to Elicit Level-k Reasoning in Beauty Contests and 11-20 Games

How level-0 players behave and how they are perceived by higher-level players are central questions in the literature on level-k models of boundedly rational strategic reasoning. To study these twin questions, we apply the intra-team communication method developed by Burchardi and Penczynski (2014) to identify level-0 actions and beliefs in the canonical beauty contest game and in a variant of the 11-20 game of Goeree et al. (2018), in which behavior appears inconsistent with the standard level-k model. In the beauty contest game, we replicate Burchardi and Penczynski (2014)'s finding that elicited level-0 beliefs align with observed level-0 actions. In the variant of the 11-20 game, however, elicited level-0 beliefs and observed level-0 actions diverge, and both depart from the standard level-0 assumption, suggesting a complementary explanation for the behavioral pattern documented by Goeree et al. (2018).

econ.GN↗

arXiv2025

Virtual Observability in Sequential Play

When players make sequential decisions that are unobservable to one another, their behavior can nonetheless be influenced by knowing who moves first. This sequential structure, often referred to as "virtual observability," suggests that timing alone can shape expectations and choices, even when no information is revealed. The original notion of virtual observability, however, is an equilibrium refinement based on the timing structure and has no bite in games with a unique equilibrium. In this paper, we experimentally examine whether timing still affects behavior in such games, using the Traveler's Dilemma and the Trust Game. We find that in the sequential Traveler's Dilemma without observability, first movers tend to behave closer to the equilibrium prediction than in the simultaneous version. In contrast, timing without observability has no effect on behavior in the Trust Game.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2025

Strategy Method Effects in Centipede Games: An Optimal Design Approach

We explore the twin questions of when and why the strategy method creates behavioral distortions in the elicitation of choices in laboratory studies of sequential games. While such distortions have been widely documented, the theoretical forces driving these distortions remain poorly understood. In this paper, we compare behavior in six optimally designed centipede games, implemented under three different choice elicitation methods: the direct response method, the reduced strategy method and the full strategy method. These methods elicit behavioral strategies, reduced strategies, and complete strategies, respectively. We find significant behavioral differences across these elicitation methods -- differences that cannot be explained by standard game theory, but are consistent with the predictions of the Dynamic Cognitive Hierarchy solution (Lin and Palfrey, 2024), combined with quantal responses.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2025

Cursed Job Market Signaling

We study how cursedness, the tendency to neglect how other people's strategies depend on their private information, affects information transmission in Spence's job market signaling game. We characterize the Cursed Sequential Equilibrium and show that as players become more cursed, the worker obtains less education -- a costly signal that does not enhance productivity -- suggesting that cursedness improves the efficiency of information transmission. However, this efficiency improvement depends on the richness of the message space. Revisiting the job market signaling experiment by K\"ubler, M\"uller, and Normann (2008), we find evidence consistent with our theory. Finally, we show that cursedness has implications for wage compression in labor markets.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2023

Measuring Higher-Order Rationality with Belief Control

Determining an individual's strategic reasoning capability based solely on choice data is a complex task. This complexity arises because sophisticated players might have non-equilibrium beliefs about others, leading to non-equilibrium actions. In our study, we pair human participants with computer players known to be fully rational. This use of robot players allows us to disentangle limited reasoning capacity from belief formation and social biases. Our results show that, when paired with robots, subjects consistently demonstrate higher levels of rationality and maintain stable rationality levels across different games compared to when paired with humans. This suggests that strategic reasoning might indeed be a consistent trait in individuals. Furthermore, the identified rationality limits could serve as a measure for evaluating an individual's strategic capacity when their beliefs about others are adequately controlled.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2023

A Comparison of Cursed Sequential Equilibrium and Sequential Cursed Equilibrium: Different Concepts of Cursedness in Dynamic Games

Cursed Equilibrium of Eyster and Rabin (2005) has been a leading theory for explaining winner's-curse-type behavior in static Bayesian games, but it faces conceptual limitations when applied to dynamic games. Two recent extensions, Cursed Sequential Equilibrium (CSE) by Fong, Lin and Palfrey (2025) and Sequential Cursed Equilibrium (SCE) by Cohen and Li (2026), address these limitations in fundamentally different ways. Complementing these two papers, this paper provides a systematic comparison of CSE and SCE, clarifying their conceptual foundations and technical implications, including their notions of cursedness, belief updating, and treatment of public histories.

econ.TH↗

arXiv2023

Cursed Sequential Equilibrium

This paper develops a framework to extend the strategic form analysis of cursed equilibrium (CE) developed by Eyster and Rabin (2005) to multi-stage games. The approach uses behavioral strategies rather than normal form mixed strategies, and imposes sequential rationality. We define cursed sequential equilibrium (CSE) and compare it to sequential equilibrium and standard normal-form CE. We provide a general characterization of CSE and establish its properties. We apply CSE to five applications in economics and political science. These applications illustrate a wide range of differences between CSE and Bayesian Nash equilibrium or CE: in signaling games; games with preplay communication; reputation building; sequential voting; and the dirty faces game where higher order beliefs play a key role. A common theme in several of these applications is showing how and why CSE implies systematically different behavior than Bayesian Nash equilibrium in dynamic games of incomplete information with private values, while CE coincides with Bayesian Nash equilibrium for such games.

econ.TH↗

arXiv2022

Cognitive Hierarchies in Multi-Stage Games of Incomplete Information: Theory and Experiment

Sequential equilibrium is the conventional approach for analyzing multi-stage games of incomplete information. It relies on mutual consistency of beliefs. To relax mutual consistency, I theoretically and experimentally explore the dynamic cognitive hierarchy (DCH) solution. One property of DCH is that the solution can vary between two different games sharing the same reduced normal form, i.e., violation of invariance under strategic equivalence. I test this prediction in a laboratory experiment using two strategically equivalent versions of the dirty-faces game. The game parameters are calibrated to maximize the expected difference in behavior between the two versions, as predicted by DCH. The experimental results indicate significant differences in behavior between the two versions, and more importantly, the observed differences align with DCH. This suggests that implementing a dynamic game experiment in reduced normal form (using the "strategy method") could lead to distortions in behavior.

econ.TH↗