arXiv subjects

Qiaomin Xie

Publications and source records attributed to Qiaomin Xie.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Steady-State Convergence of Stochastic Approximation

For constant-stepsize stochastic approximation (SA), the iterates converge in distribution to a stationary law that depends on the stepsize $α.$ Steady-state convergence (SSC) concerns the limit of the scaled stationary distribution as $α\downarrow 0.$ Existing SSC theory requires i.i.d. or additive noise and global differentiability of the mean operator, and yields suboptimal rates. We develop a unified SSC theory for constant-stepsize contractive SA driven by Markovian, multiplicative noise, covering both locally differentiable and locally nondifferentiable mean operators. A key methodological contribution is a multi-step universality framework that progressively reduces the original stochastic recursion to tractable auxiliary dynamics while preserving its steady-state limit. Under local quadratic linearization at the fixed point, we obtain a Gaussian approximation of the scaled steady state at the optimal rate $O(\sqrtα)$ in Wasserstein-2 distance, which further gives finite-time Gaussian approximations for the raw iterates. In the locally nondifferentiable regime, we establish a general SSC result and show that the leading-order asymptotic bias can be of order $\sqrtα$, in contrast to the $α$-order bias in the smooth regime. We apply the theory to Markovian linear SA and asynchronous Q-learning, neither of which is covered by prior results. We further propose a bias-reduction scheme for Q-learning that requires no knowledge of the local smoothness regime, validated by numerical experiments.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2026

Prelimit Coupling and Steady-State Convergence of Constant-stepsize Nonsmooth Contractive SA

Motivated by Q-learning, we study nonsmooth contractive stochastic approximation (SA) with constant stepsize. We focus on two important classes of dynamics: 1) nonsmooth contractive SA with additive noise, and 2) synchronous and asynchronous Q-learning, which features both additive and multiplicative noise. For both dynamics, we establish weak convergence of the iterates to a stationary limit distribution in Wasserstein distance. Furthermore, we propose a prelimit coupling technique for establishing steady-state convergence and characterize the limit of the stationary distribution as the stepsize goes to zero. Using this result, we derive that the asymptotic bias of nonsmooth SA is proportional to the square root of the stepsize, which stands in sharp contrast to smooth SA. This bias characterization allows for the use of Richardson-Romberg extrapolation for bias reduction in nonsmooth SA.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2026

Gaussian Approximation for Multivariate Martingale Sums from Uniformly Ergodic Markov Chains

We develop Gaussian approximation bounds in higher-order Wasserstein distance $W_p$, $p\geq2$, for sums of multivariate martingale differences generated by a uniformly ergodic Markov chain. Under an $L^{(2+η)p}$-moment condition with $η>0$, we establish the explicit bound $$ O\left( p^3 \|A\|_4^2 + pd^{1/4}\|A\|_2^{1/2}\|A\|_4^2 \right) $$ where $A\in\mathbb{R}^n$ collects the $L^{(2+η)p}$-sizes of the $n$ individual martingale increments. In the balanced-increment regime where the individual increments have comparable sizes of order $n^{-1/2}$, it yields the first optimal $O(n^{-1/2})$ Gaussian approximation rate for fixed $p$ and $d$. Consequently, we also obtain the first optimal $O(n^{-1/2})$ $W_p$ Gaussian approximation rate for multivariate additive functionals of uniformly ergodic Markov chains. Our analysis develops two techniques for addressing the interplay between higher-order Wasserstein distance and temporal dependence. First, building on the Ornstein--Uhlenbeck relative-score approach of Fang and Koike (2023), we formulate the bound in terms of antisymmetric Stein couplings while retaining the conditional tensor structure. Second, we develop a refresh-then-maximal coupling that combines an independent first-step resampling, which preserves the desired Stein identity, with a subsequent maximal coupling that provides effective control of the coupling increment. These tools may be useful more broadly for Gaussian approximation under temporal dependence.

math.PR↗

arXiv2026

Lyapunov-Based Sample Complexity Analysis for Weakly-Coupled MDPs

We study the sample complexity of learning in average-reward weakly-coupled Markov decision processes (WCMDPs) and Restless Bandits (RBs) under a generative model. Naive reduction to a tabular MDP leads to high complexity bounds as the state-action space is exponentially large in the number of arms $N$. By exploiting the weakly coupled structure, we show that near-optimal policies can be learned with sample and computational complexities that are polynomial in $N$. Specifically, we analyze the plug-in approach, which applies an efficient planning algorithm to an empirical model estimated from data. For fully heterogeneous WCMDPs, we establish the first finite-sample PAC guarantee with polynomial complexity and an $O(1/\sqrt{N})$ optimality gap. For homogeneous RBs, we further prove that a smaller optimality gap is achievable under mild structural assumptions. A primary technical contribution of our work is a novel Lyapunov-based analysis framework. Unlike classical approaches that rely on the difficult-to-control bias function, our framework uses an explicitly constructed Lyapunov function along with a drift transfer technique between the true and empirical models. A key step of independent interest in our framework is a fine-grained perturbation analysis for the underlying linear programming (LP) relaxation, which provides a general tool for analyzing LP-based policies and weakly-coupled systems.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

On the Peril of (Even a Little) Nonstationarity in Satisficing Regret Minimization

Motivated by the principle of satisficing in decision-making, we study satisficing regret guarantees for nonstationary $K$-armed bandits. We show that in the general realizable, piecewise-stationary setting with $L$ stationary segments, the optimal regret is $Θ(L\log T)$ as long as $L\geq 2$. This stands in sharp contrast to the case of $L=1$ (i.e., the stationary setting), where a $T$-independent $Θ(1)$ satisficing regret is achievable under realizability. In other words, the optimal regret has to scale with $T$ even if just a little nonstationarity presents. A key ingredient in our analysis is a novel Fano-based framework tailored to nonstationary bandits via a \emph{post-interaction reference} construction. This framework strictly extends the classical Fano method for passive estimation as well as recent interactive Fano techniques for stationary bandits. As a complement, we also discuss a special regime in which constant satisficing regret is again possible.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2026

Wasserstein-p Central Limit Theorem Rates: From Local Dependence to Markov Chains

Non-asymptotic central limit theorem (CLT) rates play a central role in modern machine learning and operations research. In this paper, we study CLT rates for multivariate dependent data in Wasserstein-$p$ ($W_p$) distance, for general $p\ge 1$. We focus on two fundamental dependence structures that commonly arise in practice: locally dependent sequences and geometrically ergodic Markov chains. In both settings, we establish the first optimal $\mathcal O(n^{-1/2})$ rate in $W_1$, as well as the first $W_p$ ($p\ge 2$) CLT rates under mild moment assumptions, substantially improving the best previously known bounds in these dependent-data regimes. As an application of our optimal $W_1$ rate for locally dependent sequences, we further obtain the first optimal $W_1$-CLT rate for multivariate $U$-statistics. On the technical side, we derive a tractable auxiliary bound for $W_1$ Gaussian approximation errors that is well suited for studying dependent data. For Markov chains, we further prove that the regeneration time of the split chain associated with a geometrically ergodic chain has a geometric tail without assuming strong aperiodicity or other restrictive conditions. These tools may be of independent interests and enable our optimal $W_1$ rates and underpin our $W_p$ ($p\ge 2$) results.

math.PR↗

arXiv2026

Unichain and Aperiodicity are Sufficient for Asymptotic Optimality of Average-Reward Restless Bandits

We consider the infinite-horizon, average-reward restless bandit problem in discrete time. We propose a new class of policies that are designed to drive a progressively larger subset of arms toward the optimal distribution. We show that our policies are asymptotically optimal with an $O(1/\sqrt{N})$ optimality gap for an $N$-armed problem, assuming only a unichain and aperiodicity assumption. Our approach departs from most existing work that focuses on index or priority policies, which rely on the Global Attractor Property (GAP) to guarantee convergence to the optimum, or a recently developed simulation-based policy, which requires a Synchronization Assumption (SA).

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Predicting Trajectories of Long COVID in Adult Women: The Critical Role of Causal Disentanglement

Early prediction of Post-Acute Sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 severity is a critical challenge for women's health, particularly given the diagnostic overlap between PASC and common hormonal transitions such as menopause. Identifying and accounting for these confounding factors is essential for accurate long-term trajectory prediction. We conducted a retrospective study of 1,155 women (mean age 61) from the NIH RECOVER dataset. By integrating static clinical profiles with four weeks of longitudinal wearable data (monitoring cardiac activity and sleep), we developed a causal network based on a Large Language Model to predict future PASC scores. Our framework achieved a precision of 86.7\% in clinical severity prediction. Our causal attribution analysis demonstrate the model's ability to differentiate between active pathology and baseline noise: direct indicators such as breathlessness and malaise reached maximum saliency (1.00), while confounding factors like menopause and diabetes were successfully suppressed with saliency scores below 0.27.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

LLM-Augmented Computational Phenotyping of Long Covid

Phenotypic characterization is essential for understanding heterogeneity in chronic diseases and for guiding personalized interventions. Long COVID, a complex and persistent condition, yet its clinical subphenotypes remain poorly understood. In this work, we propose an LLM-augmented computational phenotyping framework ``Grace Cycle'' that iteratively integrates hypothesis generation, evidence extraction, and feature refinement to discover clinically meaningful subgroups from longitudinal patient data. The framework identifies three distinct clinical phenotypes, Protected, Responder, and Refractory, based on 13,511 Long Covid participants. These phenotypes exhibit pronounced separation in peak symptom severity, baseline disease burden, and longitudinal dose-response patterns, with strong statistical support across multiple independent dimensions. This study illustrates how large language models can be integrated into a principled, statistically grounded pipeline for phenotypic screening from complex longitudinal data. Note that the proposed framework is disease-agnostic and offers a general approach for discovering clinically interpretable subphenotypes.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

C-kNN-LSH: A Nearest-Neighbor Algorithm for Sequential Counterfactual Inference

Estimating causal effects from longitudinal trajectories is central to understanding the progression of complex conditions and optimizing clinical decision-making, such as comorbidities and long COVID recovery. We introduce \emph{C-kNN--LSH}, a nearest-neighbor framework for sequential causal inference designed to handle such high-dimensional, confounded situations. By utilizing locality-sensitive hashing, we efficiently identify ``clinical twins'' with similar covariate histories, enabling local estimation of conditional treatment effects across evolving disease states. To mitigate bias from irregular sampling and shifting patient recovery profiles, we integrate neighborhood estimator with a doubly-robust correction. Theoretical analysis guarantees our estimator is consistent and second-order robust to nuisance error. Evaluated on a real-world Long COVID cohort with 13,511 participants, \emph{C-kNN-LSH} demonstrates superior performance in capturing recovery heterogeneity and estimating policy values compared to existing baselines.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Immunological Density Shapes Recovery Trajectories in Long COVID

Post-acute sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 infection (Long COVID) frequently persists for months, yet drivers of clinical remission remain incompletely defined. Here we analyzed 97,564 longitudinal PASC assessments from 13,511 participants with linked vaccination histories to disentangle passive temporal progression from vaccine-associated change. Using a clinically validated threshold (PASC $\geq 12$), trajectories separated into three phenotypes: Protected (persistently sub-threshold), Refractory (persistently symptomatic), and Responders (transitioning from symptomatic to recovered). Across the full cohort, symptom severity increased modestly with elapsed time ($r=0.0521$, $P=1.26\times10^{-59}$), whereas cumulative vaccination showed an inverse association with severity ($r=-0.0434$, $P=5.95\times10^{-42}$). In summary, baseline Long COVID severity appears clinically deterministic. In the absence of intervention, symptoms typically persist without spontaneous resolution. Recovery is primarily associated with repeated immunization.

q-bio.OT↗

arXiv2025

Pretraining Decision Transformers with Reward Prediction for In-Context Multi-task Structured Bandit Learning

We study learning to learn for the multi-task structured bandit problem where the goal is to learn a near-optimal algorithm that minimizes cumulative regret. The tasks share a common structure and an algorithm should exploit the shared structure to minimize the cumulative regret for an unseen but related test task. We use a transformer as a decision-making algorithm to learn this shared structure from data collected by a demonstrator on a set of training task instances. Our objective is to devise a training procedure such that the transformer will learn to outperform the demonstrator's learning algorithm on unseen test task instances. Prior work on pretraining decision transformers either requires privileged information like access to optimal arms or cannot outperform the demonstrator. Going beyond these approaches, we introduce a pre-training approach that trains a transformer network to learn a near-optimal policy in-context. This approach leverages the shared structure across tasks, does not require access to optimal actions, and can outperform the demonstrator. We validate these claims over a wide variety of structured bandit problems to show that our proposed solution is general and can quickly identify expected rewards on unseen test tasks to support effective exploration.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Contextual Online Pricing with (Biased) Offline Data

We study contextual online pricing with biased offline data. For the scalar price elasticity case, we identify the instance-dependent quantity $δ^2$ that measures how far the offline data lies from the (unknown) online optimum. We show that the time length $T$, bias bound $V$, size $N$ and dispersion $λ_{\min}(\hatΣ)$ of the offline data, and $δ^2$ jointly determine the statistical complexity. An Optimism-in-the-Face-of-Uncertainty (OFU) policy achieves a minimax-optimal, instance-dependent regret bound $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}\big(d\sqrt{T} \wedge (V^2T + \frac{dT}{λ_{\min}(\hatΣ) + (N \wedge T) δ^2})\big)$. For general price elasticity, we establish a worst-case, minimax-optimal rate $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}\big(d\sqrt{T} \wedge (V^2T + \frac{dT }{λ_{\min}(\hatΣ)})\big)$ and provide a generalized OFU algorithm that attains it. When the bias bound $V$ is unknown, we design a robust variant that always guarantees sub-linear regret and strictly improves on purely online methods whenever the exact bias is small. These results deliver the first tight regret guarantees for contextual pricing in the presence of biased offline data. Our techniques also transfer verbatim to stochastic linear bandits with biased offline data, yielding analogous bounds.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Stable Offline Value Function Learning with Bisimulation-based Representations

In reinforcement learning, offline value function learning is the procedure of using an offline dataset to estimate the expected discounted return from each state when taking actions according to a fixed target policy. The stability of this procedure, i.e., whether it converges to its fixed-point, critically depends on the representations of the state-action pairs. Poorly learned representations can make value function learning unstable, or even divergent. Therefore, it is critical to stabilize value function learning by explicitly shaping the state-action representations. Recently, the class of bisimulation-based algorithms have shown promise in shaping representations for control. However, it is still unclear if this class of methods can \emph{stabilize} value function learning. In this work, we investigate this question and answer it affirmatively. We introduce a bisimulation-based algorithm called kernel representations for offline policy evaluation (\textsc{krope}). \textsc{krope} uses a kernel to shape state-action representations such that state-action pairs that have similar immediate rewards and lead to similar next state-action pairs under the target policy also have similar representations. We show that \textsc{krope}: 1) learns stable representations and 2) leads to lower value error than baselines. Our analysis provides new theoretical insight into the stability properties of bisimulation-based methods and suggests that practitioners can use these methods to improve the stability and accuracy of offline evaluation of reinforcement learning agents.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

A Piecewise Lyapunov Analysis of Sub-quadratic SGD: Applications to Robust and Quantile Regression

Motivated by robust and quantile regression problems, we investigate the stochastic gradient descent (SGD) algorithm for minimizing an objective function $f$ that is locally strongly convex with a sub--quadratic tail. This setting covers many widely used online statistical methods. We introduce a novel piecewise Lyapunov function that enables us to handle functions $f$ with only first-order differentiability, which includes a wide range of popular loss functions such as Huber loss. Leveraging our proposed Lyapunov function, we derive finite-time moment bounds under general diminishing stepsizes, as well as constant stepsizes. We further establish the weak convergence, central limit theorem and bias characterization under constant stepsize, providing the first geometrical convergence result for sub--quadratic SGD. Our results have wide applications, especially in online statistical methods. In particular, we discuss two applications of our results. 1) Online robust regression: We consider a corrupted linear model with sub--exponential covariates and heavy--tailed noise. Our analysis provides convergence rates comparable to those for corrupted models with Gaussian covariates and noise. 2) Online quantile regression: Importantly, our results relax the common assumption in prior work that the conditional density is continuous and provide a more fine-grained analysis for the moment bounds.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2025

Optimally Installing Strict Equilibria

In this work, we develop a reward design framework for installing a desired behavior as a strict equilibrium across standard solution concepts: dominant strategy equilibrium, Nash equilibrium, correlated equilibrium, and coarse correlated equilibrium. We also extend our framework to capture the Markov-perfect equivalents of each solution concept. Central to our framework is a comprehensive mathematical characterization of strictly installable, based on the desired solution concept and the behavior's structure. These characterizations lead to efficient iterative algorithms, which we generalize to handle optimization objectives through linear programming. Finally, we explore how our results generalize to bounded rational agents.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2024

Coupling-based Convergence Diagnostic and Stepsize Scheme for Stochastic Gradient Descent

The convergence behavior of Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD) crucially depends on the stepsize configuration. When using a constant stepsize, the SGD iterates form a Markov chain, enjoying fast convergence during the initial transient phase. However, when reaching stationarity, the iterates oscillate around the optimum without making further progress. In this paper, we study the convergence diagnostics for SGD with constant stepsize, aiming to develop an effective dynamic stepsize scheme. We propose a novel coupling-based convergence diagnostic procedure, which monitors the distance of two coupled SGD iterates for stationarity detection. Our diagnostic statistic is simple and is shown to track the transition from transience stationarity theoretically. We conduct extensive numerical experiments and compare our method against various existing approaches. Our proposed coupling-based stepsize scheme is observed to achieve superior performance across a diverse set of convex and non-convex problems. Moreover, our results demonstrate the robustness of our approach to a wide range of hyperparameters.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Achieving Exponential Asymptotic Optimality in Average-Reward Restless Bandits without Global Attractor Assumption

We consider the infinite-horizon average-reward restless bandit problem. We propose a novel \emph{two-set policy} that maintains two dynamic subsets of arms: one subset of arms has a nearly optimal state distribution and takes actions according to an Optimal Local Control routine; the other subset of arms is driven towards the optimal state distribution and gradually merged into the first subset. We show that our two-set policy is asymptotically optimal with an $O(\exp(-C N))$ optimality gap for an $N$-armed problem, under the mild assumptions of aperiodic-unichain, non-degeneracy, and local stability. Our policy is the first to achieve \emph{exponential asymptotic optimality} under the above set of easy-to-verify assumptions, whereas prior work either requires a strong \emph{global attractor} assumption or only achieves an $O(1/\sqrt{N})$ optimality gap. We further discuss obstacles in weakening the assumptions by demonstrating examples where exponential asymptotic optimality is not achievable when any of the three assumptions is violated. Notably, we prove a lower bound for a large class of locally unstable restless bandits, showing that local stability is particularly fundamental for exponential asymptotic optimality. Finally, we use simulations to demonstrate that the two-set policy outperforms previous policies on certain RB problems and performs competitively overall.

cs.LG↗